The 2011 Import and Export
Market for Petroleum
Bitumen, Residues of
Petroleum or Bituminous
Mineral Oils, and Bituminous
Mixtures in Germany
By
Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
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Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.
About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.
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Contents vi
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 7
2 GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET 9
2.1 Imports in Germany in 2011 9
2.2 Exports from Germany in 2011 10
3 IMPORTS IN GERMANY 11
3.1 Europe 11
3.1.1 Austria 11
3.1.2 Belgium 12
3.1.3 Czech Republic 12
3.1.4 France 13
3.1.5 Hungary 14
3.1.6 Italy 14
3.1.7 Poland 15
3.1.8 Sweden 15
3.1.9 the Netherlands 16
3.2 North America & the Caribbean 17
3.2.1 the United States 17
4 EXPORTS FROM GERMANY 18
4.1 Asia 18
4.1.1 China 18
4.1.2 Indonesia 19
4.1.3 Malaysia 20
4.2 Europe 21
4.2.1 Austria 21
4.2.2 Belgium 22
4.2.3 Croatia 22
4.2.4 Czech Republic 23
4.2.5 Denmark 23
4.2.6 Finland 24
4.2.7 France 24
4.2.8 Italy 25
4.2.9 Luxembourg 25
4.2.10 Norway 26
4.2.11 Romania 26
4.2.12 Slovakia 27
4.2.13 Slovenia 27
4.2.14 Sweden 28
4.2.15 the Netherlands 28
4.3 North America & the Caribbean 29
4.3.1 the United States 29
4.4 the Middle East 29
4.4.1 Israel 29
4.4.2 Saudi Arabia 30
5 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 31
5.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 31
5.2 ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions 32
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Petroleum Bitumen, Residues of Petroleum or Bituminous Mineral Oils, and Bituminous Mixtures in
Germany 7
1 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on petroleum bitumen, residues of
petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures in Germany face a number of
questions. Which countries are supplying petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or
bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures to Germany? How important is Germany
compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports
of petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures
vary from one country of origin to another in Germany? On the supply side, Germany also
exports petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous
mixtures. Which countries receive the most exports from Germany? How are these exports
concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the
largest buyers?
This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for petroleum bitumen, residues of
petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures in Germany. With the
globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can
managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have
developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for
petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures
for those countries serving Germany via exports, or supplying from Germany via imports. It does
so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.
In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Germany fits into the world market for
imported and exported petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and
bituminous mixtures. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for
Germany in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country
markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of
the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based
on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then
calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and
export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we
are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the share
that Germany is likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow
managers to prioritize Germany compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the
figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information
sources for strategic planning purposes.
After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of petroleum bitumen,
residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures, Chapter 3 goes into
detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Germany. A “major” market is
defined as a country where Germany represents a substantially large share of either imports or
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Petroleum Bitumen, Residues of Petroleum or Bituminous Mineral Oils, and Bituminous Mixtures in
Germany 8
exports. For each major country exporting to Germany, one can thus observe how important
Germany is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does
the same, but for exports of petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils,
and bituminous mixtures originating from Germany, for each major country of destination. In
doing so, one can discover the share that Germany has in each major market; this share value is
often used as a measure of competitiveness for Germany. In all cases, the total dollar volume and
percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4
present a the total picture for imports and exports of petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or
bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures to and from Germany to and from all other
major countries in the world. "Petroleum Bitumen, Residues of Petroleum or Bituminous Mineral
Oils, and Bituminous Mixtures" as a category is defined in this report following the definition
given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard
International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined
"petroleum bitumen, residues of petroleum or bituminous mineral oils, and bituminous mixtures"
is 33541 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=335 .
This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.
Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.
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Petroleum Bitumen, Residues of Petroleum or Bituminous Mineral Oils, and Bituminous Mixtures in
Germany 9
2 GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET
2.1 IMPORTS IN GERMANY IN 2011
Imported Petroleum Bitumen, Residues of Petroleum or Bituminous Mineral Oils,
and Bituminous Mixtures in Germany, 2011
(Structure of Foreign Import Competition)
Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Belgium 1 107,759 43.61 43.61
France 2 45,511 18.42 62.03
Czech Republic 3 38,051 15.40 77.43
Poland 4 28,503 11.54 88.97
the Netherlands 5 25,293 10.24 99.20
Austria 6 1,423 0.58 99.78
Italy 7 272 0.11 99.89
the United States 8 144 0.06 99.95
Sweden 9 112 0.05 99.99
Hungary 10 17 0.01 100.00
Total 247,085 100.00 100.00
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011, www.icongrouponline.com
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Petroleum