Docstoc

5.4.2 SEVERE WINTER STORM

Document Sample
5.4.2 SEVERE WINTER STORM Powered By Docstoc
					                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


5.4.2 SEVERE WINTER STORM

This section provides a profile and vulnerability assessment for the severe winter storm hazard.

HAZARD PROFILE

This section provides profile information including: description, location and extent, previous occurrences
and losses and the probability of future occurrences.

Description

For the purpose of this HMP and as deemed appropriated by the County, most severe winter storm
hazards include heavy snow, blizzards, sleet, freezing rain and ice storms. These types of winter events or
conditions are further defined below. Northeasters or “Nor’Easters” are also a common type of storm that
may occur during winter months within the eastern portion of New York State. However, given the
frequency of Nor’Easters in the study area and their severe potential impact, Nor’Easter storms are
considered by the Suffolk County planning committee as a separate hazard and are further discussed in
Section 5.4.1 within this HMP.

    Heavy Snow: According to the National Weather Service (NWS), heavy snow is generally snowfall
    accumulating to 4 inches or more in depth in 12 hours or less; or snowfall accumulating to 6 inches or
    more in depth in 24 hours or less. A snow squall is an intense, but limited duration, period of
    moderate to heavy snowfall, also known as a snowstorm, accompanied by strong, gusty surface winds
    and possibly lightning (generally moderate to heavy snow showers) (NWS, 2005). Snowstorms are
    complex phenomena involving heavy snow and winds, whose impact can be affected by a great many
    factors, including a region’s climatologically susceptibility to snowstorms, snowfall amounts,
    snowfall rates, wind speeds, temperatures, visibility, storm duration, topography, and occurrence
    during the course of the day, weekday versus weekend, and time of season (Kocin and Uccellini,
    2004).

    Blizzard: Blizzards are characterized by low temperatures, wind gusts of 35 miles per hour (mph) or
    more and falling and/or blowing snow that reduces visibility to 0.25 miles or less for an extended
    period of time (three or more hours) (NWS, 2005).

    Sleet or Freezing Rain Storm: Sleet is defined as pellets of ice composed of frozen or mostly frozen
    raindrops or refrozen partially melted snowflakes. These pellets of ice usually bounce after hitting
    the ground or other hard surfaces. Freezing rain is rain that falls as a liquid but freezes into glaze
    upon contact with the ground. Both types of precipitation, even in small accumulations, can cause
    significant hazards to a community (NWS, 2005).

    Ice storm: An ice storm is used to describe occasions when damaging accumulations of ice are
    expected during freezing rain situations. Significant accumulations of ice pull down trees and utility
    lines resulting in loss of power and communication. These accumulations of ice make walking and
    driving extremely dangerous, and can create extreme hazards to motorists and pedestrians (NWS,
    2005).

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms
Laboratory (NSSL); every year, winter weather indirectly and deceptively kills hundreds of people in the
U.S., primarily from automobile accidents, overexertion and exposure. Winter storms are often
accompanied by strong winds creating blizzard conditions with blinding wind-driven snow, drifting snow

        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                   5.4.2-1
        October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


and extreme cold temperatures and dangerous wind chill. They are considered deceptive killers because
most deaths and other impacts or losses are indirectly related to the storm. People can die in traffic
accidents on icy roads, heart attacks while shoveling snow, or of hypothermia from prolonged exposure to
cold. Wind Chill is not the actual temperature but rather how wind and cold feel on exposed skin. As the
wind increases, heat is carried away from the body at an accelerated rate, driving down body temperature.
Animals are also affected by wind chill; however, cars, plants and other objects are not. Heavy
accumulations of ice can bring down trees and power lines, disabling electric power and communications
for days or weeks. Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, shutting down all air and rail
transportation and disrupting medical and emergency services. Storms near the coast can cause coastal
flooding and beach erosion as well as sink ships at sea. The economic impact of winter weather each year
is huge, with costs for snow removal, damage and loss of business in the millions (NSSL, 2006).

Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, stranding commuters, stopping the flow of
supplies, and disrupting emergency and medical services. Accumulations of snow can collapse buildings
and knock down trees and power lines. In rural areas, homes and farms may be isolated for days, and
unprotected livestock may be lost. In the mountains, heavy snow can lead to avalanches. The cost of
snow removal, repairing damages, and loss of business can have large economic impacts on cities and
towns (NSSL, 2006).

Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees, electrical wires, telephone poles and lines, and
communication towers. Communications and power can be disrupted for days while utility companies
work to repair the extensive damage. Even small accumulations of ice may cause extreme hazards to
motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before
other surfaces (NSSL, 2006).

Extreme cold often accompanies a winter storm or is left in its wake. Prolonged exposure to the cold can
cause frostbite or hypothermia and become life threatening. Infants and elderly people are most
susceptible. What constitutes extreme cold and its effect varies across different areas of the U.S. In areas
unaccustomed to winter weather, near freezing temperatures are also considered "extreme cold." Freezing
temperatures can cause severe damage to citrus fruit crops and other vegetation. Pipes may freeze and
burst in homes that are poorly insulated or without heat. In the north, below zero temperatures may be
considered as extreme cold. Long cold spells can cause rivers to freeze, disrupting shipping. Ice dams
may form and lead to flooding (NSSL, 2006).

Also, winter storms can generate coastal flooding, ice jams and snow melt, resulting in significant damage
and loss of life:

    •   Coastal Floods: Winds generated from intense winter storms can cause widespread tidal flooding
        and severe beach erosion along coastal areas.
    •   Ice Jams: Long cold spells can cause rivers and lakes to freeze. A rise in the water level or a thaw
        breaks the ice into large chunks that become jammed at man made and natural obstructions. Ice
        jams can act as a dam, resulting in severe flooding.
    •   Snowmelt: Sudden thaw of a heavy snow pack often leads to flooding (NSSL, 2006).

Location and Extent

Winter weather, particularly snowstorm events, has historically affected many U.S. states, mainly in the
Northeast and Midwest. The winter climate of New York State is marked by abundant snowfall. Winter
weather can reach New York State as early as October and is usually in full force by late November with
average winter temperatures between 20o and 40o F. As indicated in the NYS HMP, many communities

        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                    5.4.2-2
        October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


in New York State receive more snow than most other communities in the Nation. Although the entire
State is subject to winter storms, the easternmost and west-Central portions of the State are more likely to
suffer under winter storm occurrences than are other locations (New York State Disaster Preparedness
Commission [NYSDPC], 2008). With the exception of coastal New York State, which includes Suffolk
County, the State receives an average seasonal amount of 40 inches of snow or more. Most of
southeastern New York State, including New York City and all of Long Island receive the least amount of
snow in comparison to the rest of the State (Figure 5.4.2-1) (NWS, 2001).

Figure 5.4.2-1. Annual Mean Snowfall within the Eastern U.S. and New York State




Source: NWS, 2001

The magnitude or severity of a severe winter storm depends on several factors including a region’s
climatologically susceptibility to snowstorms, snowfall amounts, snowfall rates, wind speeds,
temperatures, visibility, storm duration, topography, and time of occurrence during the day (e.g., weekday
versus weekend), and time of season. The extent of a severe winter storm can be classified by
meteorological measurements, such as those above, and by evaluating its societal impacts. The Northeast
Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) categorizes snowstorms, including Nor’Easter events, in this manner.
Unlike the Fujita and Saffir-Simpson Scales that characterize tornados and hurricanes, respectively, there
is no widely used scale to classify snowstorms. NESIS was developed by Paul Kocin of The Weather
Channel and Louis Uccellini of the NWS to characterize and rank high-impact, northeast snowstorms.
Most of these storms have large areas of 10 inch snowfall accumulations and greater. NESIS has five
ranking categories: Notable (1), Significant (2), Major (3), Crippling (4), and Extreme (5) (Table 5.4.2-1).
The index differs from other meteorological indices in that it uses population information in addition to
meteorological measurements. Thus, NESIS gives an indication of a storm's societal impacts. This scale
was developed because of the impact northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of
transportation and economic impact (Kocin and Uccellini, 2004).
.
Table 5.4.2-1: NESIS Ranking Categories 1 - 5
                               NESIS
 Category     Description                                                 Definition
                               Range
                                          These storms are notable for their large areas of 4-in. (10-cm)
     1          Notable      1.0 – 2.49
                                          accumulations and small areas of 10-in. (25-cm) snowfall.
     2         Significant   2.5 – 3.99   Includes storms that produce significant areas of greater than 10-in. (25-


         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                             5.4.2-3
         October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


