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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX June 2010

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					GfK Bulgaria
GfK Bulgaria     Consumer Confidence Index
                 ConsumerConfidence Index         June 2010
                                                   June 2010




                                                               1




    CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
                 A research proposal for Motana
    INDEX: June 2010
GfK Bulgaria     Consumer Confidence Index   June 2010




                                                         2




          1.   Consumer confidence
                at a glance
GfK Bulgaria               Consumer Confidence Index                                                     June 2010




Consumer Confidence Index in Bulgaria
                                                                                                                     3

     Consumer Confidence Index is an instrument that registers and tracks the changes in the consumer
     climate. European Commission uses this survey method as a part of indicators’ package for
     monitoring and evaluation of the economic situation in the European Union countries as well as in
     the applicant state’s economies.

     The Consumer Confidence Index method is a result of experiments conducted in France and
     Germany in the 70’s and especially professor’s Kantona and economists from Michigan University
     input on the significance of subjective judgments given by consumers for economical and social
     processes.

     The consumer's opinion on different economical factors not only determine their market behavior
     but also influence on the future development of the objective factors. Thus the consumer climate
     researches provide information for tracking the cyclic processes and define precisely the
     economy turning points and can be use for future prognosis.

     The Consumer Confidence Index has become an indispensable analytical and prognosis tool in
     Europe and USA, used by numerous economical agents - public and state departments,
     researchers, managers of private and multinational companies, foreign institutions, financial
     experts, universities, political organizations, information centers, banks etc.

     The Consumer Confidence Index is measured in Bulgaria from May 2001 as a part of Consumer
     Barometer Project financed by European Commission.
GfK Bulgaria                Consumer Confidence Index                                                      June 2010




Methodology
                                                                                                                       4
   In Bulgaria the project is realized by GfK Bulgaria. The survey is conducted at the beginning of each
   month on the basis of random representative sample of 1000 individuals aged over 15 years over the
   territory of the whole country.

   The Consumer Confidence Barometer keep track of consumer behavior on the base of six main
   indicators:


  •Evaluation of the household financial status

  •Evaluation of the overall economic situation in the country

  •Big purchases ability of the household

   •Unemployment expectations

   •Prices expectations

    •Savings ability



On the basis of those indicators is calculated the complex Consumer Confidence Index
GfK Bulgaria      Consumer Confidence Index   June 2010




                                                          5




          2.   Results
 GfK Bulgaria                                     Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                         June 2010


Consumer Confidence Index
Aggregate Index – Adult Opinion on Financial Status, Overall Economic Situation, Prices, Unemployment, Big Shopping
and Savings

                                                                                                                                                                                                      6
Better            0
                       Jul-01


                                Jan-02


                                         Jul-02


                                                    Jan-03


                                                             Jul-03


                                                                      Jan-04


                                                                               Jul-04


                                                                                        Jan-05


                                                                                                 Jul-05


                                                                                                          Jan-06


                                                                                                                   Jul-06


                                                                                                                            Jan-07


                                                                                                                                     Jul-07


                                                                                                                                              Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                         Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-10


                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-10
 Same
                  -5



                -10


                -15


                -20



                -25



                -30


                -35

Worse
                -40



                -45

                                                                                                   Consumer Confidence Index                           Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                     June 2010



Financial Situation of the Households: Last 12 Months
Question: How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                       7


 Better       0
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                      Jan-06


                                                                                                               Jul-06


                                                                                                                        Jan-07


                                                                                                                                 Jul-07


                                                                                                                                          Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                       Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                                Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-10
 Same
           -10




           -20




           -30




Worse
           -40




           -50

                                                                                                   Last 12 Months                                  Trendline 6 Months
Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                  June 2010
                                                                                                                                                                           J
                                                                                                                                                                           u
Financial Situation of the Households: Next 12 Months
Question: How do you expect the financial situation of your household to change over the next 12 months?
                                                                                                                                                                           n
                                                                                                                                                                           -                        8
            10                                                                                                                                                             1




                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                           0
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                   Jan-06


                                                                                                            Jul-06


                                                                                                                     Jan-07


                                                                                                                              Jul-07


                                                                                                                                       Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                    Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-10
Better




 Same         0




            -10




            -20




            -30
Worse




            -40
                                                                                           Next 12 Months                                       Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                June 2010



Overall Economical Situation: Last 12 Months
Question:How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the last 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                  9
              0
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                     Jan-06


                                                                                                              Jul-06


                                                                                                                       Jan-07


                                                                                                                                Jul-07


                                                                                                                                         Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                  Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                           Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-10
Better

            -10



 Same
            -20




            -30




            -40




            -50



Worse       -60




            -70

                                                                                                   Last 12 Months                            Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                June 2010



Overall Economical Situation: Next 12 Months
Question: How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                  10
            30




                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-10
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                   Jan-06


