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									                      MULTI-MODAL STUDY




NORTH/SOUTH MOVEMENTS ON THE M1 CORRIDOR

                     IN THE EAST MIDLANDS




                        INCEPTION REPORT




                                 MARCH 2000
                            MULTI-MODAL STUDY




NORTH/SOUTH MOVEMENTS ON THE M1 CORRIDOR

                         IN THE EAST MIDLANDS




                                INCEPTION REPORT




                                                   MARCH 2000

                                   WS Atkins Consultants Limited
                 Television House, Mount Street Manchester M2 5NT
                                  NORTH/SOUTH MOVEMENTS ON THE M1 CORRIDOR
                                      IN THE EAST MIDLANDS – INCEPTION REPORT

Contents
1.           INTRODUCTION                                                           1

2.           INITIAL REVIEW                                                         3
             INTRODUCTION                                                     3
             DOCUMENT REVIEW                                                  3
             REVIEW OF TRAFFIC DATA                                           3
             RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER SURVEYS                              7
             NEED FOR LIAISON                                                18
             OVERVIEW OF KEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND REGENERATION ISSUES IN
             THE STUDY AREA                                                  18

3.           STUDY METHODOLOGY                                                     21
             INTRODUCTION                                                          21
             THE STRATEGIC CHOICE APPROACH                                         21
             DETAILS OF THE CONSULTATION EXERCISES DURING THE SCOPING PHASE        25
             MODELLING                                                             27
             THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL                                            37
             THE MODE CHOICE MODEL                                                 40
             LAND-USE/ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND REGENERATION ISSUES.                42

4.           PROGRAMME                                                             45
             MEETINGS                                                              45

5.           MANAGEMENT PLAN                                                       48
             INTRODUCTION                                                          48
             AIMS AND OBJECTIVES                                                   48
             DELIVERABLES                                                          49
             SCOPE OF WORK                                                         49
             ROLES, RESPONSIBILITIES AND RESOURCES                                 49
             COST PLAN AND CONTROL                                                 52
             REPORTING MECHANISM                                                   52
             RISK MANAGEMENT                                                       52
             CHANGE MANAGEMENT                                                     52




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TABLES AND FIGURES
Figure 2.1 Location of RSI Sites in Skeletal Network Area                       8
Figure 2.2 Location of RSI Sites in Detailed Network Area                       9
Figure 2.3 Recommendations for further RSI Locations                           11
Figure 2.4 Through Traffic Survey - Video Camera Locations                     13
Figure 2.5 Recommendations for Journey Time Surveys                            16
Figure 3.1 Consultation Programme                                              24
Figure 3.2 Development of the Highway Model                                    28
Figure 3.3 Development of the Public Transport Model                           29
Figure 3.4 Development of the Mode Choice Model                                30
Figure 3.5 Scope of Model Area                                                 33
Figure 4.1 Work Programme - Surveys/Modelling                                  45
Figure 5.1 Risk Assessment                                                     53

Table 4.1: Suggested Outline Study Programme                                   47
Table 5.1: Schedule of Deliverables                                            49



APPENDICES

APPENDIX A                             STUDY TEAM




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                                  NORTH/SOUTH MOVEMENTS ON THE M1 CORRIDOR
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1.             INTRODUCTION

1.1            A consortium of WS Atkins, Steer Davies Gleave, Llewelyn-Davies, Ecotec and MDS
               Transmodal has been appointed by the Government Office for the East Midlands to undertake the
               North South Movements on the M1 Corridor in the East Midlands Multi-Modal Study. The multi-
               modal studies are initiated by the DETR and are being managed by the respective government
               offices. They represent an opportunity to ensure that decision-making on an expanded range of
               policy and plan choices in each of the study area is based on a sound technical analysis and the
               New Approach to Appraisal process to reflect fully the new policy framework embedded in the
               1998 White Paper.

1.2            The multi-modal studies represent an opportunity to examine in depth ways by which the
               Government’s integrated transport and related policies can be implemented specifically in:

                        developing transport strategies to form part of regional planning guidance;

                        integration of transport and land-use planning at local and regional levels;

                        identifying transport solutions supportive of sustainable development; and

                        adopting a consultative approach to the development of preferred solutions.

1.3            The objective of the study is to carry out an in-depth appraisal of the total transport needs of the
               M1 corridor between junctions 21 and 30, at present and for the future to the year 2021.

1.4            The specific objectives of the study include amongst others:

                        An assessment of existing and future congestion and other transport problems in the study
                         area.

                        Consideration of planned and future development pressures.

                        Assessment of the impact on transport of development at the Markham Employment
                         Growth Zone (MEGZ) and the implications of a new junction to the north of Junction 29.

                        Identification of a comprehensive range of multi-modal strategies that could be used to
                         tackle the transport problems of the study area.

                        Identification of a preferred strategy and a detailed range of measures and/or policy
                         recommendations for implementation.

                        Identification of viable options for an A6 Kegworth Bypass.

1.5            The aim of this Inception Report is to set out details of the following:

                        Study Approach – This expands upon the methodology contained in our proposal.

                        Requirements for further surveys – This sets out our initial proposals for data collection
                         that are based on a review of information available to date.

                        Conclusions from initial review of documents – We have undertaken an initial review of
                         available documents. Our conclusions from this review are set out in this report.




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                        Proposals for meetings - We present our programme of planned meetings with the Project
                         Management Group, The Regional Steering Group and the Wider Reference Group,
                         detailing the key components of their agendas during the period of the Scoping phase.

                        Study management and consultation plan - Both the management of the study and the
                         Consultation with outside bodies and the public is key to a successful study. We set out a
                         detailed plan addressing both of these issues.

                        Special factors impacting upon the study area – The study area is defined in the brief.
                         However, we assess the likelihood of factors outside of the defined study area impacting
                         upon the extent of the study area. In particular we assess the likely inter-relationship with
                         other studies and the need for sharing of data etc.

1.6            Our staffing proposals will be broadly as outlined in the tender documents. However, as the details
               of the study would not be further developed until the scoping stage of the study, our staffing
               arrangements will be reviewed and confirmed as part of the Scoping Report.




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2.             INITIAL REVIEW

               INTRODUCTION

2.1            This chapter sets out our findings from an initial review of available documents, our views on the
               likely impact upon the study area (and the study) of factors outside the study area and also further
               thoughts on the surveys required to progress the study. The chapter deals primarily with the
               review of traffic data and outlines issues relating to public transport before providing a summary
               overview of key economic development and regeneration issues in the study area. Public transport
               data and associated requirements will be covered in more detail in the scoping study.

               DOCUMENT REVIEW

2.2            A number of documents were provided by GOEM and a list of contact details was provided for the
               sourcing of other documents. The documents provided by GOEM were:

                        A New Deal for the Railways

                        Local Transport Plan for Leicestershire

                        Local Transport Plan for Central Leicestershire

                        Local Transport Plan for North Nottinghamshire

                        Local Transport Plan for Greater Nottingham

                        Local Transport Plan for Derbyshire

                        Local Transport Plan for Derby City

                        Draft Regional Transport Strategy

                        Draft Spatial Development Strategy for the East Midlands

2.3            In addition to the above, we have requested the following from other organisations:

                        Coalfield Alliance (Derbyshire County Council) Study Data; and

                        Strategic Sub-Regional Development Study of the Junction 24 Area (Leicestershire County
                         Council).

2.4            Whilst we have undertaken a review of the documents listed in paragraph 2.2 above, we are still
               awaiting other documents to be made available. We will, as part of the scoping stage, request the
               latest drafts of various development plans. We will, therefore, present our review of documents
               within the scoping report.

               REVIEW OF TRAFFIC DATA

               Overview

2.5            One of the prime objectives of this study is to identify and develop solutions for the stress areas
               along the M1 Motorway. As part of this identification, it is fundamental to understand the current

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               traffic patterns and operating conditions in the study corridor. We have undertaken a review of all
               available traffic data for our proposed study area, with the intention of undertaking new traffic
               surveys where information is not available.

2.6            This review has included:

                        Roadside Interview Survey data collected in the last 5 years;

                        Any information on M1 Through Traffic;

                        Available Traffic Count Information; and

                        Current network operating conditions.

2.7            The following sections describe the sources and quality of data that is already available, and make
               recommendations on additional surveys that will be required.

               Roadside Interview Surveys

2.8            Roadside Interview (RSI) Surveys are used to collect origin-destination data. This sort of data is
               imperative to ascertain a detailed understanding of trip making on the M1 and on important feeder
               and parallel routes.

2.9            We have sought information on Roadside Interview Surveys from a variety of sources. These
               include:




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       Organisation                   Contact                             Request                     Reply Received     Details
                                                                                                                         Received
       Leicester City                 Howard Thomas                       Details of Traffic Models   Yes                Yes
       Council                                                            RSI Information
                                                                          Traffic Count Sites
       Leicestershire                 Dr Douglas Reid                     Details of Traffic Models   Yes                Yes
       County Council                                                     RSI Information             Meeting Held
                                                                          Traffic Count Sites
       Derbyshire                     Richard Hopkinson                   Traffic Count Sites         Meeting Held       Yes
       County Council
       HA – Area 7                    Mike Sumner                         Details of Traffic Models   Yes                Yes
                                                                          RSI Information
                                                                          Traffic Count Sites
       HA – Area 14                   Ian Askew                           M1 Widening Documents       Meeting Held
                                                                          Details of Traffic Models   Further Meetings
                                                                                                      Likely
                                                                          RSI Information
                                                                          Traffic Count Sites
       HA – Area 11                   Richard Willson                     Details of Traffic Models   No                 Yes
                                                                          RSI Information
                                                                          Traffic Count Sites
       HETA                           Mo Shakarami                        RSI Information Database    Yes                Yes


2.10           The Highways Agency has also provided a list of available traffic models maintained by local
               councils.

2.11           In addition, HETA division of the DETR has provided us with their Roadside Interview Database,
               which contains all roadside interviews collated from 1990 to the beginning of 1999.

