Docstoc

Cruise Baltic Status Report

Document Sample
Cruise Baltic Status Report Powered By Docstoc
					Cruise Baltic
Cruise Baltic Status Report
Final

January 2007
                                  Cruise Baltic
                                  Cruise Baltic Status Report
                                  Final

                                  January 2007




Dokument nr.     p-64283-a-1
Revision nr.     1
Udgivelsesdato   January 2007
Udarbejdet       TOD, MTB, JOHR
Kontrolleret     MTB
Godkendt         MTB
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        1




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                         2




                                         Table of contents
                                         1               Summary                                                                    6

                                         2               Introduction                                                              7
                                         2.1             Purpose                                                                   7
                                         2.2             Contents                                                                  7

                                         3               Overview of the cruise sector                                              8
                                         3.1             The global cruise industry                                                 8
                                         3.2             Cruises visiting Cruise Baltic member cities                              15
                                         3.3             SWOT analysis                                                             19

                                         4               Impact of the cruise sector on the Baltic Sea
                                                         region                                                                    24
                                         4.1             Economic impact                                                           24
                                         4.2             Environmental impact                                                      28
                                         4.3             Social impact                                                             32

                                         5               Copenhagen                                                                34
                                         5.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         34
                                         5.2             Economic impact                                                           36
                                         5.3             Environmental impact                                                      38
                                         5.4             Social impact                                                             38

                                         6               Elsinore/Helsingborg                                                      41
                                         6.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         42
                                         6.2             Economic impact                                                           43
                                         6.3             Environmental impact                                                      45
                                         6.4             Social impact                                                             46

                                         7               Gdynia                                                                    49
                                         7.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         49
                                         7.2             Economic impact                                                           51


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                         3



                                         7.3             Environmental impact                                                      52
                                         7.4             Social impact                                                             53

                                         8               Göteborg                                                                  56
                                         8.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         56
                                         8.2             Economic impact                                                           58
                                         8.3             Environmental impact                                                      60
                                         8.4             Social impact                                                             60

                                         9               Helsinki                                                                  63
                                         9.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         63
                                         9.2             Economic impact                                                           65
                                         9.3             Environmental impact                                                      67
                                         9.4             Social impact                                                             67

                                         10              Kalmar                                                                    70
                                         10.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         70
                                         10.2            Economic impact                                                           72
                                         10.3            Environmental impact                                                      73
                                         10.4            Social impact                                                             74

                                         11              Karlskrona                                                                77
                                         11.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         77
                                         11.2            Economic impact                                                           79
                                         11.3            Environmental impact                                                      81
                                         11.4            Social impact                                                             81

                                         12              Klaipeda                                                                  84
                                         12.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         84
                                         12.2            Economic impact                                                           86
                                         12.3            Environmental impact                                                      87
                                         12.4            Social impact                                                             88

                                         13              Malmö                                                                     91
                                         13.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         91
                                         13.2            Economic impact                                                           92
                                         13.3            Environmental impact                                                      94
                                         13.4            Social impact                                                             95

                                         14              Mariehamn                                                                 97
                                         14.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         97
                                         14.2            Economic impact                                                           99



\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                          4



                                         14.3            Environmental impact                                                      101
                                         14.4            Social impact                                                             101

                                         15              Oslo                                                                      103
                                         15.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         103
                                         15.2            Economic impact                                                           105
                                         15.3            Environmental impact                                                      106
                                         15.4            Social impact                                                             107

                                         16              Riga                                                                      109
                                         16.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         109
                                         16.2            Economic impact                                                           111
                                         16.3            Environmental impact                                                      112
                                         16.4            Social impact                                                             113

                                         17              Rostock                                                                   115
                                         17.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         115
                                         17.2            Economic impact                                                           117
                                         17.3            Environmental impact                                                      119
                                         17.4            Social impact                                                             119

                                         18              Rønne                                                                     122
                                         18.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         122
                                         18.2            Economic impact                                                           124
                                         18.3            Environmental impact                                                      125
                                         18.4            Social impact                                                             126

                                         19              St. Petersburg                                                            128
                                         19.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         128
                                         19.2            Economic impact                                                           130
                                         19.3            Environmental impact                                                      132
                                         19.4            Social impact                                                             132

                                         20              Stockholm                                                                 135
                                         20.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         135
                                         20.2            Economic impact                                                           137
                                         20.3            Environmental impact                                                      139
                                         20.4            Social impact                                                             139

                                         21              Tallinn                                                                   142
                                         21.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         142
                                         21.2            Economic impact                                                           144



\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                          5



                                         21.3            Environmental impact                                                      145
                                         21.4            Social impact                                                             146

                                         22              Turku                                                                     149
                                         22.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         149
                                         22.2            Economic impact                                                           151
                                         22.3            Environmental impact                                                      153
                                         22.4            Social impact                                                             153

                                         23              Visby                                                                     155
                                         23.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds                                         155
                                         23.2            Economic impact                                                           157
                                         23.3            Environmental impact                                                      158
                                         23.4            Social impact                                                             159

                                         24              References                                                                161




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        6




                                         1               Summary
                                         The key findings of the status report are:

                                         •       During the period of the Cruise Baltic project, the number of cruise visitors
                                                 to the Baltic Sea region has increased significantly. The growth in passen-
                                                 gers to Cruise Baltic member cities from 2004 to 2006 has been 28%.
                                         •       One of the goals of the Baltic Cruise Project was to guarantee a 20%
                                                 growth in the number of cruise passengers visiting the Baltic Sea Region
                                                 from 2004-2007. This goal has accordingly already been met after the first
                                                 two years of the project period.
                                         •       The growth rates of the Baltic Sea region are higher than the growth rates
                                                 of other cruise markets
                                         •       The market share of the Cruise Baltic member cities has increased over the
                                                 years. From 2004 to 2005 the growth in the market share was 12% (no data
                                                 available for the other cruise markets for 2006).
                                         •       A second goal of the Baltic Cruise Project was to obtain a 4% growth of
                                                 the Baltic Sea Region's share of the global cruise market. The increase in
                                                 the market share of the Cruise Baltic member cities exceeds this by far.
                                         •       The cruise industry generates in total a direct and indirect turnover of be-
                                                 tween 343 and 443 million € in the 19 Cruise Baltic member cities.
                                         •       The cruise industry generates between 5,500 and 11,500 jobs in the 19
                                                 Cruise Baltic member cities.
                                         •       The members of Cruise Baltic consider close cooperation between the
                                                 ports via the "Cruise Baltic" network as an important means to exploit the
                                                 large potential for achieving continued growth in the years ahead.
                                         •       The environmental impact in the form of fuel consumption and emissions
                                                 to air per passenger has declined and will most likely continue to decline
                                                 due to more fuel-efficient ships and tighter environmental regulation. The
                                                 total impact will, however, most likely increase over the coming years due
                                                 to increased activity.
                                         •       Increased activity in the cruise industry may lead to reduced rates of un-
                                                 employment among the groups who have most difficulty in finding jobs.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        7




                                         2               Introduction
                                         Cruise Baltic is a co-operation forum among 10 countries, 19 destinations
                                         and 35 partners in the Baltic Sea Region.

                                         The aim of the cooperation is to exchange knowledge and information, to de-
                                         velop joint standards and to develop and promote the Baltic Sea Region as a
                                         cruise destination.

                                         The Cruise Baltic organization is partly financed by the BSR INTERREG III B
                                         programme.


                                         2.1             Purpose
                                         The purpose of this study is to provide a status report on the cruise sector de-
                                         velopment effects in the Baltic area as specified in the application for
                                         INTERREG funding.


                                         2.2             Contents
                                         Chapter 3 provides an overview of the global cruise sector and development of
                                         the Baltic Sea Region as a cruise destination, including the results of a SWOT
                                         analysis for the Baltic Sea Region.

                                         The economic, environmental and social impacts of the cruise sector in the 10
                                         countries are assessed in chapter 4.

                                         Chapters 5-22 present the assessment of each of the ports/cities involved in
                                         Cruise Baltic project.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        8




                                         3               Overview of the cruise sector


                                                    What is a cruise?
                                                    A Cruise is a voyage of at least 60 hours by a seagoing vessel,
                                                    mainly for pleasure. No cargo/rolling stock will be transported but
                                                    only passengers with tickets that should include accommodation
                                                    and all meals. The Cruise voyage must include at least two visit-
                                                    ing ports apart from the starting and ending port.




                                                    Terminology
                                                    When a ship enters a port, it "calls". The number of calls in a port
                                                    is hence the number of ships visiting that port. A call is called a
                                                    turnaround, if the passengers leave the ship at the port and new
                                                    passengers board the ship.
                                                    A cruise tourist is a person buying a cruise trip. A cruise includes
                                                    visits to several cities/ports; each time the tourist is counted as a
                                                    passenger in that city/port. If the cruise tourist stays on the ship
                                                    for 7 nights and visits 5 cities/ports, he or she is counted as 1 tour-
                                                    ist, but 5 passengers with 7 bed-days (on board the ship).




                                         3.1             The global cruise industry
                                         The number of cruise tourists has increased rapidly in recent years.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                9



                                         Table 3.1               Growth of the Cruise Industry

                                           Year                                                                Number of cruise tourists worldwide (million)


                                           1970                                                                                                         0.5
                                           1998                                                                                                         9.5
                                           2004                                                                                                        13.4
                                           2010                                                                                            20-22 (estimate)
                                         Source: The center for environmental leadership in business: A SHIFTING TIDE-
                                         ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES &CRUISE INDUSTRY RESPONSES and THE FUTURE OF
                                         CRUISING - BOOM OR BUST?, A WORLDWIDE ANALYSIS TO 2015. Estimate for 2010 by COWI.



                                         On the basis of historical trends, it is estimated the total number of cruise tour-
                                         ists worldwide will reach 20-22 million in 2010. This estimate is considerably
                                         higher than that estimate of 14 million cruise tourists in 2010 presented in the
                                         report A shifting tide - Environmental challenges & cruise industry responses.

                                         From 1970 to 2010 the number of cruise tourists is expected to grow by more
                                         than factor 30.

                                         There are cruise destinations around the world, including "Cruise to Nowhere"
                                         (see below).

                                         Figure 3.1              Many possibilities to go on a cruise




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               10



                                         The development from 2001 to 2005 is shown in the figure below.

                                         Figure 3.2                   Development in the cruise industry 2001-2005

                                                                 16

                                                                 14                                                                       Others
                                                                 12
                                                                                                                                          Asia and
                                               Cruise tourists


                                                                 10
                                                                                                                                          Australia
                                                                 8
                                                                                                                                          Continental
                                                                 6                                                                        Europe

                                                                 4                                                                        United
                                                                                                                                          Kingdom
                                                                 2

                                                                  -                                                                       North
                                                                                                                                          America
                                                                      2001       2002            2003            2004          2005 est



                                         Source: THE FUTURE OF CRUISING - BOOM OR BUST? A WORLDWIDE ANALYSIS TO
                                         2015.

                                         The largest cruise area is North America where destinations to the Caribbean
                                         Islands dominate. Continental Europe, including the Baltic Sea, has a market
                                         share of 13%1, but is the fastest growing of the five cruise markets under con-
                                         sideration.

                                         To be able to compare Cruise Baltic with other cruise markets we need an esti-
                                         mate of the number of cruise tourists in the Cruise Baltic member cities. These
                                         figures are not available. We have, therefore, looked at cruise line offers and
                                         itineraries and concluded that it is fair to assume that each tourist visits 5 cities
                                         per cruise on average. As the Cruise Baltic member cities had 2.3 million pas-
                                         sengers in 2006, we estimate that about 452,000 cruise tourists visited the
                                         Cruise Baltic area in 2006.2 The corresponding figures for 2005 are 2.2 million
                                         passengers and 423,000 cruise tourists.

                                         This means that most cruise tourists in the Cruise Baltic area (in 2006 399,000
                                         tourists) visit Copenhagen. On the basis of the assumption that each tourist vis-
                                         its 5 cities on average it can be estimated that an additional 53,000 tourists3
                                         visit St. Petersburg, Stockholm and/or Helsinki, but do not visit Copenhagen.

                                         The resulting numbers are shown in the figure below.



                                         1
                                           2005 figure, as 2006 figures are not available for other destinaitons than Baltic Sea.
                                         2
                                           2.3 million passengers divided by 5.
                                         3
                                           452,000 minus 399,000.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    11



                                         Figure 3.3              Cruise tourists in the Cruise Baltic member cities, 2001-2006

                                             500,000

                                             450,000

                                             400,000

                                             350,000
                                             300,000

                                             250,000

                                             200,000

                                             150,000
                                             100,000

                                               50,000

                                                       0
                                                                 2001               2002               2003               2004   2005   2006


                                         Note: Estimated on the basis of figures for total passengers divided by 5, as it is assumed that tourists
                                         visit 5 cities per cruise on average.

                                         The figure below shows that the number of cruise tourists in the Cruise Baltic
                                         member cities is growing even faster than the cruise industry of Continental
                                         Europe (based on 2005 figures as data for 2006 are only available for Cruise
                                         Baltic).




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC              .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                                                                         12



                                         Figure 3.4                                         Yearly growth in cruise tourists from 2001-2005




                                               Yearly growth rate from 2001 to 2005
                                                                                      20%


                                                                                      15%


                                                                                      10%


                                                                                      5%


                                                                                      0%


                                                                                      -5%




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Total
                                                                                              North America




                                                                                                                                                                              Asia and Australia
                                                                                                                               Continental Europe including
                                                                                                              United Kingdom




                                                                                                                                                              Cruise Baltic




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Others
                                                                                                                                      Cruise Baltic




                                         Source: Seatrade and own estimations.

                                         The annual growth in the number of cruise tourists of Continental Europe (in-
                                         cluding Cruise Baltic members) has been 14% from 2001-2005 whereas the
                                         other cruise markets have grown by less than 10%. The annual growth in the
                                         Cruise Baltic member cities was 16.5% in the period. This implies that both
                                         Continental Europe, but especially Cruise Baltic ports have increased market
                                         shares over the period.

                                         From 2001-2006 the annual growth in the Cruise Baltic member cities has been
                                         14.6%, which reflects a lower growth rate from 2005-2006 compared to what
                                         was seen from 2001-2005.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                                                                                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      13



                                         Figure 3.5              Market shares of the Cruse Baltic member cities (share of cruise tour-
                                                                 ists)

                                              3.5%


                                              3.0%


                                              2.5%


                                              2.0%


                                              1.5%


                                              1.0%


                                              0.5%


                                              0.0%
                                                               2001                    2002                    2003            2004   2005 est




                                         Source: Seatrade and own estimations.

