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Sow Longevity

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Sow Longevity Powered By Docstoc
					Sow Longevity – Its
Improvement and Economic
Importance

            Ken Stalder
    Department of Animal Science
        Iowa State University
    Reported Averages
           Replacement Culling Avg. Parity Death
              Rate, % Rate,% At Culling Loss, %

   PigCHAMP    60       42        3.8       7.8
   Pigtales    53       47   Not Reported
Worldwide Replacement
Rates
   Australian average 63.8% replacement from
    1992 through 2002
   Brazil 2002 averaged 55% replacement rate,
    43% culling rate, 5.5% death loss, and
    average parity of culled sows of 4.16.
   Canada 2002 averaged 58% replacement
    rate, 39.5% culling rate, 6.5% death loss,
    and average parity of culled sows of 4.71.
   Japan 2000 averaged 47.6% replacement
    rate, 28.6% culling rate, 5.3% death loss,
    and average parity of culled sows of 3.8.
        How Do Top Herds
        Perform?
   2002 PigCHAMP data Upper 10 Percentile
       Replacement rate 32.7%
       Culling rate 22%
       Death Loss 2.8%
       Average parity at culling 5.5
   Koketsu et al. (1999)
       A cohort of females born in 1990
       Average lifetime pig production 67.2 pigs
       Average parity at removal was 5.6 parities
Why should we be
concerned with longevity?
   Performance differences
       Number born alive
       Litter weaning weight
       Grow – Finish Performance
       Better protection from disease??
   Introduction of more gilts
   Associated costs
   Welfare issue
Reasons For Culling
Reason                      Percentage Culled
 Reproductive failure            30 - 35
 Old age                         15 - 20
 Performance                     15 - 20
 Feet and leg problems           10 - 15
 Death                            5 - 10
 Post-farrowing problems          3 - 5
 Other                            5 - 10
    Cost of Replacing a Sow
   Replacement gilt
   Facility, feed, and labor during isolation and
    acclimation
   Vaccination and other veterinary expenses
   Disease risk
   Opportunity cost (interest rate)
   Performance difference between a gilt and
    mature sow.
Ideal Parity Distribution
                20
                18                            Industry
                16                            Book
% of Sow Herd




                14
                12
                10
                 8
                 6
                 4
                 2
                 0
                     1   2   3   4   5    6    7   >7
                                 Parity
     Impact of Distribution on
     Productivity

   Average parity of sow herd 3.6 (industry) and
    3.86 (book)
National Swine Improvement
Federation Parity adjustment factors
for number born alive
 Parity   Number born alive
  1                 1.2
  2                 0.9
  3                 0.2
4-5                 0
  6                 0.2
  7                 0.5
  8                 0.9
  9+                1.1
National Swine Improvement
Federation Parity adjustment factors
for 21-day Litter Weight
Parity       21-day Litter Weight Adj.
  1               16.2
  2               0
  3               1.0
  4               3.8
  5               6.2
  6               9.5
  7               11.6
  8               15.2
  9+              21.5
      Given 10.2 pigs born alive from an
      average parity of sows farrowed of 3.5
               Number       Value of               Difference
        Number Born Alive   Pigs                   from
Maximum Born   Per 100      Produced @ Value Per   Maximum,
Parity  Alive  Sows         $30 / pig  Year, $     $ / Year

2        9.79    979        $29,370     $1,527,240 $87,360
3        10.05   1005       $30,150     $1,567,800 $46,800

4        10.21   1021       $30,630     $1,592,760 $21,840
5        10.31   1031       $30,930     $1,608,360 $6,240
6        10.35   1035       $31,050     $1,614,600 $0
7        10.35   1035       $31,050     $1,614,600 $0
8        10.33   1033       $30,990     $1,611,480 $3,120
         Ideal Distribution
           Given
           • Maximum Parity
           •Culling per parity at 15% or 35% per year
Parity           1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8
         1 100.000   54.1   38.9   31.4   27.0   24.1   22.1   20.6
         2           45.9   33.0   26.7   22.9   20.5   18.8   17.5
         3                  28.1   22.7   19.5   17.4   16.0   14.9
         4                         19.3   16.6   14.8   13.6   12.7
         5                                14.1   12.6   11.5   10.8
         6                                       10.7    9.8    9.1
         7                                               8.3    7.8
         8                                                      6.6
Take Home Point:
Economic Importance of Sow
Longevity
   Reduced sow longevity (parity of sow at
    culling) results in fewer litters in which
    a sow has an opportunity to be
    sufficiently productive in order for her
    purchase to be profitable.
   Because of the cost of replacement
    females and short herd life, commercial
    swine producers should economically
    evaluate their replacement breeding
    herd decisions.
How do you evaluate how long
a sow needs to remain in

