WCRP at Thorpex Sep 2008 by qingyunliuliu

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									         International Polar Year Legacy and
             the Global Cryosphere Watch

                                 Vladimir Ryabinin
                                  (JPS for WCRP)

                     on behalf of
   Ed Sarukhanian (IPY) and Barry Goodison (GCW)

V. Ryabinin
15.10.2008, GCOS SC-16, Geneva
IPY
2007
2008
IPY
2007
2008
       Station Princess Elisabeth in Antarctica, 70oS, 23oE
       (Courtesy IPF, Belgium)
IPY
2007
2008


Expertise, equipment, logistics
and funds have been
contributed by Canada,
Denmark, EU, France, Germany,
Japan, Norway, Poland, USA,
Russia and the UK.
IPY
2007
2008
       CASO Hydrographic Sections:
          foundation for SOOS
IPY
2007
2008
IPY
2007
2008
       Increase in the number
       of reports on the GTS

            WWW monitoring from 1 to 15 July 2007
          (comparison with the same period of 2006):

        in the Arctic: + 8 synoptic stations reporting at 90-100%
        level on the coast and islands of the Euro-Asian sector;

        in the Antarctic: + 2 synoptic stations and
                          new upper-air station Concordia;

        in the Arctic Ocean: + 1000 BUOY reports;

        in the Southern Ocean: 18 000 (five times more) BUOY reports,
        & there is an increase in the number of TESAC reports (+39).
IPY
2007
2008




       Advances in the establishment of an Arctic hydrological cycle
        observing system and advances in polar hydrology


                   IPY Project 104:
        The Arctic Hydrological Cycle
         Monitoring, Modelling and
           Assessment Program
              (Arctic-HYDRA)



                Arctic-HYDRA promotes a fully
         pan-Arctic perspective for its IPY water studies




                                   http://www.arcticportal.org/arctichydra
IPY
2007
2008


       A strong step forward in permafrost monitoring




                IPY Project 50:
       Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP)




                                                   www.ipa-permafrost.org
Timeline of current and future satellites. The blue section highlights the interval of
the International Polar Year 2007-2008.
First Virtual Satellite
Constellation under the
umbrella of the Global
Interagency IPY Polar
Snapshot Year (GIIPSY)
proposed by CliC and
the IGOS Theme on
Cryosphere. It involves
all major satellite agencies
and has the emphasis on
the Synthetic Aperture
Radar sensors.


                               http://bprc.osu.edu/rsl/GIIPSY/
IPY
2007
2008
       Sub-Committee on IPY Observations has developed
       a draft roadmap towards IPY observing systems legacy.

       Main observing initiatives contributing
       to the creation of an IPY Legacy

         • Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON),
           with an Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System
           (iAOOS), Arctic-HYCOS, and Integrated AON
         • Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PAntOS),
           with a Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS),
         • The Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW),
         • Polar Satellite Constellation,
         • Polar Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF)
IPY
2007
2008       Contribution of the IPY legacy
           observing initiatives to WIGOS
       •   Atmosphere: SAON, PAntOS, PCOF & Polar Satellite Constellation
                       -> WWW/GOS, GCOS;

       •   Hydrology: Arctic HYCOS
                      -> WHYCOS, GCOS/GTOS

       •   Ocean: iAOOS and SOOS
                   -> polar GOOS;

       •   Cryosphere: GCW and Polar Satellite Constellation
                       -> GOOS (sea ice),
                          GTOS (the hydrological cycle, permafrost,
                                ice sheets, glaciers), and
                          GCOS as a whole.
IPY
2007
2008
       New coordination bodies
       able to contribute to
       the creation of IPY legacy:

          WMO EC Panel of Experts on
          Polar Observations, Research
          and Services

          Joint Bipolar Action Group
          of IASC and SCAR
IPY

           International Polar Decade -
2007
2008



       an opportunity to secure IPY legacy

        WMO EC-LX (June 2008),
        - recognized
        the unique opportunity for WMO in consultation
        with ICSU and other international organizations
        to consider launch of an International Polar
        Decade as long-term process of research and
        observations in Polar Regions to meet
        requirements of climate change studies and
        prediction to benefit societal needs.
IPY
2007
2008

         IPY data management activities
       • One of the main problems in the IPY implementation
         is absence of a support system for quick, easy and reliable
         identification of and access to IPY data, as well as of a
         formal pathway for IPY scientists to archive their data and
         metadata for future studies.