                                         The market share for Cruise Baltic member cities has grown over the years.
                                         From 2004 to 2005 the growth was 12%.

                                         The main driver for growth in both transport and tourism in general is eco-
                                         nomic growth. Since economic growth is expected to be positive in the future,
                                         the cruise industry is expected to continue its growth in the years ahead.

                                         The fleet
                                         As shown in the figures above, the global cruise industry is characterized by
                                         rapid growth in the last decade. The total passenger capacity of the fleet has
                                         increased from 141,800 in 1995 to 337,300 in 2005 equivalent to an annual
                                         growth rate of 9.0%4.

                                         Growth is expected to continue in the coming years. It is estimated that passen-
                                         ger capacity will reach around 425,000 in 2010, as indicated below.




                                         4
                                             Source: MSR-Consult & Lloyd's Register Fairplay.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                                            14



                                         Figure 3.6                  Estimated Passenger Capacity in thousands by size category

                                            450

                                            400

                                            350

                                            300

                                            250

                                            200

                                            150

                                            100

                                             50

                                               0
                                                     1995

                                                              1996

                                                                       1997

                                                                               1998

                                                                                       1999

                                                                                               2000

                                                                                                       2001

                                                                                                               2002

                                                                                                                       2003

                                                                                                                               2004

                                                                                                                                       2005

                                                                                                                                              2006

                                                                                                                                                     2007

                                                                                                                                                            2008

                                                                                                                                                                     2009

                                                                                                                                                                                2010
                                                                Small                  Medium                   Large                  Very Large                  Total Fleet




                                         Note: Small (2-10 tGT), Medium (10-30tGT), Large (30-100 tGT), and Very Large (100+ tGT).
                                         Source: MSR-Consult & Lloyd's Register Fairplay

                                         The whole fleet has grown from 243 in 1995 to 312 ships in 2005. It is fore-
                                         casted to grow to 342 in 2010.

                                         Capacity has increased and will continue to do so, both because the total num-
                                         ber of ships has increased, and because the average size of each ship has in-
                                         creased and will continue to do so.

                                         Figure 3.7                  Average size - No. of passengers per ship

                                            1400


                                            1200


                                            1000


                                             800


                                             600


                                             400


                                             200


                                                 0
                                                       1995

                                                                1996

                                                                        1997

                                                                                1998

                                                                                        1999

                                                                                                2000

                                                                                                        2001

                                                                                                                2002

                                                                                                                        2003

                                                                                                                                2004

                                                                                                                                       2005

                                                                                                                                              2006

                                                                                                                                                     2007

                                                                                                                                                            2008

                                                                                                                                                                     2009

                                                                                                                                                                                2010




                                         Source: MSR-Consult & Lloyd's Register Fairplay




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                                                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        15



                                         The average ship size in 1995 was 583 passengers/ship. It is expected to in-
                                         crease to 1,262 passengers/ship in 2010.

                                         The world's biggest cruise ship, the "Freedom of the Seas", can take up to 4,375
                                         passengers at a time.


                                         3.2             Cruises visiting Cruise Baltic member cities




                                         The cruise industry is growing at the Cruise Baltic member cities.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                          16



                                         Figure 3.8              Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Cruise Baltic member
                                                                 cities 2000-2006


                                           2.500


                                           2.000


                                           1.500


                                           1.000


                                               500


                                                   0
                                                            2000           2001            2002            2003            2004   2005    2006
                                                       Passengers (1000)                             Calls               Turnarounds



                                         Source: Cruise Baltic member cities.


                                         Figure 3.9              Growth in number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Cruise Bal-
                                                                 tic member cities



                                                   40,0%
                                                   35,0%
                                                   30,0%
                                                   25,0%
                                                   20,0%
                                                   15,0%
                                                   10,0%
                                                       5,0%
                                                       0,0%
                                                                        Passengers                             Calls              Turnarounds

                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Source: Cruise Baltic member cities.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                     .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                   17



                                         The number of passengers to Cruise Baltic member cities has increased yearly
                                         by on average 13.4% from 2000-2006. Since 2004-2006 - when the Cruise Bal-
                                         tic project was initiated - the increase has been 13.3% p.a.

                                         The number of calls has also increased, but at a slightly lower rate, which is
                                         probably due to the increasing size of the ships.

                                         The number of turnarounds has increased by 12.3% on average, but by almost
                                         35% since 2004-2006.

                                         Comparison with EUROSTAT tourism information indicates that the cruise
                                         industry is growing faster than the tourist industry in general.5 For the countries
                                         where the data are available for 2001-2005 (Denmark, Germany, Norway and
                                         Finland), the annual growth has been less than 2%. However, there have been
                                         considerable fluctuations over the years.

                                         The passengers and calls at the individual cities are shown in the figure below.

                                         Figure 3.10             Passengers (1,000's) and calls, 2006

         450

         400

         350

         300

         250

         200

         150

         100

          50

           0
                               rg
                                n




                                a


                                g




                                a

                              da




                                                                                       n


                                                                                                 o


                                                                                                              a




                                                                                                                              ne


                                                                                                                              rg




                                                                                                                                        n




                                                                                                                                                      y
                                 i




                                                                                                             ck
                               ar




                                                                                       ö




                                                                                                                                                u
                                                                                                                               m
                              nk




                                                                                                                                                    sb
                             ge




                              ni


                             or




                                                                                      m




                                                                                                                                     lin
                             on




                                                                                                      ig
                                                                                              sl




                                                                                                                                              rk
                                                                                     m
                            bo




                                                                                                                            ol
                                                                                                                           bu
                            lm




                                                                                                           to
                           pe




                                                                                                                           ön
                                                                                             O
                           si
                          dy




                                                                                                     R
                                                                                   ha




                                                                                                                                            Tu
                                                                            al
                          eb




                                                                                                                                      l




                                                                                                                                                    Vi
                         ha




                                                                                                                          kh
                          kr




                                                                                                                                   Ta
                                                                                                         os
                       Ka
                        ng




                                                                                                                         rs
                         el




                                                                           M
                        ai




                                                                                                                         R
                       G




                      rls




                                                                                ie
                       öt




                                                                                                                       oc
                     en




                      H




                                                                                                                       te
                                                                                                        R
                     Kl
                     si




                                                                              ar
                    G




                   Ka




                                                                                                                    Pe


                                                                                                                    St
                   el
                  op




                                                                                M
                  H
                C




                                                                                                                          .
               e/




                                                                                                                       St
             or
           ng
         si
      El




                                                                     Passengers (1,000's)                      Calls




                                         Source: Cruise Baltic member cities.




                                         5
                                          EUROSTAT data for Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, and Nor-
                                         way.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                              .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 18



                                         Figure 3.11             Market shares of the cities (measured by passengers), 2006



                                                                    Visby
                                                             Turku

                                                                                                                      Copenhagen
                                         Tallinn




                                                                                                                                    Elsingore/Helsingborg


                                                                                                                                      Gdynia

                                                                                                                                       Göteborg
             Stockholm




                                                                                                                                       Helsinki




                                                                                                                                     Kalmar

                        St. Petersburg                                                                                              Karlskrona
                                                                                                                                   Klaipeda
                                                                                                                      Oslo         Malmö
                                                       Rönne
                                                                     Rostock                  Riga                                 Mariehamn




                                         Source: Cruise Baltic member cities.

                                         The figures show that Copenhagen, Helsinki, St. Petersburg, Stockholm and
                                         Tallinn are the largest destinations among the Cruise Baltic members. The turn-
                                         around ports are Copenhagen, Rostock, Stockholm and Helsinki and to a lesser
                                         extent Oslo and Tallinn.

                                         The importance of the cruise industry varies considerably from city to city. In
                                         most cities, the number of cruise passengers is very small compared to the total
                                         number of tourist bed-nights. In some cities, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo, Riga,
                                         Rostock, Tallinn and Visby, the number of cruise passengers corresponds to
                                         between 7% and 20% of the total number of tourist bed-nights. In Gdynia and
                                         Klaipeda, the number of cruise passengers exceeds the number of tourist bed-
                                         nights.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                        .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                          19




                                                    Since the start of the Cruise Baltic project, the number of cruise tourists in
                                                    the Baltic Sea region has increased significantly.
                                                    The growth in passengers to Cruise Baltic member cities from 2004 to
                                                    2006 has been 28%.
                                                    These growth rates are much higher than the growth rates of other cruise
                                                    markets.
                                                    As a consequence, the market share of the Cruise Baltic ports has in-
                                                    creased significantly over the years - by 12% since 2004 to 2005 (data for
                                                    2006 for other cruise destinations are not available).




                                         3.3             SWOT analysis
                                         The further development of the Baltic Sea Region as a cruise destination de-
                                         pends on a number of internal and external factors.

                                         The members of Cruise Baltic produced a SWOT analysis to identify and dis-
                                         cuss these factors at the Cruise Baltic workshop on 23 August 2006 in Stock-
                                         holm and on 27 November 2006 in Oslo.

                                         A SWOT analysis is a strategic planning tool used to evaluate the Strengths,
                                         Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats involved in a project. The objective of
                                         the Cruise Baltic SWOT analysis was to assess the strengths, weaknesses, op-
                                         portunities and threats related to "achieving an increased cruise industry mar-
                                         ket share in the Baltic Sea area over a period of 5 years".

                                         The four elements of the SWOT analysis are shown in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                             20



                                         Figure 3.12             SWOT analysis elements




                                                                                             Helpful to achieving                Harmful to achieving
                                                                                           increased market share              increased market share




                                                    Internal attributes of
                                                                                                     Strengths                     Weaknesses
                                                    the cruise industry in
                                                     the Baltic Sea area




                                                     External attributes
                                                    of the cruise industry                        Opportunities                       Threats
                                                       in the Baltic Sea
                                                              area




                                         Internal attributes are elements, which may be affected by the cruise industry in
                                         the Baltic Sea region. External attributes are factors presented by the external
                                         environment and the competition.

                                         The outcome of the SWOT analysis is presented in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                    .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                           21



                                         Figure 3.13             SWOT analysis for the cruise industry in the Baltic Sea area




                               Strengths                                                             Weaknesses
                                            Secure area                                                           Misconception about high
                                                                                                                  costs
                                            Cultural tourism is fastest grow-
                                            ing type of tourism                                                   Lack of knowledge about the
                                                                                                                  region
                                            High quality
                                                                                                                  Information about the im-
                                            Cruise lines have the highest
                                                                                                                  pacts of the industry
                                            yield in the Baltic Sea area
                                            Diversity
                                            Close cooperation
                                            Easy to access
                                            Continued development of new
                                            destinations
                                            Mild climate and long nights
                                            Joint marketing
                                            Uniform level of services


                               Opportunities                                                         Threats
                                            Market growth                                                         Weather (misconception)
                                            Globalisation                                                         People pollution
                                            Cruise industry becoming more                                         New cruise destinations
                                            "in"                                                                  around the world
                                            The growing cruise season                                             Short season
                                                                                                                  Environment
                                                                                                                  Travel habits (individuality)
                                                                                                                  Misconception (about cruis-
                                                                                                                  ing)/politics
                                                                                                                  Ships are growing too big




                                         Opportunities
                                         The rapid growing cruise industry - partly as a result of globalisation - provides
                                         great opportunities for the Baltic Sea Region to expand as cruise destination
                                         over the coming years.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                      .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        22



                                         Strengths
                                         Close cooperation among the ports and joint marketing efforts via the "Cruise
                                         Baltic" network are some of the means to exploit these opportunities. Further-
                                         more the Cruise Baltic network facilitates the process of developing uniform
                                         levels of services.



                                                    "We have definitely seen an increase in our number of passen-
                                                    gers. In our case it is very much due to our excellent co-operation
                                                    with MSC and Costa Cruises, which has boosted the number of
                                                    guests from Southern Europe. In the last two years the figures
                                                    have doubled from that area.
                                                    Also we can see an increase in the number of guests arriving from
                                                    North America. They have cruised all over the Caribbean and are
                                                    tired of beaches and barbecues. They want culture and history,
                                                    and the Baltic area offers just that.
                                                    We see the Cruise Baltic co-operation as a controlled way of de-
                                                    veloping the entire Baltic area, especially the small ports. So for
                                                    SAS it is important to contribute where we can."
                                                    Mr Terje Thoresen, director, SAS, Copenhagen Denmark




                                         Weaknesses
                                         Lack of knowledge about the region and a general misconception about the
                                         costs of visiting the region could prove to be important barriers to expanding
                                         market shares.

                                         Threats
                                         The main external factors, which could hinder continued positive development,
                                         are considered to be the weather conditions (intensified by a general miscon-
                                         ception of the weather in the region) and the fact that the ships are growing to
                                         big to access the region.

                                         In addition, recent years’ high growth in the cruise industry could also be a
                                         weakness hindering continued development as local inhabitants in e.g. St. Pe-
                                         tersburg a local tour operator mention that the locals feel that the increasing
                                         number of visitors is a mixed blessing - on the one hand museums gain a major
                                         financial boost, on the other hand they are exposed to very hard wear.

                                         The weather conditions make the cruise season relatively short, as illustrated in
                                         the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                                         23



                                         Figure 3.14             Passenger capacity deployed in Northern Europe in 2006 (Capacity in
                                                                 "Lower Berths")


                                                 80,000
                                                 70,000
                                                 60,000
                                                 50,000
                                                 40,000
                                                 30,000
                                                 20,000
                                                 10,000
                                                           0

                                                                                                        May
                                                                                        March




                                                                                                                                                              November
                                                                   January




                                                                                                                       July
                                                                                                              June
                                                                                                April




                                                                                                                               August
                                                                             February




                                                                                                                                                    October



                                                                                                                                                                         December
                                                                                                                                        September
                                         Sources: MSR-Consult & ShipPax Statistics & Outlook 06
                                         This implies, for instance, that employment linked to the cruise sector is sea-
                                         sonal which is tough on many people.

                                         Finally the ever-increasing size of cruise vessels may also be a problem, as
                                         these vessels simply exceed the limits set by the geographical conditions.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                                                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                      24




                                         4               Impact of the cruise sector on the Baltic
                                                         Sea region
                                         This section assesses the economic, environmental and social impact of the
                                         cruise sector.