                                NESIS
 Category      Description                                                Definition
                                Range
                                           cm) snows while some include small areas of 20-in. (50-cm) snowfalls. A
                                           few cases may even include relatively small areas of very heavy snowfall
                                           accumulations [greater than 30 in. (75 cm)].
                                           This category encompasses the typical major Northeast snowstorm, with
                                                                                                                2
                                           large areas of 10-in. snows (generally between 50 and 150 × 103 mi —
      3           Major       4.0 – 5.99
                                           roughly 1–3 times the size of New York State with significant areas of 20-
                                           in. (50-cm) accumulations.
                                           These storms consist of some of the most widespread, heavy snows of
                                           the sample and can be best described as crippling to the northeast U.S,
                                           with the impact to transportation and the economy felt throughout the
      4          Crippling    6.0 – 9.99
                                           United States. These storms encompass huge areas of 10-in. (25-cm)
                                           snowfalls, and each case is marked by large areas of 20-in. (50-cm) and
                                           greater snowfall accumulations.
                                           The storms represent those with the most extreme snowfall distributions,
                                           blanketing large areas and populations with snowfalls greater than 10, 20,
      5          Extreme            10 +   and 30 in. (25, 50, and 75 cm). These are the only storms in which the
                                                                                              2
                                           10-in. (25-cm) accumulations exceed 200 × 103 mi and affect more than
                                           60 million people.
Source: Kocin and Uccellini, 2004

NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number
of people living in the path of the storm. These numbers are calculated into a raw data number ranking
from “1” for an insignificant fall to over “10” for a massive snowstorm. Based on these raw numbers, the
storm is placed into its decided category. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy
snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers (Enloe, 2007). Storms that have
occurred in the northeastern U.S. using this impact scale are listed in Table 5.4.2-2 in the “Previous
Occurrences and Losses” section of this HMP.

Snow Patterns on Long Island, New York (Nassau and Suffolk Counties)

The terrain over much of southern half of Long Island is a low lying gently sloping glacial outwash plain.
The Harbor Hill moraine and the Ronkonkoma moraine (See Figure 5.4.2-2), both hilly deposits of debris
left behind by retreating glaciers run nearly the length of Long Island across the north shore and over the
center of the island, respectively. While the elevations in these hilly areas are not great, they range up to
300 to 400 feet above sea level at a number of locations. Generally speaking, these elevations are not
high enough to result in significant amounts of precipitation, although it is likely that there is some minor
enhancement from added lift near Long Island's morainal hills. Although the contribution of orographic
lift to snowfall on Long Island is relatively minor, differences in elevation can sometimes produce
noticeable effects during individual snowfalls. Small differences in temperature resulting from a
combination of higher elevation and relative isolation from the warmer layer of marine air over the Long
Island Sound can make a difference in snowfall amounts.




          DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                            5.4.2-4
          October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-2. Harbor Hill and Ronkonkoma Terminal Moraine




                                       Harbor Hill Terminal Moraine




                                          Ronkonkoma Terminal Moraine



Source: North Shore Wx, Date Unknown

Long Island can be divided into several different zones which average differing amounts of snow during
the winter season. The snowiest parts of the north shore may average as much as 50-percent more annual
snowfall than the least snowy parts of the island. Limited data available suggest that average annual
snowfall at the snowiest location on Long Island may approach 35-in. Anecdotal evidence suggests that
parts of the West Hills area of Huntington town may one of the most snow-impacted places on Long
Island. The barrier islands off the south shore of Long Island are almost certainly among the least snowy
parts of the island (Northshore Wx, Date Unknown).

Overall, the NYSDPC and the New York State Emergency Management Office (NYSEMO) listed
Suffolk County as the 22nd County in the state most threatened by and vulnerable to snow and snow loss,
with an annual average snowfall of between 10 and 50 inches. Suffolk County is also listed as the 30th
County in New York State most threatened by and vulnerable to ice storms and ice storm loss (NYSDPC,
2008).

Previous Occurrences and Losses

Many sources provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with
winter storms throughout New York State and Suffolk County. With so many sources reviewed for the
purpose of this HMP, loss and impact information for many events could vary depending on the source.
Therefore, the accuracy of monetary figures discussed is based only on the available information
identified during research for this HMP.

According to Paul Kocin of The Weather Channel, Louis Uccellini of the NWS, and Jesse Enloe of
NOAA, over 74 snowstorm incidences were identified and ranked that affected the northeastern U.S
between 1888 and 2007 (Table 5.4.2-2) (Kocin and Uccellini, 2004; Enloe, 2007). These storms have
large areas of 10 inch snowfall accumulations and greater. Although the severity of these events may
vary throughout the State, many of these listed storms impacted Suffolk County to a limited extent. This
list does not represent all storms that may have impacted the northeastern U.S.




        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                 5.4.2-5
        October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Table 5.4.2-2: Snowstorm Cases That Affected the Northeastern U.S (1888 – 2007) (Arranged by Rank/Category)
                                                                                     Snowfall Range in
 Rank                Date                NESIS     Category          Description      Suffolk County
                                                                                        (in inches)
   1          March 12-14, 1993           12.52        5              Extreme               10-20
   2           January 6-8, 1996          11.54        5              Extreme               10-30
   3         February 15-18, 2003         8.91         4              Crippling             20-30
   4          March 11-14, 1888           8.34         4              Crippling             10-40
   5         February 11-14, 1899         8.11         4              Crippling             10-20
   6           March 2-5, 1960            7.63         4              Crippling             10-30
   7         January 21-24, 2005*         6.80         4              Crippling              NA
   8         February 10-12, 1983         6.28         4              Crippling             10-30
   9          February 5-7, 1978          6.25         4              Crippling             20-30
   10         February 2-5, 1961          6.24         4              Crippling             10-20
   11        February 14-17, 1958         5.98         3               Major                10-20
   12        January 19-21, 1978          5.90         3               Major                10-20
   13        January 11-14, 1964          5.74         3               Major                10-20
   14       February 12-15, 2007*         5.63         3               Major                 1-4
   15       December 25-28, 1969          5.19         3               Major                 0-4
   16        January 29-31, 1966          5.05         3               Major                 0-4
   17        January 21-23, 1987          4.93         3               Major                 0-4
   18          January 7-8, 1988          4.85         3               Major                 NA
   19        February 8-12, 1994          4.81         3               Major                10-30
   20       December 11-13, 1960          4.47         3               Major                10-20
   21        January 22-23, 1966          4.45         3               Major                 NA
   22        February 17-19, 1979         4.42         3               Major                 0-4
   23       December 24-25, 2002          4.42         3               Major                4-10
   24        February 18-20, 1972         4.19         3               Major                  0
   25        February 14-15, 1960         4.17         3               Major                 NA
   26        January 16-18, 1978          4.10         3               Major                 NA
   27       February 12-13, 2006*         4.10         3               Major                10-20
   28        February 22-28, 1969         4.01         3               Major                 0-4
   29         March 18-21, 1958           3.92         2             Significant            4-20
   30         February 5-7, 1967          3.82         2             Significant            10-20
   31       December 23-25, 1966          3.79         2             Significant             0-4
   32           April 6-7, 1982           3.75         2             Significant            4-20
   33          March 3-5, 1971            3.73         2             Significant             NA
   34         March 12-13, 1959           3.64         2             Significant             NA



        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                     5.4.2-6
        October 2008
                              SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


                                                                                  Snowfall Range in
Rank                Date                NESIS     Category          Description    Suffolk County
                                                                                     (in inches)
 35         January 27-29, 1922          3.63         2             Significant         4-20
 36           March 3-5, 2001            3.53         2             Significant          0
 37          February 2-4, 1995          3.51         2             Significant          0-4
 38        December 26-27, 1947          3.50         2             Significant         4-30
 39         January 18-21, 1961          3.47         2             Significant        10-20
 40           March 2-4, 1994            3.46         2             Significant          NA
 41         February 8-10, 1969          3.34         2             Significant         4-20
 42        December 19-20, 1995          3.32         2             Significant          NA
 43        December 22-23, 1963          3.17         2             Significant          NA
 44         January 24-26, 2000          3.14         2             Significant          0-4
 45        December 10-12, 1992          3.10         2             Significant          NA
 46         January 13-15, 1982          3.08         2             Significant          NA
 47          March 16-17, 1956           2.93         2             Significant          NA
 48           January 3-5, 1994          2.87         2             Significant          NA
 49           March 6-7, 1962            2.76         2             Significant          NA
 50           January 3-4, 2003          2.65         2             Significant          0
 51          March 15-18, 2007*          2.55         2             Significant          1-4
 52        December 30-31, 2000          2.48         1               Notable           4-20
 53         February 19-20, 1964         2.39         1               Notable            NA
 54        March 31-April 1, 1997        2.37         1               Notable            0
 55        November 25-27, 1971          2.33         1               Notable            NA
 56           January 1-2, 1987          2.26         1               Notable            NA
 57          March 18-19, 1956*          2.23         1               Notable           1-30
 58          March 15-16, 1999           2.20         1               Notable            NA
 59         February 16-17, 1952         2.17         1               Notable            NA
         December 31 – January 1,
 60                                      2.10         1               Notable            NA
                  1971
 61          February 2-4, 1996          2.03         1               Notable            NA
 62         December 4-5, 2002           1.99         1               Notable            0
 63         January 16-17, 1965          1.95         1               Notable            NA
 64          March 28-29, 1984           1.86         1               Notable            NA
 65         January 25-26, 1987          1.70         1               Notable           4-10
 66         February 16-17, 1996         1.65         1               Notable            NA
 67         February 14-15, 1962         1.59         1               Notable            NA
 68        December 26-27, 1990          1.56         1               Notable            0-4



       DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                 5.4.2-7
       October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


                                                                                                         Snowfall Range in
    Rank                  Date                  NESIS      Category           Description                 Suffolk County
                                                                                                            (in inches)
     69         February 22-23, 1987             1.46           1                Notable                          4-10
     70        December 23-25, 1961              1.37           1                Notable                           NA
     71         December 3-5, 1957               1.32           1                Notable                           NA
     72            March 8-9, 1984               1.29           1                Notable                           NA
     73          March 21-22, 1967               1.20           1                Notable                           NA
     74          February 6-7, 2003              1.18           1                Notable                           0-4
Source:     Kocin and Uccellini, 2004; Enloe, 2007
Note:       The two sources used for this table identify different NESIS ratings for each event; therefore, the NESIS rating may
            vary upon reviewing the source.
*           Additional events listed by Jesse Enloe (NOAA) between 2003 and 2007 that were not identified by Kocin and
            Uccellini.
NA          Information regarding actual snowfall totals was not provided for these events.

Between 1953 and 2007, FEMA declared that New York State experienced over 18 winter storm-related
disasters (DR) or emergencies (EM) classified as one or a combination of the following disaster types:
winter storms, severe storms, coastal storms, ice storm, blizzard, snowstorm, severe Nor’Easter and
flooding. Generally, these disasters covered a wide region of the State; therefore, they may have
impacted many counties. However, not all counties were declared as disaster areas. Of those events, the
NYS HMP and other sources indicate that Suffolk County disaster or emergency declarations as a result
of 3 winter storm events (FEMA, 2008; NYSDPC, 2008). Events identified as Nor’Easter events are also
discussed in more detail in Section 5.4.1 in the HMP. Table 5.4.2-3 summarizes the FEMA Presidential
Disaster (DR) or Emergency (EM) Declarations for the County.

Table 5.4.2-3. Presidential Disaster and Emergency Declarations for Severe Winter Storm Events for New York
State and Suffolk County
                                                      Declaration
          Type of Event                Date                                          Cost of Losses (approximate)
                                                       Number
                                                                           Listed as a top billion dollar weather disaster storm,
                                                                           impacting 26 states and resulted in approximately
                                                                           $3 B in damages. FEMA declared an EM in 17
                                                                           states, including New York State. New York State
    Blizzard / Nor’Easter             March
                                                        EM 3107            experienced approximately $8.5 M in eligible
(“The Storm of the Century”)          1993
                                                                           damages (NYSDPC). 10 to 20 inches of snow fell
                                                                           throughout Suffolk County. Suffered significant
                                                                           coastal erosion. Type of damage, monetary losses,
                                                                           and location were not reported for Suffolk County.
                                                                           New York State experienced approximately $21.3
                                                                           M in eligible damages (NYSDPC). 10 to 30 inches
                                                                           of snow fell throughout Suffolk County. 50-year-old
                                                                           casino bar and restaurant in Davis Park (on Fire
                                  January 6-8,
     Blizzard / Nor’Easter                              DR 1083            Island) was swept into the sea. Three homes in the
                                     1996
                                                                           Fire Island Pines were destroyed, and Gilgo Beach
                                                                           lost 50 to 75 feet of sand. Just after high tide, up to
                                                                           2 feet of water flooded downtown Ocean Beach
                                                                           where 150 families live.
                                                                           Resulted in approximately $20 M in losses
                                    February
           Snowstorm                                    EM 3184            throughout northeastern U.S. 20 to 30 inches of
                                     2003
                                                                           snow fell throughout Suffolk County.
Source: FEMA, 2008; Kocin and Uccellini, 2004
Notes: Recorded losses indicate the dollar value funding made available to the local entities as a result of the disaster
declaration; it does not reflect all categories of loss incurred. Also, other declarations exist for Nor’Easter events, which are
presented in Section 5.4.1.


           DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                                          5.4.2-8
           October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM



Based on all sources researched, many winter storm events have impacted Suffolk County, as summarized
in Table 5.4.2-4. With severe winter storm documentation for New York State being so extensive, not all
sources may have been identified or researched. Hence, Table 5.4.2-4 may not include all events that
have occurred throughout the region.

Table 5.4.2-4. Severe Winter Storm Events between 1779 and 2007

       Event Date / Name              Location          Losses / Impacts                   Source(s)

     Northeast’s Hard Winter
                                    New York State              NA                   Newsday.com, DeWan
           1779-1780
                                                           A train near Port
                                                      Jefferson was snowed
            Blizzard                Suffolk County      in. High tide during
                                                                                       NY Times Archives
        February 2, 1878            (Brookhaven)          the event caused
                                                           flooding in Port
                                                               Jefferson.
  Blizzard of ‘88 or “Great White                         10 to 40 inches of      Nor’Easter History – ocean-
            Hurricane”                Multi-State       snow fell throughout    beach.com (Fire Island), Brunner,
        March 11-14, 1888                                  Suffolk County.         Kocin and Uccellini, NWS
                                                          10 to 20 inches of
            Blizzard
                                      Multi-State       snow fell throughout           Kocin and Uccellini
      February 11-14, 1899
                                                           Suffolk County.
                                                      4 to 30 inches of snow
          Blizzard                   Northeastern
                                                      fell throughout Suffolk      NSIDC, Kocin and Uccellini
     December 26-27, 1947                U.S.
                                                                County.
                                                           25.8-in. of snow
            Blizzard                 Northeastern
                                                       throughout New York               Patchogue HMP
          January 1948                   U.S.
                                                                 State
                                                      1 to 30 inches of snow
           Blizzard
                                      Multi-State     fell throughout Suffolk          Kocin and Uccellini
       March 18-19, 1956
                                                                County.
                                                          10 to 30 inches of
            Blizzard
                                      Multi-State       snow fell throughout           Kocin and Uccellini
         March 2-5, 1960
                                                           Suffolk County.
                                                           $36 K and 2.57
                                                         fatalities. 10 to 20      Hazards and Vulnerability
         Winter Storm                Southeastern
                                                         inches of snow fell     Research Institute (SHELDUS),
     December 12-13, 1960           New York State
                                                         throughout Suffolk           Kocin and Uccellini
                                                                County.
                                                          10 to 20 inches of
            Blizzard
                                      Statewide         snow fell throughout    Northshore Wx, Kocin and Uccellini
       February 2-5, 1961
                                                           Suffolk County.
                                                          10 to 20 inches of
            Blizzard
                                      Multi-State       snow fell throughout           Kocin and Uccellini
      February 11-14, 1964
                                                           Suffolk County.
                                                          10 to 20 inches of
            Blizzard
                                      Multi-State       snow fell throughout           Kocin and Uccellini
       February 5-7, 1967
                                                           Suffolk County.
                                                           25+-in. of snow
                                                       throughout New York
      Blizzard / Nor’Easter          Northeastern      State. 4 to 20 inches       Patchogue HMP, Kocin and
      February 8-10, 1969                U.S.                 of snow fell                 Uccellini
                                                         throughout Suffolk
                                                                County
         Winter Storm                                      $100 K and 1.2           Hazards and Vulnerability
                                    New York State
       December 17, 1973                                       Fatalities         Research Institute (SHELDUS)



        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                           5.4.2-9
        October 2008
                              SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM



    Event Date / Name              Location          Losses / Impacts                       Source(s)


