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					                  NATO-Russia Seminar Moscow May 31-June 2, 2006                       ВЕКТ

                                                                                       Т




        INTERNET-BASED METHODS OF
         ASSESSING THE DAMAGE AND
       OPERATIONAL RISK FOR CRITICAL
             INFRASTRUCTURES

                     S.A Timashev, L.V.Polouian
Science & Engng Center ”Reliability & Safety of Large Systems”, Ural Branch,
                     Russian Academy of Sciences

                       620049, Ekaterinburg, Studencheskaya str.54A

        Tel/fax +7 343 374-1682; Email wekt@r66.ru, TimashevS@cox.net
Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                   ВЕКТ

                                                                                                        Т
                     Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                         Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety


                                   FORMULA OF RISK
                                                     Failure consequences
                    Conditional                                                                      Expected
                                                     • Fatalities/casualties*
Risk =             probability of                                                              =     Failure
                      failure                        • Environmental impact                            Cost
                                                       of failure
                                                     • Property damage
                                                     • Downtime costs
                                                     • Loss of
* Includes individual,                                 service/efficiency
societal and territorial                             • Public image damage
types of risk                                        • Other


             Links Risk & Remaining Life Monitoring to Finance
Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                ВЕКТ

                                                                                                     Т
                     Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                         Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety


         THE ESSENCE OF OBTAINING PDF OF
            TRES FROM THE ORIGINAL PDF




Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                ВЕКТ

                                                                                                     Т
                     Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                         Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety

          EVOLUTION OF DAMAGE ACCUMULATION
              PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION




Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
                RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                  ВЕКТ

                                                                                        Т




            ULTIMATE GOALS OF DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (DA)

      1) Fast (near real-time) preliminary damage assessment right after
the incident/catastrophe (EMERCOM, FEMA needs)

    2) Evaluation of maximal/average/minimal damage (asset design or
rehabilitation/management /operation optimization, post- event DA )

    3) “Precise” damage assessment (design, operation of super- critical
assets, R&D requirements, post-event DA)

With development of relevant software, methods of the third group will,
ultimately, serve the second and, possibly, the first goal.
 Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                  ВЕКТ

                                                                                       Т




                   METHODS FOR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

          Should be adequate to the ultimate goal

GOAL 1. Direct on-site data gathering, expert assessments

GOAL 2. Quantitative methods, statistics, scoring methods, inference
and their fusion

GOAL 3. “Heavy artillery” quantitative methods

With development of relevant software, methods of the third group will
serve the second and, possibly, first goal.
Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                ВЕКТ

                                                                                                     Т
                     Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                         Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety




    EXISTING METHODS OF COST EVALUATION OF
     LIFE/INJURY, ENVIRONMENT CONTAMINATION,
                              PROPERTY DAMAGE DUE
                   TO FAILURE OF CRITICAL ASSETS




Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
                   RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                ВЕКТ

                                                                                                         Т
                         Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                             Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety

COST OF LIFE/LIMB/INJURY:
                       CURRENT APPROACHES
•       COST OF PERSONNEL ILLNESS (LOWER BOUND ASSESSMENT)
•       AVERAGE OVER A POPULATION QUERY
•       LOSSES OF SOCIETY DUE TO A MORTALITY
•       THE «HUMAN CAPITAL» METHOD
•       AVERAGE RESIDUAL LIFE EXPECTANCE (ARLE) METHOD
•       USING INSURANCE ACTUARIAL DATA / CURRENT PRACTICE
        -- Cost of suffering (victim, relatives-includes duration of suffering)
        -- Cost of life / injury insurance
        -- Cost of supporting relatives

•       «COST OF SAVING A LIFE» (CSL) PRINCIPLE , or
•       IMPLIED COST OF AVERTING A FATALITY (ICAF) APPROACH

              ICAF = |GDP|e (e = life expectancy at birth)

    Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                ВЕКТ

                                                                                                     Т
                     Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                         Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety


                   ECOLOGICAL DAMAGE COSTS



          Ecological damage
                       - Atmospheric pollution
                       - Landscape / soil contamination
                       - Water reservoirs pollution
         Calculated as costs of rehabilitation and
         fines.

Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                ВЕКТ

                                                                                                     Т
                     Basics of the System and Holistic Engineering Approach to Pipeline Integrity,
                                         Remaining Life, Reliability and Safety



              EVALUATING PROPERTY DAMAGE


       • Property damage size depends on
          - property destruction scale (buildings, infrastructure
            etc.)
          - equipment destruction
          - market value of the destroyed / damaged assets
          - cost of repair
          - lost revenue during the downtime
          - loss of market share & other long-term
            consequences

Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
                                                                                              ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                         Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk


              DAMAGE COST ASSESSMENT VIA
                 COMPUTER SIMULATION



         • Assessment is conducted by averaging
           multiple computer simulation results over a
           full group of scenarios (FGS) of full scale
           catastrophes



Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
                                                                                              ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                         Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk


                 STEPS OF FAILURE SIMULATION
        Step 0            Simulation of the failure initializing event

        Step 1            Modeling of full size infrastructure catastrophe:
                          • Integrity loss of a critical infrastructure component(s)
                          • Damage of the environment
                          • Development of the breakdown situation (fracture,
                            projectiles, diffusion, combustion, spread, filtration,
                            etc.)
        Step 2            Assessment of the zones of destruction (location, form,
                          size, etc.)

        Step 3            Estimation of the damage level of live and non-live
                          objects and of the probability of such destruction

Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
                                                                                              ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                         Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk


                 STEPS OF FAILURE SIMULATION
                            (cont’d)
       Step 4            Calculation of
                         • The number of injuries and fatalities
                         • The economic losses due to structure breakdown
                           (estimates and calculations)
       Step 5            Multiple simulation of Steps 1-4 with different
                         realizations of the input random variables

      Step 6            Calculation of the statistical parameters of the damage
                        size by averaging over the set of modeled realizations

       Step 7            Assessment of generalized figures of damage size by
                         averaging over an ensemble of similar structures


Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
 POSSIBLE ZONE OF DESTRUCTION FOR A
CRANE SUPPORTING BEAM




                          1,2,3 — equipment
                      located in the shop under
                         the supporting beam
DESTRUCTION ZONE FOR A TRUSS COLLAPSE




 1 — columns; 2 — adjacent trusses; 3 — line where edge АВ of the collapsed
        truss meets the floor; 4, 5 —two equi-probable destruction zones
    Characteristics of the economic equivalent of non-
                     economic losses

                                                                        Economic
                                           Number of     Equivalent of the non-economic             Economic damage
                                           mortalities       damage (t – Т0 = 20years, t=1977)
   Catastrophe - Initiating structure
                                                            Rub.      Share (portion) of the in-situ cost of the
                                              <N>
                                                                         structure
                                              0,20          2099                 2,9                        8,1
Corrugated steel roof panel (1 х 12 m)

                                              1,02         10704                  27                       34,7
Reinforced concrete roof slab (3 х 12) m

                                              6,83         70676                137,7                      24,2
Steel crane - support beam 12 m long

                                             13,80         144819               138,4                      69,5
24 m long steel roof truss

Reinforced concrete column                   23,50         246616               354,8                      123,1
              Statistical Characteristics of Damage
             (in conditions of machinery repair shops)
                                                                                                 In portion of the
   STRUCTURE (L-length)             Number of      Average,   Standard,   Assymetry   Curtosis        in-situ cost
                                       collapsed   K Rub,      K Rub.
                                    structures       m1
 Aluminum panel(s), L = 12 m            1            2,78       0,46        1,88        4,11           6,89
.                                       8           12,45       1,65        0,14       -0,95           3,85

Corrugated steel panel (15 panel                     5,88       1,07        0,87        0,15           8,12
    block) L = 12 m
.



