Footwear Industry Retail Scenario by blw19492

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Indian Retail Industry 2009

Description:    Indian Retail Industry – Consumer is the king

                The global retail industry has been growing at a brisk pace during the last few decades. However
                the spread of organised retailing in different countries varies depending upon the socio-economic
                factors related to the country. The opportunities for organised retailing are therefore still ripe in
                countries such as India, S. Korea, and Vietnam etc. where organised retailing is still at a nascent
                stage.

                In line with the developments in the retail industry globally, the Indian retail though largely
                dominated by the unorganised retailers has witnessed a massive transition in the last decade. Of
                the total retail sales, the food & grocery segment constitutes the major chunk. However in case of
                organised retail, the apparel & footwear segment stands as the major contributor. With varied
                segments of retailing i.e. Food & Grocery, Clothing & Footwear, Furniture & Furnishing, Jewellery,
                Beverages etc. in conjugation with the development of varied retailing formats such as
                Departmental stores, Supermarkets etc. vying for a share of the organised retailing pie, a few
                questions remain unanswered: What value propositions can different formats offer? Which is the
                most viable format for the retailer? What are the determinants of such viability? Which formats are
                the emerging ones? Which formats would be the flavour of the future? etc.

                We have identified the requirements, advantages and disadvantages associated with the organised
                as well as unorganised retailing in India. On the basis of a detailed analysis incorporating the
                experience of other retailing locations across the globe, we seek to unwind the answers to queries
                such as: Where do the unorganised retailers face competition from? In which segment they have
                been affected the most? Whether organised and unorganised retail can co-exist in the future?

                With an extensive data coverage indicative of industry’s characteristics and demand drivers (both
                demand-side and supply-side factors), we estimate the size of the Indian retail industry and the
                penetration levels of organised retail in the urban and rural Indian markets for the period FY08 -
                FY11 through the incorporation of an industry model, based on three different scenarios i.e.
                Optimistic, Most Likely and Pessimistic.

                The report highlighting the possible emerging scenarios in the Indian retail industry will not only
                help decision makers from the retailing industry but will also act as a useful guide to financial
                institutions/banks, investment agencies, regulators & policy framers, research & academic
                institutions, other national & international agencies etc. Additionally, the monthly updates (for the
                period May 2009 to April 2010) accompanying the subscription of the said report would form a
                potent tool for the subscribers to keep abreast of the happenings in the industry.



Contents:       Executive Summary

                Section I - INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
                1. Retailing – An Introduction
                1.1 Retailing Basics
                 1.1.1 Unorganised Retail
                 1.1.2 Organised Retail
                1.2 The International Retail Scenario
                 1.2.1 Stages of Evolution
                 1.2.2 Highlighting Features of Global Retailing
                 i Sizeable & Profitable Operations
                 ii Highly favoured Big- Box Formats
                 iii Regulatory Aspects

                2. The Indian Retail Scenario
                2.1 Industry Evolution
 2.1.1 Indian Retail Story – Phase of Growth
2.2 The Unorganised Retail
2.3 The Organised Retail
2.3.1 The Growth Story
2.3.2 Gauging Organized Retailing in India – A statistical Approach
2.3.3 Segmental Analysis
 i Apparel & Footwear
 ii Food & Grocery
 iii Furniture & Finishing
 iv Jewellery & Watches
 v Entertainment, Books, Sports Goods & Other Equipments
 vi Other Segments

3. Industry Characteristics
3.1 Highly Unorganised & Fragmented Industry
3.2 Linkages with the Economic Growth
3.3 The Rural-Urban Divide
3.4 Hierarchy in Retail
3.5 Emergence of Multiple Retail Formats
3.6 Long Supply Chain
3.7 Working Capital Intensive

4. Industry growth Drivers
 4.1 Demand-side Factors
 4.1.1 Rising Urbanisation
 4.1.2 Growing Consumer Class
 4.1.3 Growing Per Capita Expenditure
 4.1.4 Baby Boomer Effect
 4.1.5 Growing spread of ‘Plastic Money’
 4.1.6 Changing Face of Indian consumerism –From Necessities to Luxuries
 4.1.7 Rising Number of Nuclear Families
 4.1.7 Growing Female Working Population
 4.2 Supply-side Factors
 4.2.1 Retail Growth Through VC/ PE Route
 4.2.2 Developments in the Real Estate Scenario