                                         4.1             Economic impact
                                         The visits of cruise ships and cruise passengers generate revenue and jobs in the
                                         cities, which are part of the Cruise Baltic cooperation.

                                         The approach usually applied - and also applied here - to assess the economic
                                         impact is outlined in the figure below.

                                         Figure 4.1              Economic impacts of the cruise industry


                                                                           A cruise ship arrives




             The port supplies services                                                                                    Local businesses supply services




          Creates jobs directly in the port                                                                               Creates jobs in the service industry




                                                               When workers spend their wages, yet
                                                                     more jobs are created




                                         When a cruise ship arrives, it generates revenue and jobs in the port (direct ef-
                                         fect). Furthermore, jobs and revenue are generated in the local service sector,




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                             .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                          25



                                         when the cruise passengers spend money on food, local transport, lodging etc.
                                         (direct impact).6

                                         The assessment of these two direct effects is covered by the information pro-
                                         vided in a questionnaire sent to the ports/cities.

                                         Increasing cruise activity does, however, also generate so-called indirect ef-
                                         fects, when the workers spend their wages, which increases the economic activ-
                                         ity in the region further. Research indicates that this effect is relatively large for
                                         the tourism sector compared to other sectors, as the tourism sector is closely
                                         linked to local suppliers, and/or because its employees tend to spend more of
                                         their earnings in the city.7

                                         This indirect effect is here estimated by using international estimates on 'tourist
                                         multipliers', which express the total increase in output and employment through
                                         inter-industry linkages in a region as the result of tourism expenditures. Frecht-
                                         ling and Horváth (1999) estimate that total output in a city is 1.1841 times
                                         higher than total tourist expenditures. This figure is supported by Danish evi-
                                         dence of factors 1.32, 1.14 and 1.19 for Hotels and Restaurants, Transport and
                                         Retail respectively. The estimate of 1.1841 is used here.

                                         If, say, cruise passengers spend €600,000 a year in a city, it is estimated that the
                                         total revenue in the city increases by €710,500 (the indirect effects are therefore
                                         €110,500).

                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs per €1,000,000 of revenue.

                                         Figures for Denmark (Visit Denmark, 2006) indicate that 11.2 jobs are created
                                         per €1,000,000 revenue.8 This figure is naturally uncertain. Therefore a range
                                         of 8.4-14.0 is used below (+/- 25%).

                                         For comparison, the European Cruise Council uses a general number of 13.5
                                         jobs per million EURO for all countries.9 Hence the figures used here and by
                                         the ECC are similar.

                                         The corresponding figures for other countries have been estimated by adjust-
                                         ments for price levels (i.e. PPP10 corrections based on statistics from the World-
                                         bank, 2006).




                                         6
                                           The estimated turnovers in the ports are a rough estimate (not including ship repairs).
                                         7
                                           See for example Frechtling and Horváth (1999).
                                         8
                                           Or 1.5 jobs per 1,000,000 DKK of revenue.
                                         9
                                           The ECC Annual Review Book, 2005, estimates by G P Wild.
                                         10
                                            Purchasing Power Parity.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                               26




                                                    The PPP correction assumption
                                                    Assume that cruise passengers buy burgers for € 200.000 in Copen-
                                                    hagen and that this action generates 2 jobs.
                                                    In Tallinn a burger costs half the price of one in Copenhagen. There-
                                                    fore, if they buy burgers for the same amount, they get twice as many
                                                    burgers in Tallinn and therefore generate twice as many jobs.
                                                    Such a calculation assumes constant labour productivity in all the
                                                    countries, which tends to underestimate the number of jobs, especially
                                                    in low cost countries. However, how much is difficult to assess.




                                         The figures used are presented in the table below.11

                                         Table 4.1               Number of jobs created per €1,000,000 of revenue

                                           Country                                        Minimum                        Maximum
                                           Denmark                                                  8.4                        14.0
                                           Sweden                                                   9.1                        15.1
                                           Latvia                                                 23.6                         39.4
                                           Finland                                                  9.9                        16.4
                                           Norway                                                   8.0                        13.4
                                           Poland                                                 22.5                         37.5
                                           Russia                                                 28.3                         47.1
                                           Estonia                                                20.1                         33.5
                                           Germany                                                10.0                         16.7
                                           Lithuania                                              23.9                         39.9
                                         Note: Estimated on the basis key figure for Denmark by using PPP-adjustments.

                                         The total economic impacts of the cruise sector in the Baltic Sea Region are
                                         estimated on the basis of the above-mentioned factors and the information pro-
                                         vided in the questionnaires on port and tourist spending. The results are shown
                                         in the table below.




                                         11
                                            In other calculations, these figures have to be adjusted for tourists who come to the coun-
                                         try anyway. However, it is an accepted assumption here that cruise passengers first choose
                                         to go on a cruise and then choose their destinations. This means that they will not alterna-
                                         tively visit that particular country as an ordinary tourist.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    27



                                         Table 4.2               Total revenue in the BSR region generated by the cruise industry, 2006

                                           Effect                                                                              Million €
                                           Direct effects, mill. €                                                             290 - 374
                                           Indirect effects, mill. €                                                           53 - 68.9
                                           Total effects, mill. €                                                              343 - 443



                                         In total, the cruise passengers generate a direct and indirect turnover of between
                                         343 and 443 mill. €12.

                                         The increase in revenue generates between 5,500 and 11,500 jobs in the 10
                                         Cruise Baltic countries.



                                                    "The good news is that the increased number of ships visiting the
                                                    Baltic Sea has a positive effect on the economy of the cities being
                                                    visited and thus the Baltic economy as such.
                                                    On the downside the enormous growth has meant the opening of
                                                    many tour operators and an overall deterioration of the services
                                                    being offered. Usually we find that competition has a positive ef-
                                                    fect, but we see passengers being offered services, which leave
                                                    them disgruntled and dissatisfied.
                                                    It would be nice to see Cruise Baltic taking a positive step to en-
                                                    courage a dialogue between the cruise lines and the countries as
                                                    such, because in this way it might be possible to avoid the grow-
                                                    ing congestion in the cities."


                                                    Mr. Terry O'Sullivan, Managing Director, Seacscapetours AB, Sweden




                                         12
                                              Most ports do not have estimates of the turnover generated directly by the cruise lines


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                           28




                                         4.2             Environmental impact


                                                    Baltic Sea facts
                                                                 A shallow and almost landlocked sea
                                                                 One of the largest brackish water areas in the world
                                                                 Unique and fragile ecosystems with naturally low numbers
                                                                 of species
                                                                 Highly sensitive to all kinds of pollution
                                                                 Surrounded by many large cities and regions with inten-
                                                                 sive agriculture and industry
                                                                 Some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world


                                                    http://helcom.navigo.fi/stc/files/Publications/BalticSeaActionPlan/Baltic_S
                                                    ea_Action_Plan_brochure.pdf




                                         The cruise industry impacts the environment in the Baltic Sea in many ways.

                                         Several sources agree that the largest impacts concern air pollution (including
                                         fuel consumption), noise, waste at sea (including accidents and oil spill) and
                                         waste at the ports.13,14

                                         Therefore, we have focused on these elements and done it in the following way:

                                         •       Quantitative assessment of the development in fuel consumption of cruise
                                                 ships

                                         •       Qualitative assessment of the magnitude of impact of air pollution, noise
                                                 and waste based on a questionnaire to the cities.

                                         The average daily fuel consumption is shown in the figure below. The figures
                                         from 2006-2010 are estimated.




                                         13
                                            See e.g. "A shifting tide - Environmental challenges and cruise industry responses". Here,
                                         also the impacts on coral reefs are mentioned. Since there are no coral reefs in the Baltic
                                         Sea, this environmental effect is not considered here.
                                         14
                                            Other environmental factors are dredging, unnatural mix between the layers in the water,
                                         oil spill during bunkering and pollution from land transport.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC      .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                                         29



                                         Figure 4.2                   Daily Fuel Consumption per passenger by ship size

                                            100

                                             95

                                             90

                                             85

                                             80

                                             75

                                             70

                                             65

                                             60
                                                     1995

                                                               1996

                                                                        1997

                                                                               1998

                                                                                        1999

                                                                                               2000

                                                                                                      2001

                                                                                                              2002

                                                                                                                     2003

                                                                                                                            2004

                                                                                                                                    2005

                                                                                                                                           2006

                                                                                                                                                  2007

                                                                                                                                                         2008

                                                                                                                                                                  2009

                                                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                            Small                     Medium                 Large                 Very large                   Total fleet




                                         Note: Small (2-10 tGT), Medium (10-30tGT), Large (30-100 tGT), and Very Large (100+ tGT).
                                         Source: MSR-Consult & Lloyd's Register Fairplay

                                         The figure shows a trend towards more fuel-efficient ships, where every cate-
                                         gory except the smallest ships reduces their fuel consumption per passenger.
                                         The total fuel consumption per passenger per day has decreased constantly dur-
                                         ing the period. This is in line with the development of fuel consumption of
                                         other transport modes.

                                         Since air emissions are largely correlated to fuel consumption and the oil type,
                                         a decrease in fuel consumption will most likely lead to a decrease in emissions.
                                         As legislation on fuel types and/or contents of fuel (e.g. SO2-content) is regu-
                                         lated ever tighter, air emissions per passenger should decrease further in the
                                         future.

                                         However, since the number of passengers is going up, both fuel consumption
                                         and air emissions will continue to rise - as is the case for other transport modes.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                                             .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        30




                                                    HELCOM
                                                    In order to ensure that all possible measures are taken to reduce
                                                    pollution in the Baltic Sea and to repair the damage done to the
                                                    marine environment, the HELCOM Member States and the EU
                                                    resolved to develop an innovative HELCOM Baltic Sea Action
                                                    Plan in 2005.
                                                    The first steps towards the Action Plan were launched in 2006 and
                                                    will be further developed through a series of thematic meetings
                                                    and a final Stakeholder Conference in March 2007.




                                         Qualitative environmental impact, Cruise Baltic member cities
                                         The Cruise Baltic member ports have assessed their air pollution, noise and
                                         waste in a questionnaire.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        31



                                         Figure 4.3              Restricting factor in the future?



                    Air pollution

                                  Noise

               Waste at port

                 Waste at sea

                                               -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516
                                                 Agree                   Disagree
                                                                                   Future               Now


                                         The figure shows that the majority of the cities do not see the environmental
                                         issues as a hot topic now nor as a restricting factor in the future. One reason for
                                         this is that possible environmental issues are dealt with continuously, both lo-
                                         cally and in the Cruise Baltic network. It does however also appear that some
                                         cities do consider environmental issues as a restricting factor. The ports con-
                                         sider that waste at sea is the most important topic.




                                                    A new report from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency
                                                    (EPA) shows that, although the number of cruise ships calling on
                                                    the Port of Copenhagen is increasing, they only contribute mod-
                                                    estly to air pollution.
                                                    Co-operating with the City of Copenhagen's Environmental Pro-
                                                    tection Agency, the Port of Copenhagen, and the Copenhagen-
                                                    Malmö Port, the Danish EPA investigated pollution from cruise
                                                    ships in 2004. The new calculations from 2004 show that emis-
                                                    sions of nitrogen oxide (NOx) from cruise ships amounted to 147
                                                    tonnes. Compared to overall Danish emissions of NOx of approx.
                                                    200,000 tonnes/year, this figure is quite low.
                                                    http://www.mst.dk/udgiv/publikationer/2005/87-7614-507-7/html/




                                         In the sections for the individual cities, the individual assessments are pre-
                                         sented.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    32



                                         4.3             Social impact
                                         The social dimension of sustainability encompasses the political, the cultural
                                         and all people-centred issues, except the economic. The social dimension cov-
                                         ers means ensuring that the basic conditions for human life to flourish exist
                                         within society.

                                         In this context, the cruise industry can contribute to social sustainability by
                                         generating jobs - often for less skilled workers - thus reducing the unemploy-
                                         ment problems among the weaker groups of society.

                                         In general, the unemployment rate in the nine EU countries dealt with in this
                                         study is highest for unskilled workers and lowest for academics.

                                         Figure 4.4              Unemployment rates by education



                                                    25%

                                                    20%

                                                    15%

                                                    10%

                                                      5%

                                                      0%
                                                                   Unskilled w orkers            Short education               Academics




                                         Source: EUROSTAT15.

                                         At the same time, the tourist industry employs many unskilled workers.




                                         15 Unskilled workers equals "Pre-primary, primary and lower secondary education -
                                         ISCED levels 0-2". Short education equals "Upper secondary and post-secondary non-
                                         tertiary education - levels 3-4" and Academics equals "Tertiary education - levels 5-6".


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                  33



                                         Figure 4.5              Unemployment rates by education in the tourist industry and in the ac-
                                                                 tive population



                                                    50%

                                                    40%

                                                    30%

                                                    20%

                                                    10%

                                                      0%
                                                                 Share of unskilled workers                 Share of unskilled workers
                                                                  employed in the tourism                    in the active population
                                                                          industry



                                         Source: EUROSTAT.

                                         Since cruise passengers have the same behaviour, for example visit the same
                                         sites as other tourists, this trend is most likely valid for the cruise industry too.

                                         The figures therefore prove that an increased cruise industry may reduce the
                                         rate unemployment among groups who experience most difficulty in finding
                                         jobs.



                                                    13 out of 19 cities agree that the cruise industry has a positive
                                                    image among the citizens of their city compared to other forms of
                                                    tourism. Nobody disagrees.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC             .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        34




                                         5               Copenhagen




                                         5.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         399,000 passengers visited Copenhagen in 2006 which is 10% more than in
                                         2005 and 140% more than in 2000. The number of calls has increased with
                                         45% in the same period while turnarounds has increased with 83%

                                         The development in traffic for Port of Copenhagen is illustrated in Figure 5.1
                                         and Figure 5.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                        35



                                         Figure 5.1              Number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Copenhagen



                                           450
                                           400
                                           350
                                           300
                                           250
                                           200
                                           150
                                           100
                                             50
                                                0
                                                        2000             2001            2002            2003            2004   2005    2006


                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 5.2              Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Copenha-
                                                                 gen



                                                     20,0%

                                                     15,0%

                                                     10,0%

                                                        5,0%

                                                        0,0%
                                                                         Passengers                            Calls            Turnarounds
                                                    Annual growth 2000-2006                               Growth 2004-2006




                                         With 54% of the turnarounds in Cruise Baltic, Copenhagen is by far the most
                                         popular starting point for a Baltic cruise. Copenhagen also has the most passen-
                                         gers with 18% of all Cruise Baltic passengers in 2005, and accounts for 12% of
                                         the total number of calls.



