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					                EURO SPATIAL DIFFUSION
               OBSERVATORY (ODSE-ESDO)

            INED-UMS RIATE – UMR Géographie-cités

           THE DIFFUSION OF EURO COINS ON THE
                   FRENCH TERRITORY :

                  AN INDICATOR OF THE EUROPEAN
                        PEOPLE’S MOBILITY



                          Claude GRASLAND
                         France GUÉRIN-PACE
   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
 Four surveys , 70 000 coins observed
                                         March    June   Sept.   January
                                         2002    2002    2002      2003
   Number of people interviewed
                                         1002    2012    2057     2042
      Number of purses opened
                                          717    1482    1430     1469
      Number of coins founded
                                         10369   21395   21254   19023

   Proportion of foreign coins (%)        4.7     6.0     9.2      11


Proportion of purses with at least one   20.0    33.6    48.0     50.4
       foreign coin in them

     Eurodiffusion,
  Cercedilla, april 2003
                            7%

                            6%
% des personnes enquêtées




                                                                               15.0
                            5%
                                                                               14.5
                            4%
                                                                               14.0
                            3%
                                                                               13.5
                            2%
                                                                               13.0
                            1%
                                                                               12.5
                            0%
                                 1      6        11       16         21   26   12.0
                                                                                      Mars 2002   Juin 2002   Sept. 2002   Janv. 2003
                                                  Nombre de pièces




                            Distribution of number of                                   Average number of
                             coins/purse (4 surveys)                                      coins per purse


                                    Eurodiffusion,
                                 Cercedilla, april 2003
       Distribution of coins among purses by value
             and characteristics of individuals
                           Number     1-2-5 cts   10-20-50   1 et 2 €   Total
                           of coins                  cts

                     ALL     14.1          46%        35%        19%      100%
          2002_03            14.5          49%        33%        18%      100%
          2002_06            14.4          47%        34%        19%      100%
          2002_09            14.6          45%        35%        20%      100%
          2003_01            13.0          44%        37%        20%      100%
          Areas
          R.Parisienne       14.2          47%        35%        18%      100%
          B.P. Est           15.6          43%        35%        22%      100%
          B.P. Ouest         14.1          48%        33%        19%      100%
          Nord               14.6          43%        37%        20%      100%
          Est                13.3          42%        37%        21%      100%
          Ouest              13.7          49%        34%        17%      100%
          Sud_Ouest          14.6          48%        33%        19%      100%
          Sud-Est            13.4          44%        36%        20%      100%
          Méditerranée       13.8          46%        35%        19%      100%
   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
                                         Nord
                                                                    ZEAT
                                          B.P.               Est

                            Ouest                Est B.P.
                                    Ouest B.P.




                                                  Sud- Est



                                    Sud-Ouest        Méditerranée




                         Average number of coins/purse by region
   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
       Distribution of coins among purses by value
             and characteristics of individuals
                                         Number     1-2-5   10-20-   1 et 2 €   Total
                                         of coins    cts    50 cts
                         Sex
                         Male             13.8      45%     35%       20%       100%
                         Female           14.3      47%     34%       19%       100%
                         Age
                         18-24            12.5      46%     37%       17%       100%
                         25-34            13.2      46%     35%       19%       100%
                         35-49            14.2      47%     34%       19%       100%
                         49-64            14.8      45%     36%       20%       100%
                         65+              14.9      46%     34%       20%       100%
                         Income
                         Unknown          13.5      42%     37%       21%       100%
                         <6000F           14.4      49%     33%       18%       100%
                         6000-10000 FF    14.4      47%     34%       19%       100%
                         10000-20000FF     14.1     46%     35%       19%       100%
                         >20000FF         13.9      46%     35%       19%       100%
                         Qualification
                         0-CEP-BEPC       14.5      47%     34%       19%       100%
                         CAP-BEP           14.1     46%     35%       19%       100%
   Eurodiffusion,        BAC              13.8      45%     35%       20%       100%
Cercedilla, april 2003   SUP              13.4      44%     35%       21%       100%
              Probability of finding a foreign euro
         20
              (in %) coin by value of coin
                                                                             1 euro
         18
                                                 march-02                             2 euro
         16                                      june-02
                                                 september-02
         14
                                                 january-03        20 cent
         12
                                                        10 cent.
(en %)




         10
                                             5 cent.
          8
                                   2 cent.
          6
                1 cent.
          4
          2
          0
                 Eurodiffusion,
              Cercedilla, april 2003
Probability of finding a foreign euro coin
            by origin of coin
 (in %)
 35
             Spain
                                                                     March
 30                                                                  June