2.12           The DETR database was built to provide a comprehensive listing of all available origin-destination
               datasets in England by approaching all the County, City and District Councils, as well as
               Highways Agency consultants. The database has proved very useful in identifying datasets that
               are relevant to this study. Useful information from the database includes:

                        Details of the organisation who carried out the survey;

                        Whether the data is held in electronic format;

                        Year and location of survey;

                        Whether count surveys were carried out at the time of the RIS; and

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                        Details of demand matrices that were constructed from the data.

2.13           Figures 2.1 and 2.2 show the locations of all of the relevant RSI in our skeletal and detailed study
               areas respectively.

2.14           The two figures categorise the RSI into three bands: First, before 1994, secondly, between 1994
               and 1996 and thirdly, between 1997 and 1999. Unfortunately, the figures suggest that the majority
               of the surveys took place before 1994, but recent RSI have been identified around Tamworth,
               Mansfield and around Junction 29/30 of the M1. This final cluster was collated as part of the WS
               Atkins model currently being developed for MEGZ/Junction 29A.

2.15           The skeletal area shown in Figure 2.1 has been identified as the area to be covered in the proposed
               traffic modelling exercise to provide an understanding of traffic that has the ability to re-route onto
               other corridors or approach routes as a result of changing congestion on the M1. The skeletal area
               includes important parallel routes to the M1, such as the A1 and A606, and also relevant feeder
               roads to the M1 such as the M69, M42, A38, A50 and M18. All of the routes inside the skeletal
               area boundary will be affected by congestion on the M1 to a lesser or greater degree, and will also
               influence where traffic volumes access/egress the M1. There is less of a need for comprehensive
               demand data on these routes, but traffic demand data that is readily available would be useful.

2.16           Figure 2.2 shows the location of available RSI in the central area of our study. At the southern
               end of our study area, all of the RSI information dates from before 1994. There are data available
               in Ashby-de-la-Zouch and Burton-Upon Trent, but again, the information was collected before
               1994. There is more recent RSI information available in North Nottingham and Heanor, but the
               most recent information is shown to be around Mansfield and around Junction 29, collected as part
               of the MEGZ Study.

2.17           There is a reference number for each RSI location shown on Figures 2.1 and 2.2, and therefore
               additional details for each RSI can be identified.

2.18           In our view, traffic demand information obtained before 1994 should be avoided, or at least treated
               cautiously. The focus of this study is to understand the current and likely future traffic movements
               on the M1, and as such, traffic demand data collected before 1994 may mislead. The available
               information suggests to us, that although up-to-date information may be available at the northern
               end of our study area, new surveys would be required at many of the feeder roads to the M1,
               particularly from Nottingham southwards.

               Traffic Counts

2.19           All Roadside interview surveys that we will undertake will also be subject to traffic counts at the
               same time and at the same location. This is to enable the samples of OD movements identified in
               the RSI to be factored to the counted flow in each modelled time period. In addition, automatic
               traffic counts covering a two-week period would be carried out at each RSI site. The count period
               would cover the day of the RSI survey and would be used to determine any traffic variation on the
               day of the RSI survey as well as variation in daily traffic flows.

2.20           WS Atkins is currently acting as traffic commissioners for the Highways Agency for the West
               Midlands Region. This region covers the Highways Agency Areas 9, 11 and 12 and traffic
               volume information is available for all motorway and Trunk Roads within this region. Our study
               area also covers parts of HA Areas 7, 8 and 14 for which relevant count data would have to be
               obtained from the HA Commission holders.




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2.21           It is also important to obtain traffic count information on non-Trunk roads. All relevant county
               and city councils have been approached, and a comprehensive review of available data will be
               made as part of the Scoping Stage. In our view, we would not envisage a significant count
               exercise to be undertaken as part of this study. Sufficient counts are available on the Trunk Road
               network to enable a clear understanding of the hourly and daily traffic volumes on the M1 and on
               other key links. Traffic flow information that is not readily available is discussed in the next
               section.

               RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER SURVEYS

2.22           Whilst the full traffic survey proposals will be developed during the scoping stage of the study, we
               present here our proposals for the main body of surveys that we consider necessary. Subject to the
               agreement of the PMG and RSG, these surveys are to be organised early so as to avoid any
               logistical difficulty in the surveys taking place as proposed in April/May 2000. Any delay will
               mean a possible survey slippage until the Autumn which would threaten the study timescale. Any
               additional surveys identified during the scoping stage would be incorporated within the survey
               programme but probably take place during June 2000.




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                                  Figure 2.1 Location of RSI Sites in Skeletal Network Area




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                                 Figure 2.2 Location of RSI Sites in Detailed Network Area




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               Roadside Interview Surveys

2.23           In the light of our review of existing RSI information, we would recommend that additional RSI
               surveys are undertaken. Figure 2.3 illustrates our recommendations for 23 further surveys we
               have set up three screen lines to intersect major north-south running routes. It is proposed to
               interview drivers in one direction only. These proposed RSI screenlines are:

                        Screenline 1 – between Mansfield and Chesterfield/Worksop, including A61,A60 and A1;

                        Screenline 2 – between Nottingham and Mansfield, including A38, A60 and A614; and

                        Screenline 3 – between Leicester/Loughborough and Nottingham.

2.24           In addition, RSI sites are proposed at all other approaches to the M1 motorway in the study area.

2.25           We have liaised with Pell Frischmann (PF), who will be collecting data along and around the
               A453. PF has agreed to undertake the surveys on the A606, A46, A60, and A453 and also the site
               to be located on the A52 east of junction 25. Pell Frischmann will thus form an L-shaped
               screenline, although we will utilise the same data to form our Screenline 3. These sites of
               common interest are shown in Figure2.3 as circled. We will not undertake surveys at these circled
               sites.

2.26           Whilst the proposed RSI sites will intercept nearly all traffic accessing/egressing the M1 in the
               study area. Much of the traffic on the M1 has both origin and destination outside of the study area
               and would not be intercepted at any of the above sites. It will be vital to have additional
               information on these longer distance journeys in order to develop and test any public test
               alternatives. We recommend therefore conducting interview surveys at the four Motorway Service
               Areas falling within the study area. These are:

                        Leicester Forest East– located between M1 junctions 21 and 21A;

                        Donington Park– accessed via M1 J23a.

                        Trowell– between junctions 25 and 26; and

                        Tibshelf– located between junctions 28 and 29.

2.27           In addition, upon advice from the Highways Agency, it is proposed to include Woodall services
               (located between junctions 30 and 31) within the programme of MSA surveys. Although outside
               the study area, the MSA is south of the M1/M18 intersection and may be a good location to obtain
               the views of drivers who might use the A1 (or the A614) as an alternative route.

2.28           Interviews at MSAs can lead to a biased sample, but we are aware of the potential for bias, and
               will incorporate any information from MSA interviews taking full account of the alternative
               information on local traffic and through traffic from other sources.

2.29           At each Roadside and MSA survey location, goods vehicle drivers will be interviewed as well as
               car drivers. Information from drivers of goods vehicles would be used for both the main highway
               model and the separate freight model.

2.30           All proposed RSI surveys will be programmed after taking account of the M1 and other local
               maintenance programmes. Liaison with HA representatives has already begun to identify best
               dates.


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2.31           In view of the tight timescale to obtain ministerial approvals and organise the surveys in time for
               them to be undertaken within the spring neutral period, the Regional Steering Group at its meeting
               in February agreed in principal to the survey proposals. Since then, we have taken on board the
               comments received from PMG members and reviewed our survey proposals. The proposals for
               highway surveys now included in this report, have been discussed with GOEM and are therefore
               considered to be the surveys for which we have agreement in principal.

               Through Traffic Surveys

2.32           As it is not possible to undertake Roadside Interview Surveys on the M1, we recommend that a
               through traffic survey is undertaken. The through traffic survey is designed to complement the RSI
               information obtained at the four motorway service areas. This information is collected in order to
               give an estimate of the typical amount of peak and off peak through traffic on the M1.

2.33           The through traffic survey is carried out by video recording and matching registrations at various
               points along the corridor. Figure 2.4 shows our initial view on the positions of video cameras
               needed for a through traffic survey. All cameras would collate information in the northbound
               direction to save costs as the proportions of longer distance traffic is likely to be similar in both
               directions. We will possibly adapt these proposals if the PMG members have a different view on
               the patterns of longer distance traffic in this corridor. There are three sites where registrations are
               input, these are:

                        Site 1: M1 South of Junction 21;

                        Site 2: M69 South of M1 Junction 21; and

                        Site 3: A42 South of M1 Junction 23A;

2.34           These registration inputs would be matched at the northern end of the M1, namely Site 4, located
               south of Junction 30.

2.35           The information collected in this way will help to validate the levels of shorter distance and longer
               distance modelled journeys in the traffic mix. In addition to providing through traffic information,
               the survey can also be used to validate the average journey time for through traffic.




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2.36           Figure 2.3 Recommendations for Further RSI Locations




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               Traffic Counts

2.37           Flows on most key links are continuously monitored as part of the Highway Agency’s Area
               Traffic Monitoring Commission. The only area of concern about the availability of data is the
               availability of turning flow information at the M1 junctions. Not only will this type of information
               be useful to validate the traffic model, but would also feed into junction analysis tests as part of the
               appraisal of alternative options. Following a review of all potential sources of turning count
               information, including all relevant documents, we would propose additional turning counts where
               no information is available.

2.38           With the opening of the Derby Southern Bypass, and the full opening of Junction 24A in August
               1999, the traffic patterns have changed significantly in this area. Allied to the new infrastructure,
               there is significant development pressure around Junction 24, and as this location is also relevant
               to the A453 Multi Modal Study, we feel that it is particularly important to obtain a thorough
               understanding of the traffic volumes and patterns around junctions 23A to 24A. These proposals
               will be defined in more detail in the Scoping Stage of this study, but we would envisage a full
               turning count to be carried out at Junction 24, carried out via registration matching technology or
               via video capture.

2.39           Other M1 junctions will also be subject to classified turning counts to maximise our understanding
               of junction performance in the study area.

