The 2011 Import and Export Market for Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia

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					   The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Nicotine and Its
        Salts in Australia




                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)




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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                                                               Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                         6
2     AUSTRALIA AND THE WORLD MARKET                                       8
    2.1        Imports in Australia in 2011                                8
    2.2        Exports from Australia in 2011                              8
3     IMPORTS IN AUSTRALIA                                                 9
    3.1        Africa                                                      9
       3.1.1     South Africa                                              9
    3.2        Asia                                                       10
       3.2.1     China                                                    10
       3.2.2     India                                                    11
       3.2.3     Japan                                                    12
       3.2.4     Singapore                                                12
       3.2.5     Taiwan                                                   13
    3.3        Europe                                                     13
       3.3.1     Belgium                                                  13
       3.3.2     Germany                                                  14
       3.3.3     Hungary                                                  15
       3.3.4     Italy                                                    15
    3.4        North America & the Caribbean                              16
       3.4.1     the United States                                        16
4     EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA                                              17
    4.1        Asia                                                       17
       4.1.1     Hong Kong                                                17
       4.1.2     Malaysia                                                 17
       4.1.3     Singapore                                                18
       4.1.4     South Korea                                              18
       4.1.5     Thailand                                                 19
    4.2        Europe                                                     19
       4.2.1     Germany                                                  19
    4.3        Latin America                                              20
       4.3.1     Brazil                                                   20
       4.3.2     Peru                                                     20
    4.4        North America & the Caribbean                              21
       4.4.1     the United States                                        21
5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS              22
    5.1        Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  22
    5.2        ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  23




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                                                            Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia    6


1      INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on nicotine and its salts in
Australia face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying nicotine and its salts to
Australia? How important is Australia compared to others in terms of the entire global and
regional market? How much do the imports of nicotine and its salts vary from one country of
origin to another in Australia? On the supply side, Australia also exports nicotine and its salts.
Which countries receive the most exports from Australia? How are these exports concentrated
across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for nicotine and its salts in Australia.
With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view.
Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the
fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate
the market for nicotine and its salts for those countries serving Australia via exports, or supplying
from Australia via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical
indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Australia fits into the world market for
imported and exported nicotine and its salts. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for Australia in particular, is estimated using a model which
aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From
there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that Australia is likely to receive this year. From
these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Australia compared to other
major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can
be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of nicotine and its salts,
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Australia. A
“major” market is defined as a country where Australia represents a substantially large share of
either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to Australia, one can thus observe
how important Australia is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world.
Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of nicotine and its salts originating from Australia, for
each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that Australia has in
each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for Australia.
In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are
provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of


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                                                            Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia     7

nicotine and its salts to and from Australia to and from all other major countries in the world.
"Nicotine and Its Salts" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by
the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International
Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "nicotine and its
salts" is 54147 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=541 .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.




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                                                                Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia        8


2       AUSTRALIA AND THE WORLD MARKET
2.1         IMPORTS IN AUSTRALIA IN 2011
                     Imported Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)                % Share         Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
the United States                 1                    42,080                 45.07                    45.07
Japan                             2                    16,180                 17.33                    62.40
Taiwan                            3                    11,063                 11.85                    74.25
Singapore                         4                     7,108                  7.61                    81.87
India                             5                     6,672                  7.15                    89.01
China                             6                     5,027                  5.38                    94.40
Belgium                           7                     2,566                  2.75                    97.14
South Africa                      8                     1,476                  1.58                    98.73
Hungary                           9                       492                  0.53                    99.25
Germany                          10                       421                  0.45                    99.70
Italy                            11                       277                  0.30                   100.00
Total                                                  93,362                100.00                   100.00
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011, www.icongrouponline.com



2.2         EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA IN 2011
                     Nicotine and Its Salts Exports from Australia, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)                % Share         Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
the United States                  1                      741                 35.52                    35.52
Germany                            2                      503                 24.11                    59.64
Thailand                           3                      197                  9.44                    69.08
Brazil                             4                      194                  9.30                    78.38
Singapore                          5                      162                  7.77                    86.15
Hong Kong                          6                      154                  7.38                    93.53
South Korea                        7                       74                  3.55                    97.08
Malaysia                           8                       47                  2.25                    99.33
Peru                               9                       14                  0.67                   100.00
Total                                                   2,086                100.00                   100.00
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011, www.icongrouponline.com




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                                                                Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia        9


3       IMPORTS IN AUSTRALIA
3.1         AFRICA
3.1.1          South Africa
                    Nicotine and Its Salts Exports from South Africa, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)                % Share         Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Australia                          1                    1,476                 69.04                    69.04
the United States                  2                      474                 22.17                    91.21
Brazil                             3                       79                  3.70                    94.90
Germany                            4                       62                  2.90                    97.80
Saudi Arabia                       5                       47                  2.20                   100.00
Total                                                   2,138                100.00                   100.00
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011, www.icongrouponline.com




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                                                                Nicotine and Its Salts in Australia       10


3.2         ASIA
3.2.1          China
                       Nicotine and Its Salts Exports from China, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)                % Share         Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Germany                           1                     7,671                 22.97                    22.97
the United States                 2                     5,133                 15.37                    38.34
Australia                         3                     5,027                 15.05                    53.39
Austria                         
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on nicotine and its salts in Australia face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying nicotine and its salts to Australia? How important is Australia compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of nicotine and its salts vary from one country of origin to another in Australia? On the supply side, Australia also exports nicotine and its salts. Which countries receive the most exports from Australia? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for nicotine and its salts in Australia. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for nicotine and its salts for those countries serving Australia via exports, or supplying from Australia via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Australia fits into the world market for imported and exported nicotine and its salts. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for Australia in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country mar
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