Middles & Sides by RajeevShah1

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									How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




       This is a brief guide on the advanced sports trading technique of Middles & Sides




INTRODUCTION

Middles (and Sides) are a                                  This compares with the average
particular type of low-risk trade                          arbitrage profit of around 3%
which takes advantage of
differences of opinion between                             Of course, your actual percentage
bookmakers over handicaps and/or                           return will depend on how actively
total scores                                               you trade – a trader who places
                                                           1000 middles over the year will
When A Middle is successful, both                          have significantly better success
sides of the trade win resulting in                        than a trader who places just 50 in
a double-payout. When a Side is                            the same period.
successful, one bet wins whilst the
other has its stake returned.                              Middles & Sides are generally
                                                           found in 2 types of market:
In both cases, the wins can be                             runlines (handicap match-bets)
significant compared to the low                            and total points markets.
risks involved.
                                                           [A special type of risk-free Middle
Although it is impossible to predict                       can also be found in soccer
the future, a professional middles                         markets using cross-market
trader can probably expect to                              trading techniques]
make an average of about 5% per
trade over the course of a year.

                              Sports Arbitrage World provides professional tools
                                for sports arbitrage traders around the world.
                                  Click here to try out our complete range of
                                       software, guides & videos for free
                                 Click here to contact our professional Trader
                                  Support Desk at any time for any type of
                                   assistance or guidance with your trading


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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




EXAMPLES

Example 1: Runline Middle



                                                Team A      Team B

           Bookie 1                           H’Cap +9      H’Cap -9
                                              Price 1.91   Price 1.91

           Bookie 2                           H’Cap +5      H’Cap -5
                                              Price 1.91   Price 1.91



A 4-point Middle exists between

Bookmaker 1’s [+9] on Team A and

Bookmaker 2’s [-5] on Team B



The table on the next page displays all of the possible outcomes for a
trader who invests a total of $500 ($250 on each team) on this Middle.




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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




 MATCH OUTCOME                RESULT OF THE                 TRADER’S         MIDDLE/SIDE/
                                  BETS                    PROFIT/LOSS            LOSS

  Team A loses by                  Bet On                $477.50 - $500 =    LOSS = $22.50
 more than 9 points             Team B Wins                  - $22.50

     Team A loses                  Bet On                 $477.50 + $250
      by 5 points               Team A Wins                  - $500 =            SIDE
                                                                               +$227.50
                                  Bet On                    + $227.50
                               Team B Pushes

    Team A loses                   Bet On                 $477.50 + $250
 by exactly 9 points            Team B Wins                  - $500 =            SIDE
                                                                               +$227.50
                                  Bet On                    + $227.50
                               Team A Pushes

   Team A loses                    Bet On                $477.50 + $477.50
 by 6, 7 or 8 points            Team A Wins                    - $500           MIDDLE
                                                                                +$455
                                   Bet On                   = WIN $455
                                Team B Wins

   Team A Loses by                 Bet On                $477.50 - $500 =    LOSS = $22.50
  1, 2, 3 or 4 Points           Team A Wins                  - $22.50

     Team A Wins                   Bet On                $477.50 - $500 =    LOSS = $22.50
                                Team A Wins                  - $22.50



            There are 7 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

           There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

           There are 3 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00



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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader

EXAMPLES


Example 2: Totals (Under/Over) Middle



           Bookie 1                           Under 25      Over 25
                                              Price 1.91   Price 1.91

           Bookie 2                           Under 35      Over 35
                                              Price 1.91   Price 1.91



A 10-point Middle exists between

Bookmaker 1’s [Over 25] and

Bookmaker 2’s [Under 35]



The table on the next page displays all of the possible outcomes for a
trader who invests a total of $500 ($250 on each team) on this Middle.




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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




 MATCH OUTCOME                RESULT OF THE                 TRADER’S         MIDDLE/SIDE/
                                  BETS                    PROFIT/LOSS            LOSS

       UNDER 25                   Bet On                 $477.50 - $500 =    LOSS = $22.50
                               UNDER 35 Wins                 - $22.50

                                  Bet On                  $477.50 + $250
                               UNDER 35 Wins                 - $500 =            SIDE
      EXACTLY 25                                                               +$227.50
                                 Bet On                     + $227.50
                              OVER 25 Pushes

                                   Bet On                 $477.50 + $250
                                OVER 25 Wins                 - $500 =            SIDE
      EXACTLY 35                                                               +$227.50
                                 Bet On                     + $227.50
                             UNDER 35 Pushes

