The 2011 Import and Export Market for Propene (Propylene) in Germany

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The 2011 Import and Export Market for Propene (Propylene) in Germany Powered By Docstoc
					   The 2011 Import and Export
       Market for Propene
     (Propylene) in Germany




                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)




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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                                                 Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                           7
2     GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET                           9
    2.1     Imports in Germany in 2011                       9
    2.2     Exports from Germany in 2011                    10
3     IMPORTS IN GERMANY                                    11
    3.1      Africa                                         11
       3.1.1    Libya                                       11
    3.2      Asia                                           11
       3.2.1    South Korea                                 11
       3.2.2    Taiwan                                      12
       3.2.3    Thailand                                    12
    3.3      Europe                                         12
       3.3.1    Austria                                     12
       3.3.2    Belgium                                     13
       3.3.3    Czech Republic                              13
       3.3.4    France                                      14
       3.3.5    Greece                                      14
       3.3.6    Hungary                                     14
       3.3.7    Italy                                       15
       3.3.8    Poland                                      15
       3.3.9    Portugal                                    16
       3.3.10 Russia                                        16
       3.3.11 Serbia and Montenegro                         16
       3.3.12 Slovakia                                      17
       3.3.13 Spain                                         17
       3.3.14 the Netherlands                               17
       3.3.15 the United Kingdom                            18
       3.3.16 Ukraine                                       18
    3.4      Latin America                                  18
       3.4.1    Brazil                                      18
       3.4.2    Venezuela                                   19
    3.5      North America & the Caribbean                  19
       3.5.1    the United States                           19
    3.6      the Middle East                                20
       3.6.1    Azerbaijan                                  20
4     EXPORTS FROM GERMANY                                  21
    4.1      Africa                                         21
       4.1.1   South Africa                                 21
    4.2      Asia                                           21
       4.2.1   Malaysia                                     21
    4.3      Europe                                         22
       4.3.1   Austria                                      22
       4.3.2   Belgium                                      22
       4.3.3   France                                       23
       4.3.4   Hungary                                      23
       4.3.5   Italy                                        24
       4.3.6   Poland                                       24
       4.3.7   Spain                                        25


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                                                           Contents        vi

       4.3.8   Switzerland                                            25
       4.3.9   the Netherlands                                        26
       4.3.10 the United Kingdom                                      26
    4.4      North America & the Caribbean                            27
       4.4.1   Canada                                                 27
5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS          28
    5.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  28
    5.2    ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  29




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                                                          Propene (Propylene) in Germany        7


1      INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on propene (propylene) in
Germany face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying propene (propylene) to
Germany? How important is Germany compared to others in terms of the entire global and
regional market? How much do the imports of propene (propylene) vary from one country of
origin to another in Germany? On the supply side, Germany also exports propene (propylene).
Which countries receive the most exports from Germany? How are these exports concentrated
across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for propene (propylene) in Germany.
With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view.
Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the
fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate
the market for propene (propylene) for those countries serving Germany via exports, or supplying
from Germany via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical
indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Germany fits into the world market for
imported and exported propene (propylene). The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for Germany in particular, is estimated using a model which
aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From
there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that Germany is likely to receive this year. From
these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Germany compared to other
major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can
be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of propene (propylene),
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Germany. A
“major” market is defined as a country where Germany represents a substantially large share of
either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to Germany, one can thus observe
how important Germany is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world.
Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of propene (propylene) originating from Germany, for
each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that Germany has in
each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for Germany.
In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are
provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of


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                                                             Propene (Propylene) in Germany         8

propene (propylene) to and from Germany to and from all other major countries in the world.
"Propene (Propylene)" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the
United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade
Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "propene (propylene)" is
51112 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=511 .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.




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                                                               Propene (Propylene) in Germany           9


2       GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET
2.1         IMPORTS IN GERMANY IN 2011
                      Imported Propene (Propylene) in Germany, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
the Netherlands                   1                  309,719                26.49                 26.49
Belgium                           2                  257,092                21.99                 48.48
the United Kingdom                3                  184,093                15.75                 64.23
Spain                             4                   77,690                 6.64                 70.87
Brazil                            5                   72,279                 6.18                 77.05
Serbia and Montenegro             6                   34,518                 2.95                 80.00
Russia                            7                   33,895                 2.90                 82.90
Ukraine                           8                   29,443                 2.52                 85.42
Slovakia                          9                   29,069                 2.49                 87.91
Portugal                         10                   25,457                 2.18                 90.09
Libya                            11                   20,561                 1.76                 91.84
Czech Republic                   12                   15,118                 1.29                 93.14
Italy                            13                   14,140                 1.21                 94.35
Greece                           14                   10,528                 0.90                 95.25
France                           15                    9,998                 0.86                 96.10
Venezuela                        16                    9,922                 0.85                 96.95
South Korea                      17                    9,609                 0.82                 97.77
Taiwan                           18                    6,494                 0.56                 98.33
Hungary                          19                    6,024                 0.52                 98.84
Thailand                         20                    5,729                 0.49                 99.33
the United States                21                    4,922                 0.42                 99.75
Poland                           22                    1,434                 0.12                 99.88
Azerbaijan                       23                      999                 0.09                 99.96
Austria                          24                      443                 0.04                100.0
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on propene (propylene) in Germany face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying propene (propylene) to Germany? How important is Germany compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of propene (propylene) vary from one country of origin to another in Germany? On the supply side, Germany also exports propene (propylene). Which countries receive the most exports from Germany? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for propene (propylene) in Germany. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for propene (propylene) for those countries serving Germany via exports, or supplying from Germany via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Germany fits into the world market for imported and exported propene (propylene). The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for Germany in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a vo
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