First Veterinary Supply

Document Sample
First Veterinary Supply Powered By Docstoc
					   The Future of Food Supply
     Veterinary Medicine:
Demand, Supply, Opportunities and
          Challenges
              Presentation by

             Dr. Lyle Vogel
   Chair of the Project Management
              Committee,
   Food Supply Veterinary Medicine
                Coalition
  Estimating FSVM Demand and
  Maintaining the Availability of
Veterinarians for Careers in FSVM

        David Andrus PhD
        Kevin Gwinner PhD
         Bruce Prince PhD
  AVMA
Veterinary
 Attitudes
  Study
   2005
     FSVMC Members
♦ Academy of Veterinary Consultants
♦ American Association of Avian
  Pathologists
♦ American Association of Bovine
  Practitioners
♦ American Association of Food Hygiene
  Veterinarians
♦ American Association of Small Ruminant
  Practitioners
♦ American Association of Swine
  Veterinarians
♦ American Veterinary Medical Association
♦ Association of American Veterinary
Mission of FSVMC
 ♦ To maintain abundant, safe and
   wholesome food by ensuring that
   veterinarians are appropriately
   involved throughout the food supply
   system.

 ♦ The premise is that foods produced
   are enhanced, both in safety and
   wholesomeness, when veterinarians
Why This Research Program?


      A shortage of FSVM
    professionals may have
  critical implications for the
    profession, employers,
   societal well-being, and
            prosperity.
Two Research Programs
(Funded by Coalition members and Bayer Animal Health)

       A series of U.S. & Canadian studies
       organized around two research
       programs:
        ♦ Career attraction and career
          retention research program
            ♦Attracting students
            ♦Retaining students and graduates

        ♦ Labor market demand research
          program
Objectives of Career Attraction and
Career Retention Research Program
  1. Identify and evaluate existing and emerging
     factors (societal and economic) affecting
     students attracted to FSVM in the United States
     and Canada.
  2. Determine how to recruit students, and develop
     and/or maintain students’ interest in FSVM
     while in US and Canadian veterinary schools.
  3. Determine factors that affect selection of
     employment by FSVM graduates in the United
     States and Canada.
  4. Determine how to retain recent graduates for
     5+ years in FSVM in the United States and
     Canada.
        Sample Design
Recruiters                            Students



             Attraction, Selection,
                   Retention



Deans
                                             Alumni

             Food Animal Faculty
Student Attraction

  ♦ Factors that determine students
    selecting a particular career
    focus in veterinary medicine
  ♦ Student expectations for FSVM
    careers
  ♦ Factors that determine making a
    lifelong commitment to FSVM
Student Attraction Findings –
Focus Groups
      Life Experiences
      Educational Debt and Salary
      Important and Interesting Work
      Family Considerations
      Job Availability
      Physical Demands of the Job
      Lifestyle Issues – Geography and Time
      Animal Care Mentality
      Experiences in Veterinary School
Student Attraction Findings –
Surveys

 Students with FSVM Interest
    Career is intellectually challenging
    Vital that job is personally meaningful
    Rural lifestyle
    Herd or flock care mentality
    FSVM allows full utilization of medical
     knowledge
    Strong mentorship valued in first job
    Believe services are valued by
     producers
Student Attraction Findings –
Surveys

 Potential strategies to attract students
   1. Student debt repayment
   2. Paid summer externships
   3. Assistance to purchase practice
      equipment
   4. Mentoring-shadowing program for high
      school students
   5. Job placement services
   6. Assigned faculty mentor
Student Attraction Findings –
Surveys

 Top reasons students indicated an
  interest in FSVM
    Rural lifestyle
    Desire to contribute to public health or
     food safety
    Career would provide a variety of
     interesting tasks
    Opportunity to work with nice,
     interesting people
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
  environment how important is the factor
  “Geographic Location”?
Extremely Important or Very Important
     Companion animal           65%               (n=452)
     Equine                     63%               (n=74)
     Food animal                84%*              (n=36)
     Mixed animal               66%               (n=88)

  *Significantly different than companion animal, equine and mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
 Question: In your opinion, when choosing a
work environment how important is the factor
“Geographic Location”?

     Geographic Location is Extremely Important or Very
                               Important


        100
                                                  84
         80
                    65             63                             66
         60
      %
         40
         20
          0
              Companion         Equine          Food           Mixed
                 Animal                       Animal*         Animal
               *Food animal significantly different than companion animal,
                                equine and mixed animal
Importance – Performance Analysis of
  Decision Factors Related to Lifetime
          Career Commitment
 (How well does a factor contribute to a
 commitment as well as how important that
       factor is to the respondent)
        Survey of 2nd and 4th year students
Importance – Performance Analysis

Importance-Performance analysis is a framework used
in consumer research to examine attribute importance
and performance.

The key idea is that knowing both the importance of
the factor and its current level of performance are
needed for informed resource allocation decisions.