                                                                                                            Jul-06


                                                                                                                     Jan-07


                                                                                                                              Jul-07


                                                                                                                                       Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                  Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                           Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10
Better

            20



            10
 Same


              0



            -10



            -20



            -30


Worse
            -40



            -50

                                                                                                   Next 12 Months                               Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                               Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                  June 2010



Prices: Last 12 Months
Question: How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                   11
            90




                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-10
                 Jul-01




                                   Jul-02




                                                     Jul-03




                                                                       Jul-04




                                                                                         Jul-05




                                                                                                              Jul-06




                                                                                                                                Jul-07




                                                                                                                                                   Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-09
                          Jan-02




                                            Jan-03




                                                              Jan-04




                                                                                Jan-05




                                                                                                  Jan-06




                                                                                                                       Jan-07




                                                                                                                                         Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-10
            80
Increase

            70


            60


            50



            40


            30


            20

 Same
            10

Decrease
             0

                                                                                                           Last 12 Months                         Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                              June 2010



Prices: Next 12 Months
Question: By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the next 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                12
            60




                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-10
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                   Jan-06


                                                                                                            Jul-06


                                                                                                                     Jan-07


                                                                                                                              Jul-07


                                                                                                                                       Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                         Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-10
Increase 50



            40




            30




            20




            10



 Same         0


Decrease
            -10

                                                                                                       Next 12 Months                             Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                    June 2010



Unemployment: Next 12 Months
Question: How do you expect the number of people unemployed in the country to change over the next 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                      13
            70




                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-10
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                       Jan-06


                                                                                                                Jul-06


                                                                                                                         Jan-07


                                                                                                                                  Jul-07


                                                                                                                                           Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                      Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                               Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-10
Increase
            60



            50



            40



            30



            20



            10
 Same

              0

Decrease
            -10

                                                                                                   Next 12 Months                                   Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                   June 2010


Big Purchases: At Present
Question: In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to make major purchases such
as furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.?

                                                                                                                                                                                                     14
Increase      0




                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                   Jan-06


                                                                                                               Jul-06


                                                                                                                         Jan-07


                                                                                                                                  Jul-07


                                                                                                                                           Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                     Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                              Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-10
 Same
            -10



            -20




            -30




            -40




            -50

Decrease

            -60




            -70

                                                                                                            At Present                              Trendline 6 Months


Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                  June 2010


Big Purchases: Next 12 Months
Question: Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases (furniture,
electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12 months?

                                                                                                                                                                                                    15
Increase      0




                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-10
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                   Jan-06


                                                                                                               Jul-06


                                                                                                                        Jan-07


                                                                                                                                 Jul-07


                                                                                                                                          Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                    Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-10
 Same        -5


            -10


            -15


            -20


            -25


            -30


            -35


            -40
Decrease
            -45


            -50
                                                                                                            Next 12 Months                         Trendline 6 Months



Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
  GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                               June 2010



 Savings: At Present
 Question: In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is the right moment to save?

                                                                                                                                                                                                  16
               0




                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-10
                   Jul-01


                            Jan-02


                                     Jul-02


                                              Jan-03


                                                       Jul-03


                                                                Jan-04


                                                                         Jul-04


                                                                                  Jan-05


                                                                                           Jul-05


                                                                                                    Jan-06


                                                                                                             Jul-06


                                                                                                                       Jan-07


                                                                                                                                Jul-07


                                                                                                                                         Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                  Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                           Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10
 Same
             -10


             -20


             -30


             -40



             -50


             -60


             -70


             -80
Decrease
             -90
                                                                                                                  At Present                       Trendline 6 Months


 Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria                                Consumer Confidence Index                                                                                                                   June 2010



Savings: Next 12 Months
Question: Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?

                                                                                                                                                                                                     17
              0




                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-10
                  Jul-01


                           Jan-02


                                    Jul-02


                                             Jan-03


                                                      Jul-03


                                                               Jan-04


                                                                        Jul-04


                                                                                 Jan-05


                                                                                          Jul-05


                                                                                                   Jan-06


                                                                                                                Jul-06


                                                                                                                         Jan-07


                                                                                                                                  Jul-07


                                                                                                                                           Jan-08


                                                                                                                                                     Jul-08


                                                                                                                                                              Jan-09


                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-10
 Same
            -10


            -20


            -30


            -40



            -50


            -60


            -70


            -80
Decrease
            -90

                                                                                                            Next 12 Months                          Trendline 6 Months



Source: GfK Bulgaria Omnibus, National representative survey of Bulgarian population at age 15+
 GfK Bulgaria
 GfK Bulgaria      Consumer Confidence Index
                   ConsumerConfidence Index    June 2010
                                                June 2010




                                                            18




Contact:
Maria Momchilova
Custom Research Division
GfK Bulgaria
Tel.: 930 86 14
E-mail: maria.momchilova@gfk.com

				
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