The 2011-2016 Outlook for Baby Wipes
Refills in Japan
by
Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.
About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across prefectures. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and
future levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Contents v
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 10
1.1 Overview 10
1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 10
1.3 The Methodology 11
1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 12
1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 13
1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 13
1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 14
1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 14
1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 14
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 16
2.1 The Latent Demand in Japan 16
2.2 Top 100 Cities Sorted by Rank 18
3 AICHI 21
3.1 Latent Demand by Year - Aichi 21
3.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Aichi 22
3.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aichi 23
4 AKITA 25
4.1 Latent Demand by Year - Akita 25
4.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Akita 26
4.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Akita 26
5 AOMORI 27
5.1 Latent Demand by Year - Aomori 27
5.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Aomori 28
5.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Aomori 28
6 CHIBA 29
6.1 Latent Demand by Year - Chiba 29
6.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Chiba 30
6.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chiba 31
7 EHIME 32
7.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ehime 32
7.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ehime 33
7.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ehime 33
8 FUKUI 34
8.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fukui 34
8.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukui 35
8.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukui 35
9 FUKUOKA 36
9.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fukuoka 36
9.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukuoka 37
9.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukuoka 38
10 FUKUSHIMA 39
10.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fukushima 39
10.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fukushima 40
10.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fukushima 40
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11 GIFU 41
11.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gifu 41
11.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gifu 42
11.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gifu 43
12 GUMMA 44
12.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gumma 44
12.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gumma 45
12.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gumma 45
13 HIROSHIMA 47
13.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hiroshima 47
13.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hiroshima 48
13.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hiroshima 48
14 HOKKAIDO 50
14.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hokkaido 50
14.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hokkaido 51
14.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hokkaido 52
15 HYOGO 53
15.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hyogo 53
15.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hyogo 54
15.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hyogo 55
16 IBARAKI 56
16.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ibaraki 56
16.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ibaraki 57
16.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ibaraki 58
17 ISHIKAWA 59
17.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ishikawa 59
17.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ishikawa 60
17.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ishikawa 60
18 IWATE 61
18.1 Latent Demand by Year - Iwate 61
18.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Iwate 62
18.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Iwate 62
19 KAGAWA 64
19.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kagawa 64
19.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagawa 65
19.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagawa 65
20 KAGOSHIMA 66
20.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kagoshima 66
20.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kagoshima 67
20.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kagoshima 67
21 KANAGAWA 69
21.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kanagawa 69
21.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kanagawa 70
21.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kanagawa 71
22 KOCHI 72
22.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kochi 72
22.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kochi 73
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22.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kochi 73
23 KUMAMOTO 74
23.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kumamoto 74
23.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kumamoto 75
23.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kumamoto 75
24 KYOTO 77
24.1 Latent Demand by Year - Kyoto 77
24.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Kyoto 78
24.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Kyoto 78
25 MIE 79
25.1 Latent Demand by Year - Mie 79
25.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Mie 80
25.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Mie 80
26 MIYAGI 82
26.1 Latent Demand by Year - Miyagi 82
26.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyagi 83
26.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyagi 83
27 MIYAZAKI 85
27.1 Latent Demand by Year - Miyazaki 85
27.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Miyazaki 86
27.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Miyazaki 86
28 NAGANO 87
28.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nagano 87
28.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagano 88
28.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagano 88
29 NAGASAKI 90
29.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nagasaki 90
29.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagasaki 91
29.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nagasaki 91
30 NARA 92
30.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nara 92
30.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nara 93
30.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nara 93
31 NIIGATA 95
31.1 Latent Demand by Year - Niigata 95
31.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Niigata 96
31.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Niigata 96
32 OITA 98
32.1 Latent Demand by Year - Oita 98
32.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Oita 99
32.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Oita 99
33 OKAYAMA 100
33.1 Latent Demand by Year - Okayama 100
33.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Okayama 101
33.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okayama 101
34 OKINAWA 102
34.1 Latent Demand by Year - Okinawa 102
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34.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Okinawa 103
34.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Okinawa 103
35 OSAKA 104
35.1 Latent Demand by Year - Osaka 104
35.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Osaka 105
35.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Osaka 106
36 SAGA 107
36.1 Latent Demand by Year - Saga 107
36.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Saga 108
36.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saga 108
37 SAITAMA 109
37.1 Latent Demand by Year - Saitama 109
37.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Saitama 110
37.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Saitama 111
38 SHIGA 113
38.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shiga 113
38.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shiga 114
38.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shiga 114
39 SHIMANE 115
39.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shimane 115
39.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shimane 116
39.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shimane 116
40 SHIZUOKA 117
40.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shizuoka 117
40.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shizuoka 118
40.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shizuoka 119
41 TOCHIGI 120
41.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tochigi 120
41.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Tochigi 121
41.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tochigi 122
42 TOKUSHIMA 123
42.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tokushima