\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                           36



                                         Figure 5.3              Size of Copenhagen relative to other ports


              Passengers 2006                                                    Calls 2006                                    Turnarounds 2006




                                         The cruise passengers' economic impact on Copenhagen is estimated below.


                                         5.2             Economic impact
                                         As explained in section 4.1 there are both direct and indirect economic impacts
                                         of the cruise industry on a city.

                                         Table 5.1 and Table 5.2 summarize the estimated direct impacts of the cruise
                                         industry on Copenhagen.

                                         Table 5.1               Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                       399,000
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                                   1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                     100 - 190
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                                    40 - 76




                                         Table 5.2               Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                          Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                   30.9
                                          Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                             2.5

                                          Total                                                                     33.4

                                         Note: Port revenue does not include approximately 9 mill. EUR as this revenue mainly covers interests on invested
                                         capital and as such does not contribute to employment.

                                         Cruise passengers visiting Copenhagen are estimated to spend on average
                                         €100-190. The relative high spending may be due to the large share of turn-
                                         arounds in Copenhagen. The direct economic impact amounts to between 73
                                         and 109 mill. EUR.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                     .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 37



                                         Table 5.3               Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effect                                                        Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                                  73 - 109
                                           Indirect effects                                                                    14 - 20
                                           Total effects                                                                   87 - 129



                                         Including indirect effects the cruise industry accounts for a turnover of 87 to
                                         129 mill. EUR.

                                         Figure 5.4 illustrates the local purchases by cruise ships in Copenhagen. The
                                         port's status as a turnaround point is readily seen from the figure, as especially
                                         luggage is an important part of the local purchases.

                                         Figure 5.4              Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                    Copenhagen




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 5.4               Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                           Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   8.4 - 14
                                           Jobs created                                                                  729 - 1,810



                                         Table 5.4 shows that the cruise industry generates between 700 and 1,800 jobs
                                         in Copenhagen.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               38



                                         5.3             Environmental impact
                                         Copenhagen's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise, and
                                         waste is given below.

                                         Copenhagen does not consider environmental issues as a hot issue now nor a
                                         restricting factor in the future. A study of the environmental impacts has been
                                         carried out by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency by request of Port
                                         of Copenhagen.

                                         Figure 5.5              To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future?




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         5.4             Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Denmark are shown below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            39



                                         Figure 5.6              Unemployment rates for Denmark


                                                   8.0

                                                   7.0

                                                   6.0

                                                   5.0
                                                                                                                                       Average
                                                   4.0

                                                   3.0

                                                   2.0

                                                   1.0

                                                   0.0
                                                              Unskilled workers                 Short education                Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Denmark.

                                         Figure 5.7 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry com-
                                         pared to their share of the active population.

                                         Figure 5.7              The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population.
                                         They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the



\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        40



                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in
                                         Copenhagen will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.



                                                    "This year we have witnessed an increase in individual bed-nights
                                                    of 10%. We are absolutely sure that the increase is due to the
                                                    cruise industry, which has really taken hold of the area. We are
                                                    convinced that in spite of the fact that Copenhagen won't host as
                                                    many conferences as it did last year, we will continue to see an
                                                    increase in bed-nights, perhaps not of the 10% magnitude.
                                                    The increase in number of bed-nights also means that we have
                                                    added to our full-time staff by 4% which is not a particularly figure.
                                                    This is because we already have the administrative staff we need,
                                                    but more guests means more waiters, cleaners and other service
                                                    personnel.
                                                    In addition, we feel that Copenhagen has a lot to offer cruise
                                                    guests in the way of good sights and an excellent infrastructure in
                                                    spite of hiccups at the airport."


                                                    Mr Roy Kappenberger, Regional Director - Denmark and General Man-
                                                    ager of Radisson SAS Scandinavia Hotel, Copenhagen, Denmark.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        41




                                         6               Elsinore/Helsingborg




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      42



                                         6.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 the twin cities of Elsinore and Helsingborg had approximately 18,500
                                         passengers. This was 89% more than in 2005 even though the number of calls
                                         decreased from 14 in 2005 to 11 in 2006.

                                         The development in the number of passengers, port calls and turnarounds is
                                         illustrated in Figure 6.1 and Figure 6.2.

                                         Figure 6.1              Number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Elsinore/Helsingborg



                                           35
                                           30
                                           25
                                           20
                                           15
                                           10
                                             5
                                             0
                                                      2000             2001            2002            2003             2004   2005   2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      43



                                         Figure 6.2              Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Elsi-
                                                                 nore/Helsingborg



                                                   60,0%
                                                   40,0%
                                                   20,0%
                                                     0,0%
                                                  -20,0%                Passengers                              Calls          Turnarounds
                                                  -40,0%
                                                  -60,0%
                                                  -80,0%
                                               -100,0%
                                               -120,0%

                                                         Annual growth 2000-2006                                Growth 2004-2006




                                         Figure 6.3 shows the size of Elsinore/Helsingborg compared to all Cruise Baltic
                                         ports. With less than 1% of the passengers Elsinore/Helsingborg is only the
                                         12th largest port member in Cruise Baltic.




                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                             Turnarounds 2006




                                         Figure 6.3              Size of Elsinore/Helsingborg relative to other ports




                                         6.2             Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on Elsinore/Helsingborg is illustrated in
                                         Table 6.1 and Table 6.2.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               44



                                         The 18,555 passengers are estimated to spend on average 100 - 125 EUR in the
                                         two cities totalling 1.9 to 2.3 mill. EUR

                                         Table 6.1               Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                            18,555
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                                        1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                         100 - 125
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                                       1.9 - 2.3




                                         Table 6.2               Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  0.1
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                          0.0
                                           Total                                                                    0.1



                                         Table 6.3 include the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the cruise
                                         industry generates a direct and indirect turnover of 2.3 to 2.9 mill. EUR.

                                         Table 6.3               Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                                      2 - 2.4
                                           Indirect effects                                                                0.4 - 0.4
                                           Total effects                                                                   2.3 - 2.9



                                         As seen in Table 6.2 the cruise ships' spending in Elsinore/Helsingborg is lim-
                                         ited. This is confirmed by the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 45



                                         Figure 6.4              Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                             Elsingore/Helsingborg




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 6.4               Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                           Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                  8.4 - 14
                                           Jobs created                                                                        20 - 40



                                         Table 6.4 shows that the cruise industry generates between 20 and 40 jobs in
                                         Elsinore and Helsingborg.


                                         6.3             Environmental impact
                                         Figure 6.5 summarizes the two ports' view on specific environmental issues.
                                         Elsinore and Helsingborg does not consider environmental factors to be a hot
                                         topic now or a restricting factor in the future.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               46



                                         Figure 6.5              To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         6.4             Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Denmark and Sweden are shown below.

                                         Figure 6.6              Unemployment rates for Denmark


                                                   8.0

                                                   7.0

                                                   6.0

                                                   5.0
                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                   4.0

                                                   3.0

                                                   2.0

                                                   1.0

                                                   0.0
                                                              Unskilled workers                 Short education                    Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            47



                                         Figure 6.7              Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0                                                                                Average

                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for both Denmark and Sweden.

                                         Figure 6.8 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry com-
                                         pared to their share of the active population.

                                         Figure 6.8              The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively in Denmark.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            48



                                         Figure 6.9              The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively in Sweden


                                                    50%
                                                    45%
                                                    40%
                                                    35%
                                                    30%
                                                    25%
                                                    20%
                                                    15%
                                                    10%
                                                      5%
                                                      0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In both Denmark and Sweden unskilled workers are generally more unem-
                                         ployed than the average population. They also make up a relatively larger share
                                         of the workers employed in the tourism industry. This implies that growth in
                                         the cruise and tourist industry in Elsinore and Helsingborg will reduce the un-
                                         employment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        49




                                         7               Gdynia




                                         7.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 94,000 cruise passengers visited Gdynia in Poland, which is 63% more
                                         than in the year 2000. The number of calls during the same period increased by
                                         24%, i.e. from 72 calls in 2000 to 89 calls in 2006.

                                         The development in the number of cruise passengers, port calls and turnarounds
                                         is illustrated in Figure 7.1 and Figure 7.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                        50



                                         Figure 7.1              Number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Gdynia



                                           100

                                             80

                                             60

                                             40

                                             20

                                                0
                                                        2000            2001            2002            2003            2004   2005   2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 7.2              Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Gdynia




                                                  16,0%
                                                  14,0%
                                                  12,0%
                                                  10,0%
                                                   8,0%
                                                   6,0%
                                                   4,0%
                                                   2,0%
                                                   0,0%
                                                                       Passengers                               Calls            Turnarounds

                                                    Annual growth 2000-2006                               Growth 2004-2006




                                         Gdynia is the 8th largest port member of Cruise Baltic measured by number of
                                         passengers. Gdynia accounts for around 4% of the total number of passengers
                                         and 4% of calls to Cruise Baltic ports.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     51



                                         Figure 7.3              Size of Gdynia relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         The economic impact of these is assessed below.


                                         7.2             Economic impact
                                         The economic impact on Gdynia of the cruise industry is estimated on the basis
                                         of the approach outlined in section 4.1. First, the direct economic impact is as-
                                         sessed.

                                         Table 7.1               Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  94,135
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                               100 - 125
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            9.4 - 11.8




                                         Table 7.2               Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  0.7
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                           na
                                           Total                                                                    0.7



                                         Given the estimated average spending per day per passenger, the direct eco-
                                         nomic impact amounts to between 10.1 and 12.4 mill. EUR (Table 7.1 plus
                                         Table 7.2). These figures may be on the low side due to the fact that no esti-
                                         mates on cruise line spending exist.

                                         The direct economic impacts lead to indirect impacts, too.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    52



                                         Table 7.3               Total direct and indirect economic impacts, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                   10.1 - 12.4
                                           Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                    1.9 - 2.3
                                           Total effects, mill. EUR                                                    11.9 - 14.7



                                         In total, the passengers generate a direct and indirect turnover of between 11.9
                                         and 14.7 mill. EUR plus the turnover generated directly by the cruise lines.

                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 7.4               Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                               22.5 - 37.5

                                          Jobs created                                                                         268 - 551



                                         The table shows that the cruise industry at least generates 250 jobs in Gdynia
                                         and maybe up to more than 550 jobs.


                                         7.3             Environmental impact
                                         Gdynia's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise and waste
                                         is given below.

                                         The figure shows that Gdynia does not see the environmental issues as a hot
                                         topic now nor a restricting factor in the future.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               53



                                         Figure 7.4              To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         7.4             Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Poland are shown in the figure below.

                                         Figure 7.5              Unemployment rates for Poland


                                                   30.0

                                                   25.0

                                                   20.0
                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                   15.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     5.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education                   Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                         54



                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates.

                                         Figure 7.6              The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population in Poland.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                 Share of unskilled w orkers               Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                               employed in the tourism industry                   active population



                                         Unlike most other countries, the share of unskilled workers in the tourist indus-
                                         try is lower in Poland than in the active population.

                                         The figure below shows the same graph for skilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                    .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                           55



                                         Figure 7.7              The share of skilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population in Poland16.


                                                 100%
                                                   90%
                                                   80%
                                                   70%
                                                   60%
                                                   50%
                                                   40%
                                                   30%
                                                   20%
                                                   10%
                                                     0%
                                                                Share of (ISCED 3-4) workers                        Share of (ISCED 3-4) workers in
                                                               employed in the tourism industry                          the active population


                                         Skilled and unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Poland. This implies that growth in the
                                         cruise and tourist industry in Gdynia will reduce the unemployment rate for
                                         these groups.




                                         16
                                           ISCED: International Standard Classification of Education by Unesco. Code 3: (Upper)
                                         secondary education; Code 4: Post-secondary non tertiary education.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                      .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        56




                                         8               Göteborg




                                         8.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         Figure 8.1 shows the development in traffic for Göteborg from 2000 to 2006. In
                                         2006 approximately 11,000 cruise passengers visited Göteborg, which is almost
                                         232% more than in 2000. The 22% average yearly growth in passengers in the
                                         period is mainly generated in 2003 to 2005. Port of Göteborg attributes this to
                                         the increased focus on marketing during the latest years. In contrast to previous
                                         years Göteborg had no turnarounds in 2006.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                          57



                                         Figure 8.1              Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Göteborg



                                           25

                                           20

                                           15

                                           10

                                             5

                                             0
                                                       2000            2001             2002            2003             2004     2005    2006

                                                                  Passengers (1000)                             Calls           Turnarounds




                                         Figure 8.2              Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Göteborg


                                                    40,0%
                                                    20,0%
                                                      0,0%
                                                   -20,0%                 Passengers                                Calls            Turnarounds

                                                   -40,0%
                                                   -60,0%
                                                   -80,0%
                                                 -100,0%
                                                 -120,0%

                                                        Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Figure 8.3 illustrates the size of Göteborg compared to other Cruise Baltic
                                         Ports. Göteborg has relatively many turnarounds compared to its size. Com-
                                         pared to other Cruise Baltic ports Göteborg is the 14th largest measured on pas-
                                         sengers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                     .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     58



                                         Figure 8.3              Size of Göteborg relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         8.2             Economic impact
                                         Port of Göteborg estimates that passengers spend 50 - 75 EUR in the city on
                                         average.

                                         Table 8.1               Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  11,272
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 50 - 75
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             0.6 - 0.8



                                         With 11,272 passengers in 2006 the direct revenue generated by cruise tourists
                                         amounts to 0.6 to 0.8 mill. EUR.

                                         Figure 8.4              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  0.1
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                           na
                                           Total                                                                    0.1




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 59



                                         Table 8.2               Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                                      0.7 - 1
                                           Indirect effects                                                                0.1 - 0.2
                                           Total effects                                                                   0.8 - 1.2



                                         As outlined in section 4.1 tourist spending generates indirect effects. Table 8.2
                                         displays the total impact of the cruise industry on the city of Göteborg. Includ-
                                         ing indirect impacts the cruise industry generates between 0.8 and 1.2 mill.
                                         EUR of revenue in the city. These figures may be on the low side due to the
                                         fact that no estimates on cruise line spending exist although Figure 8.5 suggests
                                         that this is limited.