The researchers applied this technique to attributes of
a veterinary career in the context of a student making a
lifetime commitment to a particular career focus.
Respondent Instructions
♦ “Please rate the importance of the following career
  goals that are critically important to you in your
  decision to make a lifetime commitment to your
  chosen occupational area.”
    Rated on a four point scale of “Very Unimportant to “Very
     Important”


♦ “Next, please rate how likely your chosen
  occupational area will allow you to attain each career
  goal listed.”
    Rated on a four point scale of “Very Unlikely” to “Very
     Likely”

 28 different career goals were assessed using this
  procedure.
       Importance – Performance
       Grid            High
                   Performance




             Possible             Keep Up The
             Overkill             Good Work
Low                                                  High
Importance                                      Importance



              Low                 Concentrate
             Priority                Here


                            Low
                        Performance
Importance – Performance Grid for Food Animal Students
         Encouraging a Lifetime Commitment
                           High
                           Performance




      Low                                           High
      Importance                               Importance
                                         Areas to concentrate




                           Low
                           Performance
Areas to Concentrate on in Encouraging A
Lifetime Commitment Among Food Animal
Students

   ♦ Having a lot of free time to spend with my
     family.
   ♦ Family leave time for childbirth or illness.
   ♦ Excellent health care benefits.
   ♦ Excellent retirement benefits.
   ♦ Very flexible work hours.
   ♦ Becoming a leading authority in my
     occupational area.
   ♦ Extensive contact with other veterinarians at
     work.
Importance – Performance Grid for Non-Food Animal Students
             Encouraging a Lifetime Commitment
                      High
                      Performance




      Low                                                       High
      Importance                                           Importance

                                    Areas to concentrate




                      Low
                      Performance
Areas to Concentrate on in Encouraging
A Lifetime Commitment Among Non-Food
Animal Students


  ♦ Having a lot of free time to spend with my
    family.
  ♦ Family leave time for childbirth or illness.
  ♦ Excellent health care benefits.
  ♦ Excellent retirement benefits.
  ♦ Flexible career path that lets me move in
    many different career directions.
Importance – Performance Analysis
            Summary
♦ Many items in the “keep up the good work” quadrant,
  and not many career factors in the “concentrate here”
  quadrant.

♦ Those areas to concentrate on for students revolve
  around
     Personal issues (e.g., flexible work hours, time
      with family)
     Benefits (e.g., retirement and health care)
     Professional issues (e.g., becoming an authority in
      occupational area, flexible career path)
♦ There is much similarity among the factors that food
  animal students and non-food animal students rated as
  important, but low performing.
♦ Differences
    ♦ Food Animal – Leading authority, contact with
      other veterinarians
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Personal issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
  environment how important is the factor “Time
  off for vacation”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal        70%*             (n=482)
     Equine                  61%              (n=70)
     Food animal             56%              (n=24)
     Mixed animal            60%              (n=79)

  *Significantly different than equine, food animal and mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Personal Issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Time Off for
Vacation”?

      Time Off For Vacation is Extremely Important or Very
                             Important


           80       70
           60                   61          58           60
         % 40
           20
            0
                 Companion Equine          Food        Mixed
                  Animal*                 Animal      Animal

                   *Significantly different than equine, food
                            animal and mixed animal
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Personal issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
  environment how important is the factor “Total
  number of hours I am required to work”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal        70%*             (n=485)
     Equine                  53%              (n=63)
     Food animal             57%              (n=24)
     Mixed animal            44%              (n=58)

  *Significantly different than equine and mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Personal Issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Total Number of
Hours I am Required to Work”?

    Total number of hours I am required to work is Extremely
                  Important or Very Important



           80      70
           60                      53              57
                                                                   44
       %   40
           20
            0
                Companion       Equine            Food           Mixed
                 Animal*                        Animal          Animal
                   *Significantly different than equine and mixed animal
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Personal issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing
 a work environment how important is the
 factor “Flexible hours”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal   52%     (n=355)
     Equine             55%     (n=63)
     Food animal        54%     (n=23)
     Mixed animal       47%     (n=62)
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Personal Issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Flexible Hours”?


    Flexible Hours are Extremely Important or Very Important


                            55          54
               52
      50                                             47
      40

   % 30
     20
      10
       0
           Companion     Equine    Food Animal Mixed Animal
             Animal
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Benefits
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
  environment how important is the factor
  “Salary”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal    75%*          (n=521)
     Equine              73%           (n=88)
     Food animal         80%*          (n=36)
     Mixed animal        65%           (n=87)

  *Significantly different than mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Benefits
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Salary”?


     Salary is Extremely Important or Very Important


          80      75                          80
                               73
                                                             65
          60
      %   40
          20
           0
               Companion     Equine          Food          Mixed
                Animal*                    Animal*        Animal

                    *Significantly different than mixed animal
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Benefits
Question: In your opinion, when choosing
 a work environment how important is the
 factor “Benefits”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal   65%     (n=452)
     Equine             63%     (n=76)
     Food animal        74%     (n=31)
     Mixed animal       59%     (n=78)
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Benefits
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Benefits”?


    Benefits are Extremely Important or Very Important


       80                            74
               65        63
       60                                        59

   %   40
       20
        0
            Companion   Equine   Food Animal Mixed Animal
             Animal
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Professional issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
  environment how important is the factor “Ability
  to use surgical knowledge and skills”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal    66%*           (n=456)
     Equine              60%            (n=60)
     Food animal         51%            (n=21)
     Mixed animal        64%*           (n=86)

  *Significantly different than equine
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Professional Issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Ability to Use
Surgical Knowledge and Skills”?

      Use of Surgical Skills is Extremely Important or
                       Very Important


         80
                  66             60                                64
         60                                       51
       % 40
         20
          0
              Companion       Equine            Food             Mixed
                Animal*                        Animal            Animal*
                          *Significantly different than equine
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Professional issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
  environment how important is the factor
  “Relationship with Colleagues”?
Extremely Important or Very important
     Companion animal        73%*             (n=510)
     Equine                  61%              (n=73)
     Food animal             50%              (n=21)
     Mixed animal            62%              (n=83)

  *Significantly different than equine, food animal and mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Professional Issues
Question: In your opinion, when choosing a work
environment how important is the factor “Relationship
with Colleagues”?

