Climate Change and Air Quality Interactions

Session 4 Overview Climate Change and Air Quality Interactions Dr. Alice Gilliland AMAD Peer Review January 27-29, 2009 Research Triangle Park, NC Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Environmental Issue • Increasing greenhouse gas levels since Industrial Revolution has caused increasing globally-averaged temperatures – Global warming contributes to changes in large-scale circulation, precipitation, and regional meteorological conditions • Air quality is known to be sensitive to meteorological conditions. How might changing climate conditions affect air quality (ozone, particulate matter)? – Ex: Climate-change induced temperature increases affect kinetics, planetary boundary layer heights, biogenic emissions … all of which drive air quality • Air quality management decisions presently assume current climate conditions (yet emission controls are implemented over several decades) • Additional uncertainty is introduced regarding efficacy of future emission controls under future climate conditions Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 1 Strategic Context • • EPA Global Change Research Program ORD Global Climate MYP • Long-Term Goal: Air quality managers and decision makers in EPA regional and program offices will use scientific information and models from EPA’s research and assessment program to evaluate and implement adaptation policies that protect air quality from the impacts of global change. Collaboration across ORD (NCEA, NCER, NERL, and NRMRL) • • The NERL/AMAD Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project was initiated in 2002 to support • • 2007 ORD interim assessment report on climate impacts on U.S. air quality 2012 ORD final assessment report on air quality and climate Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 2 Linking Global to Regional Climate and Air Quality Global Change Scenarios (tech change, population growth, economic activity levels…) Global Emissions Global Air Quality Global Meteorology Global • How might future climate change and climate variability affect air quality (O3 and PM2.5)? • How might changes in future emissions impact air quality with and without considering future climate? • How many areas will fail to attain air quality standards due to global change? Regional Change Scenarios Regional Regional Boundary Conditions Regional Meteorology Regional Emissions Regional Air Quality Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 3 Linking Global and Regional Scenarios: A Cross-ORD Collaboration • Beginning in 2002, NERL/AMAD had approximately 2 FTE’s contributing to this effort • NCER grants with Harvard and Carnegie Mellon to link with global modeling community • Regional climate downscaling by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (NCEA support) • NRMRL is providing future emission scenarios based on growth and technology changes for utility and mobile sectors. • NERL/AMAD’s role was focused on CMAQ results with and without future climate and emission scenarios Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 4 Poster 4.1: On the Linkage of Global and Regional Models to Assess Climate Change – Air Quality Interactions • Pilot modeling study of the sensitivity Summer of O3 to a future climate scenario • Results included in the ORD interim assessment report on air quality and climate • Based on evaluation results, regional Sept-Oct climate downscaling identified as a new research priority for AMAD Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (Future – Current) ≥95th% O3 5 Poster 4.2: Building a Regional Climate Program: Collaborations and Partnerships • During the pilot project described in Poster 2.1, collaborations have been established across ORD, Agencies, and academia • Synthesis manuscript comparing air quality modeling results from several NCER-funded studies • Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2 (CCSP SAP 3.2) on the contribution of short-lived pollutants to climate trends (NOAA and NASA) • Through interaction on CCSP SAP 3.2, new opportunities to partner with NASA and NOAA on regional climate downscaling Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 6 Poster 4.3: Current Research Developments: The Coupled WRF-CMAQ Modeling System • According to CCSP SAP 3.2, short- lived pollutants could contribute approximately 20% to the warming trend to 2050 • Having a shorter lifetime, control of short-lived pollutants could reduce the warming trend more quickly • The coupled WRF-CMAQ will have the ability to assess the radiative impacts of air pollutant controls • Provides consistency with the CMAQ modeling tools used by EPA and States for air quality management Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 7 Recent Changes in Landscape A Small AMAD Program on the Verge of Expansion • • • Massachusetts vs. EPA requirement to regulate greenhouse gases from tailpipes EPA Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) for regulating emissions of CO2 under Clean Air Act An omnibus Fiscal Year 2008 appropriations bill allocated new funds to EPA ORD Global Change Research Program • Stipulates that new resources be used to conduct research in support of Agency’s efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. • NERL/AMAD received approximately 1/3rd of omnibus funds to increase efforts in regional climate downscaling and future emission scenarios 8 Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Future Directions • CMAQ modeling of future air quality emission scenarios (Lieberman-Warner-Boxer, biofuels) • With and without future climate scenarios • O3 and PM2.5 impacts • Improved regional climate downscaling methods and scenarios – Support climate risk assessment for human health (e.g., heat waves, air quality, water availability and quality) and ecosystems (e.g., precipitation patterns, extremes, vegetation stress) – GCM simulations from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report stabilization scenarios – Range of scenarios (ensemble approach) • Development and application of advanced modeling tools for regional climate and air quality interaction Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 9 Session 4: Climate and Air Quality Interactions On the Linkage of Global and Regional Models to Assess Climate Change–Air Quality Interactions (Presenter: Ellen Cooter) Building a Regional Climate Program: Collaborations and Partnerships (Presenter: Alice Gilliland) Current Research Developments: The Coupled WRF-CMAQ Modeling System (Presenter: Rohit Mathur) Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 10