               Journey Time Surveys

2.40           Although some Journey Time Surveys may have been collated for local area studies, we feel that it
               is worthwhile to undertake a consistent set of journey timings on relevant routes to identify the
               main congestion points. We therefore propose to undertake surveys on the following routes in
               order to verify the current operating conditions, and to verify that the speed/flow relationships
               used in traffic modelling are adequately reflecting local congestion. A sufficient number of runs
               will be undertaken in both directions for peak, as well as off-peak conditions to ensure that
               ‘typical’ estimates are obtained.

                        Route 1: M1 between Junctions 19 and 32;

                        Route 2: A1 between the A14 at Huntingdon and the M18 at Doncaster;

                        Route 3: A38 from Sutton Coldfield to M1 Junction 28;

                        Route 4: M42 (A42) from the M6 to the M1;

                        Route 5: M69 from the M6 to the M1;

                        Route 6: A46 from the M1 at Leicester to the A1 at Newark-on Trent;

                        Route 7: A60 between Nottingham and Mansfield;

                        Route 8: A6 between Bakewell and Kettering; and

                        Route 9: A606 between Stamford and Nottingham;

2.41           These routes will provide a comprehensive assessment of operating conditions in the study area
               including junction delays. The routes are illustrated on Figure 2.5. These routes include important
               parallel routes to the M1 as well as most strategic feeder routes.


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2.42           Figure 2.4 Through Traffic Survey – Video Camera Locations




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               Network Inventory Surveys

2.43           A network inventory survey of the key routes will also be carried out where information is not
               already available. In the first instance, the inventory survey will encompass the same routes as
               those identified for the journey time surveys.

2.44           This type of survey is extremely useful in identifying local factors on relevant roads and junctions
               in the study area. The inventory will be carried out by in-car video and will be designed to
               identify factors such as:

                        Route alignment and hilliness;

                        Capacity issues such as road narrowing and accesses;

                        Intersection strategies and standards;

                        Parking issues on the Trunk Road and Non-Trunk network; and

                        Accident site locations.

2.45           We shall be reviewing video material held by the Highways Agency before finalising our
               requirements for Network Inventory Surveys. Base year traffic model networks will be modified
               in the light of this specific network inventory, and the information will also be important in the
               feasibility and appraisal of alternative options.

2.46           Accident data will be obtained from the relevant authorities, and clusters examined using the
               network inventory information to identify the main causes.

               Public Transport Surveys

2.47           It is important to note that the main review of data availability and survey need for public transport
               will occur in the scoping stage of the project. The following paragraphs are therefore intended
               only to provide an indication at this stage of the project of the likely project requirements.

2.48           The M1 study has a responsibility to identify and understand all modes used for movement in this
               corridor. Thus, a major component of our study is to develop an understanding of public transport
               movements and usage in the M1 corridor as well as highway movements. A detailed review of
               available data will take place in the Scoping Stage of this Study.




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                                   Figure 2.5 Recommendations for Journey Time Surveys




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2.49           We envisage however that two sources are to be used to provide initial levels of demand on the
               public transport network. These are:

                        Rail (CAPRI) data, if available; and

                        Off-bus surveys, access to route patronage data and localised Electronic Ticket Machine
                         (ETM) data analysis.

2.50           We understand from the SSRA that a demand matrix for rail travel has been developed by the
               HETA division of DETR based upon CAPRI and census information. We would request this data
               and review its suitability for use in this study.

2.51           In addition, this data would be supplemented by interview surveys at the six main railway stations
               in the corridor. These are:

                        Leicester;

                        Loughborough;

                        Derby;

                        Nottingham;

                        Mansfield; and

                        Chesterfield

2.52           It would also be useful to obtain interview data at Sheffield as well as at St Pancras. It is hoped
               that data for the latter could be obtained through the LATS surveys planned to be undertaken over
               the coming months.

2.53           Our initial view is that these interviews should be carried out face-to-face for passengers travelling
               in both peak and off-peak times, but are subject to obtaining permission from Railtrack and the
               relevant Train Operating Companies.

2.54           It is also recommended to undertake interviews at East Coast Main Line (ECML) stations to assess
               the competitiveness between the two railway lines. These surveys would potentially be undertaken
               at Newark, Peterborough and Doncaster. Some information of this type may be available from the
               TOC’s or the SSRA, and these sources will be investigated first to see if information of this type
               can be released.

2.55           We have made initial contact with the SSRA and HETA in order to obtain further details of
               available data. We are also proposing to meet with the local authorities and the Train Operating
               Companies to establish data availability. The survey proposals would therefore be refined and
               confirmed following the various meetings to be held during the scoping stage of the study.

2.56           For bus movements, we recommend that bus interview surveys are carried out on both local and
               regional scheduled services. This is most effectively done by interviewing at bus and coach
               stations at the same towns as listed above. We would also recommend that on-board Bus
               Patronage counts are carried out between major settlements on all available routes to enhance our
               knowledge of public transport movements in the corridor. Finally, observations of bus journey
               times will be compared with timetables to assess the impact of road congestion on bus operation.



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               NEED FOR LIAISON

2.57           The M1 multi modal study clearly interacts with other multi modal studies that have been, or are
               about to be commissioned. These include:

                        A453 Nottingham to M1;

                        London to South Midlands;

                        South and West Yorkshire Box

                        West Midlands to Nottingham; and

                        A38 Derby Junctions Road Based Study

2.58           Our initial concern has been to liase with Pell Frischmann who are managing the A453
               Nottingham to M1 Study, and are working on a similar survey timescale as this study. We have
               had discussions with Pell Frischmann to ensure consistency of approach, with particular focus on
               the survey requirements (avoiding duplication) and modelling needs common to both studies.

2.59           We will seek to do the same with the Managers of the other commissions when they are known.

               OVERVIEW OF KEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND REGENERATION
               ISSUES IN THE STUDY AREA

               A Review of Draft Regional Planning Guidance on the Spatial Development of the East
               Midlands.

2.60           Appropriate investment in transport infrastructure is identified as an important element in seeking
               to ensure economic prosperity, competitiveness and regeneration in the region. The scale and
               nature of the investment required will vary across the region, partly depending upon the nature of
               the economic development considered appropriate.

2.61           Whilst in general the East Midlands Region appears to perform relatively successfully in overall
               terms within a UK context, there are some specific underlying issues which are a cause for future
               concern. These include:

                        A concentration of industry in traditional manufacturing sectors and not in high growth
                         sectors;

                        Poor performance in terms of attracting inward investment;

                        Spatial concentrations of economic and social disadvantage, notably in the larger urban
                         areas and ex-coalfield and some rural communities. These areas perform significantly
                         worse than the region as a whole, and have been identified as regeneration priority areas.

2.62           These are key issues to be addressed for the future economic development of the region, and the
               influence of alternative transport options for the M1 corridor will need to be assessed in terms of
               their impact upon them.

2.63           The Strategy emphasises the inter-relationship between the location of new development (housing,
               employment, retail, leisure and tourism) and the transport infrastructure required to service it. The
               proximity of settlements and development opportunities to the M1 corridor have brought about
               significant economic benefits whilst increasing congestion. Further improvement to strategic

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               transport networks (including railfreight developments) is likely to have major development
               consequences. Only in special circumstances (e.g. in areas of specific regeneration needs) will be
               road building be advocated.

2.64           In strategic terms the RPG sets out the following general guidelines in relation to the location of
               employment land:

                        Major potential inward investment sites are located in the Northern Coalfields and around
                         Junction 24 towards the southern end of the study area, which is also considered a suitable
                         location for future development related to storage and distribution (currently located in the
                         south of the region).

                        Each sub-area will identify strategic high quality employment sites for prestigious
                         development and multiple occupation in use classes B1 and B2 to encourage diversification
                         into knowledge-based sectors and indigenous industry.

                        Sites for high technology business clusters will preferably be close to higher education
                         establishments.

               Other Development Proposals

2.65           Whilst future development opportunities will be shaped by the RPG, there remain substantial
               proposals for commercial and industrial development which do not necessarily conform to the
               spatial framework the emerging RPG is proposing. This emerging framework will take a number
               of years to be translated into statutory development plans.

2.66           There are specific development proposals for example, at Chilwell Dam Farm, Nottingham
               Business Park and the Stanton Ironworks site that would have significant traffic implications for
               the highway network in the vicinity. These and other development proposals will be examined in
               the scoping stage through a review of development plans and discussions with local planning
               authorities. This will provide an understanding of the scale and location of short to medium term
               development activity, whilst the RPG indicates longer-term development plans.

2.67           A number of the proposed inward investment sites are located close to the M1 junctions. Land
               uses generating road freight (e.g. distribution) are suitably located close to the trunk road network.
               However, locating high employment uses (e.g. offices) at out-of-town locations presents
               difficulties in terms of sustainability on transport grounds. There is, therefore, a potential conflict
               between certain forms of economic development and sustainability that needs to be recognised at
               an early stage. We propose to discuss these issues with the RDA and the local planning authorities
               as the study proceeds.

               Sub Regional Issues

               Three Cities Sub-Region

2.68           Addressing high concentrations of deprivation is a primary objective in all three cities. RPG land-
               use transport policies emphasise the need for improved inter-city linkages and future development
               along transport corridors. Priority should be given to provision for knowledge based employment
               uses in Loughborough.

2.69           Development of East Midlands Airport is supported in principal. About 80 hectares of
               employment land is currently allocated and additional allocations for a range of business and
               housing uses in the wider area. Good access by the strategic road network to the airport makes this
               a particularly attractive location for industries which otherwise would be unlikely to locate in the

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               region and guidance consequently seeks to restrict future allocations to these uses. A key issue will
               be accessibility by public transport in the light of increasing demands on the strategic road
               network, and the quantity and location of any additional housing requirements.

               Northern Coalfields Sub-Area

2.70           This area has strong links and inter-dependencies with South Yorkshire as well and Nottingham.
               Regeneration measures are prioritised in and around main towns.

