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					                                                                           University of Aveiro




     Emissions and Air Quality Modelling

                         Department of Environment and Planning
                              University of Aveiro (Portugal)

                          Carlos Borrego and Ana Isabel Miranda


Final Meeting and Project Review                                  23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                    Emissions and Air Quality Modelling
                                                                 University of Aveiro




                    Air quality is an important issue in a
               sustainable urban transportation system.



     SUTRA addressed this question through a cascade of
        emissions and air quality models, which covers
      different scales, from the regional to the ”hotspot”.


Final Meeting and Project Review                        23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Emissions and Air Quality Modelling
                                                            University of Aveiro




                                   VISUM




               VADIS               TREM            OFIS
             Local scale                        Regional scale


                                   AirWare
                                   City level
Final Meeting and Project Review                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
               Transport Emission Model for Line Sources
               TREM
                                                                              University of Aveiro



                                   allows the estimation of road traffic emissions
                                      with high temporal and spatial resolution.



   Objectives within SUTRA project:


 1.         Quantification of road traffic emissions for the
            reference situation and the development scenarios;


             2. Development of a link to transportation model;
 3. Implementation of new vehicle technologies;
     4. Development of a friendly user interface.
Final Meeting and Project Review                                     23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Transport Emission Model
                                                                                   University of Aveiro



      Methodology

                                   E = e        a
         Emission factor                                        Transport activity
                                                 Link to transportation model
             Emission factors from                   - Cold start emission with high spatial
           MEET / COST methodology                          resolution

 • Different vehicle technologies                Link to GIS
 (engine capacity, vehicle mass, emission            - High spatial resolution
 reduction technology)                               - Spatial analysis of the emission data
 • Average speed approach
 • Future technologies                               Different aggregation levels for vehicle
 • Pollutants: CO, CO2,NOx, VOC, PM10, SO2                        classification
                                                          - Adapted to the data available


Final Meeting and Project Review                                         23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Transport Emission Model
                                                ArcView                             University of Aveiro

                                   Network geometry, road segment length


                                            Statistical data

                 Vehicle age, emission reduction technology, engine capacity,...


                                                 VISUM
                      Traffic volume                           Number of vehicles
                      Vehicle speed                            under cold engine;
                                                               Vehicle speed
                       hot emission
                                                TREM             cold emission


                        Total emission for each road segment
Final Meeting and Project Review                                           23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                                                  Transport Emission Model  Results
                                                                                                                                                                    University of Aveiro
                                                                                                                                            CO emissions from Road Transport
                                                  Gdansk CO emission                                                                   CO emission from road transport in
                                                                                                                               15000
                                                                                                                                        14026    Thessaloniki
                                250                                                                                            13500
                                                                                                                               12000
       emission rate (g.h -1)




                                200                                                                                            10500




                                                                                                               tons per year
                                                                                                                                                           8015
                                                                                                                                9000
                                150                                                                                             7500
                                                                                                                                6000
                                100                                                                                                               4144                         4626
                                                                                                                                4500

                                50                                                                                              3000
                                                                                                                                                                   1953
                                                                                                                                1500
                                 0                                                                                                0
                                      1   3   5   7   9   11   13   15   17   19   21   23                                             Baseline   CS1     CS2      CS3         CS4

                                                           hours

                                                                                                                                            Scenarios
                                      Air Pollution models



  Analysis of Spatial distribution
  (join with other GIS information)
                                                                                                                               Indicators

                                                                                                       Genoa indicators for CO2:
                                                                                             Total emission:            207 041 (t.year -1)
                                                                                             Emission per capita:          0.326 (t.year -1)
                                                                                             Emission per pass-km:         0.351
                                                                                             (kg.km -1.year-1)
                                                                                             Private transport over total:   96.3 %
Final Meeting and Project Review                                                                                                                  23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                  Transport Emission Model
                                                                                              University of Aveiro

   Uncertainties estimation for Lisbon City Case
                        total        vehicles                       vehicles
                       vehicle      by category       speed            by
                       number                                       classes          Data considered
       Series 1                                                     
       Series 2                                                     
       Series 3                                                     

                                               CV       15
                                             emission
                                            uncertainty
                                               (%)      10


         Results :                                      5


        Coefficient of Variation (%)                    0
                        s                                     CO    NOx VOC           CO2     PM
             CV =            100
                                               Series1        4.4   5.6        7.9     1.4    11.8
                       X                       Series2        3.3   3.1        4.5     0.6     8.9
                                               Series3        2.3   2.6        3.5     0.2     6.5

Final Meeting and Project Review                                                     23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                 Transport Emission Model interface
                                                                                                                University of Aveiro




  1. TREM Interface available for download in SUTRA Webpage
        (restricted access to city partners)

  2. TREM interface on-line:
        www.dao.ua.pt/gemac



                                        This software is developed at the Department of Environment and Planning –
                                        University of Aveiro – Portugal

                                        www.dao.ua.pt/gemac




Final Meeting and Project Review                                                           23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                VADIS Local Scale Model
                                                                            University of Aveiro



      VADIS
                  allows the calculation of urban street canyon air pollution due
      Model       to road traffic emissions and the estimation of local hot-spots.

