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JUDICIAL CONCURRENCE
WITH SENTENCING GUIDELINES
July 1, 2006 – June 30, 2007
(Preliminary)
Number of Guideline Worksheets Received
FY1997 – FY2007
26093
23956 24199 24460
22927 23508
20506 20910
19368 19912
18455
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Fiscal Year
FY07 Guideline Worksheets
by Type of Primary Offense
(N=26,093)
36.4%
18.3%
10.7%
8.4%
5.6%
3.9% 3.5% 3.4%
2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5%
Drug-1/2 Larceny Fraud Traffic Assault Drug- Burg- Robbery Burg- Weapon Sexual M isc M urder Rape Kidnap
Other Dwell Other Assault
Primary Offense Conviction
GENERAL COMPLIANCE
FY07 Judicial Agreement
with Guideline Recommendations
General Compliance:
The degree to which judges agree with the overall guidelines recommendation.
Overall Compliance Rate
Direction of Departures
M itigation
Aggravation
10.0% 10.8%
M itigation
48.0%
Aggravation
52.0%
Compliance
79.2%
FY06
80%
FY07 Recommended vs. Actual Disposition
Dispositional Compliance:
The degree to which judges agree with the type of sanction recommended by the guidelines.
Actual Disposition
Recommended Probation/No Incarceration Incarceration
Disposition Incarceration <= 6 months > 6 months
Probation/No Incarceration 72.6% 23.5% 3.9%
Incarceration <= 6 months 11.2% 76.0% 12.8%
Incarceration > 6 months 5.9% 8.4% 85.7%
DEPARTURE REASONS
MOST FREQUENTLY CITED
DEPARTURE REASONS
• Mitigating (10%) • Aggravating (10.8%)
– Reason unclear – Reason unclear
– Plea agreement – Plea agreement
– Cooperative with – Flagrancy of offense
authorities – Recommendation too
– Good rehab potential low
– Minimal circumstances – Jury sentence
– Recommendation of – Poor rehab potential
Commonwealth/PO
COMPLIANCE BY CIRCUIT
Highest Compliance Rates:
Circuit 27 (Radford Area) 91%
Circuit 7 (Newport News) 86%
Circuit 28 (Bristol Area) 85%
Lowest Compliance Rates:
Circuit 29 (Buchanan Area) 64%
Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg) 71%
Compliance
VIOLENT VS. NONVIOLENT CRIMES
Percentage of FY07 Sentencing Events Involving Violent Offenders
(Current and/or Prior Violent Offenses as defined by §17.1-805)
Violent
20%
Nonviolent
80%
FY07 Violent Offender Profile
Current and/or Prior Violent Offense*
Le s s S e rio us Vio le nt P rio r
9.2%
(C a t 2)
Ins ta nt Vio le nt Offe ns e Only 5.2%
M o re S e rio us Vio le nt P rio r
3.2%
Only (C a t 1)
Ins ta nt Vio le nt Offe ns e & Le s s
1.9%
S e rio us Vio le nt P rio r (C a t 2)
Ins ta nt Vio le nt Offe ns e & M o re
0.8%
S e rio us Vio le nt P rio r (C a t 1)
*Note: Violent offenses are defined by §17.1-805. Category 1 prior violent offenses have a statutory maximum of 40 years or more while
Category 2 prior violent offenses have a statutory maximum of less than 40 years.
FY07 Compliance
Current and/or Prior Violent Offenses*
6.7 5.1 6.6
11.5 12.2 10.2
6.4 19.9
23.4 26.6 33.5 33.3
82.1
73.4
64.4 63.2 61.4 60.1
No Ins ta nt o r P rio r Le s s S e rio us Ins ta nt Vio le nt Ins ta nt Vio le nt & M o re S e rio us Ins ta nt Vio le nt &
Vio le nt Vio le nt P rio r (C a t 2) Offe ns e Le s s S e rio us Vio le nt P rio r (C a t 1) M o re S e rio us
Vio le nt P rio r (C a t 2) Vio le nt P rio r (C a t 1)
C o m plia nc e M itiga tio n Aggra va tio n
*Note: Violent offenses are defined by §17.1-805. Category 1 prior violent offenses have a statutory maximum of 40 years or more while
Category 2 prior violent offenses have a statutory maximum of less than 40 years.