       • The WMO EC-LX (June, 2008) expressed appreciation for
         the IPY Joint Committee’s proposal to use the Canadian
         ArcticNet portal and its associated searchable metadata
         engine as an IPY portal, with partial funding offered by
         Canada. The Council considered the IPY data portal as
         being relevant to WIS and requested that it should be
         developed as a WIS pilot project fully compliant with the
         WIS standards.
              Global Cryosphere Watch-
                  A WMO Initiative
                        “The 15th WMO Congress (May 2007) welcomed
                        the proposal of Canada that WMO will create a
                        Global Cryosphere Watch which would be an
                        important component of the IPY legacy. Congress
                        requested the WMO Inter-commission Task Group
                        on IPY to establish an ad-hoc expert group to
                        explore the possibility of creation of such global
                        system and prepare recommendations for its
                        development.”




Legacy of CliC in the
area of observations
The cryosphere collectively describes
elements of the earth system containing
water in its frozen state and includes:

sea ice, icebergs, lake and river ice,
snow cover, solid precipitation,
glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, ice
shelves, permafrost and seasonally
frozen ground.
The cryosphere exists at all latitudes and in
about one hundred countries.
We do not consider ice phase in clouds.
                          Considerations

• IPY 2007-2008 identified Shrinking Snow and Ice: Rapid Changes
in Polar Regions as the first of four key issues requiring urgent
attention of polar science community;
• IPCC WG 1 and 2 reports highlighted for first time the importance of
the cryosphere, large observed changes of some elements of global
cryosphere and potential impacts on societies and countries;
• ACIA and ICARPII identified the cryosphere as a critical element in
monitoring and understanding changes in the Arctic System;
• cryosphere is an integrative element within climate system and
a sensitive and robust indicator of climate change;
• 2004-2007: the development of the conceptual framework
for the cryospheric observations through the IGOS Theme
on Cryosphere (approved May 2007).
                 GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH:
                  research, observation, monitoring,
            assessment, product development and prediction
Mission:
• implement the IGOS Cryosphere Theme (CryOS);
• support reliable, comprehensive observations of the elements of the
  cryosphere through an integrated observing approach on global and
  regional scales, in collaboration with relevant national and international
  programmes and agencies;
• provide the scientific community with the means to predict the future
  state of the cryosphere;
• facilitate assessment of changes in the cryosphere and their impact, and
  to use this information to aid the detection of climate change, support
  decision making and environmental policy development;
• provide authoritative information on the current state and projected fate
  of the cryosphere for use by the media, public, decision and policy
  makers.
                                                Example:
                                           Snow Water Equivalent

                                          SWE derived from AMSR-E
                                            for Western Canada




            Issues for GCW?
• evaluation of the product
• how consistent is the derived SWE
• evaluation of the algorithms
• transferability of algorithms
• usefulness of the product
• sustainability of product development
  and production
• when will this product be ready to
  transfer from research to operations
Comparison of Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Sept 27 2008
    NERSC (Arctic ROOS) vs NSIDC
                      Greenland Total Melt Area 1979-2007:
                    2007 value exceeds last maximum by 10 %
                                                                             1998




                                                Total Melt Area
                                                April - October
                    3.00E+07                                                                         2007
Area Melted (km2)




                                                                         1998                 2005
                    2.50E+07                                                           2002
                                              1987    1991
                                                               1995

                    2.00E+07



                    1.50E+07


                                       1983
                    1.00E+07                                      1996
                                                                                1996
                                                        1992


                    5.00E+06
                           1978     1983      1988      1993          1998             2003          2008
                                                                                                            GIIPSY
                                                       Year


                               Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder
     Cryospheric Sea Level Rise
                      2.5
                                                                        Source
                                                                      IPCC 2007: 1993 - 2003
                                           2.2
                                                                      Meier 2007: 2000 - 2005
                                                                      Grace 2008: 2007
                       2
                                    1.8
Sea Level Rise (mm)




                      1.5

                            1.22
                                                                                                   1.12 1.12

                       1
                                                                                            0.9


                                                                                     0.66

                                                                               0.5
                      0.5                                      0.44

                                                                        0.26
                                                        0.18
                                                 0.13

                       0
                                   Total           Antarcica             Greenland                Glaciers
             Global Cryosphere Watch - Initial Concept


