National Weather Service by qingyunliuliu

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									Severe Weather Planning


            Andy Bailey

     National Weather Service

   Kansas City / Pleasant Hill, MO



                                     1
            Agenda

• Importance of Weather

• NWS Overview

• What is available on the web

• Planning and Safety Rules


                                 2
  Economic and Societal Impacts
              Annual Cost        Deaths
Tornadoes :       $2.9 billion    44

Floods:           $2.4 billion    96

Hurricanes:       $6.4 billion    20

Winter Storms >   $1 Billion      47

Lighning >        $1 Billion      175

Hail              $2.3 Billion




                                          3
         Weather Impacts…
• Power generation costs

• Shipping costs

• Transportation costs (airlines etc)

• Building material costs

• Heating / cooling costs

• Food prices

• Insurance rates

• Employee costs
                                        4
        Weather Impacts…
How does weather impact your employees?

  – Telecommute?

  – Snow days at child’s school

  – Sick days

  – Missed / delayed flights




                                          5
How does weather affect
    your business?




                          6
What are you doing to
  plan for weather?




                        7
NWS Overview




               8
                             What We Do
• Produce Weather, Water and Climate
  Forecasts and Warnings
   – For All Americans
   – To Protect Life and Property
   – To Enhance the National Economy


• Data and Products:
   –   Government Agencies
   –   Private Sector
   –   The Public
   –   Global Communities


• Weather and data are becoming
  more important to economy and
  business decisions
   – “The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of
     weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.”
     USA Today, 6/19/01


                                                                                                9
                        What We Do
   The NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing severe weather
    warnings.
   Produce public, aviation, and fire weather forecasts
   Provide support to other local, state and federal government
    agencies.
   River and flood forecasts and services
   Largest data collection network in the world
   NOAA Weather Radio
   Skywarn Spotter Program
   Cooperative Observation Program
   Outreach projects




                                                                    10
National Weather Service Offices Nationwide




                                              11
 Background Information

• Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff available

• National Weather Service limits on services

• Private Weather Vendors

  – $$ for interpretation and customized
    service




                                                12
       How a Forecast was Made
2) Forecaster looks at forecast      .
   guidance from several numerical
   weather prediction models and
   begins making a mental image of
   the forecast




                                         13
        How a Forecast was Made
Once the forecaster creates
  the mental image of the
  forecast they then used
  to…
• Type the aviation forecast
• Type the public forecast
• Type the fire weather forecast


The forecaster could spend
  up to 3 hours a day typing!


                                   14
         New Forecast Method

• Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as
  base forecast

• Forecaster then adjusts the gridded model forecast in
  a digital forecast database to best match expected
  forecast

• Digital forecast database is the source for traditional
  forecasts, and new highly customized forecasts




                                                            15
Computer forecasts directly input
 into Graphical Forecast Editing
            Software




                                    16
Forecasters edit gridded digital
             data




                                   17
         Not Just Temperature

• Temp             • Probability of Precip

• Dewpoint         • Snow amounts

• RH               • Rain amounts

• Wind             • Numerous Fire Weather
                     Parameters
• Sky
• Weather




                                             18
             Formats Available

• Free in GIS integratable “grids”

• XML Web Service

• Graphics




           nws.noaa.gov/ndfd
                                     19
Every Local NWS Office has an extensive web page



  • Forecasts

  • Radar

  • Climate

  • Warnings




                                               20
        Getting Your Forecast




Click on yourother
 Available in
  location
   formats




                                21
Forecast in Yet Another Format…




                                  22
Interpreting Radar Data
      How Radar works




                          23
     NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
                         WSR-88D Capabilities
•   Reflectivity
    – “Hot” colors means more
      intense echoes (heavy
      rain/hail)
    – Simply a measure of
      “reflected” energy


• Velocity
    – “Warm” colors -Winds
      blowing
      away from the radar

    – “Cool” colors –
      Winds blowing
      toward the radar

                                                24
     Radar Precipitation Estimates


Overestimate Causes:
   •Hail Contamination
   •Evaporation in sub
       cloud layer

Underestimate Causes:
   •Tropical-like regimes




                                     25
 Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO

  – Provides an outlook up to seven days out to
    the potential for severe weather

• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch

  – Provides a few hours notice that conditions
    are condusive to severe weather should
    storms develop

• Warnings

  – Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
    imminent
                                                  26
Anticipating Severe Weather
               • Hazardous Weather
                 Outlook
                 – Focus on expected
                   threats.
                 – Seven day outlook
                   for severe weather.
                 – Issued twice daily
                   6 a.m. and 1 p.m.
                 – Broadcast
                   continuously on
                   NWR.