  Objectives within SUTRA project:


 1.
              Adaptation of street canyon model to calculate urban
              air pollution due to traffic road emissions and to
              estimate local hot-spot values;

  2.              Validation of VADIS results with air quality data for all
                  city cases;

3. access to model input operations;
   Development of an interface for a friendly user



    4. partners using the VADIS interface.
           Simulation of development scenarios by the city

Final Meeting and Project Review                                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Local Scale Model
                                                                            University of Aveiro



   General description
                Local dispersion model;
                Calculation of concentration fields of air pollutants in
                specific areas of a city.


  Field of application:
              Flow and dispersion near obstacles under variable
              wind conditions


                            Set-up by 2 independent modules:
                                   VADIS_V and VADIS_D

Final Meeting and Project Review                                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Local Scale Model
                                                                            University of Aveiro

    Wind data
                                                Dispersion data
     wind field domain
                                                 dispersion field domain
     wind field grid resolution
                                                 dispersion field grid resolution
     wind velocity and direction
                                                 obstacles and sources
     vertical rotation axis between            coordinates in the domain
    dispersion and wind field grids

                     Boundary Layer Module (VADIS_V)

   TREM                            3-D velocity wind field
   Emission data
 (source emission rate)
                                    Lagrangean module (VADIS_D)

Final Meeting and Project Review                                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                                   3-D concentration field
                Local Scale Model                                                                       evaluation
                                                                                                                                                  University of Aveiro

Comparison between CO concentrations measured by the air quality station located at
Prata Street and the concentrations calculated by VADIS and FLUENT models.
                                                    2500
Simulated period:
                       CO concentration (µg.m -3)




8/7/1997                                            2000

                                                    1500

                                                    1000

                                                     500

                                                       0
                                                           0   2    4       6      8      10     12      14     16      18       20    22     24        26
                                                                                                  Time (h)

                                                                   Concentrations measured by Prata Street air quality station

                                                                   Concentrations estimated by VADIS in a near point to the air quality station
                                                                   Concentrations estimated by FLUENT in a near point to the air quality station


Final Meeting and Project Review                                                                                                 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                          Local Scale Model                                                            evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                                    University of Aveiro


 Gdansk                                                                     Geneva
                                                                           600
 250

                                                                           550                                                                                                                         CO
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (µg.m-3)
                                                                 CO
                                                               [µg.m-3]
                                        Hallera street                     500

 200
                                                                                                                                                                                                          4500
                                                                           450
                                                                   24000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          4000
                                                                   22000   400
                                                                   20000                                                                                                                                  3500
 150                                                               18000   350
                                                                                                                                                                                                          3000
                                                                   16000                                                                                                  Bergues Str.
                                                                   14000
                                                                           300                                                                                                                            2500
                                                                   12000
                                                                   10000                                                                                                                                  2000
 100                                                                       250
                                                                   8000




                                                                                                             Moulins Str.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          1500
                                                                   6000




                                                                                                                                  Tour de-I'lle Str.
                                                                           200
                                                                   4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          1000
                                                                   2000
                                                                           150
  50                                                               1000                                                                                                                                   500
                                                                   500

             Simulation period:
                                                                           100                                                                                                                            200
                                                                   250
                                                                   100                                            Simulation period:
                                                                            50
           1/7/1999 11:00 – 12:00
   0
       0        50      100       150        200         250
                                                                             0
                                                                                                      13/1/2001 15:00 – 16:00
                                                                                 0   50   100   150    200                  250                        300   350    400    450   500     550   600
 Domain rotation angle: 0º                                                                                                                                    Domain rotation angle: 18º
 Wind direction: 113º                                                                                                                                         Wind direction: 72º
 Wind velocity: 1,3 m.s-1                                                                                                                                     Wind velocity: 4,9 m.s-1
                          Air Quality Station                                                   Air Quality Station
               (CO measured value: 11:00 - 12:00 - 474 µg.m-3)                       (CO measured value: 15:00 - 16:00 - 1450 µg.m-3)

Final Meeting and Project Review                                                                                                                                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                    Local Scale Model      interface
                                                          University of Aveiro




   1. VADIS Interface available for download in SUTRA Webpage
      (restricted access to city partners)


   2. VADIS interface on-line:
         www.dao.ua.pt/gemac




Final Meeting and Project Review                 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                AirWare City-level Model
                                                                       University of Aveiro


             Integrated model-based information and decision support
                system for air quality assessment and management.