• GCW will contribute to WMO’s integrated observing and information systems
and to the Global Climate Observing System network (like GAW does). It is
envisioned to include a network of stations, CryoNET, working on a coherent
agreed program on monitoring of changes in all components of the
cryosphere, producing valuable long-term records, covering key areas of the
globe with cryospheric observations.
• It will be an intergovernmental mechanism for supporting key cryospheric
in-situ and remote-sensing observations - while implementing the
recommendations of the IGOS Cryosphere Theme.
• GCW will work with, and build on, existing programs such as the GTN-G,
GTN-P, GTN-H, and work with external partners such as space agencies and
World Data Centers for Glaciology.
• GCW addresses virtually all of the 11 expected results of the WMO Strategic
Plan and requires an input and synergistic work of most of the WMO
Technical Commissions (e.g. CBS, CIMO, CHy, CCl, JCOMM) and several
WMO Programmes, and could provide an ideal test-bed for a WIGOS/WIS pilot
project.
• Initially, GCW is to be located within the Research Department, similar to
GAW, but with the clear understanding of working with the other departments.
           A conceptual model of the elements of a Global Cryosphere Watch
                                                                                     • public
                                                                                     • education
                                                                                     • science assessment
                                                    User Communities                 • public security
                                                                                     • impacts and adaptation
                                                                                     • research
     GCW roles                                                                       • operations
• Provide authoritative one-
   stop shop for real-time
 information on the state of
    the global cryosphere                             GCW Information Layer
     • Provide integrated      portal, anomaly tracking, hot-spots, variability and change (past, present, future),
   assessment of climate-                                 global and regional products
     cryosphere change



     GCW roles
  • Determine key products                                                                        GCW Regional
        and information              GCW Thematic Centers
                                 snow, sea ice, freshwater ice, frozen ground                       Centers
      • Validate products
                                          and permafrost, land ice                                 regional cryosphere
 • Promote R&D transfer to
                                                                                                        products
      operational centers
    • Science assessment




     GCW roles
• Enhance data sharing and                          GCW Data Layers – IGOS
  coordination e.g. CryOS           satellite, in situ, operational products, reanalyses, research datasets…
     • Trouble shooter
                                              Consultation
Response has been enthusiastic to date and the need for an integrated
   view of the cryosphere has been emphasized, building on and integrating what may be
   done currently. It has also been noted that for GCW to be successful, countries and
   agencies must first demonstrate the importance
   of the cryosphere to national and/or regional issues, and then how it will contribute to
   our understanding at the global scale.
•   Key North American cryosphere scientists from NMHS’s, academia and other agencies (users and providers of
    Cryospheric data and information) at the 2007 Joint Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic
    Society/American Meteorological Society Polar Meteorology and Eastern Snow Conference
•   GCOS Secretariat and Executive
•   TOPC – endorse GCW
•   WMO Secretariat from World Climate Program, World Climate Research Programme, Hydrology
    and Water Resources Department, Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme,
•   CliC (Climate and Cryosphere) Science Steering Group
•   CLIVAR Science Steering Group
•   Sustained Arctic Observing Networks Workshop
•   International Permafrost Association
•   GEO Secretariat
•   IPY Joint Committee
•   Asia-CliC 2nd Conference
•   US National Snow and Ice Data Center
•   Polar CLIPS
•   Canadian cryosphere community (Sep 30)
•   GCOS-16 (October)
•   International Ice Chart Working Group (October)
                              Status of works
• Dr. Barry Goodison has been seconded to WMO by the Environment Canada (1
  Sep 2008 to mid-March 2009).
• Environment Canada has released some funds from a WMO Trust Fund to
  support GCW related travel and meetings.
• Consultation within and outside WMO has been initiated.
• An ad hoc expert team is being established to prepare a scoping document to
  define the feasibility of developing and implementing a Global Cryosphere
  Watch within WMO.
                          GCOS SC is invited to
     1) note the major pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic observing initiatives aimed at
     securing the legacy of IPY and endorse them as a contribution to GCOS.
     2) support the idea of exploring an International Polar Decade as a means
     of facilitating more sustainable observations in Polar Regions.
     3) express support to consideration of the development of an IPY data
     portal as a WIS pilot project.
     4) note the establishment of the WMO EC Panel of Experts on Polar
     Observations, Research and Services, and, start identifying areas of
     cooperation and coordination between GCOS and Panel are required.
     5) endorse GCW as the mechanism for integrating cryospheric
     observations drawing on the work of GTOS, GCOS and GOOS, and
     6) identify an expert to join the ad-hoc expert team developing the
     scoping study for GCW.
V. Ryabinin
15.10.2008, GCOS SC-16, Geneva

								
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