        Ice Storm                North Shore,
                                                              NA                          Northshore Wx
    January 13-14, 1978          Long Island
                                Suffolk County      10 to 20 inches of
         Blizzard
                                (Islip received    snow fell throughout         Northshore Wx, Kocin and Uccellini
    January 19-20, 1978
                                  most snow)          Suffolk County.
                                                    10 to 30 inches of
                                                   snow fell throughout
                                                      Suffolk County.
                                                                                   Northshore Wx, Long Island
     “Blizzard of 1978”          Northeastern         Suffolk County
                                                                                   Hurricane History, Kocin and
    February 5-7, 1978               U.S.          experienced over $4
                                                                                            Uccellini
                                                   M in losses, mostly in
                                                        the Town of
                                                       Brookhaven.
          Blizzard
                                  Long Island                 NA                          Northshore Wx
        April 6, 1982
                                                     10 to 30 inches of
         Blizzard                                                                  Northshore Wx, Long Island
                                  Long Island       snow fell throughout
   February 10-12, 1983                                                                 Hurricane History
                                                      Suffolk County.
“Storm of the Century” or “93
                                                    See FEMA Disaster
        Superstorm”                                                             FEMA, NYSDPC, Wikipedia, Kocin
                                   Statewide           Declarations
     March 12-15, 1993                                                                  and Uccellini
                                                      (Table 5.4.2-3)
     (FEMA EM 3107)
                                                     10 to 30 inches of
         Blizzard
                                  Multi-State       snow fell throughout        NCDC NOAA, Kocin and Uccellini
    February 8-12, 1994
                                                      Suffolk County.
      “Blizzard of ‘96”                             See FEMA Disaster            FEMA, NSIDC, Northshore Wx,
                                 Southern New
     January 6-8 1996                                  Declarations              Long Island Hurricane History,
                                  York State
     (FEMA DR 1083)                                   (Table 5.4.2-3)                      NYSDPC
                                                                                   NOAA-NCDC, Hazards and
        Black Ice                                      24 injuries and 1
                                  Countywide                                      Vulnerability Research Institute
     January 22, 1997                               fatality related to falls
                                                                                           (SHELDUS)
                                                         Snow totals
                                                     throughout Suffolk
  Snowstorm / Nor’Easter                            County ranged from
                                  Long Island                                                  NWS
     March 4-7, 2001                               5.6 inches in Montauk
                                                   Point to 16.0 inches in
                                                       East Setauket.
                                  Areas within
 “Long Island Sound Effect”                         3 inches of snow fell
                                 the vicinity of
           event                                    between Huntington                    Northshore Wx
                                the Long Island
      January 7, 2002                                 and Stony Brook
                                     Sound
                                                   4 to 10 inches of snow
   Christmas Nor’Easter
                                  Countywide       fell throughout Suffolk          Kocin and Uccellini, NWS
  December 24-26, 2002
                                                            County.
                                                                                  FEMA, Governor Pataki Press
  “President's Day Storm”                           See FEMA Disaster
                                 Southeastern                                        Releases, Hazards and
   February 17-18, 2003                                Declarations
                                New York State                                    Vulnerability Research Institute
     (FEMA EM 3184)                                   (Table 5.4.2-3)
                                                                                           (SHELDUS)
         Blizzard                                   15.5 inches of snow
                                  Long Island                                       Northshore Wx, NY Times
     December 6, 2003                                fall in Smithtown
        Snowstorm               North Shore of
                                                              NA                          Northshore Wx
   January 27-28, 2004          Suffolk County
         Sea Ice                Smithtown Bay,
                                                              NA                          Northshore Wx
     February 1, 2004           Suffolk County
 Christmas Eve Snowstorm                             Highest amounts of
                                Suffolk County                                                 NWS
  December 24-27, 2004                               snowfall during this

     DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                               5.4.2-10
     October 2008
                                  SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM



        Event Date / Name                 Location           Losses / Impacts                       Source(s)

                                                           storm reported in East
                                                            Hampton 8.7 in. and
                                                               Montauk 8.0 in.
                                                                 Snow totals
                                                             throughout Suffolk
           Snowstorm                                        County ranged from
                                       Suffolk County                                                  NWS
       January 14-15, 2005                                 4.0 inches in Peconic
                                                               to 8.1 inches in
                                                                   Selden
            Snowstorm
                                             NA                      NA                           Northshore Wx
         January 19, 2005
                                                                  Snow totals
                                                              throughout Suffolk
            Blizzard                                         County ranged from
                                       Suffolk County                                         NWS, Northshore Wx
       January 22-23, 2005                                 10.4 inches in Shirley
                                                               to 19.5 inches in
                                                                Baiting Hollow
                                                             February 25th storm
                                                            resulted in 7.5 inches
                                                             in Sag Harbor. The
                                                                March 11th-12th
                                                           snowstorm resulted in
     Snowstorms (5 storms)
                                         Long Island              snow totals                 Northshore Wx, NWS
  February 21 – March 12, 2005
                                                              throughout Suffolk
                                                             County ranged from
                                                               3.5 inches in Bay
                                                           Shore to 8.0 inches in
                                                                  Patchogue.
                                                            Resulted in a total of
                                       Suffolk County        $5 M in damages to
                                       (Islip, Medford      multiple states. 10 to
        “Blizzard of 2006”
                                         and Wading        20 inches of snow fell          NWS, Kocin and Uccellini
       February 11-12, 2006
                                       River received         throughout Suffolk
                                         most snow)        County. Islip received
                                                           the most at 20 inches.
             Snowstorm
                                          Multi-State                   NA                             Newsday.com
          February 16, 2007
Note (1):       This table does not represent all events that may have occurred throughout the County due to a lack of detail
                and/or their minor impact upon the County. The NOAA NCDC storm query indicated that Suffolk County has
                experienced 43 snow and ice storm events January 1, 1950 and May 31, 2008. However, most events are
                regional events not specific to Suffolk County alone. Therefore, not all of these events were identified in this
                table due to minimal information made available or their minor impact on the County.
Note (2):       Monetary figures within this table were U.S. Dollar (USD) figures calculated during or within the approximate
                time of the event. If such an event would occur in the present day, monetary losses would be considerably
                higher in USDs as a result of inflation.
Note (3):       Casualties and damage information are sometimes listed without sufficient spatial reference. In order to assign
                the damage amount to a specific county, the fatalities, injuries and dollar losses are divided by the number of
                counties affected from the events (SHELDUS, 2007).
DR              Federal Disaster Declaration
EM              Federal Emergency Declaration
FEMA            Federal Emergency Management Agency
K               Thousand ($)
M               Million ($)
NA              Not Available
NOAA-NCDC National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration – National Climate Data Center
NSIDC           National Snow and Ice Data Center
NWS             National Weather Service
SHELDUS         Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the U.S.


         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                                    5.4.2-11
         October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Further descriptions of particular severe winter storm events that have impacted Suffolk County are
provided for selected events where details regarding their impact were available. These descriptions are
provided to give the reader a context of the winter storm and extreme cold events that have affected the
County and to assist local officials in locating event-specific data for their municipalities based on the
time and proximity of these events.

Monetary figures within the event descriptions were U.S. Dollar (USD) figures calculated during or
within the approximate time of the event (unless present day recalculations were made by the sources
reviewed). If such an event would occur in the present day, monetary losses would be considerably
higher in USDs as a result of inflation.

March 11-14, 1888 (“Blizzard of ’88” or “Great White Hurricane”): The “Blizzard of ’88,” remains
perhaps the most infamous and unpredictable of all Northeast snowstorms. This event paralyzed the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine, and including the Maritime
provinces of Eastern Canada (Figures 5.4.2-3 and 5.4.2-4). Telegraph infrastructure was disabled,
isolating New York City, Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C. for days. Two hundred
ships were grounded and at least one hundred seamen died. Fire stations were immobilized; property
losses from fire alone were estimated at $25 million. It was identified that over 3 feet of snow had
accumulated within various locations of Suffolk County, particularly in the western and central sections
of the County.

Specific monetary losses were not documented in the materials available for review for Suffolk County;
however, individual experiences are documented as follows by a 2000 Long Island Genealogy source:

    •   John Tooker of Islip, indicated that “Some small buildings were completely covered by drifts.
        The wind swept the ground bare in front of our kitchen door, and piled up the snow in a drift that
        reached so high it closed off the view from two of our front room windows.”
    •   Margie Crossman of Huntington indicated that “Main Street in Huntington was filled up with ten
        or fifteen feet. It was so piled up that all the principal stores on the north side of Main Street
        moved all their goods to the second floor at the least sign of rain. When Main Street was dug out
        only narrow roads just wide enough for one way were dug. All the roads had to be dug out before
        they could be used. In some places they had to turn into the lots and make the road run through
        them for a ways. The trains are all blocked up. The one that started for New York from here last
        Monday has not got there yet and the one that left New York for here is a little more than half
        way here. The telegraph wires were all broken so that since one week ago yesterday only thirteen
        teen telegrams have been received in Huntington.” (Long Island Geneology, 2000)




        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                 5.4.2-12
        October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-3. Blizzard of ’88 - NESIS Category 4 Ranking




Source: Kocin and Uccellini, 2004

Figure 5.4.2-4. Blizzard of ’88 – Village of Hempstead (Nassau County) in Long Island, New York




Source: Long Island Library, 2006
Note: This photograph is not of a Suffolk County community; however, this is an indication of potential snow accumulations
within the neighboring Suffolk County.