                                         27
 Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO

  – Provides an outlook up to seven days out to
    the potential for severe weather

• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch

  – Provides a few hours notice that conditions
    are conducive to severe weather should
    storms develop

• Warnings

  – Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
    imminent
                                                  28
          Severe Weather Watch
                   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
                   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73
                   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  WATCH            1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

                   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
Conditions are     PORTIONS OF
favorable for a             CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
severe weather              EASTERN KANSAS
                            MOST OF MISSOURI
event in or near
                   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
the watch area     1000 PM CST.
                   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
Watches are
                   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
issued for         THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
Tornadoes,         POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
                   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
Severe             MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA
Thunderstorms,     KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
                   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
Flash Floods       (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
and Floods         REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
                   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
                   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
                   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
                   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
                                                                                  29
 Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO

  – Provides an outlook up to seven days out to
    the potential for severe weather

• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch

  – Provides a few hours notice that conditions
    are conducive to severe weather should
    storms develop

• Warnings

  – Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
    imminent
                                                  30
      Severe Weather Warning
                      BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
                      TORNADO WARNING
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
                      807 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
                      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

 WARNING              * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
                       NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
                       NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
                       NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
                       SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
A severe weather       SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
                      * UNTIL 845 PM CST
event is imminent
                      * AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY
or occurring in the   DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO
                      MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
Warned area
                      * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
                       HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST.

Warnings are          THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
                      TORNADIC STORM.
issued for
Tornadoes, Severe     THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
                              Warned Area
                      WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
Thunderstorms,        AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
                      INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
Flash Floods, and     COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Floods                IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A
                      SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
                      DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
                      LAT...LON 3899 9365 3885 9359 3887 9293 3913 9295
                                                                                            31
County-Based VS Storm-Based Warnings




                                       32
      How Walmart Uses Polygons

Walmart EOC uses GIS to
overlay polygons onto a
store location map




Walmart EOC then calls
individual stores affected by
warnings alerting them of the
threat


                                  33
 Storm Prediction Center Website
       www.spc.noaa.gov

Good place for
large scale outlook
maps, and technical
discussions as to
severe weather
threats across the
country.



                                   34
     How To Receive Warnings
• NOAA Weather Radio

  – Nationwide network

  – Alarm Feature

  – Portable devices available

  – Programmable to customize
    by location or warning type
    desired

  – Equip every facility with one



                                    35
       Overall Planning/Safety
Before the season begins…

• Create your weather safety plan and train
  employees/volunteers

During the season…

• Maintain your situational awareness

• Assign a person or position to be the weather
  watcher

• If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to
  communicate appropriate threats and safety info

• Practice, Practice, Practice
                                                    36
 Threats From Thunderstorms

• The biggest threat from thunderstorms
  at outdoor events is lightning.
• Other risks include Hail…
  – straight-line winds >80 mph
  – possibly a tornado
  – flooding in multiuse areas

                                          37
 Threats From Thunderstorms-Lightning
• Kills more people than
  tornadoes
• Dangerous at great distances
  from parent storm
• 30-30 rule
   – If the time between seeing
     lightning and hearing
     thunder is less than 30
     seconds seek shelter
     immediately
   – Don’t emerge from shelter
     until 30 minutes after last
     thunder is heard-many
     deaths occur after the
     storm has passed
                                        38
  Threats From Thunderstorms-Hail

• If you event has thousands or
  even hundreds of attendees, the
  potential for numerous injuries is
  high.

• If you follow the 30/30 lightning
  rule, hail should not be an issue.




                                       39
          Questions to Ponder

• Do you have a severe weather plan for work and home? (if
  so do you practice it?)

• How can you integrate weather preparedness and data into
  your companies operations?

• How can your business perform better, and keep
  employees and customers safe using weather data?

• What’s stopping you from taking action?




                                                             40
Questions?
andy.bailey@noaa.gov




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