COMPLIANCE BY TYPE OF OFFENSE
Guidelines Compliance by Primary Offense
FY2007
6 .3 %
10 .0 % 9 .6 % 9 .3 %
12 .4 % 12 .7% 10 .9 %
13 .4 % 12 .8 %
15.1% 15.5%
17.3 % 18 .4 % 17.5% 19 .2 %
8 .6 %
7.7% 8 .1%
5.8 %
6 .8 %
13 .4 % 15.3 % 2 2 .7%
15.3 %
15.3 % 19 .0 % 2 7.5%
14 .4 % 16 .5%
18 .5%
8 5.1%
8 2 .3 % 8 2 .3 % 8 1.8 %
79 .8 %
73 .9 %
72 .0 %
6 9 .6 % 6 8 .0 % 6 7.3 % 6 7.2 % 6 6 .0 % 6 5.5%
6 2 .3 % 6 1.7%
Fra ud Drug-1/ 2 La rc e ny Drug-Ot he r Tra ffic Assa ult Bur-Ot he r We a pon Ra pe S e xua l Assa ult Kidna p Misc Bur-Dwe ll Murde r/ Hom Robbe ry
Co mp liance M itig atio n Ag g ravatio n
Guidelines Compliance by Primary Offense
80% or higher FY2007
6 .3 %
10 .0 % 9 .6 % 9 .3 %
Rape – Mitigation (23%) 12 .4 % 12 .7% 10 .9 %
13 .4 % 12 .8 %
15.1% 15.5%
17.3 % 18 .4 % 17.5% 19 .2 %
8 .6 %
7.7% 8 .1%
5.8 %
Most frequently cited reasons: 6 .8 %
13 .4 % 15.3 % 2 2 .7%
15.3 %
•Plea agreement 15.3 % 14 .4 % 16 .5% 19 .0 %
18 .5%
2 7.5%
•Victim request
Robbery – Mitigation (28%)
Most frequently cited reasons:
8 5.1%
8 2 .3 % 8 2 .3 % 8 1.8 %
•Cooperation with law enforcement
79 .8 %
73 .9 %
72 .0 %
6 9 .6 % 6 8 .0 % 6 7.3 % 6 7.2 % 6 6 .0 % 6 5.5%
6 2 .3 %
•Plea agreement
6 1.7%
•Recommendation of Commonwealth
•Age of offender/DJJ Sentence
Fra ud Drug-1/ 2 La rc e ny Drug-Ot he r Tra ffic Assa ult Bur-Ot he r We a pon Ra pe S e xua l Assa ult Kidna p Misc Bur-Dwe ll Murde r/ Hom Robbe ry
Co mp liance M itig atio n Ag g ravatio n
NONVIOLENT RISK ASSESSMENT
NONVIOLENT RISK ASSESSMENT
• Drug, Fraud, & Larceny
• Purpose: To recommend alternative sanctions for offenders
who are statistically less likely to recidivate
Percent of Nonviolent Cases by Primary Offense T ype
FY2007
Larceny
26.4%
Drug I/II
52.5%
Fraud
15.5%
Drug Other
5.6%
Sentencing Guidelines Compliance Rates for
Nonviolent Offenders Screened with Risk Assessment
FY2007 (n=6,937)
Compliance
Number
Offense Mitigation Traditional Alternative Aggravation of Cases
Drug 6% 59% 24% 11% 3,972
83%
Fraud 8% 50% 37% 5% 1,177
87%
Larceny 9% 73% 9% 9% 1,788
82%
Cases 7% 61% 22% 10% 6,937
83%
SEX OFFENDER RISK ASSESSMENT
SEX OFFENDER RISK ASSESSMENT
• Rape & Other Sexual Assault
• Purpose:
– To extend the upper end of the guidelines recommendation
for sex offenders who are statistically more likely to
recidivate
SEX OFFENDER RISK ASSESSMENT
FY2007
Othe r S e xua l As s a ult R is k Le ve ls Rape Risk Levels
(n=490) (n=194)
M oderate Risk
M o de ra te R is k 26%
28%
No Adjustment
55%
No Adjus tm e nt
57%
High Risk
High R is k 17%
12%
Ve ry High R is k Very High Risk
3% 2%
Sentencing Guidelines Compliance Rates for
Rape Offenders by Risk Assessment Levels
FY2007 (n=194)
Compliance
Risk Number
Assessment Level Mitigation Traditional Adjusted Aggravation of Cases
No Level 24% 63% --- 13% 112
Moderate Risk 23% 60% 15% 2% 47
