The 2011 Import and Export Market for New Pneumatic Rubber Tires for Cars, Station Wagons, and Racing Cars in South Africa

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					  The 2011 Import and Export
  Market for New Pneumatic
 Rubber Tires for Cars, Station
  Wagons, and Racing Cars in
         South Africa




                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)


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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                                                    Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                              7
2     SOUTH AFRICA AND THE WORLD MARKET                         9
    2.1     Imports in South Africa in 2011                     9
    2.2     Exports from South Africa in 2011                  10
3     IMPORTS IN SOUTH AFRICA                                  11
    3.1      Asia                                              11
       3.1.1    China                                          11
       3.1.2    Hong Kong                                      12
       3.1.3    Indonesia                                      13
       3.1.4    Japan                                          14
       3.1.5    Malaysia                                       15
       3.1.6    Philippines                                    16
       3.1.7    Singapore                                      17
       3.1.8    South Korea                                    18
       3.1.9    Taiwan                                         19
    3.2      Europe                                            20
       3.2.1    Czech Republic                                 20
       3.2.2    France                                         21
       3.2.3    Germany                                        22
       3.2.4    Greece                                         23
       3.2.5    Hungary                                        24
       3.2.6    Italy                                          25
       3.2.7    Poland                                         26
       3.2.8    Portugal                                       27
       3.2.9    Romania                                        28
       3.2.10 Slovenia                                         29
       3.2.11 Spain                                            30
    3.3      Latin America                                     31
       3.3.1    Argentina                                      31
    3.4      North America & the Caribbean                     32
       3.4.1    Canada                                         32
       3.4.2    the United States                              33
    3.5      the Middle East                                   34
       3.5.1    Turkey                                         34
4     EXPORTS FROM SOUTH AFRICA                                35
    4.1      Africa                                            35
       4.1.1   Botswana                                        35
       4.1.2   Cote d'Ivoire                                   36
       4.1.3   Egypt                                           37
       4.1.4   Ethiopia                                        38
       4.1.5   Kenya                                           39
       4.1.6   Madagascar                                      40
       4.1.7   Malawi                                          41
       4.1.8   Mauritius                                       42
       4.1.9   Senegal                                         43
       4.1.10 South Africa                                     44
       4.1.11 Uganda                                           45
       4.1.12 Zambia                                           46


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                                                           Contents        vi

    4.2      Asia                                                     47
       4.2.1    China                                                 47
       4.2.2    Hong Kong                                             48
       4.2.3    Japan                                                 49
       4.2.4    Malaysia                                              50
       4.2.5    Seychelles                                            51
       4.2.6    Singapore                                             52
       4.2.7    Thailand                                              53
    4.3      Europe                                                   54
       4.3.1    Austria                                               54
       4.3.2    Belgium                                               55
       4.3.3    Bosnia and Herzegovina                                56
       4.3.4    Croatia                                               57
       4.3.5    Cyprus                                                58
       4.3.6    Czech Republic                                        59
       4.3.7    Finland                                               60
       4.3.8    France                                                61
       4.3.9    Germany                                               62
       4.3.10 Greece                                                  63
       4.3.11 Ireland                                                 64
       4.3.12 Italy                                                   65
       4.3.13 Lithuania                                               66
       4.3.14 Luxembourg                                              67
       4.3.15 Macedonia                                               68
       4.3.16 Norway                                                  69
       4.3.17 Romania                                                 70
       4.3.18 Slovakia                                                71
       4.3.19 Slovenia                                                72
       4.3.20 the Netherlands                                         73
    4.4      Latin America                                            74
       4.4.1    Argentina                                             74
       4.4.2    Brazil                                                75
       4.4.3    Colombia                                              76
       4.4.4    Mexico                                                77
    4.5      North America & the Caribbean                            78
       4.5.1    Barbados                                              78
       4.5.2    the United States                                     79
    4.6      Oceana                                                   80
       4.6.1    Australia                                             80
       4.6.2    New Caledonia                                         81
       4.6.3    New Zealand                                           82
    4.7      the Middle East                                          83
       4.7.1    Pakistan                                              83
       4.7.2    Saudi Arabia                                          84
       4.7.3    Turkey                                                85
5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS          86
    5.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  86
    5.2    ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  87




