The 2011 Import and Export Market for Mannitol in Italy by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Mannitol in Italy

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                            Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                      6
2     ITALY AND THE WORLD MARKET                                        8
    2.1     Imports in Italy in 2011                                    8
    2.2     Exports from Italy in 2011                                  8
3     IMPORTS IN ITALY                                                  9
    3.1      Europe                                                     9
       3.1.1   France                                                   9
       3.1.2   Germany                                                 10
       3.1.3   the Netherlands                                         10
4     EXPORTS FROM ITALY                                               11
    4.1      Africa                                                    11
       4.1.1    Morocco                                                11
    4.2      Asia                                                      11
       4.2.1    Japan                                                  11
    4.3      Europe                                                    12
       4.3.1    Austria                                                12
       4.3.2    Denmark                                                12
       4.3.3    France                                                 12
       4.3.4    Germany                                                13
       4.3.5    Greece                                                 13
       4.3.6    Poland                                                 13
       4.3.7    Romania                                                14
       4.3.8    Slovenia                                               14
       4.3.9    Spain                                                  14
       4.3.10 Switzerland                                              15
    4.4      North America & the Caribbean                             15
       4.4.1    the United States                                      15
    4.5      the Middle East                                           16
       4.5.1    Iran                                                   16
       4.5.2    Turkey                                                 16
    5.1     Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  17
    5.2     ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  18                                 ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                                           Mannitol in Italy       6

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on mannitol in Italy face a number
of questions. Which countries are supplying mannitol to Italy? How important is Italy compared
to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of
mannitol vary from one country of origin to another in Italy? On the supply side, Italy also
exports mannitol. Which countries receive the most exports from Italy? How are these exports
concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the
largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for mannitol in Italy. With the
globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can
managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have
developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for
mannitol for those countries serving Italy via exports, or supplying from Italy via imports. It does
so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Italy fits into the world market for
imported and exported mannitol. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis,
and those for Italy in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key
country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a
percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of
origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are
then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import
and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so,
we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the
share that Italy is likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow
managers to prioritize Italy compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures
provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for
strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of mannitol, Chapter 3
goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Italy. A “major” market
is defined as a country where Italy represents a substantially large share of either imports or
exports. For each major country exporting to Italy, one can thus observe how important Italy is to
that exporting country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for
exports of mannitol originating from Italy, for each major country of destination. In doing so,
one can discover the share that Italy has in each major market; this share value is often used as a
measure of competitiveness for Italy. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share
values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total
picture for imports and exports of mannitol to and from Italy to and from all other major countries
in the world. "Mannitol" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by                                                       ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                                            Mannitol in Italy       7

the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International
Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "mannitol" is 51224
. For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                       ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                                               Mannitol in Italy        8

2.1         IMPORTS IN ITALY IN 2011
                                Imported Mannitol in Italy, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
France                             1                    7,132               49.54                   49.54
the Netherlands                    2                    6,868               47.71                   97.26
Germany                            3                      395                2.74                  100.00
Total                                                  14,395              100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,

2.2         EXPORTS FROM ITALY IN 2011
                               Mannitol Exports from Italy, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Turkey                            1                     1,276               27.76                   27.76
Denmark                           2                       843               18.34                   46.10
Germany                           3                       647               14.07                   60.17
Greece                            4                       464               10.09                   70.26
Slovenia                          5                       273                5.94                   76.20
France                            6                       218                4.74                   80.94
the United States                 7                       192                4.18                   85.12
Japan                             8                       163                3.55                   88.67
Iran                              9                       146                3.18                   91.84
Spain                            10                       122                2.65                   94.50
Morocco                          11                       119                2.59                   97.09
Romania                          12                        53                1.15                   98.24
Switzerland                      13                        35                0.76                   99.00
Austria                          14                        31                0.67                   99.67
Poland                           15                        15                0.33                  100.00
Total                                                   4,597              100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                          ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                                               Mannitol in Italy        9

3.1         EUROPE
3.1.1          France
                             Mannitol Exports from France, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
the United States                 1                    12,753               20.74                   20.74
Italy                             2                     7,132               11.60                   32.34
Germany                           3                     5,568                9.06                   41.40
Spain                             4                     4,869                7.92                   49.32
the United Kingdom                5                     4,671                7.60                   56.92
Poland                            6                     2,806                4.56                   61.48
Canada                            7                     2,345                3.81                   65.30
Turkey                            8                     2,241                3.65                   68.94
the Netherlands                   9                     2,058                3.35                   72.29
Russia                           10                     2,029                3.30                   75.59
Japan                            11                     1,744                2.84                   78.43
China                            12                     1,548                2.52                   80.95
Switzerland                      13                     1,326                2.16                   83.10
India                            14                     1,225                1.99                   85.10
Sweden                           15                     1,000                1.63                   86.72
Taiwan                           16               
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