Reinforced concrete roof panel,         1            12,4       13,35       1,89        1,72          34,73
     L = 12 m                           8           59,05       47,32       0,38       -0,96          20,68


Steel truss, L = 24 m                   1           72,58       33,36       0,12       -1,08          69,45


Crane-support beam, L = 12 m            1           13,11       3,71        1,28        3,59          25,56

Reinforced concrete column            1, corner     32,82         -           -          -            47,22
                                     1, end row     55,41         -           -          -            79,73
                                   1, middle row    92,30         -           -          -            123,07
Comparison of Truss Collapse Damage
       Assessment Methods
             Damage Assessment          Relative
                  Method                 Damage
                                         Size, %

             First…………………                  100
             Second………………                  131,6
             Third………………                   154,1


•First method – DZ is the solution of a ballistic problem
•Second method –DZ is the conjunction of all kinematically
possible variants of the truss collapse
•Third method – DZ is the full area under (related to) the truss
                                                                                                        ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                   Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk




           BARIC DAMAGE OF BUILDINGS AND
                    EQUIPMENT




Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.   From:SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
                                                                                                                  ВЕКТ

              RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                              Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk


THE LIMIT PARAMETERS OF THE EXTERNAL BARIC
 INFLUENCE IMPACT FOR DIFFERENT LEVELS OF
             BUILDINGS DAMAGE

                         Destruction                                ΔP, kPa            I, kPa*sec             W
   1. Minimal destruction (connections
      rupture, disconnection of                                         4.5              0.12               0.15
      structures)
   2. Considerable damage of bearing
                                                                       18.0              0.30                0.4
      structures
   3. Considerable damage (50…70% of
      walls destroyed or on the brink of                               40.0              0.50                0.8
      collapse)
    I – force impulse,
    W – level of building damage

Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.            From: SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
                                                                                                                         ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                                    Т
               Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk

     EXCESSIVE PRESSURE CORRESPONDING TO DIFFERENT GRADES OF
        DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES AND FACILITIES
                                                                           Pressure ΔP, that corresponds to level of destruction
                                Object
                                                                            Total        Large          Average         Small
                                                Residential and industrial buildings
                      Multi story brick buildings                          30…40         20…30          10…20           8…10
                       Low rise brick buildings                            35…45         25…35          15…25           8…15
                           Wooden buildings                                20…30         12…20           8…12            6…8
 Industrial buildings with heavy metal or reinforced concrete carcass     60…100         50…60          40…50           20…40
   Industrial buildings without carcass of with a light metal carcass      60…80         40…50          30…40           20…30
                        Structures and grids of city municipal, energy and communications infrastructure
                                Utilities                                  25…40         20…25          15…20           10…15
                       Boilers in brick buildings                          35…45         25…35          15…25           10…15
         Municipal underground water, sewage and gas grids                  1500       1000…1500       60…1000         400...600
                         On ground pipelines                                  -           130              50             20
                           Pipelines on piers                                 -          40…50          30…40           20…30
        Manholes and valves of municipal infrastructure grids               1500          1000            300            200
                           Transformer units                                100          40…60          20…40           10…20
                             Water tower                                     70          40…60          20…40           10…20
                          Antenna structures                                40          30…40          20…30           10…20
                       High voltage power lines                           120…200       80…120          50…70           20…40
 Underground cable lines                                                    1500       1000…1500      8000…1000          <800
Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.                    From:SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
                                                                                                           ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                      Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk


EXCESSIVE PRESSURE CORRESPONDING TO DIFFERENT
GRADES OF DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES
              AND FACILITIES (cont’d)

                                                          Pressure ΔP , that corresponds to level of
                     Object                                              destruction
                                                         Total            Large        Average          Small

                                           Transportation structures

 Highways with asphalt and concrete
                                                         4000              3000         1500             300
              coating
     Metal and reinforced concrete
                                                      250…300           200…250        150…200       100…150
       bridges up to 50 m long
               Airport runways                           4000              3000         1500             400
                    Railways                              400               250          175             125
   Power lines of electrical railroads                    120               100          60               40

Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.      From:SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
                                                                                                              ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                         Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk

EXCESSIVE PRESSURE CORRESPONDING TO DIFFERENT GRADES OF
DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS, STRUCTURES AND FACILITIES (cont’d)