December 26, 1947 (“Big Snow”): A post-Christmas storm caught New York residents by surprise,
dropping two feet of snow in 24 hours (NSIDC, Date Unknown). The storm would eventually become
the worst blizzard in New York City and surrounding areas since 1888. Beginning the day after
Christmas, 25.8 inches (nearly 100 million tons) of snow were dropped on city streets. Thousands of
commuters were trapped in the city, stranded on trains and subways. Over 30,000 men worked for an
entire week at a cost of $6 million to remove the snow. Seventy-seven people died in eight northeastern
states (Thinkquest, Date Unknown).




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                                   5.4.2-13
         October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


February 2-5, 1961: This 1961 storm produced a maximum of 40 inches of snow in central New York
State (Figure 5.4.2-5). In Suffolk County, 10 to 20 inches of snow fell during this event (Kocin and
Uccellini, 2004; Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, 2008).

Figure 5.4.2-5. February 1961 Snowfall Totals




Source: Evans, 2007

January 13-14, 1978 (Ice Storm): After several minor snowfalls, this was the first major storm to hit
Long Island during the winter of 1977-78. This was part of a storm that caused wide spread wintry
weather along the east coast. Downed tree limbs and electrical lines caused major power outages from
southern New England all the way down to central Georgia and Alabama. As ice accumulated, power
outages began to occur widespread across large parts of the island, especially along the north shore. The
governor of New York State activated the National Guard to assist with the cleanup on Long Island and
utility crews were brought in from hundreds of miles away to help with the repair of power lines (North
Shore Wx, Date Unknown).

January 19-20 1978 (Near-Blizzard): The near-blizzard of January 19 - 20, 1978, was a surprise storm,
creating a significant impact over a wide area of the northeast. Specific losses or impacts for Suffolk
County are not documented; however, it was recorded that Islip received 17.0 inches of snow and
Patchogue received 16.0 inches of snow (North Shore Wx, Date Unknown).



         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                               5.4.2-14
         October 2008
                                 SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


February 5-7, 1978 (“Blizzard of ‘78”): This event generated blizzard conditions across the Northeast.
Long Island and New England were the hardest hit with near hurricane strength winds, thunder snow, and
36-hour storm duration (Weather2000, 2007).

By February 7th, the storm had tracked north and taken on the cyclonic counter-clockwise flow
characteristic of Nor’Easters. At its peak, storm winds reached speeds of 86 mph with gusts of 111 mph.
Along the New England Coast, more than 1,700 homes suffered major damage or were destroyed and
39,000 people took refuge in emergency shelters. Federal disaster assistance totaled $202 million.

A 1978 news article written by Walter Kelly estimated that over $4 million in losses to Suffolk County
resulted from the 1978 Blizzard, particularly in Brookhaven. Brookhaven received over 25 inches of
snow during this event, which resulted in over $1 million in cleanup costs to residents. The cost to
private businesses and individual in terms of storm damages, cleanup costs, snow removal, lost wages,
and sales was roughly estimated at another $2.6 million. Medford and Farmingville were also hit hard by
the storm. The event resulted in one death and the destruction of 16 vacation homes along Fire Island. At
Davis Park, Fire Island, four homes were washed down sand dues, and an additional 12 houses on Dune
Road, Westhampton Beach remained perched precariously on stilts, surrounded by the ocean.
Countywide, more than 80 beach front homes were toppled. The eight mile stretch of Fire Island suffered
serious erosion. Many vehicles throughout Long Island were abandoned in place during the storm,
particularly along major highways, including Sunrise Highway (Figure 5.4.2-6). The worst hit areas in
Suffolk County include Patchogue (Figure 5.4.2-7), Bellport, Brookhaven, Fire Island, Davis Park, Mastic
Beach, Moriches and the Hampton Bays (Long Island Hurricane History, 2007)

Figure 5.4.2-6. Blizzard of ‘78 – Abandoned Vehicles along Sunrise Highway




Source: Long Island Hurricane History, 2007
Note: Abandoned cars buried under snow along Sunrise Highway within Suffolk County after ‘78 Blizzard




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                     5.4.2-15
         October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-7. Blizzard of ‘78 in Patchogue, New York




Source: Long Island Hurricane History, 2007
Image Caption: “The Four Corners in Patchogue was nearly deserted early Tuesday afternoon during the 23-inch snowstorm, but
highway crews soon had streets ready for traffic.”

February 10-12, 1983 (“Megalopolitan Blockbuster Snowstorm”): This snowstorm dumped one to
three feet of snow from Virginia to southern New England. Specific losses or impacts for Suffolk County
are not documented. Achieving a NESIS rating of 6.28, this event firmly places itself in the Major
category (Figure 5.4.2-8).

Figure 5.4.2-8. February 1983 - NESIS Category 3 Ranking




Source: Kocin and Uccellini, 2004



         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                                5.4.2-16
         October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


March 12-15, 1993 (“Superstorm of 1993,” “Storm of the Century” or “Great Storm of 1993”)
(FEMA EM 3107): This storm was identified as both a Nor’Easter and a blizzard by many sources;
therefore, this event is also discussed in Section 5.4.1. Nor’Easter. It was a massive storm complex,
affecting at least 26 states and much of eastern Canada (Figure 5.4.2-9). The March 1993 storm is listed
among the NOAA Top Billion Dollar Weather Disasters (Miller, 1995-2007), reportedly causing a total of
$6.6 billion in damages along the eastern coast of the U.S. and resulting in over 270 fatalities (23 fatalities
in New York State) (Lott, 1993). According to NYS HMP and NYSEMO, this blizzard resulted in total
eligible damages of approximately $8.5 million throughout New York State (NYSDPC, 2008; NYSEMO,
2006).

Figure 5.4.2-9. “Storm of the Century” – March 12-15, 1993




Source: NOAA, Date Unknown
Note: METEOSAT Infrared Satellite Photo of the March 1993 "Storm of the Century"

Achieving a NESIS rating of 12.52, the "Storm Of The Century" ranks as an ‘Extreme’ snow event. With
a total area impacting, at peak, from Maine to Florida, a final total 5 to 50 inches of snowfall, and
hurricane force winds, this storm ground most of the Eastern seaboard to a halt for days (Figure 5.4.2-10).

Figure 5.4.2-10. “Storm of the Century” NESIS Category 5 Storm




Source: Kocin and Uccellini, 2004



         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                    5.4.2-17
         October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


In Suffolk County, total snowfall accumulations for were between 10 and 20 inches (Kocin and Uccellini,
2004). Damage on Fire Island was extensive. The New York Times reported that 12,000 homes sustained
storm damages, including houses on Fire Island. The storms were so powerful that they scoured from 70
to 100 feet of beach away, almost the entire length of the island. Dunes were reduced to 0 to 8 feet in
height in most places (from a previous 15 to 25-foot height) (Ocean Beach and Fire Island, 2002).
According to a Patchogue HMP, hundreds of roof collapses occurred in the northeast due to the weight of
the heavy wet snow during this storm. Over 3 million customers were without electrical power in the
region due to fallen trees and high winds. At least 18 homes fell into the sea on Long Island due to the
pounding surf. Through 2005, this storm was the 4th costliest storm in U.S. history (Patchogue Village,
2006). Monetary losses were not documented in the materials available for review for Suffolk County.

This storm resulted in a statewide FEMA Emergency Declaration (FEMA EM 3107) on March 17, 1993.
Through this declaration, all counties were declared eligible for federal and State disaster public
assistance funds (NYSEMO, 2006; FEMA, 2008). Disaster aid for Suffolk County was not available in
the materials reviewed to develop this plan.

January 6-8, 1996 (“Blizzard of ‘96”) (FEMA DR 1083): This event resulted in a FEMA DR for New
York State, including Suffolk County, identified as DR 1083. This event was responsible for over 100
deaths and brought much of the east-northeastern U.S. to a complete halt. Schools, offices, and airports
were closed for several days in some areas as roads were impassable. This event resulted in $4.2 million
in federal and state disaster funds being issued to 150 municipalities in seven counties of New York State,
including Suffolk County. Monetary losses were not documented in the materials available for review for
Suffolk County; however, on Long Island it was the worst snowstorm since the Blizzard of 1978 in terms
of snow, wind, and disruption of travel.

In Suffolk County, three men died from heart attacks while shoveling snow during this event. Eighteen
people in the tri-state area suffered from "partial" carbon monoxide poisoning in their stranded cars. A
State of Emergency was declared for southeastern New York State during the height of the storm. Minor
to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion occurred along the south and north shores of Long Island.
Just after high tide, up to 2 feet of water flooded downtown Ocean Beach where 150 families live.
Extensive flooding was also reported in Atlantique, making driving down the main Fire Island (NWS,
1996).

