Designations for the 2006 PM2.5 Standards: Evaluating the Nine Factors in Setting Nonattainment Area Boundaries
Part 1 – Overview
Rich Damberg, Tom Rosendahl
EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards June 21, 2007
Statutory Requirement
• “Nonattainment area” is defined in section 107 of the Clean Air Act as:
“…any area that does not meet (or that contributes to ambient air quality in a nearby area that does not meet) the national primary or secondary ambient air quality standard for the pollutant.”
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Fine Particle Concentrations are Affected by Nearby Sources and Transported Emissions
Analytical Challenge in the Designations Process: - Identifying the nearby areas and sources that contribute to PM2.5 violations
The 9 Designation Factors
To Help Determine Nearby Area of Influence for 24-hr NAAQS Violations
Population and Urbanization Emissions
Traffic & Commuting
Air Quality
Non Attainment Boundaries
Growth
Meteorology Political and Other Boundaries
Current Emission Controls
Topography
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Overall Approach
• All factors are taken into consideration in making nonattainment decisions
– Decisions based on the weight of evidence of the nine technical factors.
• No bright lines are used for evaluating factors across all areas. Counties in a metro area are evaluated in relative terms, on a case-specific basis. • Designations are to be based on best available current data for air quality, emissions, other factors • In general, if a county in a metro area has a violating monitor, designate the full county.
– Possible exceptions due to topography, size of county
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Overall Approach (cont.)
• Nonattainment problems are caused by a combination of regional and local emissions
– For purpose of designations, focus evaluation on counties within the metro area and counties adjacent to the metro area.
• Emissions: direct PM2.5 (carbon and crustal material), SO2, NOx, VOC, ammonia • “Speciation monitoring” techniques can be used to help identify chemical components of PM2.5 mass as well as sources of emissions • Goal is to maintain national consistency and fairness in decision making.
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Sources of Information
• EPA Air Quality System - national PM2.5 monitoring network - Federal Reference Method monitors - Speciation Trends Network, IMPROVE • 2002 National Emissions Inventory (version 3) - Direct carbon and crustal emissions are estimated from total PM2.5 emissions with the SMOKE emissions processor • 2000 US Census population data and population growth data • 2000 US Census, Journey to Work database • Vehicle miles traveled – Estimates obtained from FHWA Highway Performance Modeling System • NOAA weather and meteorological data • NOAA HYSPLIT back trajectory model • OMB 2003 metro area definitions • USGS topographic information • Satellite imagery – Google Earth
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Population / Degree of Urbanization
• What type of area is it? – Large metro area – Moderate-sized city – Small town / township • How many counties make up the metro area?
– Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and Consolidated Statistical Area (CSA)
Population and Urbanization Emissions
Traffic & Commuting
Air Quality
Non Attainment Boundaries
Growth
Meteorology Political and Other Boundaries
Current Emission Controls
Topography
• How do the counties in the area compare in terms of population density? • Is the area affected by urban sprawl?
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San Jose – Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metro Area Population 1.7 million
Shoshone County, Idaho – City of Pinehurst Population 13,000
Milwaukee, Wisconsin Population 1.5 million 39 ug/m3
Satellite imagery can help illustrate the degree of urbanization and can help identify important emissions sources in the vicinity of the violating monitor(s)
Population Density
Washington, DC
Carroll Baltimore
Washington
Frederick Baltimore City Kent
eley Howard Queen Anne's Jefferson Montgomery Ca Anne Arundel City Clarke Loudoun
District of Columbia Arlington Prince George's Falls Church City Fairfax City Alexandria City Fairfax n Manassas Park City Manassas City Prince William Calvert Fauquier ppahannock Charles
Talbot
Dorche
25 People Per Dot
Population Density
Atlanta, GA
County Pop. Density
K-persons per Sq. Mile 0.12 to 2.46 0.08 to 0.12 0.06 to 0.08 0.05 to 0.06 0.01 to 0.05 (58) (23) (16) (23) (49)
Growth Rates
• What has been the population growth rate in the area in recent years? • Which counties have the highest rates?
– The counties with highest population density may differ from those with the highest growth rates.
• Is growth expected to continue?