Section II – ORGANISED RETAILING: AN INDEPTH ANALYSIS

5. Retail Formats – An Insight
 5.1 Major Forms of Retailing
 5.1.1 Convenience Stores
 5.1.2 Discount Stores
 5.1.3 Factory / Company Outlets
 5.1.4 Specialty Store
 5.1.5 Supermarkets
 5.1.6 Department Stores
 5.1.7 Hypermarkets
5.2 Viability of various Retail Formats
 5.2.1 Convenience Stores
 5.2.2 Department Stores
 5.2.3 Hypermarkets
 5.2.4 Speciality Store
5.3 Determinants of Retail Format Viability
 5.3.1 Average Number of Footfalls
 5.3.2 Sales Per Sq. Ft.
 5.3.3 Supply Chain Management
 i) Minimization of Wastages
 ii) Specialised Manufacturing
 iii) Reducing Chances of Stock-out
 5.3.4 Dependence on ‘Private Labels’
 5.3.5 Technological Upgradation
 5.3.6 Repeat Sales Through Loyalty programmes
 5.3.7 Advertising & Sales promotion Activities
5.4 Emerging Retail Formats
 5.4.1 Rural Retailing
 i) Benefits to the Retailers
 ii) Benefits to the Rural Populace
 5.4.2 Luxury Retailing
 5.4.3 Airport Retailing
 5.4.4 E-Retailing
 i) Convenient Shopping
 ii) Value for Money
 iii) Change in the
Consumers’ Attitude
 iv) Easy Payment Options
 v) Lack of ‘Touch & Feel’ Experience
 vi) Lack of Transparency in Transactions
 vii) Untimely Delivery of Products

6. Cost Analysis
 6.1 Unorganised Retail
 6.2 Organised Retail
 6.2.1 Procurement of Raw materials /Finished Goods
 6.2.2 Labour Expenses
 6.2.3 Selling & Distribution Expenses
 6.2.4 Rental Expenses
 6.2.5 Profit Margin

7. Licensing and Other Regulatory Aspects
 7.1 Regulatory Structure
 7.1.1 Strategic License Agreements
 7.1.2 Manufacturing
 7.1.3 Cash & Carry Wholesale Trading
7.1.4 Franchising
 i) Unit Franchisee
 ii) Multiple Franchisees
 iii) Master Franchisee
 iv) Regional Franchisee
7.2 Licensing Requirements
7.2.1 Shops & Establishment Act
7.2.2 Municipal Corporation Act
7.2.3 Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act
7.2.4 Standards of Weights and Measures Act
7.2.5 Drugs & Cosmetic Act
7.2.6 Prevention of Food Adulteration Act
7.2.7 The Competition Act
7.2.8 Liquor Licensing
7.3 Taxation Regime
7.3.1 Customs Duty
7.3.2 Duty on Export Promotion of Capital Goods (EPCG)
7.3.3 Service Tax
7.3.4 VAT

8. Organised v/s Unorganized Retailing- Death of Mom-&-Pop Stores in the Making?

9. Challenges in Organised Retailing
9.1 Real Estate and Property Related Issues
9.2 Taxation & Policy Related Hurdles
9.3 Inefficiencies in Supply Chain Management
9.4 Increased Shrinkages
9.5 Scarcity of Workforce
9.6 Entry of Foreign Players
9.7 Political & Local Agitation
9.8 Analytical Model - PORTER’S FIVE FORCE MODEL

10. Industry Outlook
10.1 Scenario Drivers
10.1.1 Pessimistic Scenario Drivers
10.1.2 Optimistic Scenario Drivers
Section III – OVERVIEW OF INDIAN PLAYERS

11. COMPANY FOCUS
I) Pantaloon Retail India Ltd. (PRIL)
II) Shoppers Stop Ltd.
III) Vishal Retail Ltd (VRL)
IV) Koutons Retail India Ltd.
V) Trent Ltd.

ANNEXURES
1. Top 250 Global Retail Companies – A Statistical Overview
2. The Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) – 2008
3. India’s Retail Hierarchy
4. List of Brands / Stores across Different Segments
5. List of Clearances Required for Retailing Operations