2.71           Large and medium sized towns are a focus for retail more so than businesses or public sector
               services. A key issue here is the re-establishment of these centres as the economic focus for their
               sub-area and the role that transport provision can play in that process (positive and negative).
               RPG gives priority to developing specific Coalfield Regeneration Road schemes.




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3.             STUDY METHODOLOGY

               INTRODUCTION

3.1            In this section of the inception report we expand upon the methodology contained within our
               proposal document. We concentrate here upon the earlier stages of the study: Strategic
               Choice/Consultation and Traffic Modelling. The methodology for the later stages of the study
               would be developed and refined during the scoping stage of the study.

               THE STRATEGIC CHOICE APPROACH

3.2            As explained in the proposal, Strategic Choice is an approach we have used successfully in
               transport strategy development work for some years. The approach will be used in the early
               phases of this project in order to define the nature of the analytical phases of the project.

3.3            In the scoping phase of the project, the approach will be employed in order to examine the
               prime objectives of the project, key problems and issues that have to be addressed and the
               broad strategy options that exist that may ameliorate or resolve them. It is proposed to
               encourage all consultees/stakeholders to address these issues at the outset of the project in the
               scoping phase.

3.4            Work on the nature of different strategy options that may be employed will continue into the
               strategy development phase of the project, across the summer, and culminate in the proposed
               planning conference which will be an important part of the process of defining the analytical
               phases of the project. The work will involve the project management group and representatives
               of the wider reference group at all stages.

               The Approach

3.5            The approach is employed in facilitated workshops at which the variety of interests in a project
               are represented. The facilitators use the approach in order to help those at workshops think
               through the issues in a rational manner, develop a structure to the problem, and reach decisions
               about what to do.

3.6            There are three concepts to the approach:

                   Decision Areas
                        These are essentially things about which decisions must be made and from which
                         specific actions will follow. In any significant problem there will be many of these, and
                         they will almost certainly be interlinked, so that decisions made in one area will have a
                         bearing on decisions elsewhere. Strategic Choice provides useful tools to help
                         participants think through the linkages and the ways in which options in one area might
                         exclude those in another. This stage in the work provides much of the initial structure
                         to the problem.




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                   Comparison areas
                        These are really evaluation criteria, although we have often used the less familiar name
                         since it conveys fewer pre-conceptions about what might be included here. Strategic
                         Choice encourages clear thinking about what the comparison areas are, how they might
                         be measured (if they can be) and the measuring units to use. It provides several useful
                         pictorial devices to handle multiple comparison areas and to compare options or
                         packages of options on multiple criteria.

                   Uncertainty areas
                        Not surprisingly, these are things about which there is doubt or uncertainty. The
                         method encourages participants to think through the importance of uncertainty, and the
                         value of additional information to reduce it. A useful distinction is made between three
                         classes of uncertainty, to help focus thought on what type of action, research etc will
                         most effectively reduce it.

3.7            The Strategic Choice process runs through several stages, but explicitly allows for participants
               to cycle back through stages as necessary as new information becomes available or
               circumstances change. In summary, these stages are:

                        shaping: the process of identifying decision areas and the linkages between them;

                        designing: essentially developing a range of viable 'bundles' of decision options;

                        comparing: the process of comparing alternative bundles using the comparison criteria;

                        choosing: not merely the selection of the 'best', but the progressive thinning out of the
                         choice set, and choice of interim actions to reduce uncertainty.

3.8            A series of workshops across the early phases of the project will lead to the development of
               the various strategy options and the selection of those favoured for more detailed analysis and
               evaluation.

3.9            In preparation for the first strategic choice session for the project management group, it is
               proposed to examine the issues that are uppermost in the minds of the wider reference group
               representatives and the public through preliminary consultation exercises and information
               dissemination about the project.

               Preliminary consultation exercises – outline and timescales

3.10           At the outset of the project it is proposed to obtain information about the key issues of concern
               about travel in the corridor for people living within the area of the study. It is also proposed to
               use the period of the scoping study to begin to establish the prime objectives of the study, from
               the varied points of view represented amongst the wider reference group.

3.11           The mechanisms for these exercises are as follows:

                        6 group discussions in different parts of the area;

                        up to 5 workshops of WRG representatives at different locations in the corridor;

                        a reply-paid questionnaire of users of the M1 at service areas;

                        newsletters for widespread distribution in the area; and

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                        an audit of earlier consultation exercises.

3.12           Figure 3.1 provides details of when it is planned that the various activities are to take place. It
               is proposed to conduct the group discussions first, in advance of the wider reference group
               meetings, and to report the findings to the March meeting of PMG. The WRG meetings will
               then take place before the end of March and a summary report will be presented to the April
               meeting of PMG, which it is proposed might also comprise a day-long strategic choice
               workshop.

3.13           During the period of the scoping study it is also proposed to issue two newsletters, one in late
               March concerning the nature of the project and its timescale and the second, in mid-May
               covering problems and issues identified in the Scoping Study. It is envisaged that the draft
               content of each leaflet will be presented to the project management group for comment in
               advance of printing and circulation. It is proposed that the first leaflet will invite the public to
               forward comments on any key issues of concern or possible solutions for the benefit of the
               project team.

3.14           The outputs of these various preliminary consultation exercises and the strategic choice
               workshop will contribute to the Scoping Study report, contributing particularly to the
               following:

                        the audit of problems affecting the area;

                        recommendations on the scope of the study;

                        recommendations on future consultation requirements; and

                        recommendations on the issues to be addressed.




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                                                 Figure 3.1 Consultation Programme




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               DETAILS OF THE CONSULTATION EXERCISES DURING THE SCOPING
               PHASE

               Discussion Groups

3.15           Focus groups with members of the public will be held within three areas of the corridor:

                        Leicester/Loughborough;

                        Nottingham/Derby; and

                        Chesterfield/Mansfield/Bolsover

3.16           Two groups will be held in each area. Each will include a range of age groups and ethnic
               backgrounds with an even split by gender. The target number of participants will be eight.
               One group will comprise those who make the majority of trips by car, but have experienced
               travel by public transport within the previous twelve months. The other group will be made up
               of people who travel mainly by public transport, buses and/or trains, though they may also
               have experience of making journeys by car, either as a driver or as a passenger. The groups
               will be selected by undertaking on-street surveys to ensure a representative sample.

3.17           The groups will be conducted in hotels with good access from each of the urban areas, on
               weekday evenings. Travelling expenses will be reimbursed and group members each paid an
               attendance fee.

3.18           A member of Steer Davies Gleave’s professional staff will moderate the groups. The
               discussion will encompass issues relating both to long distance travel within the corridor and
               to short distance trips within group members' own localities. Each session will cover the same
               discussion guide to ensure that every topic of interest is covered although, by their very nature,
               the groups will develop the discussion in their own way, according to the interests and
               opinions of the participants.

3.19           The discussion guide will include:

                        participants' characteristics and background;

                        north-south travel patterns in the corridor by purpose frequency, mode and route;

                        public transport service availability and perceptions of quality;

                        perceptions of the road network - interurban and local;

                        problems encountered - what/when and where;

                        potential solutions;

                        willingness to change travel habits/what would stimulate change; and

                        overall major issues for the corridor in order of priority

3.20           Each group will be recorded on tape and transcribed fully to facilitate comprehensive analysis.




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               Meetings with Wider Reference Group Representatives

3.21           To ensure that all perspectives in the area are brought into the study, five workshops will be
               held with representatives of the wider reference group. Workshop venues will be spread
               throughout the study area in the major areas of population:-

                        Chesterfield;

                        Mansfield;

                        Derby;

                        Nottingham; and

                        Leicester.

3.22           The sessions will take place, during weekdays, at times and venues most convenient for those
               invited. Attendance will be by invitation only, with up to 20 people invited on each occasion.
               Each will be given the opportunity to contribute fully - the approach and the experience of the
               moderator will ensure that all views are represented fairly, with no one present allowed to
               dominate the proceedings.

3.23           It will be important for these sessions to build on rather than simply reiterate organisations'
               stated views and policies. The value of the time available (approximately two hours) will be
               maximised by giving the participants prior information regarding the purpose of the event and
               some background concerning the overall purpose of the study

3.24           In addition, each of those invited will be given a series of four questions to encourage them to
               begin thinking about transport-related issues, and their possible solutions, within the corridor.
               This process will allow representatives to liaise with their colleagues before the event as
               appropriate. The questions posed will be:

                        What are the most important transport related issues and problems facing the area now?

                        What do you consider will be the most important problems and issues facing the area in
                         five years' time, bearing in mind any proposals currently being implemented?

                        What do you think can be done to improve the situation? and

                        What would you or your organisation do to contribute to creating changes?

3.25           The points raised will be recorded on flip charts. Previous experience has shown that
               participants react very positively when they can see the points they are making being written
               down. It contributes to the feeling of being genuinely involved in the identification of issues
               and the development of options/policies.

               Views of Key Stakeholders

3.26           It is proposed to hold a one day workshop involving PMG members in April. This will
               provide the opportunity for all key stakeholders to express their views to the consultant and
               other members. In addition, we propose to hold one-to-one meetings with key PMG/RSG
               members during the scoping stage of the study.




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               Views of Users of the M1

3.27           Gaining participation from users of the M1, particularly those making long distance trips
               through the study area, or to/from places outside the area will be achieved through direct
               contact with drivers, in addition to that made during the Roadside Interview Surveys. The
               range and depth of information which can be obtained in such circumstances is limited
               essentially to destination, origin, vehicle type, journey purpose and party size.

3.28           More detailed investigation of issues such as journey frequency, mode choice, route choice,
               problems and potential for mode change will be obtained by inviting drivers to fill in a self-
               completion questionnaire and post it back, at no cost to themselves. Drivers will be
               intercepted at motorway service areas on one weekday and a Saturday.

               Views of Users on Passenger Transport Services

3.29           Public transport users will be intercepted at the main bus and railway stations in Leicester,
               Nottingham, Derby, Loughborough and Chesterfield. Face to face interviews will be
               conducted with travellers waiting at the stations, on a weekday and a Saturday. The issues
               covered will include journey purpose and frequency, mode choice, perceptions of quality of
               service, and the potential for increased use of the mode, in addition to/instead of the car.