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Population Growth Rates
Traffic and Commuting Patterns
2K
2K
MilwaukeeRacineWaukesha, WI CBSA
Dodge
- Is there a high degree of
2K
3K
5K
Washington
2K
3K
Ozaukee
15 K
4K K
commuting in the metro area? - Consider inclusion of counties with significant level of commuting to counties within the city or metro area
7K
1K
1K
14
3 K
Jefferson
1K
Waukesha
5K 1K
Milwauke
57 K 61 K
Milwaukee
1K 3K
5K 13 K
4 K 1 K
2 K
1K
Racine
Walworth
2K 2K
Percentage of workers who commute to other counties in the metro area Source: 2000 US Census, Journey to Work data
2K 2K
7K 6K
Kenosha
Jurisdictional and Other Boundaries • County and metropolitan area boundaries • Including multi-state areas • Metropolitan planning organizations • Existing nonattainment area boundaries • Air pollution control districts • Tribal lands
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Kootenai Reser... Kootenai Reser... Colville Reser... Colville Reser... Kalispel Reser... Kalispel Reser... Blackfeet Rese... Blackfeet Rese...
Spokane Reserv... Spokane Reserv...
Coeur D'Alene ... Coeur D'Alene ... Flathead Reser... Flathead Reser... Missoula Metro
Nez Perce Rese... Nez Perce Rese... Umatilla Reser... Umatilla Reser...
Consideration of Tribal Lands
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Huntington-Ashland Multi-State Area
16.2 16.2 Warren Clinton Fayette Hocking Ross
OHIO
Vinton Meigs Jackson
12.5 12.5 Athens
Washington 16.0 16.0 Wood Wirt Calho Pleasan Pleasan
Highland Pike Clermont pbell Brown Adams dleton Bracken Scioto
Ritchie
17.2 17.2 Lawrence
Gallia
Jackson Jackson Mason
WEST VIRGINIA
Roane Clay Kanawha
Robertson Robertson arrison Nicholas Bourbon
Mason
Lewis
Greenup Carter
15.8 15.8 15.0 15.0 Boyd
Putnam 16.6 16.6 Cabell 17.1 17.1
Fleming
Bath Montgomery Montgomery
12.2 12.2 Rowan Elliott Lawrence Wayne Lincoln Fayette Boone Morgan Johnson Johnson Magoffin Lee Martin Logan Mingo Wyoming Floyd Perry 13.6 13.6 Knott Buchanan T ll Pike 13.8 13.8 McDowell Mercer 12.5 12.5 Raleigh 13.1 13.1
Clark Powell 13.5 13.5 Madison Madison Estill
Menifee Wolfe
KENTUCKY
Breathitt
Jackson ckcastle ckcastle
Owsley
Clay L l
Topography / Geography • Are there topographic features that defines or affects the contributing source region?
– Examples: high mountains, narrow valley
• Primarily a western issue
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Elkhart, Indiana Population 183,000 36 ug/m3
Kinda flat … Topography is not much of an issue here.
Topography / Geography - Example: Libby, Montana
Washington
Lincoln, County
Libby, M NA A T rea
Idaho
Montana
Shoshone County, Idaho – City of Pinehurst
Small town in large county
Shoshone County, Idaho – City of Pinehurst
Logan, Utah Population 103,000 65 ug/m3
Meteorology Possible tools: - Pollution roses based on hourly wind direction data and 24-hour PM2.5 data - Back trajectories for analysis of high days
Emissions Data
• Where are important nearby emissions sources located? • What are emissions of PM2.5 and precursors by county? • Are certain sources key contributors during specific seasons?
– Speciation data provides important information – High nitrate and carbon in winter, sulfate in summer
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Birmingham, AL Local Emissions Sources
SOUTHERN NATURAL GAS CORP. 0, 0, 585, 34 S INDUSTRIES CORPORATION - COKE/UTILITIES/BTF 093, 662, 99 RATION - MINERAL WOOL PLANT BIRMINGHAM STEEL CORPORATION 127, 17, 243, 187 U. S. PIPE & FOUNDRY COMPANY INC.(NO. B'HAM PL 389, 16, 99, 533 MCWANE CAST IRON PIPE CO. 491, 31, 100, 439 SMI STEEL, INC. 142, 35, 161, 40 BERMAN BROTHERS IRON & METAL CO., IN 132, 26, 37, 7 ALABAMA POWER COMPANY (POWELL AVENUE STEAM PLANT 3, 339, 219, 2 DRUMMOND COMPANY, INC. 1068, 2659, 863, 642
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ON PIPE COMPANY
ALABAMA METAL INDUSTRIES CORPORATION (AMICO) 0, 0, 1, 141 16.7 U.S. STEEL - FAIRFIELD WORKS PIPE MILL 154, 0, 100, 143 STEEL - FAIRFIELD
Numbers represent tons of emissions of PM2.5, SO2, NOx, VOC
Birmingham, AL – 2001 Emissions
Next: - Conceptual model for PM2.5 24-hour concentrations -Analyses of PM2.5 Mass and Speciation Data for high days -Analyses combining air quality, meteorology, and emissions
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