Future Demand
4
Future Demand
4.1 Factors Affecting Demand
There are a number of other factors that influence demand for the wastewater asset within the Taupo District. These include: • • • Growth in development and therefore population Community expectations Tourism
These are described in further detail below. 4.1.1 GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY In June 2006 Taupo District Council adopted a district wide growth management strategy – “Taupo District 2050” (TD2050) is the Taupo District’s 50 year growth strategy. This strategy gives council, developers and the community a clear guideline on the future direction growth will take in the district. The District has experienced rapid growth in recent years with a further 6,800 new residential lots anticipated by 2026. This equates to a 40% increase in the number of residential lots within the District. Although the actual population increase is less than the major metropolitan centres experience, this percentage change signals the substantial challenges facing the District. TD2050 was developed to better align the District’s land use planning with the Council’s asset management planning and funding mechanisms such as the Development Contributions Policy. It provides a clear direction for the future land use pattern enabling Council’s asset management planning to ensure that infrastructure is provided in a timely and affordable manner. From an infrastructure perspective TD2050 aims to provide the foundations for an urban form that will be sustainable in the long term. In the northern area TD2050 focuses on the connection of Kinloch and Taupo town via the West Kinloch Arterial (WeKA) roading corridor. This will substantially reduce travelling times and make public transportation between the two urban areas more economically viable. In addition, the development of a new growth area in the Mapara Valley between Kinloch and Taupo will further assist in making sustainable public transport a reality. This will have a significant impact on the water supply to this area. TD2050 identifies future residential areas (shaded yellow) and those areas where there needs to be further structure planning before growth can occur (shaded red). The growth areas are shown on the following maps.
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
Page 4-1
Future Demand
Figure 4.1 - Northern Growth Area
Figure 4.2 - Southern Growth Area
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
Page 4-2
Future Demand
Figure 4.3 - Southern Eastern Growth Area
Figure 4.4 - Southern Western Growth Area
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
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Future Demand
4.1.2 GROWTH MODEL
TD2050 provides high level growth projections over large growth areas. For asset management planning it is necessary to have these growth projections in a much more defined area and to have them by year, rather than a 10 year total.
A growth model has been in place since 1 July 2004 when TDC adopted the Development Contributions Policy; however, the adoption of TD2050 necessitated the updating of this model. Currently, the model has been updated to provide for a more current growth assessment for the 2009 to 2019 LTCC planning period. The growth model has been developed in order to predict growth throughout the district and is expressed in Household Equivalent Units (HEU) of demand. This information is firstly split between residential and non-residential growth and then by activity (e.g. water, wastewater etc). The model predicts growth over a 35 year period. In the growth model, a HEU is defined as being equivalent to one “average” household unit. It was recognised that household units vary throughout the district and that the demands they generate also cover a broad range. However, given the relatively large size of development contribution areas and the implied averaging, the approach was considered appropriate as well as being consistent with the level of detail recognised by the growth model itself. The Taupo District Council Growth Model 2008 – 2044 for wastewater is illustrated in