According to a New York Times News Article, the Blizzard of '96 brought Long Island to a standstill.
The passenger airports were shut and all schools on Long Island were closed. Post offices were closed
and mail was not delivered for a short period of time. Most bus routes were canceled and the Long Island
Rail Road service suspended. Several days after the storm, the railroad had restored extremely limited
service. In some low-lying coastal areas of Suffolk County, the water rose three to five feet above normal
levels. Hard-hit areas included West Hampton Dunes, which lost 700 feet of roadways; Gilgo Beach,
where 50 to 75 feet of sand washed away, and Fire Island (Davis Park and Fire Island Pines), where a 50-
year-old casino bar and restaurant and several houses washed out to sea (Saslow, 1996; NWS, 1996).
Achieving a NESIS rating of 11.54, the "Blizzard of ‘96" falls within the Extreme snow event category
(Figures 5.4.2-11 through 5.4.2-13).




        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                  5.4.2-18
        October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-11. “Blizzard of “96” NESIS Category 5 Storm




Source: Kocin and Uccellini, 2004

Figure 5.4.2-12. “Blizzard of ‘96” – Smithtown, New York




Source: Northshore Wx, 1996




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                5.4.2-19
         October 2008
                                 SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-13. Blizzard of ’96 Newsday Article




Source: Long Island Hurricane History, Date Unknown
Caption: “Worst Storm in 49 Years Shuts the Island”

Figure 5.4.2-14. Blizzard of ’96 Snowfall Totals




Source: NCDC, 1996
Note: Suffolk County received between 12 and 36 inches of snow from this event.




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York               5.4.2-20
         October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


March 4-7, 2001: A complex and slow-moving coastal storm affected much of southeast New York and
Long Island from March 4th through March 7th. This storm was accompanied by a mixture of snow, sleet,
freezing rain and rain through the early portion of the event, and mainly heavy snow for the remainder of
the event. Snowfall rates of two to three inches per hour for at least 3 hours were common across most of
Suffolk County (NCDC, 2008). Monetary losses were not documented in the materials available for
review for Suffolk County.

Specific snow totals throughout Suffolk County include:

    •   East Setauket              16.0                              •   Sag Harbor             11.0
    •   Huntington                 16.0                              •   Middle Island          10.5
    •   Centereach                 15.6                              •   Setauket               10.5
    •   Ridge                      15.0                              •   Mattituck              10.1
    •   NWS Upton                  14.2                              •   East Hampton Airport   10.0
    •   Selden                     14.0                              •   Easy Quogue            10.0
    •   Shoreham                   14.0                              •   Rocky Point            10.0
    •   Port Jefferson Station     13.3                              •   Farmingville           9.5
    •   Riverhead                  13.2                              •   Lake Grove              9.0
    •   Manorville                 13.0                              •   Port Jefferson          9.0
    •   Miller Place               13.0                              •   Holbrook               8.5
    •   Mount Sinai                13.0                              •   Islip Airport           8.0
    •   Wading River               13.0                              •   Quogue                 8.0
    •   East Yaphank               12.6                              •   Dix Hill                7.8
    •   St. James                  12.5                              •   Centerport             7.3
    •   Aquebogue                  12.2                              •   Orient Point            7.0
    •   Plum Island                12.0                              •   Montauk Point           5.6
    •   Westhampton                12.0                              •   Melville                5.0
    •   Ronkonkoma                 11.0                                  (NWS, 2001).


January 7, 2002 (Long Island “Sound Effect”): A "Sound Effect" is an infrequently used term in local
meteorology that best describes the subtle (and sometimes not as subtle) contribution that the Long Island
Sound makes to our annual snowfall. The Sound does contribute to the amount of snowfall on Long
Island, with the effect being most pronounced along the north shore (North Shore Wx, Date Unknown).

During the evening of January 7, 2002, a significant local enhancement of snowfall near the Long Island
Sound occurred, created by a Long Island “Sound Effect”. That evening, an upper level disturbance
caused some very light snows over Long Island, with most accumulations being a half inch or less. Along
the immediate north shore, a stationary band of snow formed and persisted for a few hours dropping up to
3 inches of snow in spots between Huntington and Stony Brook.

February 17-18, 2003 (“President’s Day Storm”) (FEMA EM 3184): This event resulted in an FEMA
EM for New York State, including Suffolk County, identified as EM 3184. Snow accumulations
throughout New York State ranged between one and 24 inches (Figure 5.4.2-15). According to the
NOAA-NCDC Storm Query, this event resulted in $20 million in property damages throughout New


        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                     5.4.2-21
        October 2008
                                    SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


York State, including Suffolk County. Impacts and monetary losses were not documented in the
materials available for review for Suffolk County. Achieving a NESIS rating of 8.91, this event was
ranked as a Crippling storm (Figure 5.4.2-16).

Figure 5.4.2-15. Blizzard February 17-18, 2003 (FEMA EM 3184) “President's Day Storm”




Source: NCDC, 2003

Figure 5.4.2-16. Blizzard February 17-18, 2003 NESIS Category 4 Storm




Source: Kocin and Uccellini, 2004

Specific snow totals throughout Suffolk County include:

    •     Bohemia                     24.0                            •   East Setauket   22.0
    •     Bridgehampton               24.0                            •   North Babylon   22.0

         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                              5.4.2-22
         October 2008
                                 SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


    •     West Islip                  21.5                             •    Dix Hills         17.1
    •     Upton                       21.1                             •    Centerport        17.0
    •     Patchogue                   21.0                             •    Bellport          16.0
    •     Port Jefferson              21.0                             •    Lake Ronkonkoma   16.0
    •     Setauket                    20.5                             •    Wading River      16.0
    •     Centereach                  20.1                             •    Rocky Point       15.0
    •     Port Jefferson Station 20.0                                  •    Southold          15.0
    •     East Hampton           19.8                                  •    East Quogue       15.0
    •     Baiting Hollow              19.5                             •     Manorville       14.0
    •     St James                    18.6                             •     Islip            14.0
    •     Smithtown                   18.5                                  (NWS, 2003).


December 6-7, 2003: A powerful two-day storm impacted the Northeast, burying parts of the region in
more than a foot of snow. This event was the biggest on record for early December in New York State.
Snow accumulations during this event on central Long Island reached over 18 inches. Two hundred
customers of the Long Island Power Authority lost power during this event with most of them in the
Riverhead area of Suffolk County (McFadden, 2003).

January 27-28, 2004: Widespread snowfall of a foot or more on top of approximately 4 inches of
existing icy snowpack led to some of the greatest snow depths of the 2004 season throughout Long Island
(Northshore Wx, 2004). Figure 5.4.2-17 identified snow conditions through the Smithtown area after this
event.

Figure 5.4.2-17. January 27-28, 2004 Snowstorm (Near Smithtown area)




Source: Northshore Wx, 2004
Note: Images were taken in and around the Smithtown area on January 28, 2004.

Specific snow totals throughout Suffolk County include:

    •    Dix Hills                    14.6                             •    East Northport    11.2
    •    Smithtown                    13.5                             •    West Babylon      11.0
    •    Centerport                   11.5                             •    Centereach        10.7
    •    Islip                        11.5                             •    North Babylon     10.5
    •    West Babylon                 11.3                             •    West Islip        10.1
    •    Saint James                  11.2                             •    Lake Ronkonkoma   10.0

         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                  5.4.2-23
         October 2008
                                   SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


    •    Port Jefferson Station        10.0                               •    East Setauket                 6.4
    •    Farmingdale                   9.5                                •    East Quogue                   6.0
    •    Shoreham                      9.5                                •    Baiting Hollow                5.7
    •    Sayville                      9.0                                •    East Hampton                  5.0
    •    Upton                         8.1                                •    Sag Harbor                    4.5
    •    Riverhead                     8.0                                •    Southampton                   4.1
    •    Rocky Point                   7.5                                     (NWS, 2004).
    •    Manorville                    7.5

February 1, 2004: An unusual amount of sea ice was found lining the edges of Long Island Sound in
the Smithtown Bay area. Sea Ice is formed from ocean water that freezes. Because the ocean consists of
saltwater, the freezing temperature of ocean water is lower than that for fresh water, which is 0 degrees
Celsius (°C). Seawater freezes at about minus 1.8 °C. Figure 5.4.2-18 identifies images that were taken
on February 1, 2004 at various locations around Short Beach, which is located on the east side of the
mouth of the Nissequogue River. Included are views of the Sound, the beach itself, and several images
taken on the river side of the Smithtown Park at Short Beach.