                                                                     September

                 Germany                                             January
 25
                           Belgium

 20


 15
                           Italy
 10
                                   Netherlands Portugal
                                       Luxembourg
  5                                                   Ireland
                                                                Austria Greece
                                                                                 Finland
  0
   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
      Probability of finding a foreign euro
     coin by individuals and origin of coin
     (in %)


25
      Spain                   Germany
                                                                                      March 2002
20               Belgium
                                                                                      June 2002

15                                                                                    September 2002

                                        Italy                                         January 2003

10
                                                Netherlands
                                                          Portugal Luxembourg
5                                                                                   Ireland
                                                                                              Austria
                                                                           Greece                       Finland

0




        Eurodiffusion,
     Cercedilla, april 2003
     The spatial diffusion of foreign euro coins
             in March and June 2002
Foreign coins                                                                   March, 2002     Foreign coins                                                                   June, 2002
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais



                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine                                       Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace

       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté

70 %                                                                                            70 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes
60 %                                                                                            60 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes
50 %                                                                                            50 %

40 %                                                                                            40 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
30 %                                                                                            30 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon

20 %                                                                                            20 %

10 %                                                                                            10 %
                                                                     0km        100km   200km                                                                        0km        100km   200km


0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                         Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, March 2003                                                  Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, March 2003




           Eurodiffusion,
        Cercedilla, april 2003
           The spatial diffusion in September
                2002 and January 2003
Foreign coins                                                                   Sep, 2002       Foreign coins                                                                   Jan, 2003
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais



                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine                                       Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace
       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté

70 %                                                                                            70 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes
60 %                                                                                            60 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes
50 %                                                                                            50 %

40 %                                                                                            40 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
30 %                                                                                            30 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon
20 %                                                                                            20 %

10 %                                                                                            10 %
                                                                     0km        100km   200km                                                                        0km        100km   200km

0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                         Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, March 2003                                                  Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, March 2003




           Eurodiffusion,
        Cercedilla, april 2003
      Probability of finding a foreign euro coin by
        characteristics of individuals ( June 2002)
                                             ALL
                           non borderer areas               borderer
                   march june september january march june september january

        All          0,15      0,3    0,46    0,44   0,41   0,56   0,59   0,71


     qualified           id.   0,36   0,5     0,49   0,35   0,45   0,59    id

   non qualified         id.   0,27   0,44    0,41   0,5    0,63   0,57    id

       rural             id.   0,23   id.     0,39   id.    id.    id.     id

      urbain             id.   0,32   id.     0,45   id.    id.    id.     id

       Paris         0,25      0,4    id.     0,54   //     //     //     //


   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
                                                                                Mapping the diffusion
                                                                                 of Spanish coins

Spanish coins                                                                   June, 2002      Spain coins                                                                     Sept., 2002     Spain coins                                                                     Jan,2003
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais



                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie                                                                                        Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace                                                                                          Alsace
       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté

35 %                                                                                            35 %                                                                                            35 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes
30 %                                                                                            30 %                                                                                            30 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes
25 %                                                                                            25 %                                                                                            25 %

20 %                                                                                            20 %                                                                                            20 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
15 %                                                                                            15 %                                                                                            15 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon
10 %                                                                                            10 %                                                                                            10 %

5%                                                                                              5%                                                                                              5%
                                                                      0km       100km   200km                                                                         0km       100km   200km                                                                        0km        100km   200km


0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                       Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002




                           June 2002                                                                              September 2002                                                                            January 2003
                             (13%)
                       Eurodiffusion,                                                                                               (20,5%)                                                                              (19,8%)
                    Cercedilla, april 2003
                                                                            Mapping the diffusion
                                                                              of Italian coins

Italian coins                                                                   June, 2002      Italian coins                                                                   Sept., 2002     Italian coins                                                                   Jan,2003
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais



                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie                                                                                        Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace                                                                                          Alsace

       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté

35 %                                                                                            35 %                                                                                            35 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes
30 %                                                                                            30 %                                                                                            30 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes
25 %                                                                                            25 %                                                                                            25 %

20 %                                                                                            20 %                                                                                            20 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
15 %                                                                                            15 %                                                                                            15 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon
10 %                                                                                            10 %                                                                                            10 %

5%                                                                                              5%                                                                                              5%
                                                                      0km       100km   200km                                                                         0km       100km   200km                                                                        0km        100km   200km


0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                       Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002




  June 2002 (6%)                                                                                September 2002 (9,5%)                                                                                     January 2003 (10%)