the breeding herd to be a
profitable investment?
        Development of the Sow
        Longevity Calculator
       Farrow-to-Finish and Breed-to-Wean custom
        spreadsheets available
       Uses Net Present Value analysis
       Version 2.0 Now Available

   Producer supplies
       Herd specific production data
       Operation specific financial information
            Income
            Fixed and variable costs
  Data Entry Sheet
Price of Gilt                      $ 200.00 Number of Pigs Sold/Litter        8.53
Annual Discount Rate                 10.00% Weight Sold, cwt.                 2.56
Parity Discount Rate                  4.48% $/cwt. Hogs                $    44.00
Percentage of gilts purchased
that do not enter the breeding
herd                                     10% Revenue/Litter           $    961.18
Development Feed Costs             $ 28.06 Feed Cost/Litter           $    621.79
Other Development Costs            $    7.50 Other Expenses           $    185.07
Total Development Costs            $ 35.56 Net Income/Litter          $    154.31
Total Gilt Price                   $ 248.53 Number of sows                  2,400
Number of Pigs Born Alive/Litter     10.2    Litters/sow/Yr                   2.23
Birth to Weaning Death Loss         11.77% Total Litters/Yr                 5,352
                                             Average Parity of
Nursery Death Loss                  2.45% Farrowed Sows                 3.50
Grow-Finish Death Loss              2.80% Years of Sow                  1.57
Death Loss on Sows                  5.90% Weight of Sow @ Culling       400
Wt of gilts @ culling                300     $/Cwt for Culls           $35.83
$/cwt for cull gilts               $ 44.00 Cull Value                 $ 134.86
Revenue for cull gilts             $ 13.20
             Feed Data Entry



                                                  Feed      No. of     Total      Price    Feed
Class    Weight                Feed             (lbs/hd)    Head)     (tons)     ($/ton)  Cost ($)
Pigs      5-10              SEW Diet                 2.00      9.00      0.01   $1,275.00   $11.47
          10-15           Transition Diet            5.00      8.93      0.02     $722.00   $16.11
          15-25            Phase II Diet            15.00      8.85      0.07     $316.00   $20.99
          25-50           Phase III Diet            50.00      8.78      0.22     $210.00   $46.11
          50-80            Grower Diet I            65.00      8.72      0.28     $177.50   $50.31
         80-120           Grower Diet II           110.00      8.66      0.48     $172.00   $81.93
         120-170          Finisher Diet I          160.00      8.60      0.69     $154.60 $106.36
        170-Finish        Finisher Diet II         315.00      8.54      1.34     $144.00 $193.68     COST/HEAD
                               Total               722.00                3.11     $169.44 $526.96 $           61.71
                     Nursery-Finish Feed/Gain        2.93
Sows                      Gestation Diet           868.06     1.00      0.43     $160.35    $69.60
                          Lactation Diet           285.00     1.00      0.14     $177.08    $25.23
                               Total            1,153.06                0.58                 94.83
                                                                                                     TOTAL FEED
                                                                                                   COST/PURCHASED
                                                                                                       FEMALE
Gilts                Replacement Gilt Diet       350          1       0.18       $160.35    $28.06 $         122.89

                             TOTAL                                    3.86      $ 161.02   $621.79
                  Facilities and Other Costs

