LEADERSHIP DIXIE GROWTH & INFRASTRUCTURE Challenge Day Thursday, November 18, 2010 Presented by Vardell H CURTIS, RCE Chief Executive Officer Washington County Board of REALTORS® VALUE in HOMEOWNERSHIP It was only earlier this decade that so many buyers jumped on the investment bandwagon. They bought and sold within incredibly short time frames, and walked away with profits. But as the BOOM busted, many sellers found they had bought at the top of the market and as prices corrected, they lost more than just dollars. Foreclosure rates skyrocketed. Historically, however, homeownership is a long term investment, and one that brings many rewards. REALTY TIMES – November 2010 UTAH FORECLOSURE RATE Utah is No. 33 in the nation in terms of states with the highest numbers of foreclosures and delinquencies, according to a new report from LPS Applied Analytics. The total percentage of non-current loans in Utah was 10 percent in July, compared to a rate of about 13 percent nationally. Over the past six months, Utah foreclosures and delinquencies have declined 9.4 percent Utah REALTOR Magazine – Third Quarter UTAH FORECLOSURES One out of five Utah homeowners with a mortgage was in a “negative equity” situation in the second quarter. In Utah, 20 percent of people with a mortgage owed more on their homes than they were worth, and more than 6 percent were getting closer to being “underwater.” Compared to other states, the percentage is relatively mild. In Nevada, 68 percent of mortgaged properties were in a negative- equity situation, followed by Arizona (50 percent), Florida (46 percent), Michigan (38 percent), and California (33 percent) Utah REALTOR Magazine – Third Quarter NOD’s HISTORICALLY NOTICES OF DEFAULT NOD’s & TRUSTEES DEEDS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Prior to the recent mid-term elections consumers expressed their troubling unhappiness about their situations. The index measuring confidence about consumers’ present situation, which is based primarily on questions related to the economy, job and personal finances, was 23.9 in October. That is much lower than the neutral 100 mark and essentially at near historic lows – even matching the levels at the depths of the recession in the early 1980s and early 1990s. Real Estate Insights – November 2010 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE After an election there is generally some boost to consumer confidence. The boost comes from a simple tautology: the majority of people (at least the majority of those who voted) got what they wanted, i.e., the candidates who received the most votes won. Let’s not underestimate the potential for improvement in consumer confidence and the consequent impact on the housing market. People in general believe in a better future for themselves and their children – even though they did not express that view prior to the election. Real Estate Insights – November 2010 ROAD TO RECOVERY The road to recovery will not be a straight upward path. We’ve seen evidence of that already. This type of trend – two steps forward and one step back – is likely to occur in the coming year as well. The underlying fundamentals of rising demand are present in the forms of compelling affordability conditions and from job creation. But while investors appear eager to “get in” as well, they are being hampered by very tight mortgage availability for non-owner occupancy loans. In addition, the hiccups to recovery will also arise from a flow of foreclosed/REO properties reaching the market. Real Estate Insights – November 2010 HOMES ARE STILL SELLING! People are still buying homes. And surveys have found there are particular reasons behind these purchases. These include the desire to own a home, the desire for a larger home, a change in a family situation and taking advantage of the home buyer tax credit, a job-related move, and then the current supply of affordable homes. Realty Times – November 2010 INVENTORY GRAPH INVENTORY CHART DOM & UNIT VOLUME DOM & UNIT VOLUME DOM & SOLD PRICE DOM & SOLD PRICE VOLUME & PRICE GRAPH VOLUME & PRICE CHART SEPTEMBER COMPARISONS COST OF LIVING AFFORDABILITY Affordability is a combination of home price, interest rate, and down payment. And with rates at historic lows, homebuyers have the opportunity to get more for their money … but if rates go up even a little bit they could miss out. Here’s a simple formula that drives that point home. In simple terms, every 1 percent increase in home loan rates decreases the buying power by 10% in home price. This means if you qualify for a home priced at $200,000 today and home loan rates increase 1 percent, the amount you could qualify for would be reduced to approximately $180,000 to maintain the same payment. INTEREST RATES HOUSING RECOVERY Although the recent trend of rising long-term borrowing rates may mean higher mortgages for consumers in the coming months, the greater obstacles to housing market recovery are job creation and availability of credit. Modest changes in mortgage rates are less important to a housing market recovery than the number of people who are able to obtain mortgages. National Association of REALTORS – November 2010 STATE BUILDING PERMITS STATE PERMIT VALUES BUILDING PERMITS by COUNTY UTAH BUILDING PERMITS BUILDING PERMITS PERMIT VALUES VALUE in HOMEOWNERSHIP Even with several years of price declines, the typical seller who purchased a home eight years ago experienced a median equity gain of $33,000, a 24 percent increase, while sellers who were in their homes 11 to 15 years saw a median gain of 40 percent. So, once again buying for the long-term is steering its way back into value. REALTY TIMES – NOVEMBER 2010 UTAH MARKET REBOUNDING SLOWLY While some sectors of Utah’s economy are slowly heading toward the rebound track, real estate is still not there yet. And some local analysts predict it may be a while before it finally finds its way back onto the road to stability. The commercial real estate market may not even begin to recover until late next year. On the residential side, declining home values have pushed housing prices back to much more affordable levels. The lower end of the market (under $300,000) is recovering. The middle part of the market is “a little bumpy” with the higher end “going to remain a mess for some time to come.” Deseret News WHERE TO RETIRE In it’s November/December 2010 issue, concluding their yearlong series called “Ready for the Rebound,” WHERE TO RETIRE Magazine spotlights destinations that are great for retirees and of unusually good buys in housing. St.George is featured as one of eight prime desert locales providing significant savings on active, outdoor-oriented retirement lifestyle.