List of figures
Fig 1.1 Comparison of World GDP Growth & World Retail Growth (%)
Fig 1.2 Stages of Retail Growth
Fig 1.3 Top 5 Countries by Retail Sales as on 2006
Fig 1.4 Format-wise Venture of Top-250 Global Retailers
Fig 2.1 Evolution of Indian Retail
Fig 2.2 Indian Retail pie – 2003-04
Fig 2.3 Indian Retail pie – 2006-07
Fig 2.4 Share of Unorganized Retail in Total Retail
Fig 2.5 India’s Spending Pattern – FY 2007
Fig 2.6 Unorganised Retailing – Sales by Retailer Type (%) - 2006
Fig 2.7 Organised Retail – Total Revenues & % Penetration
Fig 2.8 Global Organised Retail Penetration vs. Purchasing Power- Great Room for
Improvement in India
Fig 2.9 Apparel & Footwear – Total Organized Retail and % Penetration
Fig 2.10 Food & Grocery -Total Organized Retail and % Penetration
Fig 2.11 Furniture & Furnishing -Total Organized Retail and % Penetration
Fig 2.12 Jewellery & Watches -Total Organized Retail and % Penetration
Fig 2.13 Entertainments, Books, Sports Goods & Other Equipments -Total Organized Retail and %
Penetration
Fig 2.14 Other Segments (Personal Care, Non- Institutional Healthcare and Other
Segments Beverages) -Total Organized Retail and % Penetration
Fig 2.15 Indian Organised Retail pie – 2003-04
Fig 2.16 Indian Organised Retail pie – 2006-07
Fig 3.1 Real GDP, Real PFCE & Retail Sales – CAGR for the Period 1994- 2007
Fig 4.1 Rural- Urban Population Divide
Fig 4.2 PFCE and Personal Disposable Income –Per Capita
Fig 4.3 Consumption Categorization as a % of GDP - 2005
Fig 4.4 Per Capita Monthly Expenditure - Urban
Fig 4.5 Per Capita Monthly Expenditure – Rural
Fig 4.6 Age Distribution of Indian Population
Fig 4.7 Median Age of Population
Fig 4.8 Credit Card Usage Trend
Fig 4.9 Debit Card Usage Trend
Fig 4.10 Changing Consumption Pattern – 1995 to 2025
Fig 4.11 Growth Trend of Nuclear Families
Fig 4.12 Growth Trend of Density & Population
Fig 4.13 Proportion of Female Working Population of the Total Working Population
Fig 4.14 Proportion of Female Working in Organised Industrial Activities
Fig 4.15 Total PE & VC Investments in India
Fig 4.16 Trends in Mall Development
Fig 4.17 Trends in Mall Area Occupancy
Fig 4.18 Tier-wise Distribution of Operational Mall Space
Fig 4.19 Tier-wise Distribution of Upcoming Mall Space
            Fig   4.20 Distribution of Mall Ownership
            Fig   4.21 Mall Ownership – Rental Distribution
            Fig   4.22 Expected Mall Supply: 2008-11
            Fig   5.1 High Net Worth Individual (HNI) Population Growth – 2007 (%)
            Fig   5.2 Market Share of Premium & Luxury Brands in India- US$ bn
            Fig   5.3 India- Internet Users & Penetration Level
            Fig   8.1 Adverse Impact on Unorganised Retailers by Region (%)
            Fig   8.2 Adverse Impact on Unorganised Retailers by Category (%)
            Fig   9.1 Shrinkages as a % of Total Retail Sales
            Fig   9.2 Distribution of External Shrinkages (%) – India
            Fig   9.3 Distribution of Internal Shrinkages (%) – India
            Fig   10.1 Sale of Private Labels as a % of Total Sales

            Table   index
            Table   1.1 World Retail Growth
            Table   1.2 Top 250 Retailers Split –up by Regions / Countries
            Table   1.3 Global Retailers in the Fortune 500 List - Year 2008
            Table   2.1 Total Indian Retail Revenue – Rs. Bn
            Table   2.2 Indicative Industry Growth on Reaching the Average Penetration Level
            Table   3.1 Rural – Urban Retail Sales Divide
            Table   3.2 India’s Retail Hierarchy
            Table   3.3 Net Working Capital as a % of Total Capital Employed
            Table   4.1 Income Distribution of the Households
            Table   4.2 Major Investments by VC/ PE Firms
            Table   5.1 Spread of Convenience Stores
            Table   5.2 Spread of Discount Stores
            Table   5.3 Spread of Speciality Stores
            Table   5.4 Spread of Department Stores
            Table   5.5 Spread of Hypermarkets
            Table   5.6 Comparative Margins of Various Retail Formats
            Table   5.7 Retail Formats- Characteristics
            Table   5.8 Sales Per sq.ft of Various Modern Retail Formats
            Table   5.9 Cost & Margins of Intermediaries in the Supply Chain (in Case of Potatoes)
            Table   5.10 Private Labels of Leading Indian Retailers
            Table   5.11 Loyalty Programmes of Retailers
            Table   5.12 Media-wise Advertisement Expenditure by Retailers for the Period Jan-July, 2008
            Table   5.13 Initiatives of the Modern Retailers in Rural India
            Table   5.14 Global Luxury Brands in India
            Table   5.15 JV’s in Indian Airport Retailing
            Table   6.1 Raw Material Expenditure as a % of Total Expenditure
            Table   6.2 Labour Expenditure as a % of Total Expenditure
            Table   6.3 Selling & Distribution Expenditure as a % of Total Expenditure
            Table   6.4 Rental Expenditure as a % of Total Expenditure
            Table   6.5 Sensitivity Analysis of Rental Expenditures
            Table   6.6 Gross Margins of Organised Retailers Across Various Product Categories (%)
            Table   6.7 Profit Margins of Various Players
            Table   7.1 Status of Market Reforms in Agriculture (APMC Act Amendments)
            Table   8.1 Reasons Underlying the Falling Share of Turnover of Unorganised Retailers (%)
            Table   8.2 Annual Growth in Turnover of Unorganised Retail Outlets
            Table   8.3 Annual Growth in Profit of Unorganised Retail Outlets
            Table   8.4 Distribution of Average Monthly Spending of Indian Households
            Table   8.5 Savings (as a % of Spending) from Buying at Organised Outlets by Format
            Table   10.1 FY08 Industry Estimates
            Table   10.2 FY11 Industry Estimates
            Table   10.3 Q3FY09 Performance Comparison of Various Players



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