75%
High Risk 16% 45% 29% 10% 31
74%
Very High Risk 25% 50% 25% 0% 4
75%
Sentencing Guidelines Compliance Rates for
Other Sexual Assault Offenders by Risk Assessment Levels
FY2007 (n=490)
Compliance
Risk Number
Assessment Level Mitigation Traditional Adjusted Aggravation of Cases
No Level 13% 63% --- 24% 310
Moderate Risk 18% 57% 17% 8% 120
74%
High Risk 23% 61% 14% 2% 49
75%
Very High Risk 18% 55% 27% 0% 11
82%
JURY SENTENCING
PERCENT OF FELONY SENTENCING EVENTS
ADJUDICATED BY JURIES
FY1986 – FY2007
Parole System Truth-in-Sentencing
6.4% 6.3% 6.5%
5.8%
5.2% 5.1%
4.7%
4.2% 4.2%
3.9%
2.7%
2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5%
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
SENTENCING GUIDELINES COMPLIANCE IN
JURY VS. NON-JURY CASES
FY2007
Non-Jury Cases
Jury Cases (N=25,714)
(N=379)
Aggravation
Compliance 10%
35%
Aggravation
50% Mitigation
10%
Compliance
80%
M itigation
15%
NEW GUIDELINE OFFENSES
FY2007
NEW GUIDELINE OFFENSES
(effective 7/1/2006)
• Fraud Worksheet
– Uttering public record FRD-2535-F4
– Identity fraud, value >$200 FRD-2509-F6
– False application, public assistance FRD-2700-F5
• Traffic Worksheet
– Eluding police with endangerment REC-6624-F6
• Miscellaneous Worksheet
– Extortion, threat by letter, etc. EXT-2106-F6
– Arson, unoccupied dwelling ARS-2005-F4
– Escape from correctional facility ESC-4921-F6
• Weapons Worksheet
– Discharge firearm from vehicle WPN-5248-F5
– Possess firearm on school property WPN-5252-F6
– False statement on consent form WPN-5281-F5
IDENTITY FRAUD > $200
FY2007 (N=40)
Aggravation
M itigation 5%
8%
Compliance
87%
ELUDING POLICE WITH ENDANGERMENT
FY2007 (N=421)
Aggravation
13%
Mitigation
16%
Compliance
71%
FALSE STATEMENT ON WEAPON CONSENT FORM
FY2007 (N=66)
Aggravation
3%
M itigation
30%
Most Frequent Mitigating Reasons:
•Minimal circumstances
•Plea agreement
Compliance
•Lack of serious prior record 67%
•Recommendation of Commonwealth
SENTENCING REVOCATION REPORTS &
PROBATION VIOLATION GUIDELINES
Preliminary FY2007
Sentencing Revocation Report
For all felony violations:
•Probation
•Good Behavior
•Suspended Sentence
Number of Sentencing Revocation Reports Received by Year
FY2004 – FY2007
11362
10925
9436
8646
P re -
P ro b a t io n
Vio la t io n
G u id e lin e s
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
Number of Sentencing
Revocation Reports (SRRs)
Circuit 4 (Norfolk) +152% Received by Circuit
Technical & New Law Violations
Probation, Suspended Sentence,
Good Behavior, etc., Violations
Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg Area) +42% Current & Old Forms
Circuit 17 (Arlington) +55%
Circuit 27 (Radford Area) +43%
PROBATION VIOLATION GUIDELINES
For NON-NEW CONVICTION PROBATION Violators
FY2007
FY2007 PROBATION VIOLATION GUIDELINES
DO GUIDELINES APPLY?
