The 2011-2016 Outlook for Household Liquid Toilet Soaps Excluding Medicated Soaps in Japan by ICONGroup


This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for household liquid toilet soaps excluding medicated soaps across the prefectures and cities of Japan. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,000 cities in Japan. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s prefecture and of Japan is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each prefecture and city, latent demand estimates are created for household liquid toilet soaps excluding medicated soaps. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in Japan). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for household liquid toilet soaps excluding medicated soaps in Japan. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of Japan. For each prefecture, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

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									   The 2011-2016 Outlook for Household
  Liquid Toilet Soaps Excluding Medicated
               Soaps in Japan

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                                ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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                                         About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across prefectures. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and
future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                    ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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    Contents                                                                                         v

Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                            10
     1.1      Overview                                                                          10
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                             10
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   11
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 13
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                14
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       14
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            14
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     16
     2.1   The Latent Demand in Japan                                                           16
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted by Rank                                                        18
3       AICHI                                                                                   21
     3.1    Latent Demand by Year - Aichi                                                       21
     3.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Aichi                                                       22
     3.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aichi                                                24
4       AKITA                                                                                   26
     4.1    Latent Demand by Year - Akita                                                       26
     4.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Akita                                                       27
     4.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Akita                                                28
5       AOMORI                                                                                  29
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Aomori                                                       29
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Aomori                                                       30
     5.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aomori                                                31
6       CHIBA                                                                                   32
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Chiba                                                       32
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Chiba                                                       33
     6.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chiba                                                34
7       EHIME                                                                                   36
     7.1    Latent Demand by Year - Ehime                                                       36
     7.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Ehime                                                       37
     7.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ehime                                                38
8       FUKUI                                                                                   39
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukui                                                        39
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukui                                                        40
     8.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukui                                                 41
9       FUKUOKA                                                                                 42
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Fukuoka                                                      42
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukuoka                                                      43
     9.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukuoka                                               44
10      FUKUSHIMA                                                                               46
     10.1  Latent Demand by Year - Fukushima                                                    46
     10.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukushima                                                    47
     10.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukushima                                             48                                            ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                                vi

11      GIFU                                                                        49
     11.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gifu                                            49
     11.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gifu                                            50
     11.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gifu                                     51
12      GUMMA                                                                       52
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Gumma                                            52
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Gumma                                            53
     12.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gumma                                     53
13      HIROSHIMA                                                                   55
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Hiroshima                                       55
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Hiroshima                                       56
     13.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hiroshima                                57
14      HOKKAIDO                                                                    58
     14.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hokkaido                                         58
     14.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hokkaido                                         59
     14.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hokkaido                                  60
15      HYOGO                                                                       62
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hyogo                                            62
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hyogo                                            63
     15.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hyogo                                     64
16      IBARAKI                                                                     66
     16.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ibaraki                                         66
     16.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ibaraki                                         67
     16.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ibaraki                                  68
17      ISHIKAWA                                                                    70
     17.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ishikawa                                        70
     17.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ishikawa                                        71
     17.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ishikawa                                 72
18      IWATE                                                                       73
     18.1  Latent Demand by Year - Iwate                                            73
     18.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Iwate                                            74
     18.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Iwate                                     75
19      KAGAWA                                                                      76
     19.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagawa                                           76
     19.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagawa                                           77
     19.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagawa                                    78
20      KAGOSHIMA                                                                   79
     20.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kagoshima                                        79
     20.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagoshima                                        80
     20.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagoshima                                 81
21      KANAGAWA                                                                    82
     21.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kanagawa                                         82
     21.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kanagawa                                         83
     21.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kanagawa                                  84
22      KOCHI                                                                       85
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kochi                                            85
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kochi                                            86                                ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                               vii

     22.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kochi                                  86
23      KUMAMOTO                                                                   87
     23.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kumamoto                                        87
     23.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kumamoto                                        88
     23.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kumamoto                                 88
24      KYOTO                                                                      90
     24.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kyoto                                           90
     24.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kyoto                                           91
     24.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kyoto                                    92
25      MIE                                                                        93
     25.1   Latent Demand by Year - Mie                                            93
     25.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Mie                                            94
     25.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Mie                                     94
26      MIYAGI                                                                     96
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyagi                                         96
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyagi                                         97
     26.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyagi                                  97
27      MIYAZAKI                                                                   99
     27.1   Latent Demand by Year - Miyazaki                                       99
     27.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyazaki                                      100
     27.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyazaki                               101
28      NAGANO                                                                    102
     28.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagano                                         102
     28.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagano                                         103
     28.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagano                                  104
29      NAGASAKI                                                                  105
     29.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagasaki                                       105
     29.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagasaki                                       106
     29.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagasaki                                107
30      NARA                                                                      108
     30.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nara                                           108
     30.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nara                                           109
     30.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nara                                    110
31      NIIGATA                                                                   111
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Niigata                                       111
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Niigata                                       112
     31.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Niigata                                113
32      OITA                                                                      114
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Oita                                          114
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Oita                                          115
     32.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Oita                                   115
33      OKAYAMA                                                                   116
     33.1  Latent Demand by Year - Okayama                                        116
     33.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Okayama                                        117
     33.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okayama                                 118
34      OKINAWA                                                                   119
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Okinaw
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