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					          BEYOND POST-CASMIN
FROM THE THIRD TO THE FIFTH GENERATION
     IN SOCIAL MOBILITY RESEARCH


                           Wout Ultee
             Radboud University Nijmegen

     Presentation at the Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische
 Sozialforschung on the occasion of Walter Müller’s superannuation
                          January 27, 2007
         posted at http://www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee/
   GIVEN THE DIVISION OF LABOUR IN ACADEMIA
SOCIOLOGY SHOULD BE ABOUT HUMAN SOCIETIES IN
               THE PLURAL


HOWEVER POST-1945 DOMINANCE OF SOCIOLOGY BY
       THE U.S.A. LED TO THE STUDY OF
   CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY IN THE SINGULAR


AND DESPITE THE PRESENT SPATE OF COMPARISONS
            OF EUROPEAN SOCIETIES
 ‘WHY IS NOT THE WHOLE WORLD LIKE THE USA?’
                  QUESTIONS
         STILL ARE BEING ADDRESSED
   THE FOREMOST ACCOMPLISHMENT OF
       CASMIN AND ITS OFFSHOOTS
  IS THAT IT BROKE U.S.A. DOMINANCE IN
               SOCIOLOGY
CASMIN DID SO BY TURNING THE LIABILITY OF
     EUROPEAN POLITICAL DIVERSITY
     INTO A VALUABLE RESOURCE FOR
        SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
 AND POST-CASMIN DID SO BY COMPARING
 TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES DURING
    THE WHOLE OF THE 20TH CENTURY
(POST-)CASMIN IN THIS WAY PERFORMED THE
        PRIME JOB OF SOCIOLOGY
   THE POST-CASMIN SELF-UNDERSTANDING
 IS THAT SOUND EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES NOW
           HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED
   AND THAT THE JOB OF EXPLAINING THESE
        REGULARITIES IS UNDERWAY
POST-CASMIN SEEKS TO REPLACE EXPLANATIONS
      INVOLVING BLIND MACRO FACTORS
WITH DEEPER EXPLANATIONS INVOKING RATIONAL
             INDIVIDUAL ACTORS


        I BEG TO DIFFER – ON TWO COUNTS
                             FIRST

 IF AN EXPLANATION OF A SUPPOSEDLY SOUND
           REGULARITY IS AT HAND
  THEN THE CONDITIONS ARE KNOWN UNDER
  WHICH THIS REGULARITY IS STRONGER OR
                WEAKER
AS WELL AS THOSE UNDER WHICH IT IS ABSENT
AND A TEST OF THE EXPLANATION REQUIRES A
 HUNT FOR THESE EXCEPTIONAL CONDITIONS
POPPER IN ‘THE POVERTY OF HISTORICISM’ FROM 1944 AND ‘THE AIM OF
                      SCIENCE’ FROM 1957

THE SUPERFLUITY OF PAINSTAKING DESCRIPTIVE
                RESEARCH
   THE NECESSITY OF FOLLOW-UP RESEARCH
                         SECOND

      IF A REGULARITY PERTAINS TO SOCIETIES
 ITS EXPLANATION CANNOT BE PURELY INDIVIDUAL

THIS EXPLANATION USES A THEORY OF HUMAN ACTION
   AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES

THESE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS TAKE COMMUNITIES,
  MARKETS, OR STATES AS CONTEXTS FOR HUMAN
                    ACTION
 AND MORE PRECISELY AS WAYS OF COORDINATING
  THE ACTIONS OF THE INDIVIDUALS MAKING UP A
             SOCIETY’S POPULATION

AND THESE ASSUMPTIONS HOLD THAT MARKETS HAVE
BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES
         HEILBRONER, THE WORLDY PHILOSOPHERS , 1953
  THE SELF-UNDERSTANDING OF CASMIN IS THAT IT
        MADE PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO
               DATA ANALYSIS AND
              DATA PREPARATION


 DATA ANALYSIS BY WAY OF ODDS RATIOS AND THEIR
                  DERIVATIVES
    DATA PREPARATION BY WAY OF RECODING
OCCUPATIONAL TITLES OF PERSONS - TOGETHER WITH
  SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - FOR ALL THE
COUNTRIES INVOLVED INTO ONE AND THE SAME CLASS
                   SCHEME
            THIS SURELY IS PROGRESS
ALTHOUGH VALIDATION OF THE CLASS SCHEME BY WAY
     OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IS STILL OUT
 HOWEVER, OTHER FORMS OF PROGRESS ARE MORE IMPORTANT
     Ganzeboom, Treiman and Ultee 1991 ascertained progress by
   considering the questions in three generations of mobility studies
I now call the third generation the (POST-)CASMIN generation, coming
         after the Lipset generation and the Duncan generation

  PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO THE QUESTIONS
 BEING ADDRESSED RIGHT NOW AND EARLIER ON
   PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO THE THEORIES
    ADDUCED WHEN ASWERING EXPLANATORY
                QUESTIONS
    AND PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO THEORY-
          GUIDED DATA COLLECTION
 WHICH IS MORE STRATEGIC THAN DATA PREPARATION AND DATA
                        ANALYSIS
   The CASMIN generation proposed as the new exemplary
                        question

 How unequal is in a society at a certain point in time
the outcome of the competition between persons from
     higher and lower origins for higher and lower
                    destinations?


