The 2011-2016 Outlook for Interactive Whiteboards in Japan

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					      The 2011-2016 Outlook for Interactive
             Whiteboards in Japan

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                                ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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                                         About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across prefectures. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and
future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                    ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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    Contents                                                                                         v

Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                            10
     1.1      Overview                                                                          10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                             10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 13
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                14
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       14
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            14
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     16
     2.1   The Latent Demand in Japan                                                           16
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted by Rank                                                        18
3       AICHI                                                                                   21
     3.1    Latent Demand by Year - Aichi                                                       21
     3.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Aichi                                                       22
     3.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aichi                                                23
4       AKITA                                                                                   24
     4.1    Latent Demand by Year - Akita                                                       24
     4.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Akita                                                       25
     4.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Akita                                                25
5       AOMORI                                                                                  26
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Aomori                                                       26
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Aomori                                                       27
     5.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aomori                                                27
6       CHIBA                                                                                   28
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Chiba                                                       28
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Chiba                                                       29
     6.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chiba                                                30
7       EHIME                                                                                   31
     7.1    Latent Demand by Year - Ehime                                                       31
     7.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Ehime                                                       32
     7.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ehime                                                32
8       FUKUI                                                                                   33
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukui                                                        33
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukui                                                        34
     8.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukui                                                 34
9       FUKUOKA                                                                                 35
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukuoka                                                      35
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukuoka                                                      36
     9.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukuoka                                               36
10      FUKUSHIMA                                                                               37
     10.1  Latent Demand by Year - Fukushima                                                    37
     10.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukushima                                                    38
     10.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukushima                                             38                                            ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                                vi

11      GIFU                                                                        39
     11.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gifu                                            39
     11.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gifu                                            40
     11.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gifu                                     40
12      GUMMA                                                                       41
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Gumma                                            41
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Gumma                                            42
     12.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gumma                                     42
13      HIROSHIMA                                                                   43
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Hiroshima                                       43
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Hiroshima                                       44
     13.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hiroshima                                44
14      HOKKAIDO                                                                    45
     14.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hokkaido                                         45
     14.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hokkaido                                         46
     14.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hokkaido                                  46
15      HYOGO                                                                       47
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hyogo                                            47
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hyogo                                            48
     15.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hyogo                                     48
16      IBARAKI                                                                     49
     16.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ibaraki                                         49
     16.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ibaraki                                         50
     16.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ibaraki                                  50
17      ISHIKAWA                                                                    51
     17.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ishikawa                                        51
     17.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ishikawa                                        52
     17.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ishikawa                                 52
18      IWATE                                                                       53
     18.1  Latent Demand by Year - Iwate                                            53
     18.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Iwate                                            54
     18.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Iwate                                     54
19      KAGAWA                                                                      55
     19.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagawa                                           55
     19.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagawa                                           56
     19.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagawa                                    56
20      KAGOSHIMA                                                                   57
     20.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagoshima                                        57
     20.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagoshima                                        58
     20.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagoshima                                 58
21      KANAGAWA                                                                    59
     21.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kanagawa                                         59
     21.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kanagawa                                         60
     21.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kanagawa                                  60
22      KOCHI                                                                       62
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kochi                                            62
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kochi                                            63                                ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                               vii

     22.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kochi                                  63
23      KUMAMOTO                                                                   64
     23.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kumamoto                                        64
     23.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kumamoto                                        65
     23.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kumamoto                                 65
24      KYOTO                                                                      66
     24.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kyoto                                           66
     24.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kyoto                                           67
     24.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kyoto                                    67
25      MIE                                                                        68
     25.1   Latent Demand by Year - Mie                                            68
     25.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Mie                                            69
     25.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Mie                                     69
26      MIYAGI                                                                     70
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyagi                                         70
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyagi                                         71
     26.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyagi                                  71
27      MIYAZAKI                                                                   72
     27.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyazaki                                       72
     27.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyazaki                                       73
     27.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyazaki                                73
28      NAGANO                                                                     74
     28.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagano                                          74
     28.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagano                                          75
     28.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagano                                   75
29      NAGASAKI                                                                   76
     29.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagasaki                                        76
     29.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagasaki                                        77
     29.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagasaki                                 77
30      NARA                                                                       78
     30.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nara                                            78
     30.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nara                                            79
     30.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nara                                     79
31      NIIGATA                                                                    80
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Niigata                                        80
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Niigata                                        81
     31.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Niigata                                 81
32      OITA                                                                       82
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Oita                                           82
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Oita                                           83
     32.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Oita                                    83
33      OKAYAMA                                                                    84
     33.1  Latent Demand by Year - Okayama                                         84
     33.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Okayama                                         85
     33.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okayama                                  85
34      OKINAWA                                                                    86
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Okinawa                                 
Description: This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for interactive whiteboards across the prefectures and cities of Japan. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,000 cities in Japan. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s prefecture and of Japan is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each prefecture and city, latent demand estimates are created for interactive whiteboards. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in Japan). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for interactive whiteboards in Japan. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of Japan. For each prefecture, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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