  Objectives within SUTRA project:

 1.
            Development of a tool for comprehensive impact
            assessment urban transportation, that goes beyond the air
            quality aspects;


          2.
                    Adaptation of a rule-based expert system for screening
                    level environmental impact assessment to the project
                    requirements;
            Development of checklists and rule-sets consistent with the
  3.        indicators of sustainable urban transportation, sustainable
            urban development and economic assessment.
Final Meeting and Project Review                             23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                City-level Model
                                                                                 University of Aveiro


                                                 Gaussian short-term and long-term
 AirWare system                                 models (ISC3/AERMOD)
                                    using        3-D dynamic Eulerian model
City-level modeling
                                                (TIMES/URBAN) for conservative
of air quality                      air quality pollutants or first-order decay and
(SO2, NOx, TPS)                      models conversion (SO2=>SO4, NO=>NO2)
                                                 Dynamic (24 hours) photochemical box
                                                model (USEPA PBM)

                                     Geographical Data
                                     Population Data
                         Input       Emission Inventories
                      information
                                     Meteorological Data
                                     Air Quality Data
                                     Economic Data
Final Meeting and Project Review                                        23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                City-level Model
                                                    University of Aveiro


                 ISC application

               Gdansk
               SC 1 (young and virtuous)




Final Meeting and Project Review           23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                    City-level Model
                                                University of Aveiro


           ISC application
      Lisbon
      SC1 (young and virtuous)




Final Meeting and Project Review       23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                  OFIS Ozone Fine Structure model
                                                                                   University of Aveiro



                          allow authorities to assess urban air quality by means of a fast,
                          simple and still reliable model; refine a regional model simulation
                          by estimating the urban subgrid effect on pollution levels.




Objectives within SUTRA project:


 1.
           Adaptation of photochemical air quality model (OFIS) for
           the set of application cases;
            Development of interfaces between the regional

  2.
            photochemical air quality model and the traffic, emission
            and energy models, as well as the assessment methods.

Final Meeting and Project Review                                          23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                    Ozone Fine Structure model
                                                                    University of Aveiro



                                           Sample of horizontal grid layout
Main inputs:
 emissions: hourly non-urban, 1D multibox model
suburban and urban emissions rates


 meteorological data: daily average
wind speed and direction, temperature
and temperature lapse rate above the                                       urban
mixing layer
                                   Wind direction
                                                                suburban
 boundary conditions: daily average
regional background concentrations (NO,
NO2, O3 and other species)


Final Meeting and Project Review                           23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Ozone Fine Structure model
                                                            University of Aveiro

  Methodology applied              AOT60 and IND120 indicators
                                              AOT60 (ppb x hours)
                                              The accumulated
                                              exposure above the
                                              threshold concentration
                                              of 60 ppb (120 µg.m-3)
                                              calculated from the daily
                                              maximum 8-hour means.

                                              IND120 (number of
                                              days) Spatial graphs of
                                              days with 8 hour running
                                              average ozone
                                              concentration exceeding
                                              120 μg.m-3 values.



Final Meeting and Project Review                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
               Ozone Fine Structure model application
                                                                            University of Aveiro




  60
                                                  Area of application:
                                                  150x150km2 area surrounding Genoa
  40



                                                  125    Number of days with 8
  20
                                                        hour running average
                                                  105
                                                        ozone concentration
   0

                                                  85
                                                        exceeding 120 μg.m-3
                                                        (IND120)
 -20
                                                  65


 -40
                                                  45
                                                         Wind rose of prevailing
                                                        wind during the summer
 -60                                              25    semester of 1999.
                                                  5
        -60      -40   -20     0   20   40   60


              Spatial graph of exceedances
Final Meeting and Project Review                                   23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
              Ozone Fine Structure model application
                                                      University of Aveiro



Area of application:
Thessaloniki

       AOT60


      Reference
       scenario




Final Meeting and Project Review             23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
              Ozone Fine Structure model application
                                                      University of Aveiro




 Area of application:
  Thessaloniki

         AOT60

                SC3
                SC2
               SC1
                SC4
           Old and virtuous
                     vicious
          Young andvirtuous
         Young and vicious
            Old




Final Meeting and Project Review             23/24 June 2003 Gdansk
                Final Remarks                                                              University of Aveiro




        No single model can cover the entire set of impacts, so a
         few well selected and complementary ones were applied
                                   to derive different indicators.

    TREM
Pressure indicators:                  VADIS                 AirWare                     OFIS
                                   State indicators:      State indicators:      State indicators:
 Total passenger
transport emission CO2 in           Peak concentration    NO2 annual average  O3 annual average
a year (tons.yr-1)                 CO, NOx and PM10       concentration (µg.m-3) concentration (µg.m-3)
 Passenger transport              (µg.m-3)                Above maximum         AOT (max)
emission CO2 per capita in                                threshold NOx (%)
                                                                                  E120(domain)
a year (tons.yr-1.capita-1)
            These MODELS   may be applied for addressing the
                                       Population exposure
 ...   issues raised by the EU Air Quality Framework ...
                                       ...
                                                            Directive
Final Meeting and Project Review                                                  23/24 June 2003 Gdansk

				
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