(N=11,362)
Reasons Probation Violation Guidelines Do Not Apply
New Conviction
82.9
(Felony/Misd)
Not Supervised
28.1
Do Not Probation
Apply
Apply
50%
50% Parole Case 4.8
Misdemeanor
1.9
O riginal
Probation Violation Guidelines
Number of Probation Violation Guidelines Received by Year
FY2005 – FY2007
5584
4860
4643
FY2005 FY2006 FY2007
Non-New Conviction Probation Violators
by Type of Original Offense*
FY2007 (n=5,584)
Pro p erty 4 1.8
Drug 3 8 .7
Pers o n 11.9 3.4% Sex Offenders
Traffic 5.8 8.4% Other Person
Other 1.8
*Offense categories taken from “Appendix E: Offense Types” in the 3rd Edition of
the Sentencing Revocation Report & Probation Violation Guidelines manual.
Conditions Cited in Non-New Conviction Probation Violator Cases*
FY2007 (n=5,584)
Use, etc., controlled substances 55.7
Fail to follow instructions 50.0
Fail to report to PO as instructed 41.6
Abscond from supervision 37.7
Special court-imposed conditions 26.2
M ove without permission 19.9
Fail to maintain regular employment 10.9
Fail to report arrest to PO 4.0 Restitution/court costs 12%
Substance abuse treatment 6%
Use alcohol to excess 3.9 Alternative programs 3%
Report for probation 1%
Fail to allow PO to visit 0.8 Community service 1%
Sex offender restrictions 1%
Use, possess, etc., firearm 0.4
*Percentages do not total 100% because there may be multiple violations cited for each defendant.
Overall Probation Violation Guidelines
Compliance and Direction of Departures
(FY2005 – FY2008)
N = 4,643 N = 4,860 N = 5,584 N = 327
23.9% 23.5% 26.3%
46.1%
29.0% 30.2% 24.5%
19.4%
47.1% 46.3% 49.2%
34.5%
FY05 FY06 FY07 Prelim FY08
Compliance Mitigation Aggravation
Probation Violation Guidelines
Dispositional Compliance and Direction of Departures
FY2007
Actual Disposition
Recommended Disposition Probation Jail <= 12m Prison >=1y Total
Probation 40.1 43.5 16.4 1223
Jail <= 12m 17.2 68.9 13.8 1887
Prison >=1y 14.3 34.5 51.3 2357
Total 21.1 48.4 30.5 5584
Median Median
Jail Prison
Sentence Sentence
= 6 mos = 22 mos
Probation Violation Guidelines
Durational Compliance and Direction of Departures*
FY2007
Median Above Aggravation
9 mos 18.6
Compliance
49.5
Mitigation
Median Below 32.0
9 mos
*Includes cases recommended for jail or prison incarceration only.
DEPARTURE REASONS
Probation Violation Guidelines
Most Frequently Cited Departure Reasons
FY2007
Mitigation Aggravation
• 789 of 1,685 have written • 591 of 1,312 have written
departure reasons departure reasons
• Most frequently cited: • Most frequently cited:
– Progress in rehabilitating – Prior record
– Recommendation of CA/PO • 2nd/subseq revocation
– Guidelines too high – Rehabilitation
– Alternative sentence • Failed given opportunity
• Treatment • Needs rehab through jail
• Drug Court – Substance abuse problem
• Detention/Diversion – Guidelines too low
– Mental/physical health – Fail to follow instructions
– Substance abuse problem – Absconded
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