This question amounts to an interesting move towards auxiliary
                assumptions about societies

   From sociology as aggregate psychology in the
                 Lipset generation
  And cultural sociology in the Duncan generation
To rigged-market sociology in the CASMIN generation
After the CASMIN generation came the Mayer-Blossfeld generation

                    QUESTIONS LIKE
 HOW MUCH SOCIAL FLUIDITY IS THERE IN THE
             U.K. IN 1972?
                      ARE FLAWED


    FLUIDITY REFERS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
    PERSONS BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME
  WHICH UPSTAGES THE REFERENCE TO 1972

 SOME PERSONS HAVE LIVED LONGER THAN OTHER PERSONS

therefore A MOBILITY TABLE PERTAINS FOR SOME PERSONS TO A
        LONGER PERIOD THAN FOR OTHER PERSONS
The exemplary question of the Mayer-Blossfeld generation


ARE FOR THE MEMBERS ASOME POINT IN TIME
       OF A SOCIETY’S POPULATION
  THE CHANCES FOR THE EVENT OF MOVING
UPWARD OR DOWNWARD IN A CERTAIN ALWAYS
         EQUALLY LONG PERIOD
  NOT ONLY DEPENDENT UPON INDIVIDUAL
CHARACTERISTICS LIKE AGE AND EDUCATION
    BUT ALSO UPON COHORT AND PERIOD
           CHARACTERISTICS?
ALTHOUGH THE MAYER-BLOSSFELD GENERATION COLLECTED
 OCCUPATIONAL HISTORIES, MAINLY SINGLE EVENTS WERE
                    MODELLED
   WHERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT SERIES OF EVENTS OR
              CAREER TRAJECTORIES?
          POSSIBLE FIFTH GENERATION QUESTION

     IS AN OCCUPATIONAL CAREER A SELF-
       REINFORCING UPWARD PROCESS?
WILL A PERSON WHO ONCE MOVED DOWN BE
         PERMANENTLY SCARRED?
  Does an effect of person’s first occupation in a second
   generation path model indicate self-reinforcement?
 How about duration dependency in event history models
                for person-period data?
Which questions yields a close reading of Sennett’s stories
            about fragmented life histories?
    THE BEST MACROHYPOTHESES AROUND
              NISBET 1966

  THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO
INDUSTRY AND FROM AUTOCRACY TO
  DEMOCRACY MAKES A SOCIETY’S
        STRATA MORE OPEN
              LENSKI 1966

 TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS MAKES
  FOR MORE RIGID STRATIFICATION
      BUT WITH THE ADVENT OF
INDUSTRIALISM RIGIDITIES ARE OFFSET
  BY SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC POLICIES
     THE POST-CASMIN GENERATION NOW
   ADVOCATES MOVING FROM BLIND MACRO
  FACTORS TO RATIONAL INDIVIDUAL ACTORS
      IS THAT THE IMPORTANT NEW THING?
WITH RESPECT TO CLASS MOBILITY THE MAYER –
 BLOSSFELD GENERATION ADVOCATED MOVING
FROM QUESTIONS ABOUT VARYING TIME SPANS
TO QUESTIONS ABOUT EQUALLY LONG PERIODS
   THE IMPORTANT THING IS TO BREAK DOWN
   VARYING TIME SPANS INTO EQUALLY LONG
                 PERIODS!
 WITH RESPECT TO EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT THE FOURTH
GENERATION - IN THE PERSON OF MARE - ADVOCATED DROPPING
THE IDEA OF ONE-SHOT- DECISIONS AND ADOPTING THE IDEA OF
                 A SEQUENCE OF DECISIONS
                     But as far as contexts goes

   The CASMIN generation and the Mayer-Blossfeld
          generation bypass communities

   Contexts are too macro, not enough micro, and there is no meso


Macro contexts: cohort size, war, unemployment level as a time-varying
                               covatiate

   More macro contexts: percent of the population
disapproving of full-time working women with babies
      Micro contexts: mostly father and sometimes mother

 More micro contexts: spouse, siblings and children
 Meso contexts: school, neighbourhood, church and
                    sportclub
    THEORIES SCHEMATIZED FOR
    DATA COLLECTION PURPOSES
* Macro factor                                     * ActorS   sociology
sociology
- average income                                     – egos
                      * Individual sociology or      – several goals
- general rise in
                          aggregate psychology       – several resources
  education                                          – sequential decision
                          –   Individuals              processes
- industrialization       –   One goal               – collective actors
- democratization         –   One resource           – present and origin
                          –   One shot decisions       household
- technology                                         – meso communities
- ideology


                     After developing micro-explanations,
                  How about deriving conditions under which
           Lenski and Nisbet macro hypotheses hold and do not hold?
Fifth generation theory driven data
             collection
Moments
 – Household history
 – Religious history
 – Educational history
 – Sport club history
 – Job history
Fifth generation theory driven data
             collection
Contexts
 – Municipalities
 – Neighbourhoods
 – Schools
 – Employers
 – Economic sectors
 – Sport clubs
Fifth generation theory driven data
             collection
Actors
 – Primary respondent
 – Partner
 – Parent
 – Child
 – Sibling
  Multi-Moment data
  Multi-Actor data
  Multi-Context data

          3MAC data
  Dutch data collection to be turned
into European Union data collection?

           This presentation has been posted at
       http://www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee/

				
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