     Relationship with Colleagues is Extremely Important or
                           Very Important



          80        73
          60                       61                            62
                                                  50
        % 40
          20
           0
                Companion Equine                Food           Mixed
                  Animal*                      Animal         Animal
                  *Significantly different than equine, food animal and
                                     mixed animal
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please rank the most important factor to you
  when you choose a work environment.
Food Animal Veterinarians
    Salary                                        39%*
    Geographic location                           24%
    Contact with animals                          12%
    Time off for parental/
     family responsibilities                       12%
    Ability to use surgical knowledge
     and skills                                    7%
    Relationship with colleagues                  5%

   *Significantly different than companion animal and mixed animal
           Retention
           Surveys

To understand:
 How frequently veterinary
  students, recent graduates, and
  longer-term veterinarians
  switched occupational focus

 What factors motivated them to
  switch
 Retention Findings from Student
             Surveys
          (759 Respondents)


 Most veterinary students enter
  veterinary school knowing what
  specialty they want

 Most students do not change
   Overall, 21 percent changed
 Retention Findings from Student
     Surveys (2nd & 4th Year)

Types of switches in order of
   switching:
1. From academic career (25%)
    (7/28)
2. From mixed animal (23%)
    (35/150)
3. From equine         (22%)
    (16/74)
4. From food animal        (18%)
From–To Student Switching Analysis
  Original Area Most       Second most
  (% & number   common new common area
  who switched) area       (Of those that
                                       switched, % who
                     (Of those that
                                       selected)
                     switched, % who
                     selected)
  Food Animal        Mixed             Equine
   (18%) (n=11)      (45%)             (18%)
  Mixed animal       Companion         Government
  (23%) (n=35)       (69%)             (11%)
  Companion animal   Mixed             University
  (16%) (n=42)       (52%)             (21%)
  Equine             Companion         Mixed
  (22%) (n=16)       (50%)             (25%)
Retention Findings from Recent
Food Supply Graduates Surveys           (133
Respondents)
   93% were proud to be in FSVM area and
    liked being a food supply veterinarian
   75% had many desirable career options
   80% had attractive job alternatives outside
    of FSVM
   However, 71% did not consider leaving
    FSVM
   90% had not applied for a position outside
    FSVM in the past year
   83% indicated that they were satisfied with
Retention Findings from Recent
Graduates Surveys
  Regression Analysis Predicting Career Switching
     Those who are most likely to switch from a
      food animal veterinary medicine career:
        Desire a more balanced lifestyle between
         work and family
        Want more cultural and recreational
         activities near work
        Are less satisfied with their current
         occupation in food animal medicine
        Are less likely to be enthusiastic about their
         veterinary work and have less pride in their
         job
        Have many attractive career alternatives
Retention Findings from Recent
Graduates Surveys


    When comparing FSVM to
       other areas of the
     veterinary profession,
    veterinarians involved in
    FSVM reported a higher
     degree of satisfaction.
Retention Findings from Longer-Term
Veterinarian Surveys – Both Food and
Non-Food Supply (2,482 Respondents)
  17% (423) had changed their
   occupational area during the past 5
   years
     10% (44) of these were food animal
      veterinarians
       Of the food animal veterinarians who
        changed:
          27% (12) changed to companion animal
          25% (11) changed to government

  The main reason that the long-term
  Career Switching Analysis
   Longer-Term Veterinarians
  Original Area     Most Common New
   (Number who            Areas
     switched)        (% who selected)
Food Animal       Companion animal (27%)
(n=44)            Government (25%)

Companion Animal Industry (29%)
(n=72)           Government (29%)

Mixed Animal      Companion Animal (47%)
(n=83)            Government (22%)
Retention Findings from Long-Term
Veterinarian Surveys

   The high praise for the life of
    a food animal veterinarian as
        reported by those who
         actually perform this
     occupation explained much
       about the low amount of
   employee turnover in the food
    animal veterinary profession
Retention Findings from Long-Term
Veterinarian Surveys
  Companion animal veterinarians report
   having fewer attractive career
   opportunities and fewer desirable options
   to pursue when compared to food animal
   veterinarians.
  Companion animal veterinarians are more
   likely than food animal veterinarians to
   think their current income level is too low
   and worry more about job benefits.
  There are no differences between food and
   companion animal veterinarians thinking
   about future salary potential or having too
Retention Findings from Long-Term
Veterinarian Surveys
  In terms of job stress, companion animal
   veterinarians were more likely to feel
   burned-out, exhausted, and too fatigued
   after work when compared to food animal
   veterinarians.
  There were few major differences between
   groups on exposure to recreational and
   cultural activities, affordable housing, and
   career opportunities for spouses.
  Food animal and companion animal
   veterinarians experienced no differences
   between balancing work and family, or
Retention Findings from Long-Term
Veterinarian Surveys
  Regression Analysis Predicting Career Switching
     Those who are most likely to switch from a
      food animal veterinary medicine career:
        Desire a more balanced lifestyle between
         work and family
        Are less satisfied with their current
         occupation in food animal medicine
        Are less likely to be enthusiastic about their
         veterinary work and have less pride in their
         job
        Have many attractive career alternatives
         within veterinary medicine
        Experience more stress and burnout in their
         current job
        Desire more income and want to charge
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Question: In the future, would you consider
  changing your focus of employment in
  veterinary medicine?
Yes
     Companion animal                32%     (n=232)
     Equine                          31%     (n=39)
     Food animal                     56%*    (n=26)
     Mixed animal                    49%*    (n=71)

  * Significantly different from companion animal and equine
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Which type(s) of employment
  might you consider switching to in the
  future?
26 Food Animal Veterinarians:
 Industry/Commercial 62%           (n=16)
 Government             58%        (n=15)
 Academia               38%        (n=10)
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Which type(s) of employment
  might you consider switching to in the
  future?
70 Mixed Animal Veterinarians:
 Industry/Commercial 49%           (n=34)
 Government             47%        (n=33)
 Academia               43%        (n=30)
 Companion animal       30%        (n=21)
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: How satisfied are you with your
 current veterinary personal income?
Extremely Satisfied or Very Satisfied
     Companion animal                    40%               (n=292)
     Equine                              36%               (n=45)
     Food animal                         41%               (n=19)
     Mixed animal                        24%*              (n=35)

  * Significantly different from companion animal, equine, and food animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: How satisfied are you with your
current veterinary personal income?


