Carbon Dioxide Offsets Analysis - Marginal Abatement Cost Schedules

							Marginal Abatement Cost Schedules Used for analysis of the CO2 offsets provisions of S.

This spreadsheet presents the marginal abatement cost schedules used in the offsets analysis. For a description o methodology used to perform the analysis, please see "Technical Support Document - Analysis of Carbon Dioxide O of the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003 (S. 843)," available: at http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/mp/pssupport/OffsetMe

O2 offsets provisions of S. 843

offsets analysis. For a description of the ument - Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Offsets Provisions v/airmarkets/mp/pssupport/OffsetMethodology.pdf

These are the marginal abatement cost schedules used for the primary results for the EPA analysis of the GHG provisions of S. 843. They represent abatement from reduced fossil fuel use. The schedules are generated by the Second Generation Model (SGM) developed by DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Sands, Ronald D. 2004. “Dynamics of Carbon Abatement in the Second Generation Model, ” Energy Economics 26(4):721-738. These data are in million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) and use year 1999 U.S. Dollars

2010
U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries $0.00 0 0 0 $5.00 $10.00 $25.00 $50.00 $100.00 13.58 26.49 61.90 112.45 192.16 24.83 47.90 108.49 190.58 339.05 74.90 138.92 291.63 481.20 763.27

2020
U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries $0.00 0 0 0 $5.00 $10.00 $25.00 $50.00 $100.00 27.94 72.20 136.01 223.11 378.80 49.45 94.13 207.39 352.84 558.46 146.36 270.05 559.25 900.08 1349.88

These marginal abatement cost schedules represent the technical potential for abatement of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions by region. There are three categories of non-CO2 gases with associated marginal abatement cost schedules: Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), and a group of synthetic chemicals with strong greenhouse forcing characteristics called "high global warming potential" gases (high GWP gases)

These data will be published in a forthcoming issue of the Energy Journal.

Delhotal, K. Casey, F. C. de la Chesnaye, A. Gardiner, J. Bates, and A. Sankovski, 2005. Mitigation of Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Waste, Energy and Industry. Energy Journal (forthcoming). Ottinger-Schaefer, D., D. Godwin, and J. Harnisch, 2004. Estimating Future Emissions and Potential Reductions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 . Energy Journal (forthcoming). All of these data are in million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) and use year 2000 U.S. Dollars

Methane
2010
US Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World ($20.00) 0.70 1.96 4.58 2.66 7.24 ($10.00) 1.16 7.52 13.25 8.69 21.93 $0.00 20.18 21.03 28.27 41.21 69.48 $10.00 20.19 26.30 36.47 46.49 82.95 $20.00 20.19 39.59 45.84 59.78 105.62 $30.00 25.40 48.62 68.15 74.03 142.18 $40.00 32.28 62.44 93.14 94.72 187.86 $50.00 48.36 72.17 135.96 120.53 256.49 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 49.23 50.56 50.66 53.40 53.40 59.46 81.50 82.11 85.81 91.44 96.10 97.55 165.28 165.59 171.76 179.48 188.49 198.46 130.74 132.67 136.47 144.84 149.51 157.01 296.02 298.26 308.23 324.33 337.99 355.46 >$200 89.65 147.89 271.63 237.54 509.17

2020
US Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World ($20.00) 0.74 2.11 5.98 2.86 8.84 ($10.00) 1.23 7.66 17.61 8.89 26.51 $0.00 19.43 21.20 37.11 40.63 77.74 $10.00 19.43 26.38 48.67 45.82 94.49 $20.00 19.43 40.46 61.71 59.89 121.60 $30.00 24.65 50.01 92.82 74.66 167.47 $40.00 30.79 64.82 127.62 95.61 223.23 $50.00 45.20 74.46 180.44 119.65 300.09 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 46.11 47.52 47.62 50.52 50.52 55.79 83.36 84.04 88.08 94.02 98.79 100.66 216.68 217.15 225.88 235.71 247.98 261.41 129.47 131.56 135.70 144.54 149.31 156.45 346.15 348.71 361.58 380.25 397.29 417.85 >$200 84.18 154.18 357.81 238.37 596.17

Nitrous Oxide
2010
Nitric Acid U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World Adipic Acid U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World ($20.00) 0 0 0 0 0 ($20.00) 0 0 0 0 0 ($10.00) 0 0 0 0 0 ($10.00) 0 0 0 0 0 $0.00 0 0 0 0 0 $0.00 0 0 0 0 0 $10.00 4.45 11.29 9.67 15.74 25.41 $10.00 2.64 5.74 7.89 8.38 16.27 $20.00 5.25 13.10 9.67 18.35 28.02 $20.00 2.64 5.74 7.89 8.38 16.27 $30.00 5.25 13.10 9.67 18.35 28.02 $30.00 2.64 5.74 7.89 8.38 16.27 $40.00 5.25 13.10 9.67 18.35 28.02 $40.00 2.64 5.74 7.89 8.38 16.27 $50.00 5.25 13.10 9.67 18.35 28.02 $50.00 2.64 5.74 7.89 8.38 16.27 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 13.10 13.10 13.10 13.10 13.10 13.10 9.67 9.67 9.67 9.67 9.67 9.67 18.35 18.35 18.35 18.35 18.35 18.35 28.02 28.02 28.02 28.02 28.02 28.02 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 5.74 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 7.89 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 16.27 16.27 16.27 16.27 16.27 16.27 >$200 5.25 13.10 9.67 18.35 28.02 >$200 2.64 5.74 7.89 8.38 16.27

