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Mobile Open Source Operating Systems Markets & Opportunities
2009-2014

Description:    This report compares and evaluates the value of the three consortiums: Symbian foundation, LiMo
                foundation and Open handset alliance (android) analysing the business models for both proprietary
                and open source.

                A six year regional forecasting suite including market share by operating system is provided as well
                as looking at relative year on year growth for smartphone operating systems. It also examines how
                the App Store approach has impacted the operating system market and investigates what the
                future plans are for the development of OS.

                Each one of the open source operating systems are fully analysed providing; history, overview,
                indicative handset vendors, technical details and how the licensing process works. The report also
                includes a overview for proprietary operating systems.


                Key questions

                - How has the recent trend towards open source impacted the rest of the value chain?
                - How will the fortunes of the main players in the operating systems market develop over the next
                six years?
                - How will the increasing openness in the operating systems market effect network operators?
                - Why has the importance of the operating system risen from the invisible to the unavoidable?
                - Will all the current operating systems survive over the forecast period?
                - Why did Nokia buy Symbian and give away all of its technology?

                Key Benefits:

                - A unique source of combined research and analysis for the mobile open source market including
                technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
                - Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
                - Unique insights: includes interviews of leading players with significant experience of the mobile
                open source market.
                - Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.

                The report analyses how money is to be made in a zero cost item and includes a chapter on key OS
                market drivers, such as finding a route to monetisation for applications, stimulating market growth
                for all members of the value chain.

                This report provides in-depth profiles of the following major players and considers who will derive
                the most market share over the next six years and in which regions; Symbian, Linux, Windows
                Mobile, Android, iPhone OS, BlackBerry and Palm as well including one-on-one interviews with RIM,
                Symbian and Lemo.

                Author:
                Catherine Bethell is an associate analyst with Juniper Research with 20 years experience in
                electronics & EDA industry focusing on support of digital simulation (Verilog/VHDL) and synthesis
                tools. She has a Msc in Microelectronics and a Bsc in Physics.



Contents:       Glossary

                Executive Summary
                - Types of Open Source OS Business Model
                - Types of Proprietary OS
                - Why Open Source?
-   The Smartphone Market
-   Figure ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
-   Table ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
-   Outlook

1. Operating Systems
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Mobile Telecoms Development
Figure 1.1: The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X Portable Cellular Phone, 1983
Figure 1.2: The Modu Mini-phone, 2008
1.3 What is an Operating System?
Figure 1.3: How Does the OS Fit into a Mobile Phone?
1.4 What is Open Source?
i. Open Source vs. Free Software
ii. Open Source Initiative
iii. The Open Source Definition
Table 1.1: The Open Source Definition
1.5 Open Source vs. Proprietary
i. Proprietary
ii. Open Source
i. The Pros & Cons
1.6 The Current Landscape
1.6.1Current Operating Systems
1.6.2 History of the Open Source Mobile OS
1.6.3 Open Source: The Historical View
Table 1.2: Timeline of Key Events in the Uptake of Open Source OSs in Mobile
Figure 1.4: Smartphone Market Share (%) by Operating System, 2008
i. Prior to June 2008
Table 1.2: Breakdown of OS by Type (Proprietary & Open Source) Prior to June 2008
Figure 1.5: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Prior to June 2008
ii. After June 2008
Figure 1.6: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Following the Announcement of the
Symbian Foundation
1.6.4 Open Source: The Way Forward?

2. The Open Source OS
2.1 Introduction
Table 2.1: Open Source OS
2.2 LiMo Foundation
2.2.1 Overview and History
Table 2.2: LiMo History
2.2.2 LiMo Users
Figure 2.1: Panasonic NTT DoCoMo FOMA P905i
Figure 2.2: The Purple Labs Purple Magic phone
2.2.3 Funding
2.2.4 Governance
Figure 2.3: The LiMo Foundation Governance Model
2.2.5 Technical Details
Figure 2.4: RI Platform Scope -The First Release Platform from LiMo
i. The Foundation Platform
Figure 2.5: LiMo Platform Architecture, January 2009
ii. Portability
iii. Test and Certification
2.2.6 Licensing
i. Foundation API
ii. Middleware
iii. Kernel
iv. Overall Picture
2.2.7 Roadmap
Figure 2.6: R2 Platform Scope
Figure 2.7: Roadmap from LiMo Foundation (April 2008)
2.3 OHA
2.3.1 Overview and History
Table: 2.3 Timeline of OHA Announcements Relating to Android
2.3.2 Users
2.3.3 Funding
2.3.4 Governance
2.3.5 Technical Aspects
Figure 2.8: The Android OS Components
2.3.6 Licensing
2.3.7 Roadmap
2.4 Symbian Foundation
2.4.1 Overview and History
i. Proprietary Symbian OS
ii. Symbian Foundation
2.4.2 Symbian Users
2.4.3 Funding
2.4.4 Governance
Figure 2.9: Symbian Foundation Governance
2.4.5 Technical Details
Figure 2.10: Symbian Foundation Assets to be Unified to Create One Platform
i. Core OS
ii. User Interface Elements
Figure 2.11: Overview of Symbian Foundation Platform
iii. Developer Support
2.4.6 Licensing of Foundations Assets
2.4.7 Roadmap
2.5 Others
2.5.1 Maemo
2.5.2 OpenMoko