                                         Figure 8.5              Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                      Göteborg




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The effect on revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 8.3               Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                           Jobs per mill. EUR                                                             9.1 - 15.1
                                           Jobs created                                                                         8 - 18



                                         Table 8.3 shows that the cruise industry generates between 8 and 18 jobs in
                                         Göteborg through direct and indirect effects.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               60



                                         8.3             Environmental impact
                                         Göteborg's evaluation of four environmental issues is given in Figure 8.6 be-
                                         low.

                                         The figure shows that Port of Göteborg does not perceive environmental factors
                                         as a hot topic at the present. Air pollution may be of some concern in the future
                                         but besides that no environmental factor is expected to be a barrier in the future.

                                         Figure 8.6              To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         8.4             Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for three groups of educational level in Sweden are
                                         given in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            61



                                         Figure 8.7              Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are strikingly higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Sweden.

                                         Figure 8.8 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry com-
                                         pared to their share of the active population in Sweden.

                                         Figure 8.8              The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In Sweden, unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average
                                         population. They also make up a relatively larger share of the employees in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry will


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        62



                                         mostly benefit the unskilled workers and bring their unemployment rate closer
                                         to the country average.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        63




                                         9               Helsinki




                                         9.1             Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 Helsinki in Finland served approximately 270,000 passengers, which
                                         was 93% more than in 2000. In the same period the number of calls increased
                                         by 40% from 185 calls in 2000 to 259 in 2006.

                                         The development in cruise traffic is illustrated in Figure 9.1 and Figure 9.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       64



                                         Figure 9.1              Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Helsinki




                                           300
                                           250
                                           200
                                           150
                                           100
                                            50
                                             0
                                                         2000            2001            2002            2003           2004    2005   2006
                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 9.2              Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Helsinki



                                                 20,0%

                                                 15,0%

                                                 10,0%


                                                    5,0%

                                                    0,0%
                                                                        Passengers                                Calls           Turnarounds

                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Helsinki is the 5th largest member of Cruise Baltic measured by the number of
                                         passengers. The port accounts for about 12% of the total number of passengers
                                         and 11% of calls to Cruise Baltic ports.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      65



                                         Figure 9.3              Size of Helsinki relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                          Turnarounds 2006




                                         The economic impact of the cruise industry on Helsinki is estimated below.


                                         9.2             Economic impact
                                         As explained in section 4.1 there are both direct and indirect economic impacts
                                         of the cruise industry on a city.

                                         It is estimated that cruise passengers in Helsinki on average spend 125 - 150
                                         EUR.

                                         Table 9.1               Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  270,000
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                               1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                125 - 150
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            33.8 - 40.5




                                         Table 9.2               Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                 1.4*
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                          0.0
                                           Total                                                                    1.4
                                         * Cruise line spending included in this figure

                                         Table 9.1 and Table 9.2 summarize the estimated direct impacts of the cruise
                                         industry on Helsinki. The revenue generated directly from passenger spending
                                         amounts to approximately 34 to 41 mill. EUR. The port revenue is estimated to
                                         1.4 mill. EUR.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 66



                                         Table 9.3               Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effect                                                        Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                              35.1 - 41.9
                                           Indirect effects                                                                6.5 - 7.7
                                           Total effects                                                               41.6 - 49.6



                                         The table above shows the impact on Helsinki including indirect effects. In-
                                         cluding indirect effects the total impact of the cruise industry on Helsinki is 42
                                         to 50 mill. EUR.

                                         Figure 9.4 illustrates the local purchases by cruise ships in Helsinki.

                                         Figure 9.4              Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                       Helsinki




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 9.4               Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.9 - 16.4
                                          Jobs created                                                                         410 - 816


                                         The estimated impact on the employment in Helsinki is displayed in Table 9.4.
                                         It is estimated that a total of 400 to 800 jobs in the city are based on the cruise
                                         industry.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               67



                                         9.3             Environmental impact
                                         Port of Helsinki's evaluation of four environmental issues is given below.

                                         The figure shows that waste at sea as well as at port from the cruise industry
                                         could be a restricting factor in Helsinki in the future. The port has stated that it
                                         cooperates with local groups - NGOs - to discuss environmental effects from
                                         the cruise activities.

                                         Figure 9.5              To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         9.4             Social impact
                                         Figure 9.6 shows the unemployment rates in Finland for different groups.

                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates. Moreover, unskilled workers are significantly more likely to be
                                         unemployed than the average person.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            68



                                         Figure 9.6              Unemployment rates for Finland


                                                   16.0

                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     8.0

                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Figure 9.7              The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population.
                                         They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in
                                         Helsinki will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        69




                                                    "This year has seen an increased number of ships in the Baltic,
                                                    and our number of employees has gone up. From society's
                                                    point of view this is good news. However, from a purely finan-
                                                    cial point of view we are not making more money, but our new
                                                    employees are ensuring that our clients receive the same high
                                                    level of service we offered last year.

                                                    We have not seen any new players on the market this year,
                                                    rather an increased number of ships from the shipping lines we
                                                    already know.

                                                    I do not believe that we will see marked growth next year, but
                                                    hopefully around 5-10%. After all there is a limit to how many
                                                    ships can be berthed at one and the same port in a short season,
                                                    and everyone wants to visit St. Petersburg."

                                                    Mr. Roland Forssel, Managing Director of C&C Port Agency Finland Oy Ltd.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        70




                                         10              Kalmar




                                         10.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 2,700 cruise passengers visited Kalmar in Sweden, which is approxi-
                                         mately 34% less than in the year 2000. The number of calls during the same
                                         period decreased by from 7 calls in 2000 to 6 calls in 2006.

                                         The development in the number of cruise passengers, port calls and turnarounds
                                         is illustrated in Figure 10.1 and Figure 10.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                          71



                                         Figure 10.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Kalmar



                                           18
                                           16
                                           14
                                           12
                                           10
                                            8
                                            6
                                            4
                                            2
                                            0
                                                      2000             2001             2002             2003            2004      2005       2006
                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 10.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Kalmar




                                                            40%
                                                            30%
                                                            20%
                                                            10%
                                                             0%
                                                           -10%
                                                                           Passengers                         Calls             Turnarounds




                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Kalmar is the 3rd smallest port member of Cruise Baltic measured by number
                                         of passengers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                     .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     72



                                         Figure 10.3             Size of Kalmar relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         10.2            Economic impact
                                         The economic impact on Kalmar of the cruise industry is estimated on the basis
                                         of the approach outlined in section 4.1. First, the direct economic impact is as-
                                         sessed.

                                         Table 10.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                   2,717
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 60 - 90
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             0.2 - 0.2




                                         Table 10.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  0.0
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                           na
                                           Total                                                                    0.0



                                         Given the estimated average spending per day per passenger, the direct eco-
                                         nomic impact amounts to roughly 0.2 mill. EUR (Table 10.1 plus Table 10.2).
                                         These figures may be on the low side due to the fact that no estimates on cruise
                                         line spending exist.

                                         The direct economic impacts lead to indirect impacts, too.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 73



                                         Table 10.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                          Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                            0.2 - 0.3
                                          Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                              0-0

                                          Total effects, mill. EUR                                                             0.2 - 0.3



                                         In total, the passengers generate a direct and indirect turnover of between 0.2
                                         and 0.3 mill. EUR plus the turnover generated directly by the cruise lines.

                                         As seen in Figure 10.4 cruise lines only buy a little food locally.

                                         Figure 10.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                        Kalmar




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 10.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.1 - 15.1
                                          Jobs created                                                                              2-5



                                         The table shows that the cruise industry in Kalmar generates very few jobs.


                                         10.3            Environmental impact
                                         Kalmar's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise and waste
                                         is given below.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               74



                                         The figure shows that Kalmar is especially concerned with waste at sea and that
                                         this may be a restricting factor within the next 5 years. Noise is not seen as a
                                         problem.

                                         Figure 10.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         10.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for three groups of educational level in Sweden are
                                         given in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            75



                                         Figure 10.6             Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are strikingly higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Sweden.

                                         Figure 10.7 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population in Sweden.

                                         Figure 10.7             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In Sweden, unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average
                                         population. They also make up a relatively larger share of the employees in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry will


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        76



                                         mostly benefit the unskilled workers and bring their unemployment rate closer
                                         to the country average.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        77




                                         11              Karlskrona




                                         11.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         Figure 11.1 and Figure 11.2 shows the development in traffic for Karlskrona
                                         from 2002 to 2006. In 2005 2,460 passengers visited Karlskrona, which is an
                                         increase of 120% compared to 2002.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                             78



                                         Figure 11.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Karlskrona



                                                4

                                                3

                                                2

                                                1

                                                0
                                                        2000             2001             2002             2003                2004   2005     2006



                                                                Passengers (1000)                             Calls              Turnarounds




                                         Figure 11.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Karlskrona



                                                     60,0%
                                                     50,0%
                                                     40,0%
                                                     30,0%
                                                     20,0%
                                                     10,0%
                                                      0,0%
                                                                          Passengers                              Calls               Turnarounds
                                                    Annual growth 2000-2006                               Growth 2004-2006




                                         With its relatively new status as a Cruise Baltic port Karlskrona is the 2nd
                                         smallest port in the co-operation.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                        .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     79



                                         Figure 11.3             Size of Karlskrona relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         11.2            Economic impact
                                         Karlskrona estimates that passengers on average spend 25 - 50 EUR in the city.
                                         This is below other Scandinavian ports.

                                         Table 11.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                   2,460
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 25 - 50
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             0.1 - 0.1



                                         With 1,350 passengers in 2005 the direct revenue generated amounts to in the
                                         region of 0.1 mill. EUR.

                                         Table 11.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                          Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                      na
                                          Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                              na
                                          Total                                                                        na




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 80



                                         Table 11.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                       0.1 - 0.1
                                           Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                           0-0
                                           Total effects, mill. EUR                                                        0.1 - 0.1



                                         As outlined in section 4.1 tourist spending generates indirect effects. Table 11.3
                                         displays the total impact of the cruise industry on the city of Karlskrona. In-
                                         cluding indirect impacts the cruise industry generates roughly 0.1 mill. EUR of
                                         revenue in the city. These figures may be on the low side due to the fact that no
                                         estimates on cruise line spending nor port revenue exist although Figure 11.4
                                         suggests that this is limited.

                                         Figure 11.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                     Karlskrona




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The effect on revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 11.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.1 - 15.1
                                          Jobs created                                                                              1-2



                                         Table 11.4 shows that the cruise industry only has a very small employment
                                         impact in Karlskrona.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               81



                                         11.3            Environmental impact
                                         The figure below shows that Karlskrona does not perceive environmental fac-
                                         tors as a hot topic at the present nor within the next 5 years. With 2 calls in
                                         2005 this is not unexpected.

                                         Figure 11.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         11.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for three groups of educational level in Sweden are
                                         given in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            82



                                         Figure 11.6             Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are strikingly higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Sweden.

                                         Figure 11.7 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population in Sweden.

                                         Figure 11.7             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In Sweden, unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average
                                         population. They also make up a relatively larger share of the employees in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry will


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        83



                                         mostly benefit the unskilled workers and bring their unemployment rate closer
                                         to the country average.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        84




                                         12              Klaipeda




                                         12.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         25,000 passengers visited Klaipeda in 2006, which is 76% more than in 2004
                                         and more than 400% more compared to 2000. The number of calls has in-
                                         creased with 200% from 15 in 2000 to 48 in 2006.

                                         The development in traffic for Klaipeda is illustrated in Figure 12.1 and Figure
                                         12.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       85



                                         Figure 12.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Klaipeda

                                                       70

                                                       60

                                                       50

                                                       40

                                                       30

                                                       20

                                                       10

                                                         0
                                                                2000          2001          2002          2003         2004    2005    2006

                                                        Passengers (1000)                            Calls               Turnarounds



                                         Figure 12.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Klaipeda




                                                         40%

                                                         30%
                                                         20%
                                                         10%
                                                             0%
                                                                         Passengers                           Calls            Turnarounds
                                                        -10%


                                                              Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         The figure below shows the size of Klaipeda compared to all Cruise Baltic
                                         ports. With 1% of the passengers Klaipeda is the 11th largest port member in
                                         Cruise Baltic.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     86



                                         Figure 12.3             Size of Klaipeda relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         12.2            Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on Klaipeda is illustrated in Table 12.1.

                                         The 25,000 passengers spend on average 50 - 75 EUR in the city totalling 1.3 to
                                         1.9 mill. EUR.

                                         Table 12.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  25,014
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 50 - 75
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             1.3 - 1.9




                                         Table 12.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  0.5
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                          0.0
                                           Total                                                                    0.5



                                         Table 12.3 includes the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the
                                         cruise industry generates a direct and indirect turnover of 2.1 to 2.9 mill. EUR.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                   87



                                         Table 12.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                                  1.8 - 2.4
                                           Indirect effects                                                                0.3 - 0.4
                                           Total effects                                                                   2.1 - 2.9



                                         In Klaipeda there is no knowledge as to what the cruise lines buy when in port.

                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 12.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                           Jobs per mill. EUR                                                            23.9 - 39.9
                                           Jobs created                                                                        51 - 114



                                         The table illustrates that the cruise industry generates between 50 and 110 jobs
                                         in Klaipeda through direct and indirect effects.


                                         12.3            Environmental impact
                                         Klaipeda's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise and
                                         waste is given below.

                                         The figure shows that Klaipeda does not see the environmental issues as a hot
                                         topic now nor a restricting factor in the future.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC              .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               88



                                         Figure 12.4             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         12.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Lithuania are shown in the figure below.

                                         Figure 12.5             Unemployment rates for Lithuania


                                                   16.0

                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                     8.0

                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                                Unskilled w orkers                Short education                  Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                  89



                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates.

                                         There is no data available for the share of unskilled workers in the tourism in-
                                         dustry for Lithuania.

                                         The figure below shows the share of skilled workers in the tourism industry.

                                         Figure 12.6             The share of skilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively17.



                                                        100%
                                                         90%
                                                         80%
                                                         70%
                                                         60%
                                                         50%
                                                         40%
                                                         30%
                                                         20%
                                                         10%
                                                          0%
                                                                        Share of (ISCED 3-4) w orkers Share of (ISCED 3-4) w orkers in
                                                                       employed in the tourism industry    the active population




                                         Skilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Lithuania. This implies that growth in the cruise and
                                         tourist industry in Klaipeda will reduce the unemployment rate for these
                                         groups.