Figure 5.4.2-18. Sea Ice on Long Island Sound on February 1, 2004 (Smithtown Bay area around Short Beach)




Source: North Shore Wx, 2004
Note: Images were taken on February 1, 2004 at various locations around Short Beach, which is located on the east side of the
mouth of the Nissequogue River. Included are views of the Sound, the beach itself, and several images taken on the river side of
the Smithtown park at Short Beach.

January 22-23, 2005: According to the Upton NWS forecast office, snow amounts from this event
ranged from 10.4 to 21 inches in Suffolk County (Figure 5.4.2-19). Baiting Hollow, Lake Ronkonkoma,
Bridgehampton and Mount Sinai received the most. Maximum wind speeds ranged between 36 and 64
mph. Shinnecock Inlet and Orient Point received the most powerful wind speeds. During the storm, a
coastal front formed and oscillated over Long Island for a time. Temperatures steadily rose from the
lower or middle teens at the beginning of the storm to near freezing for a time Saturday evening. Over the
south shore of Suffolk County, temperatures rose to just above freezing for a few hours as heavy snow
was falling, causing the snow to become wet and cling to trees and power lines. The weight of the snow
combined with increasing winds caused numerous trees and power lines to be downed and resulted in
scattered power outages. As the developing coastal low rapidly intensified, the colder air which had
retreated only a few miles to the north was quickly drawn back over the island and temperatures
plummeted back into the teens, turning the snowfall back into a fine powder (North Shore Wx, 2005).


         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                                      5.4.2-24
         October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM



Figure 5.4.2-19. January 22-23, 2005 Snow Accumulations throughout Long Island, New York




Source: North Shore Wx, 2005

Specific snow totals throughout Suffolk County include:

    •    Baiting Hollow             19.5                              •   Islip            15.1
    •    Lake Ronkomkoma            19.5                              •   Lindehurst       14.8
    •    Bridgehampton              19.0                              •   Smithtown        14.0
    •    Mount Sinai                19.0                              •   Copiague         13.8
    •    Wading River               18.5                              •   Riverhead        13.8
    •    Moriches                   18.2                              •   Commack          13.5
    •    East Hampton               17.8                              •   Hampton Bay      13.0
    •    Bohemia                    17.5                              •   Mattituck        13.0
    •    Upton                      17.5                              •   Rocky Point      13.0
    •    Middle Island              17.0                              •   Sag Harbor       13.0
    •    Setauket                   16.1                              •   North Babylon    12.0
    •    West Islip                 16.0                              •   Northport        12.0
    •    Moriches                   15.4                              •   Shirley          10.4
    •    Saint James                15.3                                  (NWS, 2005).

February 11-12, 2006: Heavy snowfall and strong winds hit the New York State region on February 12,
2006. According to the Upton NWS forecast office, snow amounts ranging from 9.0 to 20.0 inches in
Suffolk County. Islip, Medford, Babylon (Figure 5.4.2-20) and Wading River reportedly received the
most. Maximum wind speeds ranged between 36 and 64 mph (NWS, Date Unknown). This February
2006 snowstorm (see above) inundated the Northeast, closing regional airports, canceling hundreds of
flights, and paralyzing normal traffic for city residents who took to the snow-caked streets in snowshoes
and skis. The winter storm’s high winds, icy snow, thunder and lightning hit much of the mid-Atlantic
and New England region. A fairly large area was impacted, with snow accumulations of more than 20
inches in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. About 16 to 24 inches were expected throughout the
New York State region, according to weather forecasters. The NWS described the weather conditions as
“a major snowstorm” with winds up to 50 mph (New York Times, 2006). Achieving a NESIS rating of
4.00, this event falls within the Major category (Figure 5.4.2-21).


         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                               5.4.2-25
         October 2008
                                 SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-20. February 12-13, 2006 Snowstorm – Babylon, New York




Source: Long Island Hurricane History, 2007

Figure 5.4.2-21. February 12-13, 2006 NESIS Category 3 Storm




Source: Enloe, 2007

Specific snow totals throughout Suffolk County include:

    •    Islip                       20.0                             •   Miller Place      14.8
    •    Medford                     19.1                             •   Center Moriches   14.3
    •    Wading River                17.9                             •   Lake Ronkonkoma   14.0
    •    Bellport                    17.0                             •   North Patchogue   14.0
    •    Orient                      17.0                             •   Upton             13.9
    •    East Northport              15.2                             •   Baiting Hollow    13.7
    •    Commack                     15.0                             •   Lindenhurst       13.5
    •    Port Jefferson              15.0                             •   Centerport        13.4

         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                5.4.2-26
         October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


    •    Smithtown                  13.3                              •   Southold      9.5
    •    Hauppauge                  13.2                              •   Southampton   9.2
    •    North Babylon              12.3                              •   Sag Harbor    9.0 (NWS,
    •    Shirley                    11.7                                  2006).
    •    Dix Hills                  10.7

Figures 5.4.2-22, 5.4.2-23, 5.4.2-24 and 5.4.2-25 indicate the seasonal snow accumulations throughout
Long Island between 2003 and 2007. Based on these findings, the 2004-2005 winter season experienced
the most snowfall averaging around 70-75 inches of snow along the north shore of Suffolk County, within
the vicinity of Riverhead and Southold Townships.

Figure 5.4.2-22. Regional Snowfall Totals for the Winter of 2003-2004




Source: North Shore Wx, 2008




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                             5.4.2-27
         October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-23. Regional Snowfall Totals for the Winter of 2004-2005




Source: North Shore Wx, 2008

Figure 5.4.2-24. Regional Snowfall Totals for the Winter of 2005-2006




Source: North Shore Wx, 2008




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York            5.4.2-28
         October 2008
                                SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


Figure 5.4.2-25. Regional Snowfall Totals for the Winter of 2006-2007




Source: North Shore Wx, 2008

Probability of Future Events

In Section 5.3, the identified hazards of concern for the County were ranked. The NYS HMP includes a
similar ranking process for hazards that affect the State. The probability of occurrence, or likelihood of
the event, is one parameter used in this ranking process. Based on historical records and input from the
Planning Committee, the probability of occurrence for severe winter storms in the County is considered
high [hazard event that occurs more frequently than once in 10 years (>10-1/yr)]. It is estimated that
Suffolk County and all of its jurisdictions will continue to experience severe winter storms annually that
may induce secondary hazards such as utility failure, transportation accidents, and erosion along the north
and south shorelines.




         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                 5.4.2-29
         October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

To understand risk, a community must evaluate what assets are exposed or vulnerable in the identified
hazard area. For severe winter storms, the entire County has been identified as the hazard area.
Therefore, all assets in Suffolk County (population, structures, critical facilities and lifelines), as
described in the County Profile section, are vulnerable to a severe winter storm. The following text
evaluates and estimates the potential impact of severe winter storms on Suffolk County including:

•   Overview of vulnerability
•   Data and methodology used for the evaluation
•   Impact, including: (1) impact on life, safety and health of Suffolk County residents, (2) general
    building stock, (3) critical facilities, (4) economy and (5) future growth and development
•   Further data collections that will assist understanding of this hazard over time
•   Overall vulnerability conclusion

Overview of Vulnerability

Severe winter storms are of significant concern to Suffolk County because of the frequency and
magnitude of these events in the region, the direct and indirect costs associated with these events, delays
caused by the storms, impacts on the people and facilities of the region related to snow and ice removal,
health problems, cascade effects such as utility failure (power outages), traffic accidents, and stress on
community resources.

Data and Methodology

FEMA, national weather databases and local resources were used to collect and analyze severe winter
storm impacts on the County. Default HAZUS-MH data was used to support an evaluation of assets
exposed to this hazard and the potential impacts associated with this hazard.

Impact on Life, Health and Safety

For the purposes of this HMP, the entire population (1,419,369 people) in the County is exposed to severe
winter storm events (U.S. Census, 2000). Snow accumulation and frozen/slippery road surfaces increase
the frequency and impact of traffic accidents for the general population, resulting in personal injuries.
Refer to Table 4-3 in the County Profile for population statistics for Suffolk County. The elderly are
considered most susceptible to the severe winter storm hazard due to their increased risk of injuries and
death from falls and overexertion and/or hypothermia from attempts to clear snow. In addition, severe
winter storm events can reduce the ability of these populations to access emergency services.

Extreme cold temperatures are associated with severe winter storms. The high cost of fuel to heat
residential homes can create a financial strain on populations with low or fixed incomes (a portion of
which includes the elderly population). In addition, low income residents may not have access to housing
or their housing may be less able to withstand cold temperatures (e.g., homes with poor insulation and
heating supply). Refer to Section 4, County Profile, for figures that show the distribution of persons over
the age of 65 and low income populations in Suffolk County.

