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India Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010

Description:    India Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and
                gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and
                competitive intelligence on India's oil and gas industry.

                The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 13.19% of
                Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 10.48% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil
                use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should
                average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production
                was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to
                increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil.
                This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by
                2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014, the only net
                exporter will be Malaysia In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn
                cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated
                378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated
                81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major
                exporters. India’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 9.37%, while its share of
                production is put at 9.00%. By 2014 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 9.79%, with the
                country accounting for 10.81% of supply.

                For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl),
                a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast
                we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to
                US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to
                US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.

                For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having
                peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at
                33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high
                above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The
                annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in
                2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the
                previous year’s level.

                Indian real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 6.1% in 2009, down from 6.7% in 2008. We are
                assuming an annual average 6.8% growth in 2010-2014. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas
                Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2009 averaged
                an estimated 755,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see
                production peaking at around 950,000b/d by 2012. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4-5%
                per annum to 2014, implying demand of 3.83mn b/d by 2014. The import requirement would
                therefore be approximately 2.93mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set
                to rise from an estimated 43bcm in 2008 to 57bcm, with domestic supply up from around 34bcm in
                2009 to at least 55bcm by 2014.

                Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Indian oil production of 12.58%, with
                crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 950,000b/d, then falling steadily to 850,000b/d in 2019. Oil
                consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 49.35%, with growth slowing to an
                assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 4.48mn b/d by
                2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 34bcm in 2009 to a possible 70bcm by
                2019. With demand growth of 69.17%, India is likely to be importing up to 2.7bcm per annum of
                gas by the end of the period, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be
                found later in this report, which provide regional and country-specific projections.

                India ranks third, behind Vietnam, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a
                strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited
                competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits well ahead of
            Malaysia and China, but nine points behind Australia and just one behind Vietnam. The country is
            second and just one point behind China in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment
            rating, reflecting its status as a highgrowth energy market with strongly positive population and
            demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is four points ahead of Japan, with scope
            to pull further away from the more mature Asian energy economy.



Contents:   Executive Summary

            SWOT Analysis
            - India Political SWOT
            - India Economic SWOT
            - India Business Environment SWOT

            India Energy Market Overview

            Regional Energy Market Overview
            - Oil Supply And Demand
            - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
            - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
            - Oil: Downstream
            - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
            - Gas Supply And Demand
            - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
            - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
            - Liquefied Natural Gas
            - Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

            Business Environment Ranking
            - Asia Pacific Region
            - Composite Scores
            - Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
            - Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
            - Upstream Scores
            - Downstream Scores
            - India Upstream Rating – Overview
            - India Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
            - India Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
            - India Downstream Rating – Overview
            - India Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
            - India Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns

            Business Environment
            - Legal Framework
            - Infrastructure
            - Labour Force
            - Foreign Investment Policy
            - Tax Regime
            - Security Risk

            Industry Forecast Scenario
            - Oil And Gas Reserves
            - Oil Supply And Demand
            - Gas Supply And Demand
            - LNG
            - Refining And Oil Products Trade
            - Revenues/Import Costs
            - Table: India Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
            - Other Energy
            - Table: India Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
            - Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
            - Long-Term Energy Outlook
            Macroeconomic Outlook
            - Table: India – Macroeconomic Forecasts

            Competitive Landscape
            - Executive Summary
            - Table: Key Players – India Oil & Gas Sector
            - Overview/State Role
            - Table: Key Upstream Players
            - Table: Key Downstream Players

            Company Monitor
            - Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
            - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)
            - Hindustan Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL)
            - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)
            - Reliance Industries
            - Oil India Ltd (OIL)
            - GAIL (India)
            - Cairn India
            - BP – Summary
            - BG – Summary
            - Shell – Summary
            - Total – Summary
            - Oilex – Summary
            - GSPC – Summary
            - Eni – Summary
            - Essar Oil – Summary
            - Hardy Oil & Gas – Summary

            Glossary of Terms

            Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
            - Introduction
            - Ratings Overview
            - Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
            - Indicators
            - Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
            - Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology

            Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
            - Regional Oil Demand
            - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
            - Regional Oil Supply
            - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
            - Regional Refining Capacity
            - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
            - Regional Gas Demand
            - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
            - Regional Gas Supply
            - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
            - India Country Overview
            - Methodology & Risks To Forecasts

            BMI Forecast Modelling
            - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
            - Energy Industry
            - Cross Checks
            - Sources



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