The 2011 Import and Export Market for Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes in South Africa by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
     Market for Animal and
    Vegetable Oils, Fats, and
     Waxes in South Africa

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                   Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                             7
2     SOUTH AFRICA AND THE WORLD MARKET                        9
    2.1    Imports in South Africa in 2011                     9
    2.2    Exports from South Africa in 2011                  10
3     IMPORTS IN SOUTH AFRICA                                 11
    3.1      Africa                                           11
       3.1.1    Egypt                                         11
       3.1.2    Kenya                                         12
       3.1.3    Mauritius                                     12
       3.1.4    Mozambique                                    13
       3.1.5    Namibia                                       13
       3.1.6    Nigeria                                       13
       3.1.7    Zimbabwe                                      14
    3.2      Asia                                             15
       3.2.1    India                                         15
       3.2.2    Indonesia                                     16
       3.2.3    Malaysia                                      17
       3.2.4    Singapore                                     18
       3.2.5    South Korea                                   19
       3.2.6    Taiwan                                        20
       3.2.7    Thailand                                      21
    3.3      Europe                                           22
       3.3.1    Denmark                                       22
       3.3.2    Finland                                       23
       3.3.3    Greece                                        24
       3.3.4    Ireland                                       25
       3.3.5    Italy                                         26
       3.3.6    Norway                                        27
       3.3.7    Portugal                                      28
       3.3.8    Spain                                         29
       3.3.9    Switzerland                                   30
       3.3.10 the United Kingdom                              31
    3.4      Latin America                                    32
       3.4.1    Argentina                                     32
       3.4.2    Brazil                                        33
       3.4.3    Paraguay                                      34
       3.4.4    Uruguay                                       35
    3.5      North America & the Caribbean                    36
       3.5.1    Canada                                        36
       3.5.2    the United States                             37
    3.6      Oceana                                           38
       3.6.1    Australia                                     38
       3.6.2    New Zealand                                   39
    3.7      the Middle East                                  40
       3.7.1    Iran                                          40
       3.7.2    Saudi Arabia                                  40
       3.7.3    the United Arab Emirates                      41
       3.7.4    Turkey                                        42                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                               Contents        vi

4     EXPORTS FROM SOUTH AFRICA                                           43
    4.1        Africa                                                     43
       4.1.1      Malawi                                                  43
       4.1.2      Mauritius                                               44
       4.1.3      Mozambique                                              45
       4.1.4      Tanzania                                                46
       4.1.5      Uganda                                                  47
       4.1.6      Zambia                                                  48
    4.2        Asia                                                       49
       4.2.1      China                                                   49
       4.2.2      Hong Kong                                               50
       4.2.3      Seychelles                                              51
    4.3        Europe                                                     52
       4.3.1      Cyprus                                                  52
       4.3.2      Finland                                                 53
       4.3.3      France                                                  54
    4.4        Latin America                                              55
       4.4.1      Brazil                                                  55
    4.5        the Middle East                                            56
       4.5.1      Oman                                                    56
       4.5.2      Qatar                                                   57
       4.5.3      Saudi Arabia                                            58
    5.1        Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  59
    5.2        ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  60                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                   Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes in South Africa     7

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on animal and vegetable oils, fats,
and waxes in South Africa face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying animal
and vegetable oils, fats, and waxes to South Africa? How important is South Africa compared to
others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of animal and
vegetable oils, fats, and waxes vary from one country of origin to another in South Africa? On
the supply side, South Africa also exports animal and vegetable oils, fats, and waxes. Which
countries receive the most exports from South Africa? How are these exports concentrated across
buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for animal and vegetable oils, fats,
and waxes in South Africa. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be
contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which
appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic
and trade models, to estimate the market for animal and vegetable oils, fats, and waxes for those
countries serving South Africa via exports, or supplying from South Africa via imports. It does
so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where South Africa fits into the world market
for imported and exported animal and vegetable oils, fats, and waxes. The total level of imports
and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for South Africa in particular, is estimated using a
model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current
year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served
from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side
dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market
destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are
aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood
estimates of both the value of each market and the share that South Africa is likely to receive this
year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize South Africa
compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are
forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of animal and vegetable
oils, fats, and waxes, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin
serving South Africa. A “major” market is defined as a country where South Africa represents a
substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to South
Africa, one can thus observe how important South Africa is to that exporting country compared to
other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of animal and vegetable
oils, fats, and waxes originating from South Africa, for each major country of destination. In
doing so, one can discover the share that South Africa has in each major market; this share value
is often used as a measure of competitiveness for South Africa. In all cases, the total dollar                                                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                    Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes in South Africa      8

volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters
3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of animal and vegetable oils, fats, and
waxes to and from South Africa to and from all other major countries in the world. "Animal and
Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes" as a category is defined in this report following the definition
given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard
International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined
"animal and vegetable oils, fats, and waxes" is 4      . For more information on this definition,
please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                      Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes in South Africa        9

      Imported Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes in South Africa, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank          Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Malaysia                          1                   196,662               32.07                   32.07
Brazil                            2                   126,083               20.56                   52.63
Argentina                         3                   110,873               18.08                   70.71
Indonesia                         4                    79,342               12.94                   83.65
Italy                             5                    17,833                2.91                   86.55
the United States                 6                    17,193                2.80                   89.36
Spain                             7                    13,712                2.24                   91.59
Australia                         8                    10,533                1.72                   93.31
India                             9                     6,375                1.04                   94.35
Germany                          10                     5,105                0.83                   95.18
Singapore                        11                     4,484                0.73                   95.91
the Netherlands                  12                     3,156                0.51                   96.43
Canada                           13                     2,748                0.45                   96.88
Denmark                          14                     2,515                0.41                   97.29
the United Kingdom               15                     2,258                0.37                   97.65
Belgium                          16                     1,976                0.32                   97.98
Portugal                         17                     1,954                0.32                   98.30
Greece                           18                     1,947                0.32                   98.61
Turkey                           19                     1,224                0.20                   98.81
Uruguay                          20                     1,210                0.20                   99.01
Kenya                            21                       888                0.14                   99.15
France                           22                       690                0.11                   99.27
New Zealand                      23                       645                0.11                   99.37
Norway                           24                       462                0.08                   99.45
Finland                          25                       435                0.07                   99.52
China                            26                       422                0.07                   99.59
Zimbabwe                         27                       419                0.07                   99.66
Paraguay                         28                       367                0.06                   99.72
Iran                             29                       255                0.04                   99.76
Ireland                          30                       254                0.04                   99.80
Other                            31                     1,236                0.20                  100.00
Total                                                 613,256              100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                           ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                      Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes in South Africa       10

    Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats, and Waxes Exports from South Africa, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank          Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Zambia                            1                    39,583               40.06                   40.06
Malawi                            2                    24,194               24.49                   64.55
Mozambique                        3                    14,096               14.27                   78.82
China                             4                     3,480                3.52                   82.34
France                            5                     3,252                3.29                   85.63
Saudi Arabia                      6                     3,132                3.17     
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