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					                                                                                                                www.kimeng.co.th


                                                                                                                KELIVE
                                                                                                             R E S E A R C H


                                                                                                             January 13, 2004



Siam City bank Plc. (SCIB)                                                                    NEW     :                     BUY
                                                                                              PREVIOUS :                    -

BANKING                             Very impressive performance for first bank to announce 2003
                                    results
                                  Siam City Bank (SCIB) was the first bank to announce its full-year 2003 results yesterday
                                  and the bank didn't disappoint. SCIB's bottom line exceeded market expectations, rising
                                  309% yoy to Bt3.6bn. This was due to an extra interest payment from a major debtor (TPI),
Price                     Bt24.10 a small additional provision in 4Q03 and lower cost of funds.
Target                    Bt28.60 However, SCIB's book value per share declined from Bt16.72 at the end of September to
                                    Bt15.44 in December. This was due to a mark down in its capital account of its surplus on
                                    investment portfolio. We believe other banks will also need to make a similar mark down
                                    from the decrease in market value in the bond market in the quarter.

                                    We have turned more positive on SCIB shares this year due to the following factors:

                                    1)   SCIB is targeting aggressive loan growth in 2004. Excluding AMC notes, total loans
                                         are projected to increase 30% or by Bt50-60bn.

                                    2)   SCIB's strategy is to further develop into a universal bank, in line with the financial
                                         sector master plan.

                                    3)   There is the possibility of an early dividend payment in March 2004. Assuming a 40-
                                         50% dividend payout ratio, we estimate dividends of Bt0.72 per share, representing a
                                         dividend yield of 2.98% at the current share price.

                                    4)   SCIB still has relatively low NPLs and sufficient loan loss reserve.

                                    5)   Our projected 2004 net interest margin (NIM) has been increased to 2.27% due to
                                         lower cost of funds, aggressive loan growth and increasing asset yields from converting
                                         its AMC notes into actual loans.

                                    6)   We are forecasting SCIB to record earnings growth this year of 34% to Bt4.8bn.
Analyst: Mek Meksarikul
Tel : 0-2658-6300 Ext               Given on the expected higher profitability and attractive share price, we reiterate our BUY
1560
E-mail:
                                    recommendation on SCIB. We believe SCIB shares should trade around 1.7x projected
mek.m@kimeng.co.th                  2004 book value, or approximately Bt28.60 per share.




                                                                                                   Kim Eng Securities
SCIB                                                                                           January 13, 2004



       Figure : SCIB earnings summary
       FYE: Dec                                2001              2002        2003      2004F      2005F
       PPP (Btmn)                             40,934             4,924       7,612      9,492      9,813
       Net profit (Btmn)                      38,075               882       3,606      4,833      5,115
       PPP/share                               19.86              2.33        3.60       4.49       4.64
       EPS (Bt)                                14.98              0.54        1.71       2.29       2.42
       BVPS (Bt)                                9.03             16.53       15.44      16.82      18.27
       DPS                                         -              0.20        0.72       1.04       1.10
       P/PPP (x)                                1.21             10.34        6.69       5.36       5.19
       PER (x)                                  1.61             44.63       14.12      10.54       9.95
       PBV (x)                                  2.67              1.46        1.56       1.43       1.32
       Dividend yield                              -            0.83%       2.98%      4.31%      4.57%
       ROE                                   476.4%              3.3%       10.7%      14.2%      13.8%
       ROA                                    13.7%              0.2%        0.8%       1.0%       1.0%
       Source: SCIB (historic), KELIVE (forecast)


       Figure : SCIB Income Statement
                                                        2,001       2,002    2,003    2004F      2005F
       Total interest & dividend income                11,060      16,501   17,077    19,425     20,173
       Interest expense                                 9,074      10,674    8,356     8,617      9,010
       Net interest & dividend income                   1,985       5,827    8,722    10,808     11,164
       Non-interest income                             45,267       4,216    5,724     4,886      5,027
       Non-interest expenses                            6,318       5,119    6,834     6,203      6,377
       Pre-provisioning profit (PPP)                   40,934       4,924    7,612     9,492      9,813
       Provisions                                      -2,843      -4,041   -3,822    -4,000     -4,000
       Net profit                                      38,075         882    3,606     4,833      5,115
       EPS                                              14.98        0.54     1.71      2.29       2.42
       Source: SCIB (historic), KELIVE (forecast)

       Figure : SCIB balance sheet
                                                      2,001        2,002      2,003    2004F       2005F
       Investment - net                              51,005       92,665    102,545   106,571     113,292
       Loans - net                                  207,977      327,684    313,760   309,924     311,123
       Total assets                                 297,791      486,169    469,406   484,833     496,281
       Deposit                                      262,151      422,549    406,862   422,323     448,507
       Total liabilities                            279,176      451,235    436,774   448,879     476,363
       Paid-up capital                               10,564       21,128     21,128    21,128      21,128
       Shareholders' equity                          18,614       34,934     32,632    35,532      38,601
       Source: SCIB (historic), KELIVE (forecast)


       Figure : SCIB ratio analysis and forecast assumptions
                                                      2,001   2,002  2003F  2004F 2005F
       Net Profit Growth                          -622.68% -97.68% 308.97% 34.01% 5.84%
       EPS Growth                                 -523.94% -96.40% 216.09% 34.01% 5.84%
       Net Interest Margin                           0.72%   1.49%   1.83%  2.27% 2.28%
       Loans to Deposits                            79.93% 77.34% 79.22% 75.18% 71.85%
       Loan Growth                                  -4.93% 55.96%   -1.36% -1.50% 1.50%
       Deposit growth                               12.56% 61.19%   -3.71%  3.80% 6.20%
       Non-Interest income growth                 4634.27% -90.69% 35.77% -14.64% 2.88%
       Operating expense growth                    -13.92% -18.98% 33.50% -9.24% 2.82%
       Provision growth                           3030.58% 42.15%   -5.41%  4.66% 0.00%
       Loans/funding                                76.49% 75.16% 91.90% 91.90% 91.90%
       PPP/share (Bt)                                 19.86    2.33    3.60   4.49  4.64
       BVPS (Bt)                                       9.03   16.53   15.44  16.82 18.27
       ROE %                                       476.43%   3.29% 10.68% 14.18% 13.80%
       ROA %                                        13.71%   0.22%   0.75%  1.01% 1.02%
       Source: SCIB (historic), KELIVE (forecast)


                                                                                         Kim Eng Securities
2
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                                                                                                                                            KELIVE
                                                                                                                                         R E S E A R C H




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  Telephone: 603 2141 1555                                                                                                  Facsimile: 66 2 658 6384
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This research report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of
any specific person who may receive this report. The information contained herein is provided on the basis of information received or provided to us, but its
completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and no part of this publication is to be
construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments whether referred to therein or otherwise. We do not accept
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interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.




                                                                                                                          Kim Eng Securities

				
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