The 2011-2016 Outlook for Smart Cars in Japan by ICONGroup

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									  The 2011-2016 Outlook for Smart Cars in
                  Japan




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                         About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across prefectures. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and
future levels of latent demand.


                                       Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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                     About ICON Group International, Inc.

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    Contents                                                                                         v


Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                            10
     1.1      Overview                                                                          10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                             10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 13
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                14
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       14
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            14
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     16
     2.1   The Latent Demand in Japan                                                           16
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted by Rank                                                        18
3       AICHI                                                                                   21
     3.1    Latent Demand by Year - Aichi                                                       21
     3.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Aichi                                                       22
     3.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aichi                                                23
4       AKITA                                                                                   25
     4.1    Latent Demand by Year - Akita                                                       25
     4.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Akita                                                       26
     4.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Akita                                                26
5       AOMORI                                                                                  27
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Aomori                                                       27
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Aomori                                                       28
     5.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aomori                                                28
6       CHIBA                                                                                   29
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Chiba                                                       29
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Chiba                                                       30
     6.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chiba                                                31
7       EHIME                                                                                   32
     7.1    Latent Demand by Year - Ehime                                                       32
     7.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Ehime                                                       33
     7.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ehime                                                33
8       FUKUI                                                                                   35
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukui                                                        35
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukui                                                        36
     8.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukui                                                 36
9       FUKUOKA                                                                                 37
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukuoka                                                      37
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukuoka                                                      38
     9.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukuoka                                               39
10      FUKUSHIMA                                                                               40
     10.1  Latent Demand by Year - Fukushima                                                    40
     10.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukushima                                                    41
     10.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukushima                                             41



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11      GIFU                                                                        43
     11.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gifu                                            43
     11.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gifu                                            44
     11.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gifu                                     45
12      GUMMA                                                                       46
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Gumma                                            46
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Gumma                                            47
     12.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gumma                                     47
13      HIROSHIMA                                                                   49
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Hiroshima                                       49
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Hiroshima                                       50
     13.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hiroshima                                50
14      HOKKAIDO                                                                    52
     14.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hokkaido                                         52
     14.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hokkaido                                         53
     14.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hokkaido                                  54
15      HYOGO                                                                       55
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hyogo                                            55
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hyogo                                            56
     15.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hyogo                                     57
16      IBARAKI                                                                     58
     16.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ibaraki                                         58
     16.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ibaraki                                         59
     16.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ibaraki                                  60
17      ISHIKAWA                                                                    61
     17.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ishikawa                                        61
     17.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ishikawa                                        62
     17.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ishikawa                                 62
18      IWATE                                                                       63
     18.1  Latent Demand by Year - Iwate                                            63
     18.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Iwate                                            64
     18.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Iwate                                     64
19      KAGAWA                                                                      66
     19.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagawa                                           66
     19.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagawa                                           67
     19.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagawa                                    67
20      KAGOSHIMA                                                                   68
     20.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagoshima                                        68
     20.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagoshima                                        69
     20.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagoshima                                 69
21      KANAGAWA                                                                    71
     21.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kanagawa                                         71
     21.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kanagawa                                         72
     21.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kanagawa                                  73
22      KOCHI                                                                       74
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kochi                                            74
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kochi                                            75


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     22.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kochi                                  75
23      KUMAMOTO                                                                   76
     23.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kumamoto                                        76
     23.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kumamoto                                        77
     23.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kumamoto                                 77
24      KYOTO                                                                      79
     24.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kyoto                                           79
     24.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kyoto                                           80
     24.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kyoto                                    80
25      MIE                                                                        82
     25.1   Latent Demand by Year - Mie                                            82
     25.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Mie                                            83
     25.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Mie                                     83
26      MIYAGI                                                                     85
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyagi                                         85
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyagi                                         86
     26.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyagi                                  86
27      MIYAZAKI                                                                   88
     27.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyazaki                                       88
     27.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyazaki                                       89
     27.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyazaki                                89
28      NAGANO                                                                     90
     28.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagano                                          90
     28.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagano                                          91
     28.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagano                                   91
29      NAGASAKI                                                                   93
     29.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagasaki                                        93
     29.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagasaki                                        94
     29.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagasaki                                 94
30      NARA                                                                       96
     30.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nara                                            96
     30.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nara                                            97
     30.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nara                                     97
31      NIIGATA                                                                    99
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Niigata                                        99
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Niigata                                       100
     31.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Niigata                                100
32      OITA                                                                      102
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Oita                                          102
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Oita                                          103
     32.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Oita                                   103
33      OKAYAMA                                                                   104
     33.1  Latent Demand by Year - Okayama                                        104
     33.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Okayama                                        105
     33.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okayama                                 105
34      OKINAWA                                                                   106
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Okinawa                                       106

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     34.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Okinawa                                      107
     34.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okinawa                               107
35      OSAKA                                                                     108
     35.1  Latent Demand by Year - Osaka                                          108
     35.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Osaka                                          109
     35.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Osaka                                   110
36      SAGA                                                                      111
     36.1   Latent Demand by Year - Saga                                          111
     36.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Saga                                          112
     36.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saga                                   112
37      SAITAMA                                                                   113
     37.1   Latent Demand by Year - Saitama                                       113
     37.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Saitama                                       114
     37.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saitama                                115
38      SHIGA                                                                     117
     38.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shiga                                         117
     38.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shiga                                         118
     38.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shiga                                  118
39      SHIMANE                                                                   120
     39.1   Latent 
								
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