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					  Coping with Complexity in Programme
       And Project Management

                “Can It Only Get Worse?”


                             Rusi 10th September 2008




Professor Keith Hayward
Head of Research
Royal Aeronautical Society
  Programme Complexity
Lessons from Civil Aerospace




 Too many options                     Too many partners


           Too much change from tested models?
                Disruptive and Sustaining
                     Technology (1)

Disruptive Technology – radical change to both the context and mode of
delivery of a product or process.



Sustaining technology - akin to incremental change, does not imply root and
branch alteration in behaviour nor fundamentally challenge practices and
procedures




            Each poses a different set of complexity issues
             Disruptive and Sustaining
                  Technology (2)

Disruptive
Technology                               ?
Sustaining
Technology



Disruptive
Technology



Sustaining
Technology                               ?
Disruptive and Sustaining
     Technology (3)




                        X



                     Disruptive Technology?
Networking: Sustaining or Disruptive?

                                   U2, Global Hawk
        Managing Complexity
Or perhaps better defined as managing uncertainty


If the issues relate to Sustaining Technology, spiral development
may be an answer, and achieving targets for early investment to
de-risk programmes

Disruptive Technology by definition poses more problems, “the unknown
unknowns” ?



 Does imply expenditure on assessment and evaluation
          Where to invest next?
               DTS Emerging Technologies

                     Semantic web technologies
                       Pervasive computing
            Identity management & continuous tracking
           Autonomous self-organised sensor networks
                    Human cognitive processes
           Human performance & behaviour modification
             Complex systems and systems integration
                      Brain-machine interface
                 Bio-technology & nano-medicine
                         Safer operations
                      Signature management
                      Autonomous operations
                            Biomimetics
                          Nano-materials
                       Advanced electronics
                      Smart/interactive textiles




UK Defence Technology Strategy