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UkrAgroConsult Analytical Center: an optimistic forecast for the Black Sea grain crop
By UkrAgroConsult Dated: Jun 03, 2009
UkrAgroConsult Analytical Center notes that just a slight decrease, if any, will be registered in the Black Sea grain output in season 2009/10. Winter crops are sown on areas close to last year’s extent and a good harvest is expected. Spring crops UkrAgroConsult Analytical Center notes that just a slight decrease, if any, will be registered in the Black Sea grain output in season 2009/10. Winter crops are sown on areas close to last year’s extent and a good harvest is expected. Spring crops may slightly shrink. Barley areas will expand in Ukraine, Romania and decrease in Russia. Most likely, costs for fertilizers and other inputs will be cut. As a result, yields will not be so high. Winter crop observations give ground to expect a good crop. Of course, weather may make its adjustments as ever. Grain stocks are all-time high in the Black Sea countries that complicates the new crop’s placement. The new crop grain arrival will probably contribute to lower prices that may stimulate exports. The rich crop harvested in 2008, competitive prices and available strong demand resulted in an all-time high grain export from the Black Sea region: it almost doubled against the past season (+ nearly 20 MMT). Export shipments still remain high at the latter half of the season, when they normally decrease. Wheat accounts for the bulk of grain exports (about 80%). Traditionally, the main share of Black Sea exports fell to Ukraine. Exports from Russia and Bulgaria greatly increased, too. Having no access to ports, Kazakhstan significantly cut its exports and switched them to the neighboring countries. The country may revive its export shipments if demand for quality wheat is present. The Black Sea region’s share reached almost half of the global barley export. It substantially expanded: from 23 to 49% (the total volume is 19.5 MMT). The barley export increased more than 3 times in season 08/09. Ukraine is still the greatest exporter. According to estimates of UkrAgroConsult, it will export over 6 MMT of barley. Besides, barley exports were increased by Russia and Bulgaria and decreased by Kazakhstan. A small share is accounted for by the Black Sea region in the global export of corn. However, it considerably expanded in the current season of 2008/09: from 2 to 8% (78.8 MMT in the world). The largest Black Sea exporter of corn is Ukraine. Russia also substantially increased its corn export. This is the first season when Russia shipped abroad a significant volume of corn: usually the country imported this commodity (mostly from the neighboring Ukraine). Romania and Bulgaria also greatly built up their corn exports.
UkrAgroConsult http://www.ukragroconsult.com/
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