                                         17
                                           ISCED: International Standard Classification of Education by Unesco. Code 3: (Upper)
                                         secondary education; Code 4: Post-secondary non tertiary education.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC             .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        90




                                                    "The last three years has seen a real change in attitude at the
                                                    Town Hall. While the politicians used to see heavy industry as
                                                    the main way of ensuring growth in our region, they now real-
                                                    ise that tourism is as an important and growing contributor to
                                                    our society.

                                                    We think that the fact that our three small Baltic states joined
                                                    the EU and NATO raised the awareness among potential
                                                    guests, because from having been a port, which was sometimes
                                                    visited, we are now a fixed item on the itinerary of several
                                                    American and British shipping lines.

                                                    Naturally this has a direct and indirect economic effect on the
                                                    whole district, and certainly also on my company. We have this
                                                    year grown by 150%."

                                                    Mrs Miglute Hollyday, President, "Klaipedos Meja", Lithuania




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        91




                                         13              Malmö




                                         13.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         Malmö is a new cruise destination. In its first year, 2005, Malmö serviced 2
                                         calls and 523 passengers. In its second year, Malmö served 1,350 passengers
                                         and 4 calls.

                                         Malmö is the smallest port in Cruise Baltic.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                         92



                                         Figure 13.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Malmö



                                           5
                                           4
                                           3
                                           2
                                           1
                                           0
                                                    2000             2001            2002             2003             2004    2005     2006


                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 13.2             Size of Malmö relative to other ports


                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                                Turnarounds 2006




                                         13.2            Economic impact
                                         Given the new status as a cruise destination the economic impact on Malmö is
                                         limited. First, the direct economic impact is assessed.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                             93



                                         Table 13.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                           1,350
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                                      1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                         50 - 75
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                                     0.1 - 0.1




                                         Table 13.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                          Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                     0.0
                                          Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                             0.0

                                          Total                                                                       0.0



                                         Given the estimated average spending per day per passenger, the direct eco-
                                         nomic impact amounts to in the region of 0.1 mill. EUR.

                                         The direct economic impacts lead to indirect impacts, too.

                                         Table 13.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                        0.1 - 0.1
                                           Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                          0-0
                                           Total effects, mill. EUR                                                         0.1 - 0.1



                                         In total, the passengers generate a direct and indirect turnover of roughly 0.1
                                         mill. EUR plus the turnover generated directly by the cruise lines.

                                         The amount of local sales is very limited in Malmö.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                        .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                 94



                                         Figure 13.3             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                        Malmö




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 13.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2005

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.1 - 15.1
                                          Jobs created                                                                              1-2



                                         The table shows that the cruise industry has not affected the number of jobs in
                                         Malmö significantly yet.


                                         13.3            Environmental impact
                                         The figure below shows that, besides air pollution, Malmö does not see envi-
                                         ronmental issues as a hot topic now nor a restricting factor in the future. Given
                                         its new status as a cruise destination and the low number of calls this is not sur-
                                         prising.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               95



                                         Figure 13.4             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         13.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for three groups of educational level in Sweden are
                                         given in the figure below.

                                         Figure 13.5             Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0
                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education                   Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            96



                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are strikingly higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Sweden.

                                         Figure 13.6 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population in Sweden.

                                         Figure 13.6             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In Sweden, unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average
                                         population. They also make up a relatively larger share of the employees in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry will
                                         mostly benefit the unskilled workers and bring their unemployment rate closer
                                         to the country average.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        97




                                         14              Mariehamn




                                         14.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 3,366 cruise passengers visited Mariehamn. This was 101% more than
                                         in 2000. In the same period the number of calls increased with 200%.

                                         The development in the number of cruise passengers and port calls is illustrated
                                         in Figure 14.1 and Figure 14.2




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       98



                                         Figure 14.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Mariehamn



                                           40
                                           30
                                           20
                                           10
                                             0
                                                      2000            2001             2002            2003            2004    2005    2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 14.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Mariehamn




                                                           40,0%
                                                           20,0%
                                                             0,0%
                                                         -20,0%               Passengers                          Calls         Turnarounds

                                                         -40,0%

                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Figure 14.3 shows the size of Mariehamn compared to all Cruise Baltic ports.
                                         Mariehamn is one of the five smallest port members in Cruise Baltic.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     99



                                         Figure 14.3             Size of Mariehamn relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         14.2            Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on Mariehamn is illustrated in Table
                                         14.1 and Table 14.2.

                                         The 3,366 passengers spend on average 100 - 125 EUR in the city totalling 0.3
                                         to 0.4 mill. EUR

                                         Table 14.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                   3,366
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                               100 - 125
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             0.3 - 0.4




                                         Table 14.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                   0.0
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                            na
                                           Total                                                                     0.0



                                         Table 14.3 include the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the
                                         cruise industry generates a direct and indirect turnover of 0.4 to 0.5 mill. EUR.
                                         This is likely to be on the low side as no date for cruise line spending exists.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                100



                                         Table 14.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                          Effects                                                        Range, mill. EUR
                                          Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                            0.3 - 0.4
                                          Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                          0.1 - 0.1

                                          Total effects, mill. EUR                                                             0.4 - 0.5



                                         The figure below shows cruise lines' local purchases in Mariehamn. Besides the
                                         shown product categories cruise lines also buy fresh water and waste handling
                                         service in Mariehamn.

                                         Figure 14.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                     Mariehamn




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 14.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2005

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.1 - 15.1
                                          Jobs created                                                                              4-8



                                         Table 14.4 shows that few jobs in Mariehamn depend on the cruise industry.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               101



                                         14.3            Environmental impact
                                         Figure 14.5 summarizes Mariehamn's view on specific environmental issues.
                                         Especially waste at sea is a hot topic in the city at the moment and may be a
                                         restricting factor within the next 5 years.

                                         Figure 14.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         14.4            Social impact
                                         Figure 14.6 shows the unemployment rates in Finland for different groups.

                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates. Moreover, unskilled workers are significantly more likely to be
                                         unemployed than the average person.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            102



                                         Figure 14.6             Unemployment rates for Finland


                                                   16.0

                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     8.0

                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Figure 14.7             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population.
                                         They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in
                                         Mariehamn will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        103




                                         15              Oslo




                                         15.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 close to 206,000 passengers visited Oslo in Norway, which was 90%
                                         more than in the year 2000. In the same period the number of calls increased by
                                         39% from 112 calls in 2000 to 156 in 2006.

                                         The development in cruise traffic is illustrated in Figure 15.1 and Figure 15.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       104



                                         Figure 15.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Oslo




                                           250
                                           200
                                           150
                                           100
                                             50
                                                0
                                                        2000            2001           2002            2003            2004     2005   2006
                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 15.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Oslo




                                                          25%
                                                          20%
                                                          15%
                                                          10%
                                                           5%
                                                            0%
                                                                         Passengers                          Calls             Turnarounds


                                                    Annual growth 2000-2006                               Growth 2004-2006




                                         Oslo is the 6th largest member of Cruise Baltic measured by the number of
                                         passengers. The port accounts for about 9% of the total number of passengers
                                         and 7% of calls to Cruise Baltic ports.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                   105



                                         Figure 15.3             Size of Oslo relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         The economic impact of the cruise industry on Oslo is estimated below.


                                         15.2            Economic impact
                                         As explained in section 4.1 there are both direct and indirect economic impacts
                                         of the cruise industry on a city.

                                         A recent study18 shows that cruise passengers in Oslo on average spend 45
                                         EUR. This is a relatively low figure compared to other destination and may re-
                                         flect that passenger have relatively little time in Oslo, a general conception that
                                         Oslo is an expensive city and that Oslo often is the final destination on a cruise
                                         trip.

                                         Table 15.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                             Number of passengers                                                               206,234
                                             Average duration of stay, days                                                          1
                                             Spending per day, EUR                                                                44.65
                                             Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                               9.2




                                         Table 15.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                             Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                 5.0a
                                             Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                         1.5b

                                             Total                                                                    6.4
                                         a
                                          Including revenue at 'Kystverket', Oslo Havn and crew spending b Including 'Superyachts' and 'Other
                                         spending'

                                         18
                                          ”Analyse av cruiseturismens betydning for Oslo”, november 2006, made by
                                         TØI/Horwath Consulting on behalf of the municipality of Oslo.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC              .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    106



                                         Table 15.1 and Table 15.2 summarize the estimated direct impacts of the cruise
                                         industry on Oslo. The revenue generated directly from passenger spending
                                         amounts to approximately 15.6 mill. EUR.

                                         Table 15.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                          Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                               15.6
                                          Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                              2.9

                                          Total effects, mill. EUR                                                                18.5



                                         Table 15.3 summarizes the cruise industry's direct and indirect impact on Oslo.

                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 15.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                    8 - 13.4
                                          Jobs created                                                                         149 - 248



                                         The estimated impact on the employment in Oslo is displayed in Table 15.4. It
                                         is estimated that a total of 149 to 248 jobs in the city are based on the cruise
                                         industry.


                                         15.3            Environmental impact
                                         Port of Oslo's evaluation of four environmental issues is given below.

                                         The figure shows that noise and air pollution are the most critical environ-
                                         mental issues in Oslo and may be a restricting factor in the future.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               107



                                         Figure 15.4             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         15.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Norway are shown below.

                                         Figure 15.5             Unemployment rates for Norway


                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0

                                                     6.0

                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education                   Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            108



                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Norway. In general the unemployment rate is lower the
                                         longer the education.

                                         Figure 15.6 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population.

                                         Figure 15.6             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population.
                                         They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in
                                         Oslo will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        109




                                         16              Riga




                                         16.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         Close to 82,000 passengers visited Riga in 2006, which is almost 138% more
                                         than in 2000. In the same period the number of calls has increased with 53%
                                         from 38 in 2000 to 58 in 2006.

                                         The development in traffic for Riga is illustrated in Figure 16.1 and Figure
                                         16.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      110



                                         Figure 16.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Riga

                                                        200
                                                        180
                                                        160
                                                        140
                                                        120
                                                        100
                                                         80
                                                         60
                                                         40
                                                         20
                                                          0
                                                                   2000          2001         2002         2003         2004   2005   2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                            Calls               Turnarounds




                                         Figure 16.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Riga




                                                          20%
                                                          10%
                                                             0%
                                                         -10%             Passengers                          Calls            Turnarounds

                                                         -20%
                                                         -30%

                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         The figure below shows the size of Riga compared to all Cruise Baltic ports.
                                         With approximately 4% of the total passengers Riga is the 9th largest port
                                         member in Cruise Baltic.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     111



                                         Figure 16.3             Size of Riga relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         16.2            Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on Riga is illustrated in Table 16.1.

                                         The 24.000 passengers spend on average 50 - 75 EUR in the city totalling 4.1 to
                                         6.1 mill. EUR.

                                         Table 16.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  81,654
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 50 - 75
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             4.1 - 6.1




                                         Table 16.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                    na
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                            na
                                           Total                                                                      na



                                         Table 16.3 includes the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the
                                         cruise industry generates a direct and indirect turnover of 4.8 to 7.3 mill. EUR.
                                         This estimate is on the low side as no data for port revenue and cruise line
                                         spending exists.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                112



                                         Table 16.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                                 4.1 - 6.1
                                           Indirect effects                                                               0.8 - 1.1
                                           Total effects                                                                  4.8 - 7.3



                                         The figure below shows the characteristics of cruise lines' local purchases. Es-
                                         pecially food and beverages are bought locally

                                         Figure 16.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                          Riga




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 16.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                               23.6 - 39.4
                                          Jobs created                                                                         114 - 286



                                         Table 16.4 shows that the cruise industry generates between 114 and 286 jobs
                                         in Riga through direct and indirect effects.


                                         16.3            Environmental impact
                                         Riga's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise and waste is
                                         given below.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               113



                                         The figure shows that Riga does not see the environmental issues as a hot topic
                                         now nor a restricting factor in the future.

                                         Figure 16.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         16.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Latvia are shown in the figure below.

                                         Figure 16.6             Unemployment rates for Latvia


                                                   16.0

                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                       Average
                                                    8.0

                                                    6.0

                                                    4.0

                                                    2.0

                                                    0.0
                                                              Unskilled workers               Short education                   Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                             114



                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates.

                                         There is no data available for the share of unskilled workers in the tourism in-
                                         dustry for Latvia.

                                         The figure below shows the share of skilled workers in the tourism industry.

                                         Figure 16.7             The share of skilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively19.


                                                 100%
                                                   90%
                                                   80%
                                                   70%
                                                   60%
                                                   50%
                                                   40%
                                                   30%
                                                   20%
                                                   10%
                                                     0%
                                                               Share of (ISCED 3-4) workers                       Share of (ISCED 3-4) workers in
                                                              employed in the tourism industry                         the active population


                                         The growth in the cruise and tourist industries in Riga will generally reduce the
                                         unemployment rate for skilled and unskilled workers.




                                         19
                                           ISCED: International Standard Classification of Education by Unesco. Code 3: (Upper)
                                         secondary education; Code 4: Post-secondary non tertiary education.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                        .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        115




                                         17              Rostock




                                         17.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 approximately 143,000 passengers visited Rostock in Germany, which
                                         was 172% more than in the year 2000. In the same period the number of calls
                                         increased by close to 200% from 47 calls in 2000 to 138 in 2006.

                                         The development in cruise traffic is illustrated in the next two figures.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                         116



                                         Figure 17.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Rostock




                                           160
                                           140
                                           120
                                           100
                                            80
                                            60
                                            40
                                            20
                                             0
                                                        2000           2001            2002           2003           2004         2005   2006

                                                            Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 17.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Rostock




                                                       400%
                                                       300%

                                                       200%
                                                       100%
                                                           0%
                                                                         Passengers                          Calls                Turnarounds

                                                           Annual growth 2000-2006                                Growth 2004-2006




                                         Rostock is the 7th largest member of Cruise Baltic measured by the number of
                                         passengers. The port accounts for 6% of the total number of passengers and 6%
                                         of calls to Cruise Baltic ports. Rostock is also a turnaround destination with
                                         24% of all turnarounds.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                    .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     117



                                         Figure 17.3             Size of Rostock relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         The economic impact of the cruise industry on Rostock is estimated below.


                                         17.2            Economic impact
                                         As explained in section 4.1 there are both direct and indirect economic impacts
                                         of the cruise industry on a city.

                                         It is estimated that cruise passengers in Rostock on average spend 50 - 75 EUR
                                         per day.

