This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for greeting cards across the prefectures and cities of Japan. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,000 cities in Japan. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s prefecture and of Japan is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each prefecture and city, latent demand estimates are created for greeting cards. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in Japan). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for greeting cards in Japan. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of Japan. For each prefecture, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
The 2011-2016 Outlook for Greeting Cards in Japan by Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052869-8G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyright laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees or the author of this report can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across prefectures. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About ICON Group International, Inc. ICON Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs. U.S.-owned and operated, ICON Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 190 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum wages, child labor, unionization, and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. 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The studies are continually updated to insure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, contacts, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. ICON Group Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 1-858-635-9414 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org www.icongrouponline.com www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 10 1.1 Overview 10 1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 10 1.3 The Methodology 11 1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 12 1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 13 1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 13 1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 14 1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 14 1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 14 2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 16 2.1 The Latent Demand in Japan 16 2.2 Top 100 Cities Sorted by Rank 18 3 AICHI 21 3.1 Latent Demand by Year - Aichi 21 3.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Aichi 22 3.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aichi 23 4 AKITA 25 4.1 Latent Demand by Year - Akita 25 4.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Akita 26 4.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Akita 26 5 AOMORI 27 5.1 Latent Demand by Year - Aomori 27 5.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Aomori 28 5.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aomori 28 6 CHIBA 29 6.1 Latent Demand by Year - Chiba 29 6.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Chiba 30 6.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chiba 31 7 EHIME 32 7.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ehime 32 7.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ehime 33 7.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ehime 33 8 FUKUI 34 8.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fukui 34 8.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukui 35 8.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukui 35 9 FUKUOKA 36 9.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fukuoka 36 9.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukuoka 37 9.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukuoka 38 10 FUKUSHIMA 39 10.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fukushima 39 10.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukushima 40 10.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukushima 40 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 11 GIFU 41 11.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gifu 41 11.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gifu 42 11.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gifu 43 12 GUMMA 44 12.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gumma 44 12.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gumma 45 12.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gumma 45 13 HIROSHIMA 47 13.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hiroshima 47 13.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hiroshima 48 13.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hiroshima 48 14 HOKKAIDO 50 14.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hokkaido 50 14.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hokkaido 51 14.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hokkaido 52 15 HYOGO 53 15.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hyogo 53 15.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hyogo 54 15.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hyogo 55 16 IBARAKI 56 16.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ibaraki 56 16.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ibaraki 57 16.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ibaraki 58 17 ISHIKAWA 59 17.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ishikawa 59 17.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ishikawa 60 17.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ishikawa 60 18 IWATE 61 18.1 Latent Demand by Year - Iwate 61 18.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Iwate 62 18.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Iwate 62 19 KAGAWA 64 19.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kagawa 64 19.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagawa 65 19.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagawa 65 20 KAGOSHIMA 66 20.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kagoshima 66 20.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagoshima 67 20.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagoshima 67 21 KANAGAWA 69 21.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kanagawa 69 21.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kanagawa 70 21.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kanagawa 71 22 KOCHI 72 22.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kochi 72 22.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kochi 73 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 22.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kochi 73 23 KUMAMOTO 74 23.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kumamoto 74 23.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kumamoto 75 23.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kumamoto 75 24 KYOTO 77 24.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kyoto 77 24.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kyoto 78 24.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kyoto 78 25 MIE 79 25.1 Latent Demand by Year - Mie 79 25.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Mie 80 25.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Mie 80 26 MIYAGI 82 26.1 Latent Demand by Year - Miyagi 82 26.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyagi 83 26.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyagi 83 27 MIYAZAKI 85 27.1 Latent Demand by Year - Miyazaki 85 27.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyazaki 86 27.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyazaki 86 28 NAGANO 87 28.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nagano 87 28.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagano 88 28.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagano 88 29 NAGASAKI 90 29.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nagasaki 90 29.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagasaki 91 29.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagasaki 91 30 NARA 92 30.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nara 92 30.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nara 93 30.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nara 93 31 NIIGATA 95 31.1 Latent Demand by Year - Niigata 95 31.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Niigata 96 31.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Niigata 96 32 OITA 98 32.1 Latent Demand by Year - Oita 98 32.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Oita 99 32.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Oita 99 33 OKAYAMA 100 33.1 Latent Demand by Year - Okayama 100 33.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Okayama 101 33.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okayama 101 34 OKINAWA 102 34.1 Latent Demand by Year - Okinawa 102 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 34.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Okinawa 103 34.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okinawa 103 35 OSAKA 104 35.1 Latent Demand by Year - Osaka 104 35.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Osaka 105 35.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Osaka 106 36 SAGA 107 36.1 Latent Demand by Year - Saga 107 36.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Saga 108 36.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saga 108 37 SAITAMA 109 37.1 Latent Demand by Year - Saitama 109 37.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Saitama 110 37.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saitama 111 38 SHIGA 113 38.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shiga 113 38.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shiga 114 38.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shiga 114 39 SHIMANE 115 39.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shimane 115 39.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shimane 116 39.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shimane 116 40 SHIZUOKA 117 40.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shizuoka 117 40.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shizuoka 118 40.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shizuoka 119 41 TOCHIGI 120 41.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tochigi 120 41.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Tochigi 121 41.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tochigi 122 42 TOKUSHIMA 123 42.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tokushima 12
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