2020
Nitric Acid U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World ($20.00) 0 0 0 0 0 ($10.00) 0 0 0 0 0 $0.00 0 0 0 0 0 $10.00 4.93 11.85 10.65 16.78 27.43 $20.00 5.81 13.75 10.65 19.56 30.21 $30.00 5.81 13.75 10.65 19.56 30.21 $40.00 5.81 13.75 10.65 19.56 30.21 $50.00 5.81 13.75 10.65 19.56 30.21 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 5.81 5.81 5.81 5.81 5.81 5.81 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 10.65 10.65 10.65 10.65 10.65 10.65 19.56 19.56 19.56 19.56 19.56 19.56 30.21 30.21 30.21 30.21 30.21 30.21 >$200 5.81 13.75 10.65 19.56 30.21

Adipic Acid U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World

($20.00) 0 0 0 0 0

($10.00) 0 0 0 0 0

$0.00 0 0 0 0 0

$10.00 3.55 6.03 8.71 9.58 18.29

$20.00 3.55 6.03 8.71 9.58 18.29

$30.00 3.55 6.03 8.71 9.58 18.29

$40.00 3.55 6.03 8.71 9.58 18.29

$50.00 3.55 6.03 8.71 9.58 18.29

$75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 6.03 6.03 6.03 6.03 6.03 6.03 8.71 8.71 8.71 8.71 8.71 8.71 9.58 9.58 9.58 9.58 9.58 9.58 18.29 18.29 18.29 18.29 18.29 18.29

>$200 3.55 6.03 8.71 9.58 18.29

High GWP gases
2010
U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World ($20.00) 0.01 0.18 0.38 0.19 0.58 ($10.00) 0.30 0.90 0.39 1.19 1.58 $0.00 1.10 3.22 6.94 4.31 11.26 $10.00 6.67 7.73 28.61 14.40 43.01 $20.00 9.76 12.67 30.10 22.43 52.52 $30.00 10.24 13.33 33.13 23.57 56.70 $40.00 10.68 14.48 33.21 25.16 58.37 $50.00 10.68 15.28 33.21 25.96 59.17 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 12.35 13.63 14.20 14.59 14.81 14.81 16.96 17.49 18.16 19.40 19.86 19.99 35.34 37.22 38.86 39.44 39.65 39.70 29.31 31.12 32.37 33.99 34.67 34.79 64.65 68.33 71.22 73.43 74.31 74.49 >$200 18.65 25.31 40.46 43.97 84.43

2020
U.S. Kyoto Region Developing Countries Developed Countries World ($20.00) 0.03 0.17 0.43 0.20 0.63 ($10.00) 0.35 1.07 0.43 1.42 1.85 $0.00 1.70 6.66 28.07 8.36 36.44 $10.00 5.74 9.46 52.89 15.20 68.09 $20.00 18.71 16.80 56.75 35.52 92.27 $30.00 21.33 18.60 69.06 39.93 109.00 $40.00 22.38 21.57 69.64 43.95 113.59 $50.00 22.38 22.72 69.69 45.10 114.79 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00 $150.00 $175.00 $200.00 29.75 36.10 40.70 41.37 41.66 41.66 27.08 28.85 30.50 32.97 33.86 34.11 76.56 83.83 86.79 87.77 88.37 88.49 56.84 64.95 71.20 74.34 75.53 75.77 133.39 148.78 157.98 162.10 163.90 164.26 >$200 50.63 45.53 96.89 96.16 193.05

These marginal abatement cost schedules represent the economic potential to sequester CO2 through forestry and agricultural practices world wide. The data for U.S. abatement come from the Forestry and Agricultural Model (FASOM) developed at by McCarl, et. al. Lee, H-C., B.A. McCarl, D. Gillig, and B.C. Murray, "U.S. Agriculture and Forestry based Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation: An Economic Exploration of Time Dependent Effects, " in Rural Lands, Agriculture and Climate beyond 2015: Usage and Management Responses, F. Brouwer and B.A. McCarl (eds), Kluwer Press, 2005.

The marginal abatement cost schedule for international forestry mitigation is taken from the Global Timber Model (GTM) developed by Mendelsohn, Sedgo, and Sohngen. Sohngen, B. "Marginal Cost Curves for Carbon Sequestration in Forests: Estimates for Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical Regions of the World. " at http://aede.osu.edu/people/sohngen.1/forests/ccforest.htm

U.S. Domestic Forest and Agricultural Mitigation
These data are in million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) and use year 2000 U.S. Dollars

2010
$0.00 0 $3.67 $18.33 $55.00 $110.00 $183.33 33.10 81.14 171.46 308.01 407.90

2020
$0.00 0 $3.67 $18.33 $55.00 $110.00 $183.33 29.97 77.70 178.72 378.99 551.28

International Sequestration
These data are in million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) and use year 2000 U.S. Dollars. Negative abatement indicates emissions.

2010
Kyoto Region Developing Countries $0.00 0 0 $4.90 -0.20 118.02 $9.80 $19.60 $24.51 $49.01 $98.02 $196.04 8.55 28.95 43.33 122.63 198.38 291.49 203.48 356.52 428.17 770.28 999.11 1134.67

2020
Kyoto Region Developing Countries $0.00 0 0 $4.90 -0.02 143.86 $9.80 $19.60 $24.51 $49.01 $98.02 $196.04 30.95 75.64 93.97 188.53 306.69 468.62 327.79 593.66 706.52 1338.22 1864.06 2281.04