               Consultation Audit

3.30           To ensure that the study is able to draw on all available data, an audit of consultation activity
               along the corridor over the last three years will be undertaken. Contact will be made with each
               of the county councils and unitary authorities within the corridor to determine whether any
               form of consultation has been undertaken in relation to transport issues. Where such exercises
               have been undertaken, details will be requested regarding the objectives of the consultation,
               the methodology and the results.

               Project Newsletter

3.31           As noted in the brief, there is a need to produce a newsletter, possibly as frequently as six
               times per year, to inform a very wide audience of the study's progress and the emerging issues.
               During the scoping phase of the study a pro-forma will be designed for a double-sided one-
               page A4 leaflet.

3.32           It is anticipated that the initial newsletter will be ready for the Steering Group's approval
               within the first six weeks. This will explain the purpose of the study, and give some details of
               the initial tasks being undertaken in the identification of problems and issues. The opportunity
               will be taken to invite participation in the process - from interested groups and individuals.

               MODELLING

               Overview

3.33           Our proposal pointed out the need for simplicity of approach and transparency of the model
               processes in the development of a potentially complex multi-modal model. In order to achieve
               this, we will develop a highway model, a public transport model and a mode choice model
               separately, but with consistent outputs so that the three models can be combined to forecast
               transport movements in the corridor. The key is to have an assessment tool to understand the
               present travel patterns based on the comprehensive data collection exercise as described in the
               previous section.

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3.34           In addition to the three main models, we shall be using a Freight model to test the impact upon
               freight movements of different land use/transport strategies as well as different policy
               interventions. The output from the freight model would be used to adjust the highway demand
               matrices reflecting for example, a switch from road to other modes.

3.35           We have illustrated our intended approach in the form of three flowcharts, and these are
               presented overleaf. The flowcharts are:

                        Figure 3.2 - The development of the SATURN Highway Model;

                        Figure 3.3 - The development of the SATCHMO Public Transport Model; and

                        Figure 3.4 - The development of the Mode Choice Model.

3.36           Each flowchart clearly shows the main tasks within each Study Phase, and the linkages
               between each task. All of the flowcharts demonstrate the three strands of model development,
               namely survey data, network information, and demand matrix formation. Each of the three
               models is described in more detail in the following sections.




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                                    Figure 3.2 Development of the Saturn Highway Model




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                                 Figure 3.3 Development of the Public Transport Model




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                                     Figure 3.4 Development of the Mode Choice Model
                                      Figure 3.4 Development of the Mode Choice Model

                                    Purpose 1. Assessment of Forecast Year Operating Conditions
                                    :       2. To Test Patronage Effects of Alternative Public
                                               Transport Provision




                   PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL                                                             HIGHWAY MODEL



                               Forecast Year                                                              Forecast Year
                                                                                                          Do Minimum
                                Assignments
                                                                                                           Assignments



                                                                                   Derive
     Derive Walk              Derive In Vehicle              Derive Wait                                Derive In Vehicle
                                                                                 Interchange
     Time Matrix                Time (IVT)                   Time Matrix                                  Time (IVT)
                                                                                   Matrix
                                  Matrix                                                                    Matrix




                                                      Behavioural          PT Fares             Car Park
                                                      Parameters            Matrix             Fares Matrix




                 Car Not                                                    MODE CHOICE                                 Car
                 Available                                                    MODEL                                   Available
                  Matrix                                                                                               Matrix




                                                                 PT Person                      Highway Vehicle
                                                                Matrix after                    Matrix after Mode
                                                                Mode Choice                          Choice




                                                                Factor Time                        Factor Time
                                                               Period Matrices                   Period Matrices to
                                                                 to 24 Hour                           24 hour




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               The Highway Model - Survey Data

               Overview

3.37           The first task has been to undertake a detailed review of all available traffic flow data in the
               model area. This review was reported in the previous section. The extent and availability of
               data has determined the specification of additional surveys, and these are summarised below:

                        23 additional Roadside Interview Surveys;

                        five additional RSI located at the M1 motorway service areas;

                        through Traffic Survey (video) for northbound movements on the M1;

                        manual Classified Counts at the RSI locations;

                        turning Counts at key motorway and other junctions1;

                        journey Time Surveys for the M1, parallel routes and feeder roads; and

                        a Network Inventory to identify local factors on key links and at key junctions.

3.38           Having collected the above data the next stage of the process, the development of the Base
               Year Traffic model, involves three main areas of work.

                        the development of the Base Year Highway Network, reflecting the existing highway
                         system, which allows the model to establish how the trips use the existing highway
                         infrastructure;

                        the construction of Base Year Trip Matrices, from the OD and traffic count surveys,
                         which provide the model with the traffic movements it requires; and

                        the validation of the Base Year model traffic assignments ensuring that the model
                         reproduces, within certain tolerance limits, the current travel patterns experienced.

3.39           These are discussed below.

               The Highway Model – Network Development

               Overview

3.40           We will use the SATURN suite of programs to develop the highway model. The model would
               be developed in buffer format. The model would be sufficiently detailed to reflect existing
               conditions and to identify key stress points in the network.




1
    We already have turning counts for M1 junctions 29 and 30.
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               Definition of Study Area

3.41           Our proposed study area is shown in Figure 3.5. Although this study is focused on the M1
               between junctions 21 and 30, we have extended the area for appraisal in order to take account
               of major strategic parallel routes such as the A1 and alternative feeder routes from the West
               Midlands conurbation.

               Strategic Network

3.42           This extended area will be modelled in less detail and is termed the ‘skeletal’ area. The
               skeletal area is designed to incorporate all of the highway and public transport routes that may
               impact upon the M1. The boundary of the skeletal area includes:

                        A14, which acts as a link between the M1 and parallel A1;

                        A38, acting as a alternative feeder road from the Midlands to the M1;

                        M18, which also acts as a link between the M1 and A1 in the north of the study area;
                         and

                        A1, which acts as a parallel alternative to longer distance traffic.

3.43           During the Scoping Stage of this study, we shall further consider the extent of the network to
               be included in the highway model. It is possible that some revisions will occur to incorporate
               more strategic journeys.

               Link Types

3.44           The model network must be capable of reflecting the different classes of roads in the scheme
               area and the differing effects of increased traffic flow, in terms of link speed, on each class of
               road. Each link type will be defined explicitly within the highway model.

               Capacity Review

3.45           The definition of link and junction capacities is of fundamental importance to both the
               development of the highway model and for option appraisal. A good deal of empirical
               research has been undertaken on effective link capacities, and this will form the basis of the
               link capacities input for each link of the highway model.

               Flow/Delay

3.46           As well as the definition of capacity on a link or junction, we will incorporate recommended
               flow/delay relationships for each link type. These recommendations will be initially based on
               research reported in the DETR’S Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB), but will be
               amended from evidence from the network inventory survey or journey time surveys if
               necessary.




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                                                     Figure 3.5 Scope of Model Area




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               The Highway Model – Matrix Development

3.47           Different vehicle types need to be modelled separately, as they can have different impacts on
               the effective road capacity. In addition, light vehicles would need to be isolated by their
               journey purpose as each purpose would react differently to public transport initiatives,
               imposition of green transport plans and other traffic management measures

3.48           The matrices used in this type of project should therefore represent a reasonably wide
               spectrum of market segments and vehicle types; for example, light goods vehicles and heavy
               goods vehicles need to be separate from car business, car non business and commuters.

               Zoning System

3.49           Model zones will initially be based on the district boundaries, but with aggregation of zones in
               areas remote from the M1, and possibly disaggregation of zones close to major junctions or
               new developments. Each major development would be allocated a separate zone to enable an
               investigation of impacts during the assessment stages.

3.50           The existing O-D dataset for our road traffic studies in north-east Derbyshire are held in
               electronic, postcoded format, and can easily be adopted to our proposed zoning system. Other
               datasets can also be adapted from whatever format that they are currently held.

3.51           All new O-D information will be coded to postcodes to give maximum flexibility for their use
               in other multi modal studies (e.g. A453 MMS).

               Matrix Building

3.52           Our initial view is that trip matrices will be built for three time periods, namely:

                        AM Peak period;

                        Inter peak period; and

                        PM Peak period.

3.53           These time periods have been selected to take account of differing operating conditions and
               OD patterns at different times of the day. The peak periods would extend for a minimum of
               two hours. Whatever hours are finally chosen, outputs will be factored to daily levels after
               taking the daily profiles fully into account. For the Appraisal Phase of this study to be
               effective, it is important to understand the different traffic and public transport movements
               during the different periods of the day.

3.54           Time period factors will be derived to aggregate modelled flows to represent 12-hour traffic
               volumes, as well as to represent daily traffic volumes. Consideration will also be given to any
               significant daily or seasonal variations in traffic by analysing long-term automatic traffic count
               information.

               Data Merging

3.55           Given the location of the new and existing O-D sites, it is clearly possible for one O-D
               movement to pass through more than one site. As this is a common source of potential error in
               that double counting of trips may occur, we have a clearly defined methodology and checking
               process in operation that will ensure that the final matrices are a fair reflection of actual
               movements.
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               The Highway Model – Calibration/Validation

3.56           The type of assignment process adopted must also be capable of producing reflective traffic
               assignments that, in the latter stages of the project, can take account of congestion and it’s
               effects such as trip suppression, journey re-timing etc. Thus, there will be different
               assignments produced for different periods of the day or, indeed, time of year. The
               requirements will be defined in detail after an evaluation of long-term traffic count data.

3.57           The validation of the model is subject to certain limits, the determination of which would be
               dependent on the scale of the model and the amount of independent (i.e. not used in the model
               building process) survey data available for checking against. As a minimum, the model would
               be checked against:

                        Observed traffic flows at particular locations;

                        Observed turning moves at critical junctions;

                        Number and proportion of longer distance traffic on each section of M1, identified from
                         the through traffic survey;

                        journey times between selected points.

