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					     Peter D
     HART
               RESEARCH
               A SSOC I AT ES




     AFL-CIO
Post-Election Survey
        2006
      Surveys Of Voting
      Union Members
 Survey   among 810 union members nationwide (margin
  of error = ±3.5 percentage points)

 Survey   of 455 members in Senate battleground states
  (margin of error = ±4.7 percentage points)

 Survey   of 463 drop-off voters in Senate battleground
  states: voted in 2004, but not in 2002
  (margin of error = ±4.6 percentage points)

 Surveys   conducted Election Night 2006

            AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
  Members Voting For Change
 69% disapprove of Bush’s job performance.
 64% are dissatisfied with the economic
  situation in the country today.

 57% believe the decision to go to war in Iraq
  has made America less safe (27% say more safe).

 46% voted to send message of opposition to
  Bush, 10% voted to send message of support.

      AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
  Union Members’ House Vote


Republican
      26%                              Democrat
                                       74%



                                                 Previous Years
                                                        2004 2002
                                             Democrat   70% 68%
                                             Republican 30% 32%


      AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
         Union Members’ House Vote
                                          Democrats’ Advantage
                                                          Union      All
Repub-                                                   members   voters
 lican                            All voters               +48       +9
   26%
                     Democrat     White men                +39        -8
                                  White women              +53      even
                      74%
                                  White born-agains        +15       -41
                                  Weekly churchgoers       +31       -12
                                  Rural voters             +38        -2
                                  Married women            +60        -1




           AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
Union Members’ Senate Vote
(Battleground states only)

                                Demo-
 Repub-                          crat
  lican
   27%                            73%


                                          Vote among all voters
                                          in battleground states:
                                              55% Democrat
                                             45% Republican
                                             *as of 10:00 am Nov 8



  AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
          Members’ Top Voting Issues
                  Top One/Two Issues in my House Vote
  41%

 War in
  Iraq      32%
          Economy      26%       26%
          and jobs
                      Health    Social
                       care/   Security/
                     Rx drugs retirement      15%      14%     13%     11%
                                           Terrorism/ Immi-
                                           homeland gration   Taxes
                                                                      Moral
                                            security                  values


+70 Dem +68 Dem      +68 Dem +68 Dem +12 GOP +14 Dem +36 Dem +26 GOP

                AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
          Biggest Concerns About
          GOP Congress
       One/two biggest concerns about GOP candidates this year
                       Members who voted for Democrat in House race
 Cared more about political
    power than doing right                                  37%

          Rubber stamp for
             George Bush                                   36%

    Supported policies that                             32%
      hurt working people

       Tolerated corruption
            and dishonesty                       24%

Extreme positions on issues
     like stem cell research               16%

                AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
 Vote Among Drop-off Voters
  Members who voted in 2004 but not in 2002
    Democrat    Republican

                                                 79% of union drop-off
 76%                               76%           voters in battleground
                                                 states report that they
                                                 voted in 2006 elections.




         24%                              24%




House vote                      Senate vote
                             (battleground states)
       AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
           Why Drop-off Voters
           Turned Out
   One/two factors that motivated me to vote:
                                     All drop-off voters
  Send message that we                                     39%
        need a change
Support candidates who                               35%
support working people
Give children/grandkids
                                                  31%
            better future

   To give my party the                  20%
   majority in Congress
Referendum or initiative
    I felt strongly about             15%

     To help a candidate        8%
    I strongly supported
                  AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
      Unions Reached Their Members
       (% of members in battleground states saying they
           received election info from each source)

 Mail to your home                                                  80%

 Union newspaper/                                                 77%
magazine/newsletter
         Phone call                                  54%

   Workplace flyer/                            44%
          contact*
    Internet/e-mail/               23%
           Web site                                  93% say they received
        Home visit          12%                      information from at
                                                     least one source.

                       *among active members only
             AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
  Survey Among
  Working America Members

 Survey   among 832 Working America members
 Includes206 in Ohio, 205 in Pennsylvania, and
  210 in Minnesota
 Conducted   Election Night 2006




      AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
         Senate/Governor Vote Among
         Working America Members
              Ohio              Pennsylvania              Minnesota

Senate   72% Brown               73% Casey              70% Klobuchar
         28% DeWine              27% Santorum           30% Kennedy


Governor 83% Strickland          76% Rendell            61% Hatch
         17% Blackwell           24% Swann              39% Pawlenty




             AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
         Working America’s Impact
         Through The Fall
 Ohio Senate Race                         Minnesota Senate Race
                          72%                                         70%
                                              63%

   53%




   32%                                                               30%
                          28%                  27%




August 2006         Election results       August 2006          Election results

              AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
   2002 Nonvoters

 80%  of Working America members who had not
 voted in 2002 report they turned out to vote this
 year.

 Non-2002  voters supported Democratic candidates
 for Senate by 80% to 20%.

 Non-2002 voters supported Democratic House
 candidates by 77% to 23%.


        AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
         What Working America
         Members Said With Their Vote
     Most important/very important factor in my House vote:
                              All Working America members
  Improve health care                                                   70%
     coverage/access
  Clean up corruption                                              65%
       in Washington
         Protect Social                                            65%
              Security
       Protect us from                                            62%
             terrorism
Raise minimum wage/                                           61%
      create good jobs
      Major change in                                         60%
     Iraq war strategy
Tough trade policies to                                     55%
 protect American jobs
                AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
           Union Members’ Legislative
           Priorities
                                                                           Working
                      Strongly favor   Somewhat favor                      America
                                                                           members
Protect employees when
     companies bankrupt                                              96%     91%

    Require Medicare to
      negotiate Rx prices                                          94%       92%

            Reform trade
              agreements                                           94%       89%

    Health care costs for                                          93%       92%
        average families
        Guarantee health                                           93%       93%
    coverage for all kids
Strengthen protections to
        join/form unions                                           93%       77%

         Raise minimum                                             91%       87%
           wage to $7.25

                 AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
           Union Members’ Legislative
           Priorities
                            Strongly favor   Somewhat favor                  Working
                                                                             America
                                                                             members
   Require companies to                                                90%     84%
 give retirement benefits
Investment in renewable                                               87%      87%
  energy/less foreign oil
 Restore college student                                            84%        85%
             loan funding
     Increase funding for                                           84%        77%
       homeland security
   End tax loopholes for                                        76%            66%
   sending jobs overseas
    Repeal Bush tax cuts                                                       66%
        for wealthiest 1%                                     70%

 Pass Bush’s proposal to               16%                                     23%
privatize Social Security

                  AFL-CIO 2006 Post-Election Survey/Hart Research
     Peter D
     HART
               RESEARCH
               A SSOC I AT ES




     AFL-CIO
Post-Election Survey
        2006

				
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