                                         Table 17.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                 143,000
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 50 - 75
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            7.2 - 10.7




                                         Table 17.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                   1.5
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                            na
                                           Total                                                                     1.5



                                         Table 17.1 and Table 17.2 summarize the estimated direct impacts of the cruise
                                         industry on Rostock. The revenue generated directly from passenger spending
                                         amounts to approximately 7.2 to 10.7 mill. EUR. The port revenue is estimated
                                         to 1.5 mill. EUR.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                118



                                         Table 17.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effect                                                        Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                                 8.7 - 12.2
                                           Indirect effects                                                                1.6 - 2.3
                                           Total effects                                                                10.2 - 14.5



                                         The table above shows the impact on Rostock including indirect effects. Since
                                         no estimate of cruise spending is available the numbers are likely to be on the
                                         low side.

                                         Figure 17.4 illustrates the local purchases by cruise ships in Rostock.

                                         Figure 17.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                       Rostock




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 17.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   10 - 16.7
                                          Jobs created                                                                         103 - 242



                                         The estimated impact on the employment in Rostock is displayed in Table 17.4.
                                         It is estimated that a total of 103 to 242 jobs in the city are based on the cruise
                                         industry.



\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               119



                                         17.3            Environmental impact
                                         Rostocks's evaluation of the importance of the environmental issues: air pollu-
                                         tion, noise and waste is given below.

                                         The figure shows that Rostock does not consider the environmental issues as a
                                         hot topic now nor a restricting factor in the future.

                                         Figure 17.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         17.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for different educational groups are shown in Figure
                                         17.6




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            120



                                         Figure 17.6             Unemployment rates for Germany


                                                   25.0


                                                   20.0


                                                   15.0

                                                                                                                                       Average
                                                   10.0


                                                     5.0


                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Germany.

                                         Figure 17.7 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population.

                                         Figure 17.7             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population
                                         in Germany. They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers em-
                                         ployed in the tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        121



                                         industry in Rostock especially will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled
                                         workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        122




                                         18              Rønne




                                         18.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         About 16,000 passengers visited Rønne in 2006, which is 36% more than in
                                         2000. The number of calls has increased with 26% in the same period.

                                         The development in traffic for Rønne is illustrated in Figure 18.1 and Figure
                                         18.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                             123



                                         Figure 18.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Rønne




                                                50
                                                40
                                                30
                                                20
                                                10
                                                   0
                                                           2000           2001            2002           2003            2004       2005     2006

                                                                 Passengers (1000)                             Calls              Turnarounds




                                         Figure 18.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Rønne




                                                  10%
                                                   5%
                                                   0%
                                                  -5%             Passengers                          Calls                    Turnarounds
                                                 -10%
                                                 -15%
                                                 -20%


                                                           Annual growth 2000-2006                                Growth 2004-2006




                                         Rønne is one of the smaller destinations in Cruise Baltic. It accounts for less
                                         than 1% of the total passengers and 1.5% of the calls to Cruise Baltic ports.
                                         This places the city as the 13th largest destination in the co-operation.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                        .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    124



                                         Figure 18.3             Size of Rønne relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         The cruise passengers' economic impact on Rønne is estimated below.


                                         18.2            Economic impact
                                         Table 18.1 and Table 18.2 summarize the estimated direct impacts of the cruise
                                         industry on Rønne.

                                         Table 18.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  16,311
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                             1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                75 - 125
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                              1.2 - 2




                                         Table 18.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                   na
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                           na
                                           Total                                                                     na



                                         Passengers visiting Rønne spend on average 75-125 EUR. The direct economic
                                         impact amounts to between 1.2 and 2 mill. EUR. As no data for port revenue
                                         and cruise line spending is available this may be underestimated.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                    125



                                         Table 18.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effect                                                        Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                           1.2 - 2
                                           Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                    0.2 - 0.4
                                           Total effects, mill. EUR                                                       1.4 - 2.4



                                         Including indirect effects the cruise industry accounts for a turnover of 1.4 to
                                         2.4 mill. EUR.

                                         There is no available information about the characteristics of the local pur-
                                         chases by cruise ships in Rønne.

                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 18.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                    8.4 - 14
                                          Jobs created                                                                           12 - 34



                                         Table 18.4 shows that the cruise industry generates between 12 and 34 jobs in
                                         Rønne.


                                         18.3            Environmental impact
                                         Rønne's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise, and waste
                                         is given below

                                         Waste and air pollution are the most concerned environmental topics in Rønne.
                                         Waste at port is likely to be a restricting factor in the future.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC               .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               126



                                         Figure 18.4             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         18.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Denmark are shown below.

                                         Figure 18.5             Unemployment rates for Denmark


                                                   8.0

                                                   7.0

                                                   6.0

                                                   5.0
                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                   4.0

                                                   3.0

                                                   2.0

                                                   1.0

                                                   0.0
                                                              Unskilled workers                 Short education                    Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            127



                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Denmark.

                                         Figure 18.6 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population.

                                         Figure 18.6             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population.
                                         They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in
                                         Rønne will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        128




                                         19              St. Petersburg




                                         19.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 more than 300,000 passengers visited St. Petersburg in Russia which
                                         was about 108% more than in the year 2000. In the same period the number of
                                         calls increased by 26% from 238 calls in 2000 to 299 in 2006.

                                         The development in cruise traffic is illustrated below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       129



                                         Figure 19.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in St. Petersburg




                                                  400

                                                  300

                                                  200

                                                  100

                                                       0
                                                               2000          2001           2002          2003           2004   2005   2006
                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 19.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in St. Peters-
                                                                 burg




                                                    15%

                                                    10%

                                                      5%

                                                      0%
                                                                      Passengers                              Calls             Turnarounds
                                                     -5%

                                                           Annual growth 2000-2006                                Growth 2004-2006




                                         St. Petersburg is the 3rd largest member of Cruise Baltic measured by the
                                         number of passengers. The port accounts for about 14% of the total number of
                                         passengers and 13% of the calls to Cruise Baltic ports.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      130



                                         Figure 19.3             Size of St. Petersburg relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                          Turnarounds 2006




                                         The economic impact of the cruise industry on St. Petersburg is estimated be-
                                         low.


                                         19.2            Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on St. Petersburg is illustrated in Table
                                         19.1 and Table 19.2.

                                         The 306,000 passengers spend on average 125 - 150 EUR per day in the 2 days
                                         they stay on average. In total passengers spend approximately 75 to 90 mill.
                                         EUR in St. Petersburg in 2006

                                         Table 19.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2005

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  305,835
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                               2
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                125 - 150
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            76.5 - 91.8




                                         Table 19.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  3.4
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                       12.1*
                                           Total                                                                  15.5

                                         * Not including costs for fuel to secure consistency with other ports/cities.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                131



                                         Table 19.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                               92 - 107.3
                                           Indirect effects                                                            16.9 - 19.8
                                           Total effects                                                              108.9 - 127



                                         Table 19.3 includes the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the
                                         cruise industry generates a direct and indirect turnover of 109 to 127 mill. EUR
                                         in the city. The high total effect is due to the fact that passengers stay 2 days in
                                         St. Petersburg on average.

                                         Figure 19.4 illustrates the cruise lines' local purchases. Especially fuel is bought
                                         locally in St. Petersburg. Water (not shown) is another important commodity.

                                         Figure 19.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                   St. Petersburg




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 19.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                           Jobs per mill. EUR                                                            28.3 - 47.1
                                           Jobs created                                                                3082 - 5990




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               132



                                         Table 19.4 shows that between 3,100 and 6,000 jobs in St. Petersburg depend
                                         on the cruise industry.


                                         19.3            Environmental impact
                                         St. Petersburg's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise, and
                                         waste is given below.

                                         St. Petersburg does not consider environmental issues as a hot issue now.
                                         Waste at port may be a restricting factor in the future.

                                         Figure 19.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         19.4            Social impact
                                         Figure 19.6 illustrates the unemployment rates for Russia in 2000.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       133



                                         Figure 19.6             Unemployment rates for Russia, 2000


                                                    18.0
                                                    16.0
                                                    14.0
                                                    12.0
                                                                                                                                    Average
                                                    10.0
                                                      8.0
                                                      6.0
                                                      4.0
                                                      2.0
                                                      0.0
                                                                Unskilled workers                Short education               Academics


                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Russia. Unemployment rates are generally lower in St.
                                         Petersburg than in Russia on average. In 2001 the unemployment rate in St. Pe-
                                         tersburg was about half of the country average.

                                         People with short educations are generally more unemployed than people with
                                         high education in St. Petersburg. It is assessed that people with short educations
                                         also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the tourism
                                         industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in St. Pe-
                                         tersburg will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        134




                                                    "Today we have about 70% of the market, and about 40 people
                                                    working for us on a permanent basis. This means that in the last
                                                    few years we have grown 6-700%. We are one of the main op-
                                                    erators here in St. Petersburg and we work with all the major
                                                    shipping lines. In the summer we handle about five to nine
                                                    ships every day.

                                                    I find, and I think many people here in the city would agree
                                                    with me, that the strong growth in the cruise industry is a
                                                    mixed blessing. For instance, the museums of St. Petersburg
                                                    have been given a major financial boost by the cruise guests.

                                                    On the other hand, they are also exposed to very hard wear.
                                                    And the seasonal nature of employment - as is the situation in
                                                    these latitudes - is also tough for many people."

                                                    Mrs Helen Malchenok, General Director, Arctur Travel, Russia




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        135




                                         20              Stockholm




                                         20.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         Figure 20.1 and Figure 20.2 show the development in traffic for Stockholm
                                         from 2000 to 2006. In 2006 approximately 287,000 passengers visited Stock-
                                         holm, which is close to 83% more than in 2000. In the same period the number
                                         of calls has increased with 44% while the number of turnarounds has decreased
                                         with 37%. This is mainly due to exceptional many turnarounds in 2000 and
                                         from 2001 to 2005 the number of turnarounds increased with 21%.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                       136



                                         Figure 20.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Stockholm




                                                   350
                                                   300
                                                   250
                                                   200
                                                   150
                                                   100
                                                    50
                                                     0
                                                               2000          2001           2002          2003           2004   2005   2006
                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 20.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Stockholm




                                                     40%
                                                     30%
                                                     20%
                                                     10%
                                                        0%
                                                                      Passengers                              Calls             Turnarounds

                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Figure 20.3 illustrates the size of Stockholm compared to other Cruise Baltic
                                         Ports. Stockholm is a turnaround destination and accounts for 14% of Cruise
                                         Baltic ports' turnaround. Compared to other Cruise Baltic ports Stockholm is
                                         the 4th largest measured on passengers where it has 13%.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                  .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      137



                                         Figure 20.3             Size of Stockholm relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                          Turnarounds 2006




                                         20.2            Economic impact
                                         The economic impact on Stockholm of the cruise industry is estimated on the
                                         basis of the approach outlined in section 4.1. First, the direct economic impact
                                         is assessed.

                                         Table 20.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  287,000
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                               1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 75 - 105
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            21.5 - 30.1




                                         Table 20.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  2.0
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                           na
                                           Total                                                                    2.0



                                         Given the estimated average spending per day per passenger, the direct eco-
                                         nomic impact amounts to between 23.5 and 32.1 mill. EUR (Table 20.1 plus
                                         Table 20.2). These figures may be on the low side due to the fact that no esti-
                                         mates on cruise line spending exist.

                                         The direct economic impacts lead to indirect impacts, too.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                138



                                         Table 20.3              Total direct and indirect economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                              23.5 - 32.1
                                           Indirect effects                                                               4.3 - 5.9
                                           Total effects                                                               27.9 - 38.1



                                         In total, the cruise industry is estimated to generate revenue of between 27.9
                                         mill. EUR and 38.1 mill. EUR.

                                         The characteristics of cruise lines' local purchases are illustrated below. As a
                                         turnaround destination Stockholm especially helps cruise ships with luggage
                                         handling.

                                         Figure 20.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                     Stockholm




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 20.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.1 - 15.1
                                          Jobs created                                                                         253 - 575



                                         The table shows that the cruise industry at least generates 250 jobs in Stock-
                                         holm and maybe up to more than 500 jobs.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               139



                                         20.3            Environmental impact
                                         Stockholm's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise and
                                         waste is given below.

                                         The figure shows that some of the environmental issues are a hot topic in
                                         Stockholm. They are, however, not expected to be too much of a restricting fac-
                                         tor in the future.

                                         Figure 20.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         Stockholm cooperates with local groups - NGOs - to discuss environmental ef-
                                         fects from the cruise activities.


                                         20.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for three groups of educational level in Sweden are
                                         given in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            140



                                         Figure 20.6             Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are strikingly higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Sweden.

                                         Figure 20.7 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population in Sweden.

                                         Figure 20.7             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In Sweden, unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average
                                         population. They also make up a relatively larger share of the employees in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry will


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        141



                                         mostly benefit the unskilled workers and bring their unemployment rate closer
                                         to the country average.



                                                    "The growing cruise industry around the Baltic Sea has natu-
                                                    rally had an effect on our business. It has increased the pressure
                                                    on us quite significantly, because more and more ports are
                                                    added to the cruise destinations on offer.

                                                    This means that we are spreading our geographical network so
                                                    that we can meet the new demands. From being represented on
                                                    the west coast only, we now also have offices in Stockholm and
                                                    are currently thinking about opening up in other ports on the
                                                    eastern coast."

                                                    Mr. Jan Gustavsson, General Manager of Lindholm Shipping AB Sweden




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        142




                                         21              Tallinn




                                         21.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         More than 307,000 passengers visited Tallinn in 2006, which is 181% more
                                         than in 2000. In the same period the number of calls has increased with 61%
                                         from 181 in 2000 to 292 in 2006.

                                         The development in traffic for Tallinn is illustrated below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      143



                                         Figure 21.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Tallinn




                                                     400
                                                     300
                                                     200
                                                     100
                                                         0
                                                                 2000          2001          2002         2003          2004   2005   2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 21.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Tallinn




                                                      25%
                                                      20%
                                                      15%
                                                      10%
                                                       5%
                                                       0%
                                                                       Passengers                             Calls            Turnarounds
                                                  Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         The figure below shows the size of Tallinn compared to all Cruise Baltic ports.
                                         With approximately 14% of the total passengers, Tallinn is the 2nd largest
                                         member port in Cruise Baltic.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      144



                                         Figure 21.3             Size of Tallinn relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                          Turnarounds 2006




                                         21.2            Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on Tallinn is illustrated in Table 21.1.