                           Transportation and mobile machines, reservoirs
Locomotives up to 50t in mass                                              90          70         50              40
Wooden cargo rail road cars                                                40          35         30              15
Railroad oil LPG tanks                                                     80          70         50              30
All metal railroad cars                                                   150          90         60              35
Ground – digging and road – building machines                             300          200       125              80
Firefighting machines                                                      70          50         35              10
Steel on – ground reservoirs and vessels                                   90          80         55              35
Gasholders and oil / lube and chemical products                            40          35         25              20
reservoirs
Partially buried oil reservoirs                                           100          75         40              20
Underground reservoirs                                                    200          150        75              40

Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.         From:SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
                                                                                                                 ВЕКТ
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                                            Т
              Quantitative Engineering Methods for Evaluating Components of Industrial Risk

BARIC INFLUENCE CHARACTERISTICS RELATED TO DIFFERENT
  LEVELS OF BUILDING DESTRUCTION AND PEOPLE INJURY
           Shock wave action characteristics                       I, Pa * sec          P, Pa            β, Pa2 * sec
                                                Building destruction
 Total destruction                                                     770              70100               886100
Boundary of the zone of partial destruction 50 –                       520              34500               541000
70% of walls are destroyed or are at the brink of
collapse
Boundary of the zone of substantial damage:                            300              14600               119200
damage of some structural elements
Boundary of the zone of minimal damage: rupture                        100              3600                 8950
of connections and disconnection of structures
 Total destruction of windows panes                                     0               7000                    0
 50% destruction of windows panes                                       0               2500                    0
 More than 10% of window panes are destroyed                            0               2000                    0
                           Human survivability when breathing organs are damaged
 50% survivability                                                     440             2.43*105            1.44*108
 Survivability Threshold                                               100             6.59*104            1.62*107


Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.            From:SOR, SoTP, Mow, 2000
           RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                      ВЕКТ

                                                                                       Т




          SOFTWARE FOR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Google –5260 entries

•Technology iTalk ™ (Rapid Damage Assessment Application)
•Arc View 3.2 with the EM tool (Earthquake model)
•ESRI Incident Survey Tool (GIS based)
•HAZUS (USA, Natural hazards only)
•LEADERS4 GRC (Government, R, C)
•TUCOFS (The Ultimate Collection of Forensic Software)
•PIRAMID (Canada, pipelines)
•PRIMA (Russia, pipelines)
• And more
Screening showed that DA assessment software actually is
predominantly related to management and response, not to DA
Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
               RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                  ВЕКТ

                                                                                       Т




                  NEEDED: SOFTWARE FOR INDUSTRIAL
                        DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

•Open architecture (i.e., ZOPE platform)
•Free software (i.e., Python)
•Multilingual copies (English, Russian, Spanish, Portuguese,…)
•WEB-based, Intranet-compatible
•Open Data Base
•Block- module structure
•Serve as a module of risk-based asset integrity and safety
management software packages

•EXAMPLE: Software package PRIMA (Russia, pipelines, other
related geo-technical distributed critical infrastructures)
Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.
                RISK BASED MANAGEMENT OF PIPELINE INTEGRITY AND SAFETY                  ВЕКТ

                                                                                        Т



 PROPOSAL FOR UNIFICATION OF THE DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT (DA) TECHNOLOGY
       1) Agree on the procedures and methods to be used for natural and
industrial damage assessment (e.g., statistics, Monte-Carlo simulation,
etc.), when treating the problems of loss of life/limb/injury, environment
damage (air, water, land) or loss of property

     2)Create a unified damage assessment procedure, that would allow
producing data which would be statistically homogeneous and of equal
validity, consistent, non-biased, and effective

3) Continuously collect for each threat type (natural and industrial)
corresponding Unified Data Bases classified by countries, industries
(infrastructures), enterprises, types of buildings/structures and their
elements (concrete, steel, aluminum, wood, etc.), and such
 Presentation  Timashev, Science & Engineering Center, Ural Branch, RAS - WEKT, Inc.

				
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