Suffolk County recognizes it has a large special needs population and is committed to providing the best
possible assistance to these citizens when an emergency is imminent. The Suffolk County Comprehensive
Emergency Management Plan outlines the Suffolk County Joint Emergency Evacuation Program (JEEP).

        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                  5.4.2-30
        October 2008
                                   SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


JEEP provides emergency evacuation assistance (shelter and transportation) to citizens that are
particularly at risk during emergency situations.

Impact on General Building Stock

The entire inventory in Suffolk County is vulnerable to a severe winter storm. However, historic data and
current modeling tools are not considered adequate to estimate specific losses that are a potential for this
hazard. As an alternate approach, this plan considers percentage damages that could result from severe
winter storm conditions. Table 5.4.2-5 identifies the exposed buildings and replacement value in Suffolk
County and losses that would result from 1, 5, and 10 percent damage to this inventory as a result of a
severe winter storm, using HAZUS-MH MR3 default data. Given professional knowledge and
information available, the potential losses for this hazard are considered to be overestimated; hence,
conservative estimates for losses associated with severe winter storms.

Table 5.4.2-5. Inventory of General Building Stock Exposure for Suffolk County
    Building
   Occupancy           Number of                               1% Damage           5% Damage           10% Damage
     Class             Buildings           Exposure           Loss Estimate       Loss Estimate        Loss Estimate
   Residential          509,759         $118,857,088,000      $1,188,570,880      $5,942,854,400      $11,885,708,800
   Commercial             34,500         $27,870,440,000       $278,704,400       $1,393,522,000      $2,787,044,000
    Industrial            11,407         $6,975,054,000         $69,750,540        $348,752,700        $697,505,400
   Agricultural           2,560           $646,968,000           $6,469,680        $32,348,400         $64,696,800
    Religious             1,846          $1,627,198,000         $16,271,980        $81,359,900         $162,719,800
   Government              645            $742,681,000           $7,426,810        $37,134,050         $74,268,100
   Educational             1,061            $1,982,498,000          $19,824,980          $99,124,900          $198,249,800
       Total             561,778          $158,701,927,000 $1,587,019,270 $7,935,096,350 $15,870,192,700
Source: HAZUS-MH MR3, 2007. The replacement building values shown are building structure only. For the severe storm
hazard, damage will generally impact structures such as the roof and building frame (rather than building content).

There are certain limitations to using HAZUS-MH. This plan utilized HAZUS-MH default data to
perform a HAZUS Level 1 analysis. HAZUS-MH is only intended to provide an estimation of building
replacement value, using estimates for typical buildings in a given census block. It is only as current
and/or accurate as the US Census 2000 data, and it does not reflect specific local building conditions,
such as a higher percentage of luxury structures, higher local costs to procure and transport building
materials through New York City, and the recent dramatic worldwide increases in the cost of building
construction materials and products and/or services dependent upon the price of petroleum. Plan
participants have indicated the values presented herein significantly underestimate the actual Replacement
Cost Values (RCV) in Suffolk County.

Manufactured (mobile) homes are particularly vulnerable to severe winter storms. The 2000 U.S. Census
indicates that there are 5,374 mobile homes in Suffolk County. Table 5.4.2-6 estimates losses to this
building stock estimate if 5% and 10% damage accrues to these homes.

Table 5.4.2-6. Manufactured (Mobile) Homes Exposed in Suffolk County and Potential Severe Winter Storm
Losses
                 Total           Total #      % of Total        Total Value
                                                                                     5% Damage           10% Damage
   Area       Residential Manufactured Residential            Manufactured
                                                                                    Loss Estimate Loss Estimate
              Structures       Homes (1)      Structures        Homes (2)
   County      509,759            5,374            1.1         $139,724,000           $6,986,200          $13,972,400
Source: US Census Bureau (2000); HAZUS-MH MR3, 2007
Notes: (1) US Census. (2) Total number of manufactured homes multiplied by the average value of a mobile home. According
to HAZUS-MH, for Suffolk County, the average value of a manufactured home is estimated to be $26,000. $ M = Million

          DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                              5.4.2-31
          October 2008
                                   SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


dollars. The replacement building values shown do not include building contents. Generally, for the severe winter storm hazard,
the structural components of buildings are anticipated to be most impacted; therefore, contents were not evaluated for this hazard
category.

A specific area that is vulnerable to the severe winter storm hazard is the floodplain. Severe winter storms
can cause flooding through blockage of streams or through snow melt. At risk residential infrastructure
are presented in the presentation for the flood hazard. Generally, losses resulting from flooding
associated with severe winter storms should be less than that associated with a 100-year flood. Please
refer to the flood profile (Section 5.4.9). In addition, coastal areas are at high risk during winter storm
events that involve high winds. Please refer to the Nor’Easter and/or severe storm profiles for losses
resulting from wind (Sections 5.4.1 and 5.4.3, respectively).

Impact on Critical Facilities

HAZUS-MH MR2 estimates the default replacement value for each police station is $1,652,000 and
fire/EMS facility as $708,000. Additionally, HAZUS-MH estimates the replacement value for hospitals
in the County is $8 - $16 Million each. These structures are largely constructed of concrete; therefore,
they should only suffer minimal structural damage from severe winter storm events. Because power
interruption can occur, backup power is recommended for critical facilities and infrastructure; although
this information is still being compiled, it appears that many such facilities have back-up power supplies.
Infrastructure at risk for this hazard includes roadways that could be damaged due to the application of
salt and intermittent freezing and warming conditions that can damage roads over time. Severe snowfall
requires infrastructure to clear roadways, alert citizens to dangerous conditions, and following the winter
requires resources for road maintenance and repair.

Impact on Economy

The cost of snow and ice removal and repair of roads from the freeze/thaw process can drain local
financial resources. The Suffolk County Department of Public Works clears County roads of snow and
ice, while the State Highway Department is responsible for State highways and Town Highway
Departments are responsible for local roads (Suffolk County Public Works, 2007).

Severe winter storms that impact Suffolk County generally impact Nassau County and New York City as
well. The loss of power and closure of roads and/or mass transportation across the region due to the
severe weather prevents the large Suffolk County commuter population from traveling to work or school.
According to the U.S. Census, nearly 600,000 Suffolk County residents drive and more than 45,000
Suffolk County residents rely on public transportation to commute to work. Greater than 26 percent of
Suffolk County work outside of the County, with a majority commuting to Nassau County and New York
City (Hevesi and Bleiwas, 2006).

Future Growth and Development

As discussed in Section 4, areas targeted for future growth and development have been identified across
the County. Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the severe winter storm hazard
because the entire planning area is exposed and vulnerable.

Additional Data and Next Steps

Based on currently available data, modeling of future losses would only be possible for total losses and
would have a large margin of uncertainty given the currently available data. However, the exposure
assessment discussed above identifies vulnerable populations and infrastructure of particular concern for

         DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                                      5.4.2-32
         October 2008
                               SECTION 5.4.2: RISK ASSESSMENT – SEVERE WINTER STORM


this hazard. Conservative estimates of potential losses based on “percent of damage” assumptions also
are provided in the tables in this section as a guide for planning mitigation options. In addition, past
events indicate that significant damages may occur in the future including: damage to structures, impacts
on human health, and costs in terms of service disruptions, accidents, and damage to infrastructure.

Additional information regarding localized concerns, past impacts and dollar losses specific to the County
can collected and analyzed to help estimate future losses to inventory. This methodology is based on
FEMA’s How to Series (FEMA 386-2), Understanding Your Risks, Identifying and Estimating Losses
(FEMA, 2001) and FEMA’s Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment (FEMA 433) (FEMA, 2004).

Overall Vulnerability Assessment

Severe winter storms are common in the study area, often causing significant impacts and losses to the
County and roads, structures, facilities, utilities, and population. The overall hazard ranking determined
for this Plan for the severe winter storm hazard is high, with a frequent probability occurrence [hazard
event that occurs more frequently than once in 10 years (>10-1/yr)]. Because the area is frequently
exposed to this event, it is prepared to respond. Existing and future mitigation efforts should continue to
be developed and employed that will enable the study area to be prepared for these events when they
occur. The cascade effects of severe winter storms include utility losses and transportation accidents and
flooding. Losses associated with the flood hazard are discussed earlier in this section; damages associated
with high winds that can occur concurrently with snow storms are discussed in the Severe Storm Hazard
profile. Particular areas of vulnerability include low-income and elderly populations, mobile homes, and
infrastructure such as roadways and utilities that can be damaged by such storms and the low-lying areas
that can be impacted by flooding related to rapid snow melt. Coastal areas also have significant risk if
snow storms are associated with strong winds and seas.




        DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Suffolk County, New York                                  5.4.2-33
        October 2008

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Stats:
views:42
posted:5/7/2011
language:English
pages:33