    Extremely Satisfied or Very Satisfied with Income


          60

          40       40                             41
                                   36
      %                                                           24
          20

           0
               Companion        Equine           Food           Mixed
                 Animal                         Animal         Animal*
                *Significantly different than companion animal, equine and
                              food animal and mixed animal
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Question: If you were to break down a typical
 day, out of 24 hours, how many hours a day
 would you spend on the activity “Family (time
 with spouse/significant other, child care, elderly
 care)”?
                             Mean
     Companion animal       3.24
     Equine                 3.02
     Food animal            3.30
     Mixed animal           3.18
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: If you were to break down a typical day, out of
24 hours, how many hours a day would you spend on the
activity “Family (time with spouse/significant other, child
care, elderly care)”?


      Mean Hours Spent on Family Activity


           4
                 3.24       3.02       3.3        3.18
           3
 Hours 2
           1
           0
               Companion   Equine   Food Animal   Mixed
                 Animal                           Animal
     AVMA Veterinary
   Attitudes Study 2005
Question: If you were to break down a typical
 day, out of 24 hours, how many hours a day
 would you spend on the activity “Work (time at
 work, commuting)”
                             Mean
     Companion animal                         9.83
     Equine                                   10.73*
     Food animal                              10.04
     Mixed animal                             10.10

  * Significantly different than companion animal, food animal and mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: If you were to break down a typical day, out of
24 hours, how many hours a day would you spend on the
activity “Work (time at work, commuting)”?



            Mean Hours Spent at Work


              15
              10      9.83 10.73 10.04 10.1
     Hours
                5
                0
                    Companion Equine*               Food          Mixed
                     Animal                       Animal         Animal
                      *Significantly different than companion animal, food
                                   animal and mixed animal
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of
  agreement or disagreement with the statement
  “I am satisfied with my work/life balance”.
Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat
     Companion animal               63%*                 (n=446)
     Equine                         52%                  (n=65)
     Food animal                    64%**                (n=29)
     Mixed animal                   46%                  (n=63)

  *Significantly different from equine and mixed animal
  **Significantly different from mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or
disagreement with the statement “I am satisfied with my
work/life balance”.


   Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That I Am Satisfied with
                         Work/Life Balance



          80
                   63                                  64
          60                         52                                      46
        % 40
          20
           0
                Companion         Equine             Food              Mixed
                 Animal*                          Animal**           Animal*
                   * S ignif icantly dif f erent than equine and mixed animal.
                        * * S ignif icantly dif f erent than mixed animal.
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of
  agreement or disagreement with the statement
  “I have enough money to live comfortably at
  this time”.
Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat
     Companion animal               75%*                 (n=536)
     Equine                         74%                  (n=92)
     Food animal                    60%                  (n=27)
     Mixed animal                   66%                  (n=91)

  *Significantly different from food animal and mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or
disagreement with the statement “I have enough money to
live comfortably at this time”.


      Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That I Have
           Enough Money to Live Comfortably


        80       75                 74
                                                       60                 66
        60
      % 40
        20
         0
             Companion          Equine               Food              Mixed
               Animal*                              Animal             Animal
                * S ignif icantly dif f erent than f ood animal and mixed animal
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of
  agreement or disagreement with the statement
  “I feel my compensation for my position is
  adequate”.
Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat
     Companion animal                58%*     (n=411)
     Equine                          56%      (n=70)
     Food animal                     58%      (n=26)
     Mixed animal                    46%      (n=64)

  *Significantly different from mixed animal
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or
disagreement with the statement “I feel my compensation
for my position is adequate”.


          Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That
                 Compensation is Adequate


          60       58           56               58
                                                                   46
          40
      %
          20
            0
                Companion     Equine           Food            Mixed
                 Animal*                      Animal          Animal
                      *Significantly different than mixed animal
    AVMA Veterinary
  Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of
 agreement or disagreement with the
 statement “I am concerned about having
 enough money for retirement”.
Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat
     Companion animal   88%    (n=620)
     Equine             86%    (n=106)
     Food animal        77%    (n=33)
     Mixed animal       83%    (n=114)
AVMA Veterinary Attitudes Study 2005
Question: Please indicate your level of agreement or
disagreement with the statement “I am concerned about
having enough money for retirement”.


    Agree Strongly or Agree Somewhat That I Am
        Concerned About Money for Retirement


        100      88        86
                                    77       83

    %    50


          0
              Companion   Equine   Food     Mixed
               Animal              Animal   Animal
   Labor Market Demand
      Research Goals
♦ Identification of the key economic,
  demographic, technological, and
  societal factors influencing the
  future demand for FSVM
  professionals.
♦ Forecast percentage change of
  FSVM professionals needed for
  short, medium, and long range time
  horizons.
♦ Identify variables affecting the
           Demand Study
13 Delphi forecasting panels - each focused on
different FSVM sector:
 Academic
 Industrial (pharmaceutical)
 Government:
    State and Provincial
    Federal
        Public Health
        Animal Health
        Food Safety & Security
    Canadian Federal
 Private Practice areas:
    Dairy, Swine, Poultry, Beef, Mixed-Food Animal in rural
     areas, & Small Ruminants
A Changing Larger Context