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         New Pneumatic Rubber Tires for Cars, Station Wagons, and Racing Cars in South Africa     7


1      INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on new pneumatic rubber tires for
cars, station wagons, and racing cars in South Africa face a number of questions. Which
countries are supplying new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars to
South Africa? How important is South Africa compared to others in terms of the entire global
and regional market? How much do the imports of new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station
wagons, and racing cars vary from one country of origin to another in South Africa? On the
supply side, South Africa also exports new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and
racing cars. Which countries receive the most exports from South Africa? How are these exports
concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the
largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for new pneumatic rubber tires for
cars, station wagons, and racing cars in South Africa. With the globalization of this market,
managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-
of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology,
based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for new pneumatic rubber tires
for cars, station wagons, and racing cars for those countries serving South Africa via exports, or
supplying from South Africa via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key
historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where South Africa fits into the world market
for imported and exported new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars.
The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for South Africa in
particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and
projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world
market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both
demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across
each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for
each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain
maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the share that South Africa is
likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to
prioritize South Africa compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures
provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for
strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of new pneumatic rubber
tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each
major country of origin serving South Africa. A “major” market is defined as a country where
South Africa represents a substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major
country exporting to South Africa, one can thus observe how important South Africa is to that


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         New Pneumatic Rubber Tires for Cars, Station Wagons, and Racing Cars in South Africa       8

exporting country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for
exports of new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars originating from
South Africa, for each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that
South Africa has in each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of
competitiveness for South Africa. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share
values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total
picture for imports and exports of new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing
cars to and from South Africa to and from all other major countries in the world. "New Pneumatic
Rubber Tires for Cars, Station Wagons, and Racing Cars" as a category is defined in this report
following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry
using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code
that defined "new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars" is 6251 . For
more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=625 .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.




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         New Pneumatic Rubber Tires for Cars, Station Wagons, and Racing Cars in South Africa           9


2       SOUTH AFRICA AND THE WORLD MARKET
2.1         IMPORTS IN SOUTH AFRICA IN 2011
Imported New Pneumatic Rubber Tires for Cars, Station Wagons, and Racing Cars
                            in South Africa, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Japan                             1                   43,411                25.42                 25.42
Germany                           2                   28,706                16.81                 42.23
China                             3                   16,394                 9.60                 51.83
France                            4                   11,958                 7.00                 58.83
Spain                             5                   10,292                 6.03                 64.85
South Korea                       6                    9,869                 5.78                 70.63
Taiwan                            7                    8,315                 4.87                 75.50
Italy                             8                    6,852                 4.01                 79.51
Poland                            9                    6,831                 4.00                 83.51
the United States                10                    5,250                 3.07                 86.59
Czech Republic                   11                    4,145                 2.43                 89.01
Turkey                           12                    4,043                 2.37                 91.38
Indonesia                        13                    3,650                 2.14                 93.52
Malaysia                         14                    2,332                 1.37                 94.88
Portugal                         15                    1,394                 0.82                 95.70
Romania                          16                    1,176                 0.69                 96.39
Philippines                      17                      999                 0.58                 96.97
Hungary                          18                      988                 0.58                 97.55
Thailand                         19                      909                 0.53                 98.08
Singapore                        20                      874                 0.51                 98.60
Brazil                           21                      652                 0.38                 98.98
Slovenia                         22                      458                 0.27                 99.25
Argentina                        23                      364                 0.21                 99.46
Canada                           24                      339                 0.20                 99.66
Greece                           25                      306                 0.18                 99.84
Hong Kong                        26                      190                 0.11                 99.95
India                            27                       78                 0.05                 99.99
South Africa                     28                       12                 0.01                100.00
Total                                                170,787               100.00                100
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars in South Africa face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars to South Africa? How important is South Africa compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars vary from one country of origin to another in South Africa? On the supply side, South Africa also exports new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars. Which countries receive the most exports from South Africa? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars in South Africa. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars for those countries serving South Africa via exports, or supplying from South Africa via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where South Africa fits into the world market for imported and exported new pneumatic rubber tires for cars, station wagons, and racing cars. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for South Africa in particular, is estimated using a model which
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