                               Operation Total        Per Litter
Investment / Facility Cost   $     4,290,000.00
% Enterprise Equity                         50%
% Interest Rate                             10%
Annual Principal &
Interest Payments                ($349,088.87) $           (65.23)
                 Other Operating Expenses
Veterinary and Medicine /
Litter                       $      159,757.20    $         29.85
Breeding / Litter            $       80,280.00    $         15.00
Waste Handling / Litter      $        2,676.00    $          0.50
Insurance / Litter           $        5,352.00    $          1.00
Labor / Litter               $      417,777.12    $         78.06
Utilities / Litter           $      194,010.00    $         36.25
Marketing and Hauling /
Litter                       $       45,652.56 $             8.53
Maintence and Repairs /
Litter                       $        84,989.76 $           15.88
Total Other Costs / Litter   $     1,339,583.51 $          250.30
Non-Feed Costs/Pig                              $           29.33
Adjusting for Parity
Performance Differences

Parity
Adjustments Number Born Alive
       1           9
       2          9.3
       3          10
       4         10.2
       5         10.2
       6          10
       7          9.7
       8          9.3
     9+           9.1
Parity Adjustment Caution
   Only make these adjustments if you are
    extremely confident in the production
    numbers by parity.
   Do not adjust if values from your herd
    are based on small numbers
       Within a parity
       Across all parities
  What does all of this get
  you?

Net Present Value Analysis


What does the NPV number mean?
   > 0 means the investment is profitable in the long term.