 ♦ Food supply veterinarians live in a
   changing professional context:
   The emerging context requires a
    “judgmental” or expert-driven
    forecasting method
 ♦ The Delphi Forecasting process:
   Panels of experts focus on different
    FSVM sectors (e.g., beef, academe,
    government, etc.)
   Panels have 15-25 nominated experts
Delphi Method Assumptions
 ♦ The future emerges from both:
    Fixed, continuing trends we must adapt to -
     BUT also
    Changeable trends that can be managed &
     changed
 ♦ Effective solutions requires knowing the
   “why” as well as the numbers:
    Why provides “leverage points” to be managed
 ♦ Expert-driven - but there are no perfect
   “experts”
    The Delphi “process” is a learning process
Delphi Process (continued)
 ♦ Panel members learn & get smarter by:
    Hearing the “what & why” of others’ views
    Re-thinking & changing views without
     “groupthink”
 ♦ Three-round forecasting process:
    1st survey: Demand & supply trends, demand &
     shortage/surplus forecasts
    2nd survey & feedback report: Averages & mid-
     50%; why some forecasted higher vs. lower
     numbers
      ♦ Re-consider & revise ratings as merited
                                              nd
      Key Questions
 What issues & trends are driving
  the future demand in the FSVM
  profession?
 What is the future demand for
  food supply DVMs?
 What trends & issues are driving
  the future supply of DVMs in food
  supply careers?
 Will there be a future shortage or
  surplus?
The Top Five Issues
Increasing Future Demand
 1. Public concerns over food safety
 2. Zoonotic disease-related human
    health concerns
 3. Growing need to track animals
    entering the food chain
 4. Public concerns over bio-terrorism
    threats
 5. Increasing concerns for animal
    welfare
Top Five Issues/Trends
Decreasing Future Demand
 1.   Curtailment of government support of veterinary
      services
 2.   Lack of veterinarian’s practice management &
      business skill
 3.   Federal and state or provincial budgetary
      constraints
 4.   Client concerns about veterinary service costs
 5.   Slow adoption of new technologies by
      veterinarians

 The “Move to larger sized producer operations”
    trend produced high disagreement within panels.

       Is demand increasing or decreasing in each
      sector?
Non-Gov’t Areas Future Demand:
Fall 2004 to Fall 2016
   Means and SD (%):
    Poultry:           +4.1%    (SD=4.3)
    Small Ruminants:   +7.5%    (SD=5.0)
    Beef:              +7.7%    (SD=12.0)
    Dairy:             +8.3%    (SD=13.8)
    Swine:             +10.0%   (SD=12.9)
    Mixed:             +10.7%   (SD=17.2)
    Academia:          +12.6%   (SD=10.4)
    Industrial:        +12.8%   (SD=8.5)
Government Area Future
Demand:
Fall 2004 to Fall 2016
 Federal, Canadian:         +15.4%
     (SD=6.0)
 Federal-Animal Health:     +16.3%
     (SD=8.6)
 Federal-Public Health: +16.8%
     (SD=14.5)
 Federal-Food Safety
  & Security:            +17.5%
     (SD=12.8)
 State or Provincial
  Government:                +20.8%
     (SD=15.6)
Top Five Issues Limiting DVM
Supply
  Less emphasis on food animal practice in
   veterinary colleges
  Little exposure to food supply career
   options in college
  Poor income opportunities in food supply
   careers
  Lack of spousal career options in rural
   areas
  Lack of positive role models

     Given supply & demand: Will there be
Non-Gov’t Areas Future
Shortages:
Fall 2004 to Fall 2016
   Means and SD (%):
    Poultry:         -0.06%    (SD=1.0)
    Small Ruminants: -2.2%     (SD=1.4)
    Industrial:      -3.3%     (SD=3.8)
    Dairy:           -3.8%     (SD=3.2)
    Swine:           -4.4%     (SD=2.7)
    Beef:            -5.4%     (SD=5.5)
    Academia:        -5.5%     (SD=4.0)
    Mixed-Food Animal:    -6.6%
        (SD=5.0)
Government Area Future
Shortages:
Fall 2004 to Fall 2016
    State or Provincial
     Government:              -4.9%
        (SD=4.8)
    Federal-Public Health: -5.2%
        (SD=3.8)
    Federal, Canadian: -5.5%      (SD=3.6)
    Federal-Food Safety
     & Security:         -6.6%     (SD=6.0)
    Federal-Animal
     Health:             -6.9%     (SD=5.2)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 (Available for each sector http://www.avma.org/public_health/fsvmc/fsvmc_toc.asp)
                                  Opportunities
                                  (Actionable)
                                                        Sustain,
                Eliminate                             Complement &
                & Counter                               Enhance


  Demand                                                               Demand
Constraining                                                          Enhancing
  Factors                                                              Factors

                 Manage                                 Appreciate
                 Around



                               Fixed Constraints
                               (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Beef Sector                        Opportunities
                                    (Actionable)
                                                 Large Producer
                Business Skills &             Practice Opportunities
                Use of Technology
                                               Regulatory & Cattle
               Business & Economic              Industry Trends
                      Trends
  Demand                                                                Demand
Constraining                                                           Enhancing
  Factors                                                               Factors

         Government Budgetary                   Larger Societal Concerns
              Constraints



                               Fixed Constraints
                               (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Dairy Sector                      Opportunities
                                   (Actionable)
               Business Skills &             Serving Large Producer
               Use of Technology                      Needs

               Dairy Industry &                Filling Regulatory
                  Economic                          Mandates
  Demand            Trends                                              Demand
Constraining                                                           Enhancing
  Factors                                                               Factors


           Government Budgets &                    Societal Concerns
         Business & Economic Trends


