The 2011-2016 Outlook for Household Ammonia in India

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					      The 2011-2016 Outlook for Household
               Ammonia in India

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                                ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across states or union territories. Reported figures should be seen as
estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                   ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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    Contents                                                                                         v

Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                             9
     1.1      Overview                                                                           9
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                              9
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   10
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  11
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 12
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               12
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                12
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       13
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            13
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     15
     2.1   The Latent Demand in India                                                           15
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted By Rank                                                        16
     2.3   Latent Demand by Year in India                                                       19
3       ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS                                                               20
     3.1   Latent Demand by Year - Andaman & Nicobar Islands                                    20
     3.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Andaman & Nicobar Islands                                    21
     3.3   Cities Sorted By District - Andaman & Nicobar Islands                                21
4       ANDHRA PRADESH                                                                          22
     4.1   Latent Demand by Year - Andhra Pradesh                                               22
     4.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Andhra Pradesh                                               23
     4.3   Cities Sorted By District - Andhra Pradesh                                           24
5       ARUNACHAL PRADESH                                                                       26
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Arunachal Pradesh                                            26
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Arunachal Pradesh                                            27
     5.3   Cities Sorted By District - Arunachal Pradesh                                        27
6       ASSAM                                                                                   28
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Assam                                                       28
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Assam                                                       29
     6.3    Cities Sorted By District - Assam                                                   29
7       BIHAR                                                                                   30
     7.1    Latent Demand by Year - Bihar                                                       30
     7.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Bihar                                                       31
     7.3    Cities Sorted By District - Bihar                                                   31
8       CHANDIGARH                                                                              32
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Chandigarh                                                   32
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Chandigarh                                                   33
     8.3   Cities Sorted By District - Chandigarh                                               33
9       CHHATTISGARH                                                                            34
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Chhattisgarh                                                 34
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Chhattisgarh                                                 35
     9.3   Cities Sorted By District - Chhattisgarh                                             35
10      DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI                                                                    36
     10.1  Latent Demand by Year - Dadra & Nagar Haveli                                         36
     10.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Dadra & Nagar Haveli                                         37
     10.3  Cities Sorted By District - Dadra & Nagar Haveli                                     37                                            ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                                   vi

11      DAMAN & DIU                                                                    38
     11.1  Latent Demand by Year - Daman & Diu                                         38
     11.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Daman & Diu                                         39
     11.3  Cities Sorted By District - Daman & Diu                                     39
12      DELHI                                                                          40
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Delhi                                               40
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Delhi                                               41
     12.3  Cities Sorted By District - Delhi                                           41
13      GOA                                                                            42
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Goa                                                42
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Goa                                                43
     13.3   Cities Sorted By District - Goa                                            43
14      GUJARAT                                                                        44
     14.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gujarat                                            44
     14.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gujarat                                            45
     14.3   Cities Sorted By District - Gujarat                                        46
15      HARYANA                                                                        47
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Haryana                                             47
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Haryana                                             48
     15.3  Cities Sorted By District - Haryana                                         49
16      HIMACHAL PRADESH                                                               50
     16.1  Latent Demand by Year - Himachal Pradesh                                    50
     16.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Himachal Pradesh                                    51
     16.3  Cities Sorted By District - Himachal Pradesh                                51
17      JAMMU & KASHMIR                                                                52
     17.1  Latent Demand by Year - Jammu & Kashmir                                     52
     17.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Jammu & Kashmir                                     53
     17.3  Cities Sorted By District - Jammu & Kashmir                                 53
18      JHARKHAND                                                                      54
     18.1   Latent Demand by Year - Jharkhand                                          54
     18.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Jharkhand                                          55
     18.3   Cities Sorted By District - Jharkhand                                      55
19      KARNATAKA                                                                      56
     19.1  Latent Demand by Year - Karnataka                                           56
     19.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Karnataka                                           57
     19.3  Cities Sorted By District - Karnataka                                       58
20      KERALA                                                                         59
     20.1  Latent Demand by Year - Kerala                                              59
     20.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Kerala                                              60
     20.3  Cities Sorted By District - Kerala                                          60
21      LAKSHADWEEP                                                                    62
     21.1  Latent Demand by Year - Lakshadweep                                         62
     21.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Lakshadweep                                         63
     21.3  Cities Sorted By District - Lakshadweep                                     63
22      MADHYA PRADESH                                                                 64
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Madhya Pradesh                                      64
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Madhya Pradesh                                      65                                   ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                                   vii

     22.3    Cities Sorted By District - Madhya Pradesh                                66
23      MAHARASHTRA                                                                    67
     23.1  Latent Demand by Year - Maharashtra                                         67
     23.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Maharashtra                                         68
     23.3  Cities Sorted By District - Maharashtra                                     69
24      MANIPUR                                                                        71
     24.1  Latent Demand by Year - Manipur                                             71
     24.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Manipur                                             72
     24.3  Cities Sorted By District - Manipur                                         72
25      MEGHALAYA                                                                      73
     25.1  Latent Demand by Year - Meghalaya                                           73
     25.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Meghalaya                                           74
     25.3  Cities Sorted By District - Meghalaya                                       74
26      MIZORAM                                                                        75
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Mizoram                                            75
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Mizoram                                            76
     26.3   Cities Sorted By District - Mizoram                                        76
27      NAGALAND                                                                       77
     27.1  Latent Demand by Year - Nagaland                                            77
     27.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Nagaland                                            78
     27.3  Cities Sorted By District - Nagaland                                        78
28      ORISSA                                                                         79
     28.1   Latent Demand by Year - Orissa                                             79
     28.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Orissa                                             80
     28.3   Cities Sorted By District - Orissa                                         80
29      PONDICHERRY                                                                    82
     29.1  Latent Demand by Year - Pondicherry                                         82
     29.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Pondicherry                                         83
     29.3  Cities Sorted By District - Pondicherry                                     83
30      PUNJAB                                                                         84
     30.1   Latent Demand by Year - Punjab                                             84
     30.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Punjab                                             85
     30.3   Cities Sorted By District - Punjab                                         85
31      RAJASTHAN                                                                      87
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Rajasthan                                          87
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Rajasthan                                          88
     31.3   Cities Sorted By District - Rajasthan                                      89
32      SIKKIM                                                                         90
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Sikkim                                             90
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Sikkim                                             91
     32.3   Cities Sorted By District - Sikkim                                         91
33      TAMIL NADU                                                                     92
     33.1  Latent Demand by Year - Tamil Nadu                                          92
     33.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Tamil Nadu                                          93
     33.3  Cities Sorted By District - Tamil Nadu                                      94
34      TRIPURA                                                                        95
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Tripura                                            95                                   ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
 Contents                                                                                   viii

     34.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Tripura                     
Description: This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for household ammonia across the states, union territories and cities of India. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across over 600 cities in India. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s state or union territory and of India as a whole is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each state or union territory and city, latent demand estimates are created for household ammonia. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in India). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for household ammonia in India. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of India. For each state or union territory, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
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