                       Eurodiffusion,
                    Cercedilla, april 2003
                                                                            Mapping the diffusion
                                                                             of Belgium coins
Belgium coins                                                                   June, 2002      Belgium coins                                                                   Sept., 2002     Belgium coins                                                                   Jan,2003
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais



                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie                                                                                        Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace                                                                                          Alsace
       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté

35 %                                                                                            35 %                                                                                            35 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes
30 %                                                                                            30 %                                                                                            30 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes
25 %                                                                                            25 %                                                                                            25 %

20 %                                                                                            20 %                                                                                            20 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
15 %                                                                                            15 %                                                                                            15 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon
10 %                                                                                            10 %                                                                                            10 %

5%                                                                                              5%                                                                                              5%
                                                                      0km       100km   200km                                                                         0km       100km   200km                                                                        0km        100km   200km


0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                       Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002




            June 2002 (9%)                                                                      September 2002 (13,5%)                                                                           January 2003 (16,5%)

                     Eurodiffusion,
                  Cercedilla, april 2003
                                                                            Mapping the diffusion
                                                                              of German coins
German coins                                                                    June, 2002      German coins                                                                    Sept., 2002     German coins                                                                    Jan,2003
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais


                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie                                                                                        Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                  Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace                                                                                          Alsace
       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté

35 %                                                                                            35 %                                                                                            35 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes
30 %                                                                                            30 %                                                                                            30 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes
25 %                                                                                            25 %                                                                                            25 %

20 %                                                                                            20 %                                                                                            20 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
15 %                                                                                            15 %                                                                                            15 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon
10 %                                                                                            10 %                                                                                            10 %

5%                                                                                              5%                                                                                              5%
                                                                      0km       100km   200km                                                                         0km       100km   200km                                                                        0km        100km   200km

0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                       Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                              Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002




              June 2002                                                                                  September 2002                                                                                           January 2003
              (10,2%)                                                                                         (13%)                                                                                                  (20%)
                       Eurodiffusion,
                    Cercedilla, april 2003
                         DIFFUSION TOUS PAYS




   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
          probability of having a foreign coin
                    (logistic model)
                  ZEAT                     Mars               Juin        Septembre      Janvier
          Région parisienne                  NS                NS               NS         NS
          Est Bassin Parisien                NS                2,4              NS         2,3
         Ouest Bassin Parisien               NS                NS               NS         NS
                Nord                         6,7               5,3              3          2,3
                 Est                         4,9               NS               NS         1,8
                Ouest
              Sud-Ouest                      NS                2,7              NS         NS
               Sud-Est                       NS                2,2              NS         NS
                med.                         NS                2,7              1,7        3
            Méditerrannée                    NS                NS               NS         NS
      borderer "département"
                   OUI                       2,5               1,9              NS         2,8
                   NON
              Localization
                    rural
                   urbain                    NS                NS               NS         0,7
                   Paris                     NS                2,5              NS         NS
   Eurodiffusion,           All the results in the table are significative at 5% level
Cercedilla, april 2003
              The assumptions of spatial
                 interaction models
   Flows between two places are proportionnal to
    their capacities of imports/immigration and
    exports/emigrations

   Importance of the spatial factor in the analysis
    of exchange behaviours = role of the Distance

        Eurodiffusion,
     Cercedilla, april 2003
                 H y p o t h e s is 1 . T h e e x c h a n g e s b e tw e e n tw o p la c e s a r e in
                                       p r o p o r tio n w ith c a p a c itie s o f im p o r ts /im m ig r a tio n s
                            1000       a n d e x p o r ts /e m ig r a tio n s o f th e s e p la c e s
                                  100
                                  10
                                  0

C a p a c itie s o f im p o r ts /e m ig r a tio n s
 a n d e x p o r ts / e m ig r a tio n s
            ( s u m o f flo w s )




                F lo w s



                 H y p o t h e s is 2 . T h e g r e a te r th e d is ta n c e b e tw e e n tw o te r r ito r ie s is , th e
                                       s m a lle r th e ir e x c h a n g e s a r e



                                                                                                                              The geographical
                                                                                                                               modelization of
                            km


                D is ta n c e




                                                                                                                                   flows
                                                                                                     km




                 H y p o t h e s is 3 . T h e o v e r s te p p in g o f a te r r ito r ia l lim it
                                       r e d u c e s th e e x c h a n g e s




                  F r o n tie r




               Eurodiffusion,
            Cercedilla, april 2003
                 Spatial Interaction Models
                     of Euro diffusion
         Models                  Explanatory variables and hypothesis