the next page. 4.1.3 GROWTH AREAS The following areas are those highlighted in yellow in TD2050 as being ready to develop. The development of these areas will result in both capital projects and increased operational costs. Each of these areas is discussed in detail below. Taupo Town TAUPO URBAN STRUCTURE PLAN (TUSP 2004) The first ten years of growth within Taupo Town have been split into four main growth areas. After the first ten years the development patterns are less well known so the lot creation is only given for Taupo Town and not split. The four main growth areas are. • Taupo North o Nukuhau/Brentwood o Poihipi/Huka Falls o Infill/other o Taupo South
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
Page 4-4
Future Demand
WASTEWATER
Financial Year ENDING Total Residential properties per year Cumulative
2008 207 2009 163 2010 140 2011 190
Taupo District Growth Model 2008 - 2044
2012 190 2013 255 2014 285 2015 349 2016 285 2017 300 2018 300 2019 361 2020 466 2021 364 2022 364 2023 364 2024 364 2025 344 2026 344 2027 290 2028 290 2029 285 2030 277 2031 181 2032 181 2033 181 2034 181 2035 152 2036 152 2037 151 2038 151 2039 151 2040 151 2041 151 2042 151 2043 2044 150 147
207 Vacant Lots with Right to Connect July 2007 Total Lots July 2007 (connecte d and with right to connect)
370
510
700
890
1145
1430
1779
2064
2364
2664
3025
3491
3855
4219
4583
4947
5291
5635
5925
6215
6501
6778
6959
7139
7320
7501
7652
7804
7955
8105
8256
8407
8558
8708
8858 9005
RESIDENTIAL AREA
2009-2019 LTCCP Period
Taupo South Nukehau/Brentwood Poihipi/Huka Falls Taupo Town Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Acacia Bay (including lower Mapara Rd) Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Kinloch Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Mapara Valley Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Five Mile Bay/Waitahanui Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Turangi Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Motuoapa Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Pukawa/Omori Kuratau Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Whareroa Total Lots Created Building Consents Issued Commercial Accommodation HEU Taupo Non Residential HEU Taupo Kinloch Mapara Valley Turangi 0 1,236
10 0
Totals
175 6 3 3 187 165 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 6 3 3 92 142 80 4 2 2 88 142 80 4 2 2 88 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 75 4 2 2 83 142 3,892 5,527
490 190 147
3,006 1,785 5,312
0 25 25 15 65 165
0 20 45 15 80 165
0 35 50 15 100 165
50 35 70 15 170 165
40 35 80 15 170 165
90 15 50 15 170 165
130 20 40 15 205 165
90 10 50 15 165 165
60 20 40 15 135 165
40 18 50 9 117 165
175 6 3 3 187 165
161
820
0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 0 25 55 25 91 25 120 25 35 25 35 25 65 25 70 20 40 20 40 20 40 20 40 20 20 20 20 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 12 20 883 800
403
970
94 18 70 18 5 18 5 18 5 18 50 18 10 18 53 18 0 18 69 18 24 18 30 18 25 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 8 20 650 716
0
0
0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 200 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 143 65 58 65 58 65 58 65 58 65 29 65 29 65 28 65 28 65 28 65 28 65 28 65 28 65 27 65 27 65 2,142 1,692
24
333
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 25 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 259 0
217
2,121
35 25 5 25 10 25 5 25 5 25 5 25 5 25 30 25 20 25 17 25 17 25 17 25 17 10 17 10 17 10 17 10 17 10 17 10 17 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 6 10 392 550
208
539
0 4 0 4 0 8 8 14 0 4 10 15 25 14 0 4 0 10 10 14 0 4 10 0 10 14 0 4 0 10 10 14 0 4 10 0 10 14 0 4 0 10 10 14 0 4 10 0 10 14 0 4 9 20 29 14 0 4 9 20 29 14 0 4 9 20 29 14 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 9 20 29 10 10 5 3 4 7 10 10 5 3 4 7 10 10 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 2 5 3 4 7 10 526 417 131 173
80
1,165
5 8 13 14
67
193
0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 20 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 130 58
NB - This is HEU, not lots.