               The Highway Model – Forecasting

3.58           The future year traffic models need to bring together the networks and matrices from the
               validated Base Year Model. This process is the key to the viability of the traffic forecasting
               procedure and involves the following elements:

                        the production of future year highway networks that replicate the development of the
                         highway system, as defined by committed schemes for each forecast year;

                        the creation of future year trip matrices for the same years as determined by the
                         development of the highway networks. The matrices will be created by the application
                         of traffic growth adjustment factors as described below.

               Network Changes

3.59           The Local Transport Plans for Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire will be
               reviewed to identify any future year changes to the network. Allied to this review, all
               development proposals that result in network changes will be incorporated, and liaison with
               the HA via the HA Business Plan and consultation will be undertaken. The consultation
               process with the HA, Regional Steering Group and the Wider Reference Group will be
               fundamental to derive all schemes relevant to this study.

               Growth in Demand

3.60           The assessment of the growth in demand is more complex. The first stage is to incorporate
               estimates of new trips to/from committed developments. Rather than calculate the levels of
               demand generated by these new developments, we will critically review existing documents to
               examine to use agreed trip rates and distributions and take account of arrivals by public
               transport. Clearly, there will be some developments not yet committed but worthy of inclusion
               and we will seek agreement with the Regional Steering Group as to the certainty of these
               developments.



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3.61           It may be that sensitivity tests are undertaken to assess the effects of different development
               assumptions or generation rates. It is clear from our preliminary review that the growth
               forecasts at East Midlands Airport are significant and, thus clear agreement will have to be
               reached on future levels of airport related traffic growth.

3.62           The second stage is to examine the DETR’s National Trip End Model (NTEM) to define
               growth factors for each district in the study area. The NTEM factors are available at five-
               yearly intervals for different journey purposes. The factors represent growth in district trip
               ends and employment places and are often taken as a proxy for traffic growth. Longer
               distance external trips are subject to growth in line with the DETR’s National Road Traffic
               Forecasts (NRTF).

3.63           Finally, the overall growth for internal trips would be constrained to the NTEM/NRTF growth
               rates so that higher than average growth is forecast in development areas and lower than
               average growth elsewhere in the network.

3.64           The Base Year matrices can then be adjusted to obtain future year demands by a range of
               factors taking account of major land-use developments and other external or ‘over-and-above’
               factors such as those forecast at East Midlands Airport.

               Assignment Forecasts

3.65           It is critical that the results of the future year traffic model are seen to be believable by all the
               members of the Steering Group. The interpretation of these results determines whether or not
               the model is behaving in a sensible fashion and forecasting traffic that is in line with
               expectation.

3.66           These Do-Minimum assignments represent a benchmark against which variant assignments
               can be compared. These variant assignments would include sensitivity tests based on
               alternative development assumptions, but also to assess the effects of:

                        Policy interventions;

                        Development of options to reduce traffic;

                        Development of options to reduce pollution;

                        Testing public transport alternatives; and

                        Testing of options to improve safety.

3.67           The SATURN highway model is merely an assessment tool that can quantify the effects of
               strategic and/or local initiatives.

               THE PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL

               Overview

3.68           The purpose of a public transport model is to provide estimates of public transport demand and
               costs between origins and destinations in the M1 corridor. This will enable the impacts of
               alternative strategies to be quantified. The PT model must be capable of reproducing current
               passenger flows as well as accurate times and costs for such journeys, and must be compatible
               to the estimates of times and costs produced by the highway model. The outputs from the


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               Public Transport model will be an effective tool in the Strategy Development and Appraisal
               Phases of this study.

3.69           Figure 3.2 illustrates the key tasks involved with the development of the Public Transport
               Model. These are discussed in more detail below.

               Survey Data

               Overview

3.70           The first task will be to undertake a thorough review of existing information. Published
               timetables for buses and trains in the corridor will be obtained to define the network and
               frequency of services.

3.71           The previous section described how existing sources of potential demand data will be
               examined first to provide initial levels of demand on the public transport network. If
               available, the data sources to be reviewed are the CAPRI Rail data, and off-bus surveys, access
               to route patronage data and localised Electronic Ticket Machine (ETM) data.

3.72           These data will be supplemented by additional Rail and Bus OD surveys, carried out either at
               stations or on-board services to identify longer distance users. In addition, bus journey times
               and patronage counts will be carried out between major centres to assess current usage and
               performance.

3.73           To maintain a consistent approach nationally, the SSRA has suggested a form of questionnaire
               to be used for interviews with rail passengers. We propose to adopt a similar format in
               principal, however we are concerned at the level of detail within the form suggested by the
               SSRA. We believe the level of detail may not be required for this study and also have
               concerns regarding the impact upon resourcing and cost of such a detailed questionnaire. We
               shall discuss this with the SSRA during the scoping stage of the study.




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               The Public Transport Model – Network Development

               Network Coding (SATCHMO)

3.74           A simple SATCHMO Model will be built based on published timetables from public transport
               operators. All train and bus services in the corridor will be coded within SATURN, so that the
               highway and public transport network can be shown on the same geographic base.

3.75           The coding includes nodes at the following locations:

                        All alighting/boarding locations; and

                        Where routes converge or diverge

3.76           For the bus network, the nodes and linkages would mostly coincide with the SATURN
               highway network. All bus routes will be coded in this way, but if the bus route uses a road not
               included in our modelling exercise, the routes will be incorporated and non-buses banned.

3.77           A similar coding exercise will take place for the rail network. Clearly, all road-based traffic
               will be banned from using rail links.

3.78           The rail network will extend beyond the skeletal area shown in Figure 3.5 as longer distance
               movements on the M1 are in competition with the East Coast Main Line (ECML). The rail
               network is easier to extend within the model as the range of origins and destinations are less.

3.79           The bus and train service frequencies will match the time periods suggested for this study.
               Thus, service frequencies will be identified for the morning and evening peak hours, an inter-
               peak hour, and an off-peak hour. These frequencies will be coded into SATCHMO to enable a
               realistic estimate of public transport journey times and wait times to be established.

               The Public Transport Model – Matrix Development

               Existing Demand

3.80           Subject to availability, existing information might supply an initial starting point for the
               assessment of demand in the M1 corridor. This information will have to be converted into
               zone to zone movements based on the same zoning system as that defined for the highway
               model. Compatibility of zoning is paramount to achieve consistency of assessment, and to aid
               the mode choice element of this study.

               Data Merging

3.81           Any new OD information would be coded to a pre-defined zoning system and can thus easily
               be assimilated with existing information. As for the merging of the highway demand matrices,
               we would be particularly careful to avoid double counting, and would seek to validate the
               overall demand against the observed situation.

               The Public Transport Model – Calibration/Validation

3.82           The public transport demand flows will be compared against the observed base year situation
               by checking modelled outputs against:

                        Observed patronage counts across pre-defined screenlines;
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                        Observed sector-to-sector movements between major settlements obtained via the
                         CAPRI or ETM data;

                        Published timetable journey times and observed bus journey times.

               The Public Transport Model – Forecasting

               Modelling of Service Changes

3.83           The franchised train operating companies (TOCs) in this corridor are GNER, Midland
               Mainline, Central Trains and Virgin Cross Country. All of these TOCs have service
               development commitments that they must make to fulfil their agreements with the Shadow
               Strategic Rail Authority. The TOCs may also have additional service improvements that they
               may wish to introduce. We will model our changes to the public transport network by
               undertaking a thorough consultation process with the TOCs and other interested parties.

3.84           The situation for bus companies is less regulated, in that the role of inter-urban bus services is
               not addressed in current Government policy. New and improved bus routes have opened
               however, and thus, we will seek consultation with all local bus operating companies and
               longer distance coach services to provide a view of most-likely future year bus provision. Bus
               strategies are in cause of preparation in each of the three cities, and in Nottinghamshire, and
               these will also be taken into account appropriately through discussions with the Councils.

               Growth in Demand

3.85           The methodology to estimate future year rail and bus demand will be defined in more detail in
               the Scoping Phase of our study. Our initial view is that we would seek to obtain the TOC’s
               opinion on expected growth due to improved service provision, and could verify the scope of
               the predicted growth by comparing against:

                        network capacity, measured in terms of headways, carriageway availability and current
                         load factors;

                        any previously defined estimates.

3.86           For bus passenger growth, we would have estimates of current load factors and would also
               seek views on future demand, before finalising our growth assumptions.

               THE MODE CHOICE MODEL

               Overview

3.87           Figure 3.3 shows the key tasks involved in the development of the Mode Choice Model. The
               mode choice model will be developed and run separately from the highway and public
               transport models to ensure simplicity of approach.

3.88           The purpose of the Mode Choice Model is to assess and quantify the effects of modal shift
               from car to public transport from changes to either car journey or public transport service
               provision or journey costs.




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               Public Transport Model Inputs

3.89           The purpose of the SATCHMO public transport model is to generate public transport and
               vehicle matrices from a change in costs due to the implementation of a transport strategy. For
               these estimates to be robust, the PT model must derive estimates of:

                        An In-Vehicle-Time (IVT) matrix from zonal pairs;

                        A walk time matrix from origin zone to boarding point, or from alighting stop to
                         destination zone;

                        A wait time matrix at alighting points; and

                        An interchange matrix from one PT mode to another.

3.90           Each zone to zone movement must have a value for each of the above types of matrices. For
               example, if Zone A to Zone B involves a long walk to a bus stop, significant wait time and an
               interchange onto another bus, then positive time values will be input into each matrix.

3.91           The time matrices are to be converted into a cost matrix by the application of passenger values
               of time.

3.92           Finally, the public transport demand matrix will be split into a ‘Car Not Available’ matrix (not
               subject to Mode Choice), and a ‘Car Available’ matrix, which would be available to mode
               choice. Estimates of car availability will be taken from Bus and Train OD surveys.

               Highway Model Inputs

3.93           The inputs to the Mode Choice Model from the highway model are simpler. These are:

                        In Vehicle Time Matrix defined as the journey time between each zonal pair converted
                         into a monetary value;

                        Other cost matrices, such as vehicle operating costs based on each zone-to-zone
                         movement, and access/egress costs from car parking areas to the final destination;

                        Parking cost matrices based on a review of existing and proposed parking areas; and

                        The total demand matrix converted into a person matrix by the application of observed
                         occupancy factors, and termed ‘Car Available’ Matrix.