3. Proprietary Solutions
3.1 Introduction
3.2 iPhone OS
3.2.1 Overview and History
3.2.2 Users & Licensing Policy
3.2.3 Business Model
3.2.4 Technical Details
i. iPhone SDK
3.2.5 Roadmap
3.3 RIM (BlackBerry) OS
3.3.1 Overview and History
3.3.2 Users & Licensing Policy
Figure 3.2: Integration of Brands with BlackBerry
3.3.3 Business Model
3.3.4 Technical Details
Figure 3.3: BlackBerry Solution Architecture
i. Application Developers
3.3.6 Roadmap
3.4 Windows Mobile
3.4.1 Overview and History
3.4.2 Users & Licensing
3.4.3 Business Model
3.4.4 Technical Details
3.4.5 Roadmap
3.5 Palm OS Family
3.5.1 Overview and History
3.5.2 Users & Licensing
3.5.3 Business Model
3.5.4 Technical Details
3.5.5 Roadmap

4. Business Models
4.1 Value of the Proprietary OS
i. The Types of Business Model
4.1.1 Apple: iPhone OS
i. The App Store
ii. The Apple Philosophy
4.1.2 RIM: BlackBerry OS
i. Partnership
ii. BlackBerry Application Storefront
iii. The “Virtual” BlackBerry
4.1.3 ACCESS: Garnet OS
4.1.4 Microsoft: Windows Mobile
4.2 Value of an Open Source OS
4.2.1 The Value Proposition for Open Source
i. Reduced Development Overhead
ii. Independence
iii. Differentiation
iv. Time to Market
v. Bug Fixes
vi. Innovation
vii. Prevention of Fragmentation
viii. Service-based Revenue Opportunities
4.3 Value Proposition in Mobile OS
4.3.1 LiMo Foundation
i. Members
ii. Third Party Application Developers
4.3.2 Google & OHA
i. Members
ii. Third Party Developers
4.3.3 Symbian Foundation
i. Members
ii. Third Party Developers
4.3.4 The Relative Value
i. Membership Fees
Figure 4.1: Direct Membership Costs for Each Group ($000)
ii. Reduction in Licence Royalty Costs
iii. Licence
iv. Governance
v. Quality, Direction and Code Management
vi. Market Value
vii. Professional Development Value
viii. Overall Value
Figure 4.2: Raw Relative Value Analysis
a. Licence
Table 4.1: Relative Value of Openness of Licence
b. Governance
Table 4.2: Relative Value of Governance
c. Quality/Code Management
Table 4.3: Relative Value of Code Management
d. Openness & Collaboration
Table 4.4: Relative Value of Openness and Collaboration
e. Market Value
Table 4.5: Relative Value of Market
f. Overall Value Analysis
Figure 4.3: Adjusted Relative Value Analysis Based on Market Share (2009)
4.3.5 Value of Each Solution
i. Direct Membership Costs
Figure 4.4: Value for Money of Membership
Table 4.6: The Relative Value for Money of Membership

5. Forecasts
5.1 Mobile Handset Shipments
Figure 5.1: Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.1: Total Number of Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Figure 5.2: Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
5.1.2 Smartphones as a Proportion of the Mobile Handset Market
Table 5.2: Percentage of New Handsets Which are Smartphones Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Figure 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
5.2 Market Share by Operating System
5.2.1 Symbian
Table 5.4: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
Figure 5.4: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.6: Year-on-year Growth (%) for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments (m) Using
Symbian OS 2008-2014
5.2.2 LiMo
Table 5.7: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-
2014
Figure 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.9: Year-on-Year Growth for Number Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo OS 2008-2014
5.2.3 Android
Table 5.10: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-
2014
Figure 5.6: Smartphones Shipments (m) With Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2