   < 0 means the investment will lose money in the long
     term.
               Sensitivity Analyses – Gilt
               Purchase Price (F-F)
Net Present Value per gilt by parity when the price of replacement gilt varies.
Gilt Purchase Price                      1                      2           3            4          5          6
                        125         $3.20                 $52.54 $125.92          $203.29    $277.35    $341.67
                        150 ($24.58)                      $24.76 $98.14           $175.51    $249.57    $313.90
                        175 ($52.36)                      ($3.01) $70.36          $147.74    $221.79    $286.12
                        200 ($80.14)                     ($30.79) $42.58          $119.96    $194.01    $258.34
                        225 ($107.91)                    ($58.57) $14.80           $92.18    $166.24    $230.56
                        250 ($135.69)                    ($86.35) ($12.97)         $64.40    $138.46    $202.78
                        275 ($163.47)                   ($114.13) ($40.75)         $36.63    $110.68    $175.01
                        300 ($191.25)                   ($141.90) ($68.53)          $8.85     $82.90    $147.23
               Sensitivity Analyses – Number
               Born Alive
Net Present Value per gilt by parity when the number of pigs born alive varies.
Number Born Alive/Litter                 1                    2            3              4           5           6
                          8.45 ($151.50)             ($170.46) ($162.46)          ($147.64)   ($133.47)   ($126.45)
                          8.70 ($141.31)             ($150.51) ($133.16)          ($109.42)    ($86.69)    ($71.48)
                          8.95 ($131.11)             ($130.55) ($103.87)           ($71.19)    ($39.90)    ($16.51)
                          9.20 ($120.92)             ($110.60)      ($74.58)       ($32.96)      $6.88      $38.46
                          9.45 ($110.72)              ($90.65)      ($45.29)         $5.27      $53.66      $93.43
                          9.70 ($100.53)              ($70.70)      ($16.00)        $43.50     $100.45     $148.40
                          9.95   ($90.33)             ($50.74)       $13.29         $81.73     $147.23     $203.37
                         10.20   ($80.14)             ($30.79)       $42.58        $119.96     $194.01     $258.34
                         10.45   ($69.94)             ($10.84)       $71.87        $158.19     $240.80     $313.31
                         10.70   ($59.75)                $9.11     $101.17         $196.42     $287.58     $368.28
                         10.95   ($49.55)              $29.07      $130.46         $234.65     $334.36     $423.25
                         11.20   ($39.36)              $49.02      $159.75         $272.87     $381.15     $478.22
                         11.45   ($29.16)              $68.97      $189.04         $311.10     $427.93     $533.19
                         11.70   ($18.97)              $88.92      $218.33         $349.33     $474.71     $588.16
                         11.95     ($8.77)            $108.88      $247.62         $387.56     $521.50     $643.13
               Sensitivity Analyses – Market
               Hog Price
Net Present Value per gilt by parity for varying market hog price.
$/CWT for Hogs                           1                      2            3            4         5             6
 $                   32.00       (306.43)                (480.72)    ($637.16)    ($784.05) ($924.64)   ($1,061.79)
 $                   34.00       (268.71)                (405.74)    ($523.87)    ($633.38) ($738.20)     ($841.77)
 $                   36.00       (231.00)                (330.75)    ($410.58)    ($482.72) ($551.75)     ($621.74)
 $                   38.00       (193.28)                (255.76)    ($297.29)    ($332.05) ($365.31)     ($401.72)
 $                   40.00       (155.57)                (180.77)    ($184.00)    ($181.38) ($178.87)     ($181.70)
 $                   42.00       (117.85)                (105.78)     ($70.71)     ($30.71)    $7.57        $38.32
 $                   44.00         (80.14)                (30.79)      $42.58      $119.96   $194.01       $258.34
 $                   46.00         (42.42)                 44.20      $155.87      $270.63   $380.46       $478.36
 $                   48.00          (4.71)                119.19      $269.17      $421.30   $566.90       $698.38
 $                   50.00          33.01                 194.17      $382.46      $571.96   $753.34       $918.40
 $                   52.00          70.72                 269.16      $495.75      $722.63   $939.78     $1,138.43
 $                   54.00        108.44                  344.15      $609.04      $873.30 $1,126.22     $1,358.45
 $                   56.00        146.16                  419.14      $722.33    $1,023.97 $1,312.66     $1,578.47
               Sensitivity Analyses – Feed Costs
               Per Market Hog
Net Present Value per gilt by parity for varying feed costs.
Feed Cost/Head                           1                      2         3          4          5          6
 $                       46         33.50                 195.16    383.94     573.94     755.78     921.29
 $                       49         10.78                 149.97    315.67     483.14     643.43     788.70
 $                       52        (11.95)                104.78    247.40     392.35     531.07     656.11
 $                       56        (34.68)                 59.59    179.13     301.55     418.72     523.52
 $                       59        (57.41)                 14.40    110.85     210.75     306.37     390.93
$                       62        (80.14)                 (30.79)     42.58     119.96     194.01     258.34
$                        65      (102.86)                 (75.98)    (25.69)     29.16      81.66     125.75
$                        68      (125.59)                (121.17)    (93.96)    (61.63)    (30.69)     (6.84)
$                        71      (148.32)                (166.36)   (162.23)   (152.43)   (143.05)   (139.43)
$                        74      (171.05)                (211.55)   (230.50)   (243.22)   (255.40)   (272.02)
$                        77      (193.78)                (256.74)   (298.77)   (334.02)   (367.75)   (404.60)
                      Points:
           Take Home Points Factors
           Influencing Net Present Value of a
           Breeding Herd Replacement Female
Major Factors
     Pigs produced (number born alive, mortalities
      at all levels, and substandard pigs at marketing)
          ± ½ pig changes parity at which positive NPV is
           reached
          5% change in number born alive
     Price received for pigs marketed
          ± 2$ - 4$ changes parity at which positive NPV is
           reached
          4.5% to 9% change in price
     Feed costs (feed efficiency and ingredient cost)
          ± 3$ per head changes parity at which positive NPV is
           reached
          4.8% change in feed costs
      Take Home Points: Factors
      Influencing Net Present Value of a
      Breeding Herd Replacement Female
Relatively Minor Factors
     Replacement Gilt Cost
          ± 50$ change in gilt price required to change parity at
           which positive NPV is reached
          25% change in number born alive


     Interest Rate
     Operation Equity
     Cull Animal Market Price
Factors Influencing Sow
Longevity
   Host of management effects
      feed intake, lactation length, gestation

       housing, etc.
   Factors under some genetic control
   Backfat of gilt at selection effects sow
    longevity
Summary
   Improved longevity can increase profitability
   Focus on management practices that
    improve longevity
   More sows should be culled because of poor
    performance rather than reproductive
    reasons.
    Those Interested in The
    Spreadsheet
Spreadsheet designed to evaluate the investment in a
  replacement gilt available at:
  Iowa Pork Industry Center      515-294-4103
  Iowa Pork Industry Center Web Site:
  http://www.extension.iastate.edu/ipic
  Porkline (Iowa Only) 800-808-7675
  e-mail me at stalder@iastate.edu
Thank You for Your Time and
Attention
Are there any questions?

				
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