The 2011 Import and Export Market for Tempered Safety Glass in Germany by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Tempered Safety
        Glass in Germany

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                 Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                           8
2     GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET                          10
    2.1    Imports in Germany in 2011                       10
    2.2    Exports from Germany in 2011                     11
3     IMPORTS IN GERMANY                                    12
    3.1      Africa                                         12
       3.1.1   Egypt                                        12
       3.1.2   South Africa                                 13
    3.2      Asia                                           14
       3.2.1   China                                        14
       3.2.2   Hong Kong                                    15
       3.2.3   India                                        15
       3.2.4   Japan                                        16
       3.2.5   Malaysia                                     17
       3.2.6   South Korea                                  18
       3.2.7   Taiwan                                       19
       3.2.8   Thailand                                     20
    3.3      Europe                                         21
       3.3.1   Austria                                      21
       3.3.2   Belarus                                      21
       3.3.3   Belgium                                      22
       3.3.4   Croatia                                      23
       3.3.5   Czech Republic                               24
       3.3.6   Denmark                                      25
       3.3.7   Finland                                      26
       3.3.8   France                                       27
       3.3.9   Hungary                                      28
       3.3.10 Ireland                                       29
       3.3.11 Italy                                         30
       3.3.12 Lithuania                                     31
       3.3.13 Luxembourg                                    31
       3.3.14 Norway                                        32
       3.3.15 Poland                                        33
       3.3.16 Portugal                                      34
       3.3.17 Romania                                       34
       3.3.18 Russia                                        35
       3.3.19 Slovakia                                      35
       3.3.20 Slovenia                                      36
       3.3.21 Spain                                         37
       3.3.22 Sweden                                        38
       3.3.23 the Netherlands                               39
       3.3.24 Ukraine                                       40
    3.4      Latin America                                  40
       3.4.1   Brazil                                       40
       3.4.2   Colombia                                     41
       3.4.3   Mexico                                       41
    3.5      North America & the Caribbean                  42
       3.5.1   Canada                                       42
       3.5.2   the United States                            43                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                 Contents        vi

    3.6      Oceana                                         44
       3.6.1    Australia                                   44
    3.7      the Middle East                                45
       3.7.1    Israel                                      45
       3.7.2    Turkey                                      46
4     EXPORTS FROM GERMANY                                  47
    4.1      Africa                                         47
       4.1.1   South Africa                                 47
       4.1.2   Tunisia                                      48
    4.2      Asia                                           49
       4.2.1   China                                        49
       4.2.2   Hong Kong                                    50
       4.2.3   Indonesia                                    51
       4.2.4   Japan                                        52
       4.2.5   Malaysia                                     53
       4.2.6   Singapore                                    54
       4.2.7   South Korea                                  55
       4.2.8   Thailand                                     56
    4.3      Europe                                         57
       4.3.1   Austria                                      57
       4.3.2   Belarus                                      58
       4.3.3   Belgium                                      59
       4.3.4   Bosnia and Herzegovina                       60
       4.3.5   Croatia                                      61
       4.3.6   Cyprus                                       62
       4.3.7   Czech Republic                               63
       4.3.8   Denmark                                      64
       4.3.9   Estonia                                      65
       4.3.10 Finland                                       66
       4.3.11 France                                        67
       4.3.12 Georgia                                       68
       4.3.13 Greece                                        68
       4.3.14 Iceland                                       69
       4.3.15 Ireland                                       70
       4.3.16 Italy                                         71
       4.3.17 Latvia                                        72
       4.3.18 Lithuania                                     72
       4.3.19 Luxembourg                                    73
       4.3.20 Macedonia                                     73
       4.3.21 Norway                                        74
       4.3.22 Romania                                       75
       4.3.23 Russia                                        76
       4.3.24 Slovakia                                      77
       4.3.25 Slovenia                                      78
       4.3.26 Sweden                                        79
       4.3.27 the Netherlands                               80
    4.4      Latin America                                  81
       4.4.1   Argentina                                    81
       4.4.2   Brazil                                       82
       4.4.3   Mexico                                       83
    4.5      North America & the Caribbean                  84
       4.5.1   Canada                                       84                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                            Contents        vii

       4.5.2    the United States                                      85
    4.6      Oceana                                                    86
       4.6.1    Australia                                              86
       4.6.2    New Zealand                                            87
    4.7      the Middle East                                           87
       4.7.1    Bahrain                                                87
       4.7.2    Israel                                                 88
       4.7.3    Saudi Arabia                                           89
       4.7.4    Turkey                                                 90
    5.1     Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  91
    5.2     ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  92                                 ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                        Tempered Safety Glass in Germany        8

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on tempered safety glass in
Germany face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying tempered safety glass to
Germany? How important is Germany compared to others in terms of the entire global and
regional market? How much do the imports of tempered safety glass vary from one country of
origin to another in Germany? On the supply side, Germany also exports tempered safety glass.
Which countries receive the most exports from Germany? How are these exports concentrated
across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for tempered safety glass in
Germany. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a
local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years
after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to
estimate the market for tempered safety glass for those countries serving Germany via exports, or
supplying from Germany via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key
historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Germany fits into the world market for
imported and exported tempered safety glass. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for Germany in particular, is estimated using a model which
aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From
there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that Germany is likely to receive this year. From
these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Germany compared to other
major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can
be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of tempered safety glass,
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Germany. A
“major” market is defined as a country where Germany represents a substantially large share of
either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to Germany, one can thus observe
how important Germany is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world.
Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of tempered safety glass originating from Germany, for
each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that Germany has in
each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for Germany.
In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are
provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                           Tempered Safety Glass in Germany         9

tempered safety glass to and from Germany to and from all other major countries in the world.
"Tempered Safety Glass" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by
the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International
Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "tempered safety
glass" is 66471 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                       ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                             Tempered Safety Glass in Germany         10

2.1         IMPORTS IN GERMANY IN 2011
                    Imported Tempered Safety Glass in Germany, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)  
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