               Calibration

3.94           The Base Year levels of car and PT demand and journey times will be fed through the Mode
               Choice Model to effectively self-validate the existing situation, in that feeding in Base Year
               travel costs, will output modal shares. These outputs will be checked for range and logic.

3.95           Each of the parameters into the Mode Choice process can be calibrated to achieve logical and
               acceptable results. The calibration tools include:

                        Variation of central estimates of values of time for certain user classes or OD
                         movements;

                        A higher weighting of wait time;


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                        A higher weighting of walk time;

                        Variation of modal constant against public transport;

                        A different weighting to the interchange penalty; and

                        Adjustment of the mode choice scaling parameter.

3.96           The choice of cross-mode elasticities can have a significant effect on mode choice estimates.
               Work on Midland Mainline and on other studies can help to provide an initial view of the
               parameters and elasticities to use, and our experience in the understanding of mode choice
               parameters can also lend confidence to an initial choice of these parameters.

               Use of Mode Choice Model Results

3.97           The Mode Choice Model will provide estimates of forecast matrices of highway and public
               transport demand for each time period based upon any cost changes following testing of
               alternative strategies. These time period estimates can be combined to provide daily estimates
               of modal shift and network reaction to strategies.

3.98           By feeding back into the Highway and Public Transport Model, new assignments can be run to
               quantify any environmental, economic or financial effects of any strategy.

3.99           In summary therefore, the outputs from the three Models is an integral part of the Appraisal
               Phase and sufficient resources must be given to their development to ensure that the
               Development Strategy and Option Appraisal Phases can operate successfully.

               LAND-USE/ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND REGENERATION ISSUES.

               Phase 2 – Scoping

3.100          Work on development and regeneration issues during the Scoping Phase will comprise the
               following tasks:

                        Review the relationship between transport issues and regeneration in the UDPs, Local
                         Transport Plans and Regional Planning Guidance for the Spatial Development of the
                         East Midlands;

                        Review the emerging economic development and regeneration priorities with the
                         Objective 2 Plan and East Midlands Development Agency’s Regional Economic
                         Strategy

                        Review major proposals and allocations for development, for both housing and
                         employment change, as set out in current and emerging development plans at County,
                         District and Unitary level.

3.101          It will also be necessary at this stage to collect research material to inform strategy
               development and option appraisal. This will include:

                        The significance of transport costs to different economic sectors;

                        Tourism visitor numbers and associated spend – from Tourist Board and secondary
                         sources;

                        Patterns of retail spend from retail impact studies;

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                        Effect of time/distance/travel costs impact upon visitor and shopper behaviour – from
                         previous studies (in the region and elsewhere);

                        How far labour supply issues are a constraint on growth in specific areas;

                        Levels of car ownership by area; and

                        Effect of transport accessibility on patterns of job search for residents of priority
                         regeneration areas (e.g. northern coalfields) from local studies.

3.102          In addition, we would also consider the following, but any detailed work will be undertaken in
               Phase 4:

                        The effects of transport issues in shaping the ways in which firms configure their
                         operations. Region specific effects could be explored through consultation; and

                        Inward investment flows into the region - the role of accessibility in constraining or
                         shaping investment flows could be explored through consultation.

               Phase 4 – Strategy Development

3.103          Based upon work undertaken in stage 2 we will highlight the key transport constraints on the
               economic development and regeneration process in the region, highlighting links with social
               exclusion issues and suggesting, where relevant, potential means of addressing these barriers
               to growth and inclusion. We would also explore the potential interactions between land use
               /development choices and transport capacity in the longer term.

3.104          The work to be undertaken during this stage will be further developed through the scoping
               stage. However, this Phase this could include a specific assessment of the extent to which
               transport issues represent an actual or potential constraint on the development of particular
               areas (e.g. Northern Coalfields).

               Phase 5 – Identification of Options

3.105          This is likely to be a thinking process with the team participating in group discussions rather
               than producing major outputs. This will provide inputs to the Strategic Choice process in
               terms of:

                        Identification of potential transport related actions to address problems of social
                         exclusion in priority areas;

                        Suggested actions to overcome transport related constraints on regeneration in priority
                         areas and inward investment;

                        Identification of potential adverse effects of policy options on regeneration and social
                         inclusion and how these might be mitigated.

3.106          This input will be informed by:

                        The regional and local evidence reviewed in Phase 2

                        Transport outputs from the modelling process, specifically in terms of the impacts of
                         options on levels and patterns of accessibility.




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               Phase 7 – Option Appraisal

3.107          The economic rationale for intervention will be dealt with as a matter of course during the
               transport CBA conducted as part of the appraisal. The analytical framework used to determine
               the total economic impact of interventions and the associated gains and losses in terms of
               economic activity will be derived from the SACTRA work and focus on:

                        Effects on business costs;

                        Rationalisation effects (internal substitution/competition effects)

                        Effects on inward investment flows

                        Effects on tourism/visitor numbers and patterns of retail spend;

                        Effects in changing the labour market catchment areas of firms and alleviating labour
                         market supply chains

                        Potential effects in modifying the job search patterns of those who are socially excluded
                         or at risk of social exclusion.




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4.             PROGRAMME

4.1            The study is to be completed within a 24 month period. The timescales set out in the study
               brief for the individual phases are shown in Table 4.1 below. It will be necessary however, for
               a number of the tasks to be undertaken concurrently to comply with the overall study
               programme of 24 months.

                                                     Table 4.1: Suggested Outline Study Programme

                    Study Inception                                                  6 weeks
                    Scoping Phase                                                    3 months
                    Traffic Surveys/Modelling                                        Starting April/May 2000
                    Strategy                                                         4 months
                    Identification of Options                                        8 months
                    First Consultation                                               1 month
                    Option Appraisal                                                 8 months
                    Second Consultation                                              1 month
                    Recommendation & Implementation Plan                             3 months



4.2            A programme indicating a 24-month study period was included within the proposal document.
               A detailed programme would be included in the Scoping Report. At the present time, we
               include here as Figure 4.1 a programme for Stages 2 and 3 of the study. This shows that the
               critical activity of collecting traffic/travel data would be undertaken in the spring, thus
               maintaining the overall original programme.

               MEETINGS

               Project Management Group

4.3            Progress meetings with the Project Management Group shall take place on a monthly basis.
               With the overlap of Project Management Group members of the A453 study, progress
               meetings for both studies are to be held on the same day with the M1 study meeting in the
               morning and the A453 meeting in the afternoon. All meetings are to be held at the
               Government Office for the East Midlands in Nottingham.




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                                       Figure 4.1 Work Programme - Surveys/Modelling




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4.4            Project Management Group meetings will generally take place on the third Wednesday of each
               month. The following dates for have been agreed for 2000:



                                            Meeting No.                      Date
                                                    1                     16 February
                                                    2                       15 March
                                                    3                       19 April
                                                    4                       17 May
                                                    5                       21 June
                                                    6                       19 July
                                                    7                      16 August
                                                    8                     20 September
                                                    9                      18 October
                                                   10                     15 November
                                                   11                     20 December

4.5            It is envisaged that the meeting of 19 April will be a full day workshop facilitated by the
               Consultants. Further such workshops will take place in subsequent phases.

               Regional Steering Group

4.6            The Regional Steering Group (RSG) is to maintain an overview of the study and also of other
               studies within the region. The first meeting of the RSG is planned to take place on 28 February
               2000. Meetings of the RSG are to take place at approximately quarterly intervals.

               Wider Reference Group

4.7            The Wider Reference Group (WRG) consists of representative organisations with an interest in
               the study. As the M1 study area covers the A453 study area, much of the WRG membership is
               common to both studies. The first meeting of the WRG with the consultants took place on 11
               February 2000. This meeting was arranged primarily for the benefit of the A453 study. The
               M1 study consultant was also present in order briefly to introduce the study context and to
               meet with Wider Reference Group representatives with particular interest in the M1 Study.

4.8            Meetings with the WRG are expected to take place at six monthly intervals. Contact would be
               maintained at other times, particularly during the public consultation stages of the study.




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5.             MANAGEMENT PLAN

               INTRODUCTION

5.1            One of the keys to the success of projects of this nature is how they are set up. In order to do this
               effectively and efficiently there is a requirement for the development and application of sound and
               vigorous project management processes and disciplines from day one. A cornerstone to the
               process and the baseline for the project will be the Management Plan described in this Chapter.

5.2            The elements of the Management Plan are:

                        Aims and Objectives

                        Deliverables

                        Scope of Work

                        Roles and Responsibility

                        Work Programme

                        Cost Plan and Control

                        Reporting Mechanisms

                        Risk Management

                        Change Management

               AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

5.3            The study’s aims and objectives are defined in the Study Brief issued by Government Office for
               the East Midlands. These are to:

                        Carry out an in-depth appraisal of the total transport needs of the M1 corridor between
                         junctions 21 and 30, at present and for the future to the year 2021, considering:

                                   the contributions which different modes of transport can make to developing
                                    alternative solutions to problems; and

                                   the potential effects on an integrated transport approach.

                                   identify viable, sustainable and costed options for future measures to address current
                                    and forecast problems; and

                                   recommend a long term strategy to address strategic transport problems;

                                   A plan to address the most urgent transport problems across all modes, seeking
                                    opportunities for modal transfer whilst ensuring consistency with the long term
                                    strategy; and

                                   A range of detailed measures required to implement the strategy, showing the
                                    potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of each option.

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5.4            The aims and objectives of the study will be delivered through this eight-phase consultancy study.

               DELIVERABLES

5.5            The study deliverables have been defined in our tender submission. The structure of each
               deliverable will be developed in consultation with the Project Management Group and will be
               approved by Government Office for the East Midlands. Each deliverable will be available in draft
               for comment by the Project Management Group prior to finalisation and acceptance by
               Government Office for the East Midlands. A summary schedule of deliverables is given in Table
               5.1.

