The 2011 Import and Export Market for Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
    Market for Mineral Fuels,
     Lubricants, and Related
     Materials in Azerbaijan

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                            Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                      6
2     AZERBAIJAN AND THE WORLD MARKET                                   8
    2.1     Imports in Azerbaijan in 2011                               8
    2.2     Exports from Azerbaijan in 2011                             9
3     IMPORTS IN AZERBAIJAN                                            10
    3.1      Europe                                                    10
       3.1.1    Finland                                                10
       3.1.2    Kazakhstan                                             11
    3.2      the Middle East                                           12
       3.2.1    Iran                                                   12
       3.2.2    Iraq                                                   13
       3.2.3    Oman                                                   14
       3.2.4    Turkey                                                 15
       3.2.5    Turkmenistan                                           16
       3.2.6    Uzbekistan                                             17
4     EXPORTS FROM AZERBAIJAN                                          18
    4.1      Europe                                                    18
       4.1.1    Albania                                                18
       4.1.2    Austria                                                19
       4.1.3    Cyprus                                                 20
       4.1.4    Estonia                                                21
       4.1.5    Finland                                                22
       4.1.6    France                                                 23
       4.1.7    Georgia                                                24
       4.1.8    Germany                                                25
       4.1.9    Greece                                                 26
       4.1.10 Italy                                                    27
       4.1.11 Latvia                                                   28
       4.1.12 Lithuania                                                29
       4.1.13 Moldova                                                  30
       4.1.14 Romania                                                  31
       4.1.15 Russia                                                   32
       4.1.16 Slovenia                                                 33
       4.1.17 Ukraine                                                  34
    4.2      the Middle East                                           35
       4.2.1    Iran                                                   35
       4.2.2    Kyrgyzstan                                             36
       4.2.3    Turkey                                                 37
    5.1     Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  38
    5.2     ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  39                                 ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                               Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan     6

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on mineral fuels, lubricants, and
related materials in Azerbaijan face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying
mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials to Azerbaijan? How important is Azerbaijan
compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports
of mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials vary from one country of origin to another in
Azerbaijan? On the supply side, Azerbaijan also exports mineral fuels, lubricants, and related
materials. Which countries receive the most exports from Azerbaijan? How are these exports
concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the
largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for mineral fuels, lubricants, and
related materials in Azerbaijan. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be
contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which
appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic
and trade models, to estimate the market for mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials for
those countries serving Azerbaijan via exports, or supplying from Azerbaijan via imports. It does
so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Azerbaijan fits into the world market
for imported and exported mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials. The total level of
imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for Azerbaijan in particular, is estimated
using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the
current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is
served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-
side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market
destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are
aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood
estimates of both the value of each market and the share that Azerbaijan is likely to receive this
year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Azerbaijan
compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are
forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of mineral fuels,
lubricants, and related materials, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major
country of origin serving Azerbaijan. A “major” market is defined as a country where Azerbaijan
represents a substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country
exporting to Azerbaijan, one can thus observe how important Azerbaijan is to that exporting
country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of
mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials originating from Azerbaijan, for each major
country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that Azerbaijan has in each major                                                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan      7

market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for Azerbaijan. In all
cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided.
Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of mineral fuels,
lubricants, and related materials to and from Azerbaijan to and from all other major countries in
the world. "Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials" as a category is defined in this
report following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification
Registry using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The
SITC code that defined "mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials" is 3       . For more
information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                  Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan        8

    Imported Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Turkmenistan                      1                  426,387                47.27                   47.27
Uzbekistan                        2                  163,942                18.18                   65.45
Russia                            3                  117,917                13.07                   78.52
Kazakhstan                        4                  116,247                12.89                   91.41
Turkey                            5                   28,144                 3.12                   94.53
Iran                              6                   26,498                 2.94                   97.47
Belgium                           7                    9,265                 1.03                   98.50
Ukraine                           8                    5,471                 0.61                   99.10
the United Kingdom                9                    2,275                 0.25                   99.36
the United Arab Emirates         10                    1,452                 0.16                   99.52
Germany                          11                      999                 0.11                   99.63
China                            12                      910                 0.10                   99.73
Iraq                             13                      804                 0.09                   99.82
France                           14                      601                 0.07                   99.88
the United States                15                      318                 0.04                   99.92
Finland                          16                      298                 0.03                   99.95
Oman                             17                      206                 0.02                   99.98
Singapore                        18                      103                 0.01                   99.99
Latvia                           19                       49                 0.01                   99.99
Canada                           20                       36                 0.00                  100.00
Denmark                          21                       34                 0.00                  100.00
Total                                                901,956               100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                           ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                  Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan        9

  Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials Exports from Azerbaijan, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Italy                             1                2,144,130                41.78                   41.78
France                            2                  882,439                17.19                   58.97
Germany                           3                  612,199                11.93                   70.90
Turkey                            4                  364,358                 7.10                   78.00
Georgia                           5                  351,730                 6.85                   84.85
Austria                           6                  235,146                 4.58                   89.43
Romania                           7                  205,853                 4.01                   93.44
Iran                              8                  113,415                 2.21                   95.65
Greece                            9                   62,331                 1.21                   96.87
the United States                10                   61,422                 1.20                   98.07
Finland                          11                   40,048                 0.78                   98.85
Russia                           12                   18,039                 0.35                   99.20
Ukraine                          13                   14,534                 0.28                   99.48
Slovenia                         14                    6,136                 0.12                   99.60
the Netherlands                  15                    5,376                 0.10                   99.70
Albania                          16                    4,104                 0.08                   99.78
Moldova                          17                    2,539                 0.05                   99.83
Cyprus                           18                    2,073                 0.04                   99.87
Kyrgyzstan                       19                    1,779                 0.03                   99.91
Latvia                           20                    1,643                 0.03                   99.94
Bulgaria                         21                    1,260                 0.02                   99.97
Estonia                          22                      869                 0.02                   99.98
Lithuania                        23                      518                 0.01                   99.99
Poland                           24                      372                 0.01                  100.00
Total                                              5,132,313               100.00                  100.00
   Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                           ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                  Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials in Azerbaijan       10

3.1         EUROPE
3.1.1          Finland
    Mineral Fuels, Lubricants, and Related Materials Exports from Finland, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Sweden                            1                1,670,393                32.48                   32.48
Germany                           2                  816,768                15.88                   48.37
the United States                 3                  676,088                13.15                   61.51
Canada                            4                  485,469                 9.44                   70.95
Belgium                           5                  339,175                 6.60                   77.55
Russia                            6                  240,480                 4.68                   82.22
France                            7                  223,508                 4.35                   86.57
Denmark                           8                  199,065                 3.87                   90.44
Norway                            9                  164,303                 3.20                   93.64
the United Kingdom               10                   84,018                 1.63                   95.27
Spain                            11                   63,452                 1.23                   96.50
Poland                           12                   53,692                 1.04                   97.55
the Netherlan
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