                                 Capacities    of    exchange      :    the
 Capacities interaction models      good/individuals flow between two
       F*ij = ai.Oi.bj.Dj           places is proportional to capacities of
                                    imports/immigrations               and
                                    exports/emigrations of these places


Spatial interaction models       Capacities of exchanges and distance :if
   F*ij = ai.Oi.bj.Dj.dija          capacities     of    exchanges   are
                                    considered as equal, the greater the
                                    distance between two places is, the
                                    smaller their exchanges are
Geographical interaction models Capacities of exchanges, distance and
  F*ij = ai.Oi.bj.Dj.dija.(1/g)Aij discontinuity : if capacities of
                                    exchanges      and      distance  are
       Eurodiffusion,               considered as equal, the overstepping
    Cercedilla, april 2003          of a limit reduces the exchanges
          Problems in the Applications of
          those models to Euro Diffusion
 1 : from modelisation of flows to simulation
  of euro diffusion
 2 : the spatial resolution of the model (state,

  region, commune, individuals ...)
 3 : the time-scale resolution (iteration of the
  diffusion process)
       Eurodiffusion,
    Cercedilla, april 2003
                  The geographical modelization of flows

German coins                                                                    June, 2002      German coins                                                                    June, 2002      German coins                                                                     June, 2002
probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais                                      probability                             Nord-Pas-de-Calais
                                                                                                                                                                                                probability                              Nord-Pas-de-Calais


                                                 Picardie                                                                                        Picardie                                                                                         Picardie
                             Haute-Normandie                                                                                 Haute-Normandie                                                                                  Haute-Normandie

                  Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                      Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine                                       Basse-Normandie                                   Lorraine
                                                     Champagne-Ardenne
                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                              Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                          Ile-de-France                                                                                               Champagne-Ardenne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Ile-de-France
                                                                                   Alsace                                                                                          Alsace                                                                                           Alsace
       Bretagne                                                                                        Bretagne                                                                                         Bretagne


                  Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                    Pays-de-Loire         Centre                                                                     Pays-de-Loire         Centre
                                                            Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                         Bourgogne Franche-Comté                                                                          Bourgogne Franche-Comté

35 %                                                                                            35 %

                     Poitou-Charentes                                                                                Poitou-Charentes                                                                                 Poitou-Charentes
30 %                                                                                            30 %                                                                                            12 %
                                        Limousin Auvergne                                                                               Limousin Auvergne                                                                                Limousin Auvergne
                                                                   Rhône-Alpes                                                                                     Rhône-Alpes                                                                                      Rhône-Alpes
25 %                                                                                            25 %
                                                                                                                                                                                                6%
20 %                                                                                            20 %
                        Aquitaine                                                                                       Aquitaine                                                                                        Aquitaine
                                                                   Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                       Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur                                                                        Provence-Alpes-Côte-dAzur
15 %                                                                                            15 %                                                                                            -6 %
                                    Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                   Midi-Pyrénées                                                                                    Midi-Pyrénées
                                              Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                            Languedoc-Roussillon                                                                             Languedoc-Roussillon
10 %                                                                                            10 %
                                                                                                                                                                                                -12 %
5%                                                                                              5%
                                                                      0km       100km   200km                                                                                                                                                                          0km       100km   200km
                                                                                                                                                                      0km       100km   200km

0%                (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)                   0%                                                                                              -30 %              (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                                                                                                                  (c) Grasland C. (University Paris 7), Guerin-Pace F. (INED)
                       Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002                                                                                                                                               Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002
                                                                                                                       Euro Spatial Diffusion Observatory, September 2002




                       Observed                                                                                       Theoretical                                                                                            Residuals
                      distribution
                                                                                                                      distribution
                     Eurodiffusion,
                  Cercedilla, april 2003
        What we would like to do

 Find European financing to realise the same
  survey in all the euro zone
 Develop the ESDO project with European’s

  collaborations
 Develop spatial models with epidemiologists



   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
  Main trade exchanges between
European countries in 1971 and 1994
                                                                       -




           Part of the exchanges between western   0   500 km   Part of the exchanges between western   0   500 km
           european countries in 1971                           european countries in 1994

                     0,8 % to 1,2 %                                        1 % to 1,5 %
                     1,3 % to 2,1 %                                        1,6 % to 2,1 %
                     2,2 % to 4,9%                                         2,2 % to 3,9%


   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003
                Residuals of the spatial
               interaction model in 1994




   Eurodiffusion,
Cercedilla, april 2003

				
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