 26, 27, 28, 29, 30,               Bet On                $477.50 + $477.50
   31, 32, 33, 34               OVER 25 Wins                   - $500           MIDDLE
                                                                                +$455
                                  Bet On                    = WIN $455
                               UNDER 35 Wins

        OVER 35                    Bet On                $477.50 - $500 =    LOSS = $22.50
                                OVER 35 Wins                 - $22.50



            There are 2 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

           There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

           There are 9 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00




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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




EXAMPLES

Example 3: Cross Market Middle

  A lot of cross-market sports arbitrage trades use bets whose
  properties include refunds under certain conditions, whilst other
  bets in the trade payout as winners.

  This is the same property that makes Middles profitable. However,
  since cross market trades are also arbitrage trades, there are no
  outcomes which result in a loss.

           Bookie 1                      Sampdoria (+2)     1.30

           Bookie 2                        Livorno (-1.5)   4.20

           Bookie 3                        Livorno (-2.5)   8.00

The first thing to notice is that to any conventional sports arbitrage
trader, these prices would not indicate that an arb exists. Convert the
prices into percentages and they sum to over 113%

However, this is an arb. Here's why...

Sampdoria (+2) pays out fully if Sampdoria wins, draws or loses by 1
goal. It's refunded completely if they lose by exactly 2 goals

Livorno (-1.5) pays out fully if Livorno wins by more than 1 goal

Livorno (-2.5) pays out fully if Livorno wins by more than 2 goals

The table on the next page displays all of the possible outcomes for a
trader who invests a total of $100 on this trade.


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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




There are many different ways that a trader might choose to apportion
his stakes in this trade: for equal payout regardless of result or for a
higher payout for any pair of outcomes or any single outcome.
Click here for more detailed information about cross market trading
In this example, we apportion the stakes to favour the outcome of
Livorno winning by 2 goals:
Sampdoria (+2): $77.00 | Livorno (-1.5): $22.00 | Livorno (-2.5): $1.00


     MATCH              SAMPDORIA               LIVORNO       LIVORNO     TOTAL
    OUTCOME                (+2)                   (-1.5)        (-2.5)   PAYOUT

   SAMPDORIA               $100.10                     0         0       $100.10
     WINS

       DRAW                $100.10                     0         0       $100.10

     LIVORNO                                           0         0
     WINS BY               $100.10                                       $100.10
      1 GOAL

     LIVORNO                                                     0
     WINS BY                $77.00                   $92.40              $169.40
     2 GOALS

    LIVORNO                     0                    $92.40      $8
    WINS BY                                                              $100.10
   MORE THAN
    2 GOALS


Notice that all possible outcomes are covered without any risk. Your total
investment in the trade is 100 and you stand to make back 169.40 if the
                     result is Livorno wins by 2 goals.

                          That's a risk-free profit of almost 70%



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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




TRAP NUMBERS

Trap Numbers (sometimes referred to as key numbers) need to be taken
into account when calculating the value of a middle.

These numbers arise due to nuances in a particular sport. For example, in
NFL between 1982 to 2001 3 numbers stand out:

Just over 10% of matches priced at +7 finished at +7.
Just over 10% of matches priced at +3 finished at +3.
Well under 1% of matches finished on 0 (a tie).

In contrast, for other handicaps, the outcome of the match finished on
the number of the time.

Ties in NFL are almost non-existent because there is usually a score in
overtime. The scoring in NFL is 3 points for field goals, 5 for a touchdown
and 2 for a conversion, which means that the scores usually increase by 3
or 7 each time.

Thus, 3 and 7 are Trap numbers in NFL.




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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




HOW DO I GET STARTED?

Trading Middles & Sides is not for everyone. With the opportunity for
higher profits come risks (except with risk-free cross market trades).

Although these risks are tightly controlled, if you are risk-averse then you
will probably prefer to concentrate on sports arbitrage.

However, if trading middles & sides does interest you, then the
automated service within the TraderZone may be just what you need.

Using the same engine which locates sports arbitrage trades, our servers
scan for middles & sides in the following sports:

                     MLB | NBA | NHL | NFL | Rugby | Soccer

The suite of Middles filters allows you to define with precision exactly
what type of trades you will receive. You will be able to change your
settings at any time in order to experiment with your trading.

To try it out for free, just log into the TraderZone.




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How To Become A Successful Sports Arbitrage Trader




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