                              Fixed Constraints
                              (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Mixed Food Animal Sector
              Opportunities
                                    (Actionable)
                                             Certifications & Monitoring Roles
                Business Skill &
                                              Specialized Technical Expertise
                Use of Technology
                                                       Broad Expertise
               Business & Economic
  Demand              Trends                                              Demand
                                                   Serving Part-Time Farmers
Constraining                                                             Enhancing
  Factors                                          Drug Regulations       Factors


                                            Food Export Opportunities
       Government Budgetary Constraints
                                             Larger Societal Concerns
                              Fixed Constraints
                              (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Swine Sector                     Opportunities
                                  (Actionable)
                                            Certifications & Auditing Needs
       New DVMs Training for Large
           Producer Operations               Specialized Technical Expertise
     Business Skill & Use of Technology
                                               Regulatory Requirements
  Demand                                                               Demand
Constraining                                                          Enhancing
  Factors                                                              Factors
          Swine Industry Consolidation     Food Export Requirements
                & Cost Pressure

       Government Budgetary Constraints    Larger Societal Concerns

                               Fixed Constraints
                               (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Poultry Sector                    Opportunities
                                   (Actionable)

               Business Skills &                   Auditing & Certification
               Use of Technology                        Opportunities


  Demand                                                              Demand
Constraining                                                         Enhancing
  Factors                                       Regulatory RequirementsFactors
         Larger Business & Economic
                   Trends                  Export Market Access & Regulations

       Fewer Drug Oversight Restrictions       Larger Societal Concerns
       Government Budgetary Constraints
                               Fixed Constraints
                               (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Small Ruminants Sector
               Opportunities
                                   (Actionable)
                                            Niche Marketing Opportunities
               Business Skills &
               Use of Technology            Specialized Technical Expertise

                                            Auditing & Certification Needs
  Demand                                                             Demand
Constraining                                                        Enhancing
  Factors                                      Regulatory RequirementsFactors
        Cost Pressure & Market Volatility

       Government Budgetary Constraints        Larger Societal Concerns

       Urbanization & Loss of Farm Land
                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 State/Provincial Government
 Sector       Opportunities
               (Actionable)
                                              Certifications &
                Weak Business Skill           Monitoring Roles
               Cost Pressure & Labor         Food Regulations &
                Substitution Trends           Integration Team
                                                  Solutions
  Demand                                                            Demand
Constraining                                                       Enhancing
  Factors                                                           Factors
               Government
          Jurisdictional Changes        Agro-Security & Bio-Terrorism Threats

          Government Budgetary                Larger Societal Concerns
               Constraints

                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Demand
 Federal Government Sector
            Opportunities
                                   (Actionable)
                                             Specialized Technical
               Weak Business Skill &        Services & Certifications
                Use of Technology
                                                 Regulatory &
               Cost Pressure & Labor          Global Food System
                Substitution Trends
  Demand                                                                 Demand
Constraining                                                            Enhancing
  Factors                                                                Factors

                                           Animal-Human Health Concerns
          Government Budgetary                  Food Safety Concerns
               Constraints               Bio-Security/Agro-Terrorism Concerns
                                               Animal Welfare Concerns
                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 (Available for each sector
 http://www.avma.org/public_health/fsvmc/fsvmc_toc.asp)
                             Opportunities
                             (Actionable)
                                                 Sustain,
               Eliminate                       Complement &
               & Counter                         Enhance


  Supply                                                       Supply
Constraining                                                  Enhancing
  Factors                                                      Factors

               Manage                           Appreciate
               Around



                           Fixed Constraints
                           (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Beef Sector                      Opportunities
                                  (Actionable)
         Non-FSVM Focus in CVM
       Negative Views of FSVM Careers       Centers of Excellence
            Negative Role Models
                 Student Debt                   Mentoring &
             Work Requirements              Recruitment Initiatives
  Supply                                                               Supply
Constraining                                                          Enhancing
  Factors                                                              Factors
             Gender Dynamics

     Rural Economic/Social Constraints

     Government Budgetary Constraints

                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Dairy Sector                     Opportunities
                                  (Actionable)
            Non-FSVM Focus in CVM
               Poor Role Models
              Emergency Call Work             Targeted Recruitment
                                                   Initiatives
                 Student Debt
  Supply                                                                Supply
Constraining                                                           Enhancing
  Factors                                                               Factors
             Gender Dynamics
                                                  Improving Salaries
     Rural Economic/Social Constraints


                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Mixed Food Animal Sector
              Opportunities
                                    (Actionable)
              Non-FSVM Focus &              Government Public Service
            Student Selection in CVM                 Initiatives
             Ineffective Role Models           Marketing Initiatives
                                            Student Selection Initiatives
               Work Requirements           Serving Small Animal Clients
  Supply         Student Debt                  Income Opportunities       Supply
Constraining                                                          Enhancing
  Factors                                          Debt Assistance
                                                                       Factors
             Gender Dynamics

           Expected Retirements

     Rural Economic/Social Constraints

                                  Fixed Constraints
                                  (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Swine Sector                    Opportunities
                                 (Actionable)
           Veterinary College Student     Government Public Service
          Selection & Non-FSVM Focus               Initiatives
                                             Marketing Initiatives
             Ineffective Role Models      Student Selection Initiatives
                                         Serving Small Animal Clients
  Supply        Practice Modes               Income Opportunities       Supply
                 Student Debt
Constraining                                                        Enhancing
  Factors Post-DVM Education                     Debt Assistance
                                                                     Factors
              Requirements
             Gender Dynamics
            Physical Demands
     Rural Economic/Social Constraints
    Governmental Budgetary Constraints
                               Fixed Constraints
                               (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Poultry Sector                   Opportunities
                                  (Actionable)
             CVM Student Selection        FSVM Externship & Mentoring
              & Non-FSVM Focus                    Initiatives