                                                                  Table 5.1: Schedule of Deliverables

              Title                                                                                Date Draft Due for Project
                                                                                                     Management Group
              Inception Report                                                                            14 February
              Scoping Report                                                                                28 April
              Survey Report                                                                                 17 July
              Model Development Report                                                                    6 October*
              Do-Minimum Forecasts Report                                                                 13 October*
              Strategy Development Report                                                                 13 October*
              Option Identification Report                                                                April 2001*
              Consultation Report                                                                         May 2001*
              Option Appraisal Report                                                                   September 2001*
              Recommendations and Implementation Plan                                                   November 2001*
               *provisional date only
5.6            In addition to the main deliverables listed above, we expect to submit various Technical
               Notes/Working Papers documenting sub-elements of the individual study stages. In many
               instances these papers would be collated and summarised to form the main report for each study
               stage. The PMG members would therefore have sight of much of the content of the reports in
               advance of the dates suggested above.

               SCOPE OF WORK

5.7            The scope of work and methodology for much of the study has been described in Chapters 2 and 3
               of this Inception Report.

5.8            Phase 2, the ‘Scoping Stage’ will develop in more detail the scope of the following stages of the
               study.

               ROLES, RESPONSIBILITIES AND RESOURCES

               Project Management Group

5.9            The government is keen to ensure maximum participation in the multi-modal studies as it
               recognises the local knowledge, advice and expertise is essential to understanding fully problems
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               within the study areas. It also recognises that local ownership of the solutions to these problems is
               essential if they are to be delivered successfully. The Project Management Group for the study is
               therefore made up of key partners within the study area. The group will meet on a monthly basis.

5.10           The role of the Group is to provide on-going advice and guidance to the study consultants and GO
               study managers during the study and to provide a source of knowledge, experience and
               information from which the consultants can draw. The Project Management Group also has an
               important role in monitoring the results emerging from the study and advising on their practicality
               and scope as well as their consistency with other plans and programmes. The Project Management
               Group will provide a focus through which wider views can be fed into the study process.

5.11           Members of the Project Management Group are expected to bring the views and experience of
               their respective organisations to the Project Management Group, but not officially represent their
               interests. The Group will be expected to form a view on the findings of the consultant and, where
               possible, make recommendations to the Regional Planning Body.

5.12           Budgetary control of the study will rest with the Government Office study managers who, with
               Project Management Group advice, will manage the study work programme and study outputs,
               and instruct the consultants to carry out specified areas of work. All requests for changes to the
               scope of work must be approved by the contract manager.

               Contract Manager

5.13           Will Wiseman of the Government Office for the East Midlands is the Contract Manager.

5.14           The Contract Manager is responsible for ensuring that the Government’s aims and objectives for
               the study are met. He is responsible for financial aspects of the study and approval of any variance
               to the study scope, cost plan, deliverable schedule and the content of deliverables. The Contract
               Manager, with advice from the PMG, is responsible for the approval and acceptance of study
               deliverables. Client Study Manager tasks may be delegated to the Assistant Project Manager as
               seen appropriate.

5.15           The Contract Manager is chair of the Project Management Group. Chairing of meetings may be
               delegated to the Assistant Contract Manager.

               Assistant Contract Manager

5.16           John Perkins of the Government Office for the East Midlands is the Assistant Contract Manager.

5.17           The Assistant Contract Manager will be responsible for any of the Client Study Manager’s tasks
               delegated to him. The Assistant Contract Manager will be the principal point of day-to-day
               contact between the Consultancy Team and the client.

               Secretariat

5.18           The Government Office for the East Midlands will provide the Secretariat. The Client Secretariat
               is responsible for the organisation of Project Management Group meetings. The Client Secretariat
               is responsible for the circulation of documents between the Client, Project Management Group and
               Consultancy Team, although this task may be delegated to the Consultancy Team by agreement.
               The Client Secretariat is responsible for the client’s administration of the project.




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               Consultant Project Director

5.19           The study team contacts list is given in Appendix A.

5.20           Don Nutt of Steer Davies Gleave is the Consultant Project Director.

5.21           The Consultant Project Director has overall responsibility for the delivery of the consultancy
               project to the agreed budget and timescale and to the required and expected quality. He will
               review all documentation produced during the study and will maintain an overview of its progress
               against objectives. The Project Director will attend Project Management Group meetings.

               Consultant Project Manager

5.22           Nasar Malik of WS Atkins is the Consultant Project Manager.

5.23           The Consultant Project Manager is responsible for the day-to-day progress of the study. He is the
               principal point of contact between the Client, Project Management Group and Study Team. He is
               responsible for monitoring study progress against defined time, cost and quality requirements. He
               is responsible for the periodic update of the work programme and cost schedule. He is responsible
               for risk management. He is responsible for any requests for changes to the scope of the project
               that affect timescales, costs or quality.

5.24           The Consultant Project Manager will attend Project Management Group meetings and present a
               written report on progress as well as being available to discuss other issues germaine to the Project
               Management Group at their meetings. He is responsible for the production and circulation of
               minutes of the meetings in draft for approval.

               Team Leaders

5.25           In light of refinements to our study approach and methodology, we have reviewed the staffing
               requirements for the study. The one change to the previously proposed team leaders is the
               Modelling Team Leader. It is proposed that Phil Richards take this role. Phil has recently joined
               WS Atkins and brings with him a wealth of modelling experience. He was introduced to the PMG
               at its first meeting where he presented the traffic survey and modelling proposals.

               Programme

5.26           A detailed work programme for stages 2 and 3 is presented in Chapter 4.

5.27           The development of a detailed work programme for the following stages will form part of the
               scoping stage.

5.28           The Consultant Project Manager will update the work programme on a monthly basis and will
               report progress (in writing) to the Project Management Group. The focus of the Progress Reports
               will be on ‘exception reporting’, that is reporting where timescales are not being met, the
               consequences of any delay and any remedial action that is being taken. The focus of the Progress
               Reports will be to look forward to completion of the project rather then looking back on what has
               been achieved to date.

5.29           Progress Reports will be prepared in draft, discussed by the Client Assistant Project Manager and
               Consultant Project Manager and amended if required. They will then be circulated to the Project
               Management Group one week before scheduled meetings.


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               COST PLAN AND CONTROL

5.30           A cost plan has been submitted separately to the Government Office for the East Midlands.
               Monthly reports will monitor out-turn costs against budget and project forward expenditure. The
               cost plan will be updated monthly and explanations will be given of any variances.

               REPORTING MECHANISM

5.31           The reports for the study are defined in the deliverables schedule (in Table 5.1).

5.32           Draft reports will be sent to the Assistant Contract Manager by e-mail for comment and if
               appropriate amendment. With the Assistant Contract Manager’s approval they will be distributed
               by e-mail to the Project Management Group with the intention that this will be done by the close
               of business at least three working days before the scheduled Project Management Group meeting.
               Following discussion at the Project Management Group, Project Management Group members
               will have five working days in which to provide written comments if they so wish. Documents
               will be reviewed in the light of comments received. The Client Project Manager may then either
               accept the document or return it to the Project Management Group for further review at his
               discretion. At the request of the Contract Manager or his Assistant, the Consultants will produce
               responses to Project Management Group Member comments noting why or why not documents
               have been amended.

               RISK MANAGEMENT

5.33           Risk management is the identification of aspects of the work programme that have the greatest risk
               of impacting on the study timescale, its cost or quality and then the monitoring of progress of these
               tasks and if necessary taking appropriate steps to minimise adverse impact. The tasks of the work
               programme have been reviewed and categorised as either having low, medium or high risk of not
               being achieved to schedule and whether they would have a low, medium or high impact on the
               project. The analysis is summarised in Figure 5.1.

5.34           Reporting of progress of medium and high impact tasks will be one focus of the monthly progress
               reports.

               CHANGE MANAGEMENT

5.35           The study budget comprises of a number of ‘per task’ elements, the number of which has been
               estimated in the cost schedule. A mechanism needs to be put in place to allow the study team to
               draw down on the per task budgets. Also, a number of budget elements are currently estimated
               and will be firmed-up during the course of the project. It is also likely that the scope of the project
               will evolve in response to changing national and local circumstances. Change management is the
               mechanism for the study team requesting changes to the project scope and the client approving
               such changes in a way that maintains a clear definition of the project scope and allows the client to
               maintain financial control.

5.36           A ‘change request’ pro-forma will be developed which will provide the mechanism for the study
               team to request scope variations to the project. Any financial consequences will be highlighted.
               The change request will require client approval before implementation.

5.37           Change requests will be developed by the study team in order to:

                        draw down on ‘per task’ as ‘per event’ elements of the budget


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                        confirm previously estimated budgets

                        respond to changing national or local circumstances

                        respond to Steering Group requests for a changed scope to the project.

5.38           Change requests will be accompanied by any supporting documentation as requested by the
               Government Office for the East Midlands.

5.39           It will only be possible for the study team to invoice for work covered by the current pricing
               schedule or subject to an approved change request.




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                                                              Figure 5.1 Risk Assessment
                            H

                                                                             Model                  Data
                                                                           Development            Collection


                                                                           Initial WRG
                                                                           Consultation            Scheme
                                                                                                 Development
                                                                              First
                                                                            Newsletter
                                                                                                 Final Report
Impact upon Overall Study




                            M   Media                                         Scheme
                                Training                                   Identification




                                                                              Public
                                                                            Consultation




                                    Scoping Report
                                    Inception Report


                            L
                                                                                M                                    H
                                L
                                                        Probability of Work Programme Slippage
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                                                                          APPENDIX A

                                                                          STUDY TEAM




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                  Don Nutt                 Project Director

Tel:-             0171 919 8500
Fax:-             0171 827 9850
E-Mail:-          D.Nutt@sdgworld.net

Address:-                Steer Davies Gleave
                         28-32 Upper Ground
                         London
                         SE1 9PD



                  Nasar Malik              Project Manager

Tel:-             0161 839 3113
Fax