Table 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.12: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS
2008-2014
5.2.4 RIM
Table 5.13: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using RIM’s Proprietary OS Split by 8
Key Regions 2008-2014
Figure 5.7: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-
2014
Table 5.14: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-
2014
Table 5.15: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using RIM’s Proprietary OS
2008-2014
5.2.5 iPhone OS
Table 5.16: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS
Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Figure 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.17: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple’s Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by Key
Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.18: Year-on-Year Growth (%) for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Apple’s
Proprietary iPhone OS 2008-2014
5.2.6 Windows Mobile
Table 7.19: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments of Handsets Using Windows Mobile OS
Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Figure 5.9: Smartphones Shipments (m) Which use Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions
2008-2014
Table 5.20: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Microsoft’s Proprietary Windows Mobile OS Split by 8
Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.21: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Windows Mobile OS
2008-2014
Table 5.22: License Fee Cost ($) for Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014
Table 5.23: Annual Revenue ($m) from Windows Mobile Licenses Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
5.2.7 Palm OS Garnet
Table 5.24: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Palm OS Garnet Split by Key
Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.25: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions 2008- 2014
Figure 5.10: Smartphones Shipments (m) with Palm OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
5.2.8 Others
Table 5.26: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions
2008-2014
Figure 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) with Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
Table 5.27: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
5.2.9 Total Market Share
Figure 5.12: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
Table 5.28: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
5.3 Market Share by OS Type
Table 5.29: Total Number of Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Open Source and Closed Source
OS 2008-2014
Table 5.30: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Various OSs Split by Open Source, Closed
Source & Others 2008-2014

6. Who Uses What?
6.1 Membership of Projects
6.1.1 LiMo Foundation
Table 6.1: LiMo Foundation Membership – Founder Members
Table 6.2: LiMo Foundation Membership – Core Members
Table 6.3: LiMo Foundation Membership – Associate Members
6.1.2 Open Handset Alliance
Table 6.4: OHA Membership – Founder Members (January 2009)
Table 6.5: Additional Members of OHA (January 2009)
6.1.3 Symbian Foundation
Table 6.6: Symbian Foundation Membership – Founder Members (January 2009)
Table 6.7: Symbian Foundation Membership – Endorsing Members (January 2009)
Table 6.7 (cont)
6.2 Overlap
6.2.1 Device Manufacturers
Table 6.8: Device Manufacturer Membership Status, Q1 2009
6.2.2 Semiconductors
Table 6.9: Semiconductor Vendor Membership Status, Q1 2009
6.2.3 Network Operators
Table 6.10: Network Operator Membership Status
6.2.4 Software and Services Companies

7. Market Drivers
7.1 World Economics
6.1.1 Current Economic Situation
Table 7.1: Annual % Change in Real GDP for 2009 Forecasted for Far East and Asia Pacific
i. Asia
a. China
b. Japan
c. Singapore
d. South Korea
e. Taiwan
ii. Western Europe
a. The EuroZone
b. UK
iii. Eastern Europe
a. Russia
iv. North America
a. United States
b. Canada
v. South America & Caribbean
a. Africa & Middle East
b. Middle East
c. Israel
vii. Indian Sub Continent
vii. Rest of Asia Pacific
a. Australia, New Zealand
7.1.2 Future Predictions
i. Prospects for the Overall Mobile Market
a. Innovation
b. Investment in New Technology
c. Market Growth
7.2 The Impact on Operating Systems
7.2.1 Proprietary
i. Microsoft – Windows Mobile OS
a. Commoditisation
b. High Spread/Low Penetration of Market
c. Perception
d. Outcomes
ii. Apple iPhone OS
a. Cost of OS
b. History of Innovation
c. Target Market
d. Outcomes
iii. RIM
a. Target Market
b. Cost of OS
c. Market Differentiation
d. Outcomes
7.2.2 Open Source
i. LiMo
ii. Android
iii. Symbian
7.2.3 Overall Market

Appendix
- Interviews
- LiMo Foundation
- Symbian/Symbian Foundation
- Funambol
- Aricent
- ARM
- RIM
- DeviceAnywhere
- VMware
- Foehn
- Dexterra

List of Figures:

All forecasts are for 2009-2014, and include an historical estimate for 2008.

Regional forecasts cover 8 regions: North America, South America, Western Europe,

Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Sub Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle
East.

Mobile Handset Shipments
- Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Total Number of Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Percentage of New Handsets Which are Smartphones Split by 8 Key Regions
- Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions

Market Share by Operating System
- Total Number of Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Open Source and Closed Source OS
- Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Various OSs Split by Open Source, Closed Source &
Others
- Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems

Symbian
- Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions
- Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions
- Year-on-year Growth (%) for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS

LiMo
- Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Year-on-Year Growth for Number Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo OS

            Android
            - Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS

            RIM
            - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using RIM's Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using RIM's Proprietary OS

            iPhone OS
            - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Apple's Proprietary iPhone OS Split by 8 Key
            Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple's Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Year-on-Year Growth (%) for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Apple's Proprietary iPhone
            OS

            Windows Mobile
            - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments of Handsets Using Windows Mobile OS Split by 8
            Key Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Microsoft's Proprietary Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key
            Regions 2008-2014
            - Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Windows Mobile OS
            - License Fee Cost ($) for Windows Mobile OS
            - Annual Revenue ($m) from Windows Mobile Licenses Split by 8 Key Regions

            Palm OS Garnet
            - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions

            Others
            - Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions
            - Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions



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