              Negative Role Models          Good Income Opportunities

  Supply      Practice Modes                                       Supply
               Student Debt
Constraining                                                      Enhancing
  Factors Gender Dynamics                                          Factors

     Rural Economic/Social Constraints

    Governmental Budgetary Constraints


                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Small Ruminants Sector
               Opportunities
                                    (Actionable)
          Veterinary College Student        FSVM Externship & Mentoring
         Selection & Non-FSVM Focus                 Initiatives

               Ineffective Role Models        Good Income Opportunities

  Supply           Practice Modes                                      Supply
                    Student Debt
Constraining                                                          Enhancing
  Factors                                                              Factors
      Post-DVM Education Requirements
              Physical Demands
            Near-Term Retirements                   Gender Dynamics
      Rural Economic/Social Constraints
                                               Lighter Physical Demands
                                Fixed Constraints
                                (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 State/Provincial Government
 Sector Selection Opportunities
    CVM Student   (Actionable)
         & Non-FSVM Focus
                                              Targeted Recruitment
        Ineffective Role Models                    Initiatives

 Student Debt & Perceive Low Incomes           Work/Life Balance
  Supply                                                              Supply
Constraining                                                         Enhancing
  Factors                                                             Factors
          Limited CVM Capacity

     Rural Economic/Social Constraints         Gender Dynamics

     Government Budgetary Constraints

                                  Fixed Constraints
                                  (Not Actionable)
 Planning Matrix - Supply
 Federal Government Sector
            Opportunities
                                    (Actionable)
          CVM Non-FSVM Focus
                                               Structure of Career
          Ineffective Role Models                  Opportunity

               Student Debt                    Debt Forgiveness
  Supply                                          Initiatives         Supply
Constraining                                                         Enhancing
  Factors                                                             Factors
          Limited CVM Capacity
                                          Expected Near-Term Retirement
     Government Budgetary Constraints
                                              Income Opportunities
  Rural Economic/Social Constraints

                               Fixed Constraints
                               (Not Actionable)
Delphi Panels Rating of
Possible Solutions (7-point scale)
 1. Student debt repayment and
    scholarship programs   (Mean 5.3,
    SD=1.6)
 2. Involving food supply practitioners
    in training veterinary students
     (4.8, SD=1.4)
 3. Mentoring for students and new
    FSVM veterinarians      (4.6, SD=1.5)
 4. Appoint more FSVM faculty (4.6,
Delphi Panels Rating of
Possible Solutions (7-point scale)
 5. Expanded postgraduate fellowships
    in FSVM        (Mean 4.6, SD=1.7)
 6. Paid externship requirement in
    FSVM during the summer        (4.4,
    SD=1.6)
 7. Expand the concept of Centers of
    Excellence      (4.4, SD=1.6)
 8. Marketing campaigns to increase
    awareness of FSVM career and
    lifestyle (4.4, SD=1.6)
Delphi Panels Rating of
Possible Solutions (7-point scale)
 9. Expanded paid work-study programs
     during the final year of veterinary school
                        (Mean 4.4, SD=1.6)
 10. Expanded job placement services in
     FSVM areas (4.4, SD=1.6)
 11. Focused recruitment of high school and
     college students with FSVM interests
       (4.3, SD=1.6)
 12. Reserve veterinary school slots for
     academically qualified students with
     FSVM interests                (4.3, SD=1.7)
Delphi Panels Rating of
Possible Solutions (7-point scale)
 13.Increased focus of FSVM coverage
    early during the veterinary
    curriculum          (Mean 4.2,
    SD=1.6)
 14.Development of a government-
    supported reserve corps of food
    supply veterinarians(3.8, SD=1.8)
 15.Expanded business and practice
    management in veterinary
Delphi Panels Rating of
Possible Solutions (7-point scale)
 16.Focused recruitment of women
    students into FSVM (Mean 3.4,
    SD=1.5)
 17.Providing guidance on best business
    practices guidance for FSVM
    enterprises    (3.4, SD=1.6)
 18.Subsidized consulting in business
    and practice management for FSVM
     (3.2, SD=1.6)
Authors Summary Statements
  The food supply veterinarian is not an endangered
   species! There will be an increasing demand for
   food supply veterinarians.

  For several Delphi panels, such as those focused
   on the mixed food animal, beef cattle, and dairy
   sectors, there is sharp disagreement among
   experts on what future demand will look like.

  Analysis of the competing rationales underscored
   that the actual demand changes are very much a
   function of the strategic actions pursued by the
   FSVM profession in the near term.
Authors Summary Statements
  The forecasts are conservative in nature
   because the panels assumed a continuation
   of emerging trends with no intervening
   catastrophic events.

  Colleges of veterinary medicine need to be
   a central focus, but not the only focus, in
   any resulting strategic action.
    Selection of students likely to be attracted to
     FSVM
    Education and positive signals given to students
    Adequate numbers of academic food supply
Authors Summary Statements
  Need external resources including both
   industry and government sponsorship
  Need mentoring initiatives for students and
   new graduates starting their careers
  Many of the trends and issues shaping the
   future of the food supply veterinary
   profession are created by choices within
   the profession. These can be thoughtfully
   reviewed and revised.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R1. Colleges of veterinary medicine
    should target students from rural
    areas that have had a significant
    food production experience.
 R2. Colleges of veterinary medicine
    should target students that major in
    the biological sciences and
    agricultural areas during their
    undergraduate career.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R3. Students that concentrate in food
  animal medicine should participate in
  a paid summer externship in practice,
  industry, or the government sector.
 R4. Professional veterinary medical
  associations should enact formal
  mentoring programs among their
  membership aimed at high school
  students.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R5. Students that display an interest in food
  animal medicine need to be told about the
  positive aspects of the career and lifestyle
  of food animal medicine in a variety of
  promotional materials.
 R6. The career satisfaction results of the
  study should be broadly publicized to
  ensure that faculty, students, and other
  constituents that may influence a student’s
  career choice are informed of actual job
  perceptions.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R7. Students that specialize in food
  animal medicine should receive
  financial assistance in the form of
  tuition relief for each year that they
  work in this occupational area in an
  underserved area of their state as
  well as low interest loans or grants to
  cover the costs of start-up
  equipment.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R8. Veterinary students should receive
  greater exposure to the benefits of careers
  in food animal veterinary medicine. This
  exposure should include paid summer
  externship opportunities, increased
  numbers of food animal faculty, treatment
  of food animals in the first semester of
  veterinary college, increased numbers of
  food animal courses, orientation sessions
  focused on food animal careers, and further
  study into creating regional centers of
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R9. Veterinary students in food animal medicine
   should receive career selection assistance through
   assigned, enthusiastic faculty role models and
   dedicated job placement services.