                                         The 307,500 passengers spend on average 4020 - 50 EUR in the city totalling 12
                                         to 15 mill. EUR.

                                         Table 21.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  307,500
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                               1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                  40 - 50
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            12.3 - 15.4




                                         Table 21.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                           Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                  2.5
                                           Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                           na
                                           Total                                                                    2.5



                                         Table 21.3 includes the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the
                                         cruise industry generates a direct and indirect turnover of 18 to 21 mill. EUR.
                                         This estimate is on the low side as no data for port revenue and cruise line
                                         spending exists.



                                         20
                                            Source: Port of Tallinn, excursions booked via cruise line or on internet not
                                         included.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                145



                                         Table 21.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                           Effects                                                       Range, mill. EUR
                                           Direct effects                                                              14.8 - 17.9
                                           Indirect effects                                                                2.7 - 3.3
                                           Total effects                                                               17.5 - 21.2



                                         The figure below shows the characteristics of cruise lines' local purchases. Es-
                                         pecially food and beverages are bought locally

                                         Figure 21.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                         Talinn




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 21.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                               20.1 - 33.5
                                          Jobs created                                                                         352 - 709



                                         Table 21.4 shows that the cruise industry generates between 350 and 700 jobs
                                         in Tallinn through direct and indirect effects.


                                         21.3            Environmental impact
                                         Tallinn's evaluation of the environmental issues: air pollution, noise and waste
                                         is given below.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               146



                                         The figure shows that environmental issues are a hot topic in Tallinn at the
                                         moment. The port believes waste and noise will be a restricting factor in the
                                         future.

                                         Figure 21.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         21.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for Estonia are shown in the figure below.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                           147



                                         Figure 21.6             Unemployment rates for Estonia


                                                   16.0

                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                     Average
                                                     8.0

                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers               Short education                 Academics




                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates.

                                         There is no data available for the share of unskilled workers in the tourism in-
                                         dustry for Estonia.

                                         The figure below shows the share of skilled workers in the tourism industry.

                                         Figure 21.7             The share of skilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively21.


                                                 100%
                                                  90%
                                                  80%
                                                  70%
                                                  60%
                                                  50%
                                                  40%
                                                  30%
                                                  20%
                                                  10%
                                                    0%
                                                               Share of (ISCED 3-4) workers                     Share of (ISCED 3-4) workers in
                                                              employed in the tourism industry                       the active population


                                         21
                                           ISCED: International Standard Classification of Education by Unesco. Code 3: (Upper)
                                         secondary education; Code 4: Post-secondary non tertiary education.


\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                      .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        148



                                         Skilled workers have unemployment rates, which are higher than the average
                                         unemployment rate for Estonia. This implies that growth in the cruise and tour-
                                         ist industry in Tallinn will reduce the unemployment rate for these groups.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        149




                                         22              Turku




                                         22.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         In 2006 approximately 3,300 cruise passengers visited Turku. This was 42%
                                         less than in 2000 and 66% less than in 2005.

                                         The development in the number of cruise passengers and port calls is illustrated
                                         in Figure 22.1 and Figure 22.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      150



                                         Figure 22.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Turku




                                                      20
                                                      15
                                                      10
                                                        5
                                                        0
                                                               2000          2001          2002          2003          2004    2005   2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                             Calls                Turnarounds




                                         Figure 22.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Turku




                                                        20%
                                                            0%
                                                                         Passengers                           Calls            Turnarounds
                                                       -20%

                                                       -40%
                                                       -60%


                                                                 Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Figure 22.3 shows the size of Turku compared to all Cruise Baltic ports. Turku
                                         is one of the 4th smallest port members in Cruise Baltic.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     151



                                         Figure 22.3             Size of Turku relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         22.2            Economic impact
                                         The direct impact of the cruise industry on Turku is illustrated in Table 22.1
                                         and Table 23.2.

                                         The 3,300 passengers spend on average 50 - 75 EUR in the city totalling in the
                                         region of 0.2 mill. EUR

                                         Table 22.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                   3,273
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                 50 - 75
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                             0.2 - 0.2




                                         Table 22.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                          Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                     0.0
                                          Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                              na

                                          Total                                                                       0.0




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                                152



                                         Table 22.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                          Effects                                                        Range, mill. EUR
                                          Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                            0.2 - 0.3
                                          Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                              0-0

                                          Total effects, mill. EUR                                                             0.2 - 0.3



                                         Table 22.3 includes the indirect impact from the cruise industry. In total the
                                         cruise industry generates direct and indirect turnover of 0.2 to 0.3 mill. EUR in
                                         Turku. This is likely to be on the low side as no date for cruise line spending
                                         exists.

                                         The figure below shows cruise lines' local purchases in Turku.

                                         Figure 22.4             Cruise lines' local purchases

                                                                                                         Turku




                                                              Almost nothing               Small proportion                Large proportion   Almost everything

                                                             Fuel
                                                             Medical assistance including dental assistance
                                                             Luggage handling
                                                             Flowers
                                                             Beverages
                                                             Food




                                         The increase in revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent in the tourism
                                         industry.

                                         Table 22.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2005

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.9 - 16.4
                                          Jobs created                                                                              2-5



                                         Table 22.4 shows that few jobs in Turku depend on the cruise industry.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                         .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               153



                                         22.3            Environmental impact
                                         Figure 22.5 summarizes Turku's view on specific environmental issues. Espe-
                                         cially waste at port is a hot topic in the city at the moment and is likely to be a
                                         restricting factor within the next 5 years. Waste at sea is also of some concern.

                                         Figure 22.5             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         Turku cooperates with local NGOs in order to deal with environmental issues.


                                         22.4            Social impact
                                         Figure 22.6 shows the unemployment rates in Finland for different groups.

                                         The figure shows that the higher the level of education the lower the unem-
                                         ployment rates. Moreover, unskilled workers are significantly more likely to be
                                         unemployed than the average person.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            154



                                         Figure 22.6             Unemployment rates for Finland


                                                   16.0

                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0
                                                                                                                                        Average
                                                     8.0

                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education               Academics




                                         Figure 22.7             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         Unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average population.
                                         They also make up a relatively larger share of the workers employed in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry in
                                         Turku will reduce the unemployment rate for unskilled workers.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        155




                                         23              Visby




                                         23.1            Passengers, calls and turnarounds
                                         Figure 23.1 shows the development in traffic for Visby from 2000 to 2006.In
                                         2006 approximately 80,000 passengers visited Visby, which is 65% more than
                                         in 2000. In the same period the number of calls has increased from 98 to 106
                                         calls per year. The average yearly growth rate is illustrated in Figure 23.2.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                      156



                                         Figure 23.1             Number of passengers, calls and turnarounds in Visby

                                                         160
                                                         140
                                                         120
                                                         100
                                                           80
                                                           60
                                                           40
                                                           20
                                                             0
                                                                     2000 2001                2002         2003 2004           2005 2006

                                                     Passengers (1000)                            Calls               Turnarounds




                                         Figure 23.2             Growth in number of passengers, calls, and turnarounds in Visby




                                                       10%
                                                        8%
                                                        6%
                                                        4%
                                                        2%
                                                        0%
                                                                        Passengers                            Calls            Turnarounds


                                                                 Annual growth 2000-2006                                 Growth 2004-2006




                                         Figure 23.3 illustrates the size of Visby compared to other Cruise Baltic Ports.
                                         With 4% of Cruise Baltic's passengers and 5% of the calls Visby is the 10th
                                         largest destination.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                 .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     157



                                         Figure 23.3             Size of Visby relative to other ports

                          Passengers 2006                                                   Calls 2006                         Turnarounds 2006




                                         23.2            Economic impact
                                         Port of Visby estimates that passengers on average spend 75 - 125 EUR in the
                                         city. With 80,000 passengers in 2005 the direct revenue generated by cruise
                                         tourists amounts to 6.2 to 10.2 mill. EUR. Table 23.1 and Table 23.2 show the
                                         direct impact of the cruise industry on Visby.

                                         Table 23.1              Direct economic impacts due to local business supply of services, 2006

                                           Number of passengers                                                                  80,000
                                           Average duration of stay, days                                                              1
                                           Spending per day, EUR                                                                75 - 125
                                           Total revenue, mill. EUR                                                            6.0 - 10.0




                                         Table 23.2              Other direct economic impacts, 2006

                                          Port revenue, mill. EUR                                                     0.2
                                          Cruise line spending, mill. EUR                                              na

                                          Total                                                                       0.2



                                         Tourist spending generates indirect effects. Table 23.3 displays the total impact
                                         of the cruise industry on the city of Visby. Including indirect impacts the cruise
                                         industry generates between 7.4 and 12.1 mill. EUR of revenue in the city.
                                         These figures may be on the low side due to the fact that no estimates on cruise
                                         line spending exist.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                     158



                                         Table 23.3              Total economic impact, 2006

                                          Direct effects, mill. EUR                                                        6.2 - 10.2
                                          Indirect effects, mill. EUR                                                          1.1 - 1.9

                                          Total effects, mill. EUR                                                         7.4 - 12.1



                                         The effect on revenue is converted into jobs by using a country specific figure
                                         expressing the number of jobs generated per €1,000,000 spent.

                                         Table 23.4              Total jobs created due to the cruise industry, 2006

                                          Jobs per mill. EUR                                                                   9.1 - 15.1
                                          Jobs created                                                                          67 - 183



                                         Table 23.4 shows that between 67 and 183 jobs in Visby are dependent on the
                                         cruise industry.


                                         23.3            Environmental impact
                                         Visby's evaluation of four environmental issues is given below.

                                         The figure shows that noise is a hot topic in Visby today. The port has cooper-
                                         ates with local groups - NGOs - to discuss environmental effects from the
                                         cruise activities, and does not expect environmental issues to be a restricting
                                         factor within the next 5 years.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                               159



                                         Figure 23.4             To what extent do you agree that environmental factors are a hot topic
                                                                 now or will be a restricting factor in the future.




                                            Waste at sea




                                            Waste at port




                                                      Noise




                                              Air pollution


                                                                        Strongly Disagree                   Neither            Agree   Strongly
                                                                        disagree                             nor                       agree

                                                                          Hot topic now                               Restricting factor in 5 years




                                         23.4            Social impact
                                         The unemployment rates for three groups of educational level in Sweden are
                                         given in the figure below.

                                         Figure 23.5             Unemployment rates for Sweden


                                                   14.0

                                                   12.0

                                                   10.0

                                                     8.0
                                                                                                                                          Average
                                                     6.0

                                                     4.0

                                                     2.0

                                                     0.0
                                                               Unskilled workers                 Short education                   Academics




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                          .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                                            160



                                         Unskilled workers have unemployment rates, which are strikingly higher than
                                         the average unemployment rate for Sweden.

                                         Figure 23.6 displays the share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry
                                         compared to their share of the active population in Sweden.

                                         Figure 23.6             The share of unskilled workers in the tourism industry and the active
                                                                 population respectively.


                                                   50%
                                                   45%
                                                   40%
                                                   35%
                                                   30%
                                                   25%
                                                   20%
                                                   15%
                                                   10%
                                                     5%
                                                     0%
                                                                  Share of unskilled w orkers                 Share of unskilled w orkers in the
                                                                employed in the tourism industry                     active population



                                         In Sweden, unskilled workers are generally more unemployed than the average
                                         population. They also make up a relatively larger share of the employees in the
                                         tourism industry. This implies that growth in the cruise and tourist industry will
                                         mostly benefit the unskilled workers and bring their unemployment rate closer
                                         to the country average.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC                       .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        161




                                         24              References
                                         1       Bluewater Network (2000): Cruising for trouble: Stemming the tide of
                                                 cruise ship pollution.

                                         2       Dwyer, L. and P. Forsyth (1998): Economic significance of cruise tourism.
                                                 Annals of Tourism Research.

                                         3       European Cruise Council (2005): The ECC Annual Review Book.

                                         4       Frechtling and Horváth (1999): Estimating the Multiplier Effects of Tour-
                                                 ism Expenditures on a Local Economy through a Regional Input-Output
                                                 Model. Journal of Travel Research, 1999

                                         5       Gabe, T., C. Lynch, J. McConnon and T. Allen (2003): Economic impact
                                                 of cruise ship passengers in bar habour, Maine. Department of Resource
                                                 Economics and Policy, University of Maine.

                                         6       Helsinki Commission (2006): The Baltic Sea Action Plan - a new environ-
                                                 mental strategy for the Baltic Sea region.

                                         7       Miljøstyrelsen, (2003): Emissioner fra skibe i havn.

                                         8       Miljøstyrelsen (2005): Vurdering af krydstogtsskibes bidrag til luftforure-
                                                 ning. Miljøstyrelsen, 2005

                                         9       Nielsson, P. Å, C. H. Marcussen, J. Pedersen and K.M. Pedersen (2005):
                                                 Cruise tourism in the Baltic and Bothnian Sea. Center for regional and
                                                 Tourism Research, 2005

                                         10 Seatrade (2006): The Future of Cruising - Boom or Bust? A Worldwide
                                            Anaylsis to 2015

                                         11 Shippax (2006): Statistics and Outlook 2006 - The yearbook for passenger
                                            and Ro-Ro shipping.

                                         12 Silja (2004): Sustainability Report.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .
Cruise Baltic Status Report                                                                                                        162



                                         13 The center for environmental leadership in business (unknown): A
                                            SHIFTING TIDE ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES &CRUISE
                                            INDUSTRY RESPONSES.

                                         14 TØI and Horwath Consulting (2006): Analyse av cruiseturismens
                                            betydning for Oslo". November 2006. Made on behalf of the municipality
                                            of Oslo.

                                         15      VisitDenmark (2006): Ny turismeopgørelse efter satellitregnskabsmetoden.
                                                 Notat, 25. januar 2006.

                                         16 Worldbank (2006): World Development Indicators database. World Bank,
                                            1 July 2006.

                                         17 www.cruiseeurope.com

                                         18 www.europeancruisecouncil.com

                                         19 Økonomi- og Erhvervsministeriet (2006): Redegørelse af 25. januar 2006
                                            om dansk turisme.




\\Wocoinfo\info\Projekter\Baltic Cruise Project\WP Groups\WP 1\Analysis Cowi Juli 2006\Cruise Baltic status report_Final.DOC   .

				
DOCUMENT INFO