10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 190
2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
8.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
8.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
13.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
13.4 0.4 1.0 0.0
4.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
8.1 0.4 1.0 0.0
8.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
14.6 0.4 1.0 0.0
14.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
8.1 0.4 1.0 0.0
8.1 0.4 0.0 2.7
8.1 0.4 1.0 2.0
7.0 0.4 0.0 2.0
7.0 0.4 1.9 2.0
7.0 0.4 0.0 2.0
7.0 0.4 0.5 2.0
7.0 0.4 0.0 2.0
4.3 0.2 0.5 2.0
4.3 0.2 0.0 2.0
4.3 0.2 0.5 2.0
4.3 0.2 0.0 2.0
2.8 0.1 0.5 0.8
2.8 0.1 0.0 0.8
2.8 0.1 0.5 0.8
2.8 0.1 0.0 0.8
2.8 0.1 0.5 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
193 10 10 29
Table 4.1 – Taupo Growth Model 2008 to 2044
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
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Future Demand
Taupo Wastewater Treatment Demand
12500 12000 11500 11000
m 3/day
10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000
C
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Demand Existing Capacity
10168 10248 10348 10518 10688 10858 11063 11228 11363 11480 11667 11854 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 9500 Year
Figure 4.5 - Treatment Capacity in Taupo
Acacia Bay Wastewater Treatment Demand
2000
1500
m 3/day
1000
500
0
2008 Demand Existing Capacity 820 1400
2009 820 1400
2010 820 1400
2011 820 1400
2012 820 1400
2013 820 1400
2014 875 1400
2015 966 1400
2016 1086 1400
2017 1121 1400
2018 1156 1400
2019 1221 1400
Year
Figure 4.6 - Treatment Capacity in Acacia Bay
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
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Future Demand
Kinloch Wastewater Treatment Demand
3000
2500
2000
m 3/day
1500
1000
500
0
2008 1064 2000
2009 1134 2000
2010 1139 2000
2011 1144 2000
2012 1149 2000
2013 1199 2000
2014 1209 2000
2015 1262 2000
2016 1262 2000
2017 1331 2000
2018 1355 2000
2019 1385 2000
Demand Existing Capacity
Year
Figure 4.7 - Treatment Capacity in Kinloch
Turangi Wastewater Treatment Demand
3000
2500
2000
m 3/day
1500
1000
500
0
2008 2156 2400
2009 2161 2400
2010 2171 2400
2011 2176 2400
2012 2181 2400
2013 2186 2400
2014 2191 2400
2015 2221 2400
2016 2241 2400
2017 2258 2400
2018 2275 2400
2019 2292 2400
Demand Existing Capacity
Year
Figure 4.8 - Treatment Capacity in Turangi
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
Page 4-7
Future Demand
Omori/Kuratau/Pukawa Wastewater Treatment Demand
2000
1500
m 3/day
1000
500
0
2008 Demand Existing Capacity 1178 1200
2009 1186 1200
2010 1211 1200
2011 1221 1200
2012 1231 1200
2013 1241 1200
2014 1251 1200
2015 1261 1200
2016 1271 1200
2017 1300 1200
2018 1329 1200
2019 1358 1200
Year
Figure 4.9 - Treatment Capacity in Omori/Kuratau/Pukawa
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
Page 4-8
Future Demand
4.1.4
COMMUNITY EXPECTATIONS
Customer opinion is gauged on an ongoing basis as part of council’s strategy of increased consultation. The results of previous consultation has been adopted in this WWAMP and future plans will include relevant changes based on up to date information and changing community expectations and customer requirements. 4.1.5
TOURISM
The effect of tourism is to increase the population and perceived growth over short periods. The 2006 census indicated that the Taupo District had a population of 32,418. However, the number of people staying in the Taupo district during the peak tourism season of the Christmas/New Year school holiday period has been estimated to be 1.68 times that number. Peak population for an average day in the month of January was calculated to be 59,305 as shown in Table 4.11. (Taken from TDC Best Guesses 2005 – 2015 Published July 2005)
2006 census usually resident population (2.7 people per occupied dwelling) 2006 census unoccupied dwellings (5586 unoccupied dwellings times 2.68 people per dwelling) January 2005 APR telephone survey of 400 residents (111,338 visitor nights in private accommodation (visiting friends and family) = about 3721 extra people staying with friends and family on any given night in January January 2005 Commercial Accommodation Monitor = approximately 144,105 visitor guest nights in commercial accommodation = about 4649 extra people staying in commercial accommodation on any given night in January Number of new dwellings built since March 2001 = 1323 at an average occupancy in January of 2.68 people per dwelling = 3546 = a grand total of 59,305 people during the peak month of January 32,418 14,971 3,721
4,649
3,546 59,305
Table 4.11 Peak Population Assessment
Taupo District Council Version May 2009
Asset Management Plan Wastewater
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