 R10. Professional veterinary associations should
   actively promote the benefits of a food animal
   veterinary career to all constituencies with an
   emphasis on how careers in this area provide
   meaningful work of importance to the nation and
   society, allow one to fully utilize their medical
   training, and provide opportunities to lead a life
   that adequately balances the demands of work and
   family.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R11. Colleges of veterinary medicine should
   consider early admissions programs for students
   interested in food animal medicine, reserved
   admission slots for those planning to enter food
   animal medicine careers, and explore the benefits
   of increased specialization provided by placing
   students into substantive curriculum tracks.

 R12. Professional veterinary medical associations
   should establish formal programs that get their
   members involved with high school students,
   either in group presentations or one-on-one
   mentoring, in order to provide early food animal
   career exposure to potential students prior to
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R13. We recommend that positive food
  animal practitioners serve as guest
  lecturers and visiting adjunct faculty
  to inform students and faculty about
  careers in food animal medicine.
 R14. Continuing education certificates
  in business management and
  pharmacology should be awarded to
  those who complete a series of short
  courses on these topics at colleges of
  veterinary medicine.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R15. Enthusiastic food animal faculty
  should be recruited and rewarded to
  serve as role models and mentors for
  students interested in food animal
  careers.
 R16. Debt relief legislation, similar to
  the national legislation, for food
  animal veterinarians should be
  pursued at the state level, where it is
  not at present.
Authors Recommendations to
Increase the Supply of Food
Animal Students
 R17. The number and dollar amounts of
  scholarships targeted toward food
  animal students should be increased.

 R18. Colleges of veterinary medicine
  should consider adding admissions
  criteria that are favorable toward
  students interested in food animal
  veterinary medicine careers.
Authors Summary thoughts
 “Continuing  shortages have the
 potential to lead to
 catastrophic economic and
 human health problems for the
 US and Canada. There are too
 many historical examples to
 reach any other conclusions”.
                     Drs. Andrus, Prince
 & Gwinner
Conclusions

  Once a FSVM career is chosen it is
   and continues to be a very rewarding
   and fulfilling life long career.
  The sectors of FSVM that are
   different than private practice are
   demanding greater numbers of
   veterinary professionals and colleges
   and schools of veterinary medicine
   must redesign their curricula to adapt
   to this change
Conclusions

  This study is the strongest indication
   to date that proactive change by all
   sectors of the veterinary profession
   can manage the evolving demands of
   emerging FSVM careers.
  More role models, especially in our
   colleges and schools of veterinary
   medicine, are necessary to drive
   proper enthusiasm for these exciting
   and rewarding FSVM careers.
Next Steps
Discussion
Debate
Consensus
Action
Numbers of Veterinarians
AVMA Membership Directory
  10000
   8000
   6000
   4000
   2000
       0
           2

               7

                       2

                           7

                                    2

                                          3

                                                4

                                                      5

                                                             6
       8

               8

                   9

                           9

                                  0

                                        0

                                              0

                                                     0

                                                          0
      9

               9

                   9

                           9

                                 0

                                        0

                                              0

                                                    0

                                                          0
     1

           1

                   1

                       1

                                2

                                      2

                                            2

                                                  2

                                                         2
    Mixed-Mixed Large          Large Animal       Bovine E xclusive
Numbers of Veterinary Graduates
Entering Private Practice

   150

   100

    50

       0
       4


               7


                       0


                               3


                                       6


                                               0


                                                       3


                                                               6
    8


           8


                    9


                           9


                                   9


                                           0


                                                   0


                                                           0
               Mixed
   9


           9


                   9


                           9


                                   9


                                           0


                                                   0


                                                           0
   1


           1


                   1


                           1


                                   1


                                           2


                                                   2


                                                           2
               Large Animal E xclusive
               Large Animal P redominant
               Large Animal E xclusive plus P redominant
Numbers of Food Animals


              70
              60
              50
   Millions




              40
              30
              20
              10
               0
                   1965         1996   1997    2005      2006

               Cattle on Feed     Milk Cows   Hogs and P igs
Professional Income
Private Practice Mean Trends
           $160,000

           $140,000

           $120,000

           $100,000
  LAE
            $80,000
  LAP

  MIX       $60,000

  SAP
                                                                All
            $40,000
                                                            +78.6%
  SAE
            $20,000                                          95-05
  Equine
                $0
                      1993   1995   1997   1999   2001       2003        2005

                                                  2007 Economic Report-Preliminary
Starting Salary
Private Practice Mean


          $70,000


          $60,000


          $50,000


          $40,000


          $30,000


          $20,000
   1996
   2004
          $10,000
   2005
   2006       $0
                    TOTAL   LAE   LAP   MIX   SAP    SAE     EQU

                                               1996-2006 Graduates Survey

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: First Veterinary Supply document sample