The 2011-2016 Outlook for Medium-Size Disposable Diapers in Japan

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					   The 2011-2016 Outlook for Medium-Size
        Disposable Diapers in Japan




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                         About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across prefectures. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and
future levels of latent demand.


                                       Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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    Contents                                                                                         v


Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                            10
     1.1      Overview                                                                          10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                             10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 13
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                14
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       14
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            14
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     16
     2.1   The Latent Demand in Japan                                                           16
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted by Rank                                                        18
3       AICHI                                                                                   21
     3.1    Latent Demand by Year - Aichi                                                       21
     3.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Aichi                                                       22
     3.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aichi                                                23
4       AKITA                                                                                   25
     4.1    Latent Demand by Year - Akita                                                       25
     4.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Akita                                                       26
     4.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Akita                                                26
5       AOMORI                                                                                  27
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Aomori                                                       27
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Aomori                                                       28
     5.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aomori                                                28
6       CHIBA                                                                                   29
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Chiba                                                       29
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Chiba                                                       30
     6.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chiba                                                31
7       EHIME                                                                                   32
     7.1    Latent Demand by Year - Ehime                                                       32
     7.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Ehime                                                       33
     7.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ehime                                                33
8       FUKUI                                                                                   34
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukui                                                        34
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukui                                                        35
     8.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukui                                                 35
9       FUKUOKA                                                                                 36
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukuoka                                                      36
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukuoka                                                      37
     9.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukuoka                                               38
10      FUKUSHIMA                                                                               39
     10.1  Latent Demand by Year - Fukushima                                                    39
     10.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukushima                                                    40
     10.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukushima                                             40



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11      GIFU                                                                        41
     11.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gifu                                            41
     11.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gifu                                            42
     11.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gifu                                     43
12      GUMMA                                                                       44
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Gumma                                            44
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Gumma                                            45
     12.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gumma                                     45
13      HIROSHIMA                                                                   47
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Hiroshima                                       47
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Hiroshima                                       48
     13.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hiroshima                                48
14      HOKKAIDO                                                                    50
     14.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hokkaido                                         50
     14.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hokkaido                                         51
     14.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hokkaido                                  52
15      HYOGO                                                                       53
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hyogo                                            53
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hyogo                                            54
     15.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hyogo                                     55
16      IBARAKI                                                                     56
     16.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ibaraki                                         56
     16.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ibaraki                                         57
     16.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ibaraki                                  58
17      ISHIKAWA                                                                    59
     17.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ishikawa                                        59
     17.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ishikawa                                        60
     17.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ishikawa                                 60
18      IWATE                                                                       61
     18.1  Latent Demand by Year - Iwate                                            61
     18.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Iwate                                            62
     18.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Iwate                                     62
19      KAGAWA                                                                      64
     19.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagawa                                           64
     19.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagawa                                           65
     19.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagawa                                    65
20      KAGOSHIMA                                                                   66
     20.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagoshima                                        66
     20.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagoshima                                        67
     20.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagoshima                                 67
21      KANAGAWA                                                                    69
     21.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kanagawa                                         69
     21.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kanagawa                                         70
     21.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kanagawa                                  71
22      KOCHI                                                                       72
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kochi                                            72
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kochi                                            73


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     22.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kochi                                  73
23      KUMAMOTO                                                                   74
     23.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kumamoto                                        74
     23.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kumamoto                                        75
     23.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kumamoto                                 75
24      KYOTO                                                                      77
     24.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kyoto                                           77
     24.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kyoto                                           78
     24.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kyoto                                    78
25      MIE                                                                        79
     25.1   Latent Demand by Year - Mie                                            79
     25.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Mie                                            80
     25.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Mie                                     80
26      MIYAGI                                                                     82
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyagi                                         82
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyagi                                         83
     26.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyagi                                  83
27      MIYAZAKI                                                                   85
     27.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyazaki                                       85
     27.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyazaki                                       86
     27.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyazaki                                86
28      NAGANO                                                                     87
     28.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagano                                          87
     28.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagano                                          88
     28.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagano                                   88
29      NAGASAKI                                                                   90
     29.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagasaki                                        90
     29.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagasaki                                        91
     29.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagasaki                                 91
30      NARA                                                                       92
     30.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nara                                            92
     30.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nara                                            93
     30.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nara                                     93
31      NIIGATA                                                                    95
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Niigata                                        95
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Niigata                                        96
     31.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Niigata                                 96
32      OITA                                                                       98
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Oita                                           98
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Oita                                           99
     32.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Oita                                    99
33      OKAYAMA                                                                   100
     33.1  Latent Demand by Year - Okayama                                        100
     33.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Okayama                                        101
     33.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okayama                                 101
34      OKINAWA                                                                   102
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Okinawa                                       102

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     34.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Okinawa                                      103
     34.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okinawa                               103
35      OSAKA                                                                     104
     35.1  Latent Demand by Year - Osaka                                          104
     35.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Osaka                                          105
     35.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Osaka                                   106
36      SAGA                                                                      107
     36.1   Latent Demand by Year - Saga                                          107
     36.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Saga                                          108
     36.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saga                                   108
37      SAITAMA                                                                   109
     37.1   Latent Demand by Year - Saitama                                       109
     37.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Saitama                                       110
     37.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saitama                                111
38      SHIGA                                                                     113
     38.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shiga                                         113
     38.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shiga                                         114
     38.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shiga                                  114
39      SHIMANE                                                                   115
     39.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shimane                                       115
     39.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shimane                                       116
     39.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shimane                                116
40      SHIZUOKA                                                                  117
     40.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shizuoka                                      117
     40.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shizuoka                                      118
     40.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shizuoka                               119
41      TOCHIGI                                                                   120
     41.1  Latent Demand by Year - Tochigi                                        120
     41.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Tochigi                                        121
     41.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tochigi                                 122
42      TOKUSHIMA                                           
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for medium-size disposable diapers across the prefectures and cities of Japan. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,000 cities in Japan. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s prefecture and of Japan is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each prefecture and city, latent demand estimates are created for medium-size disposable diapers. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in Japan). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for medium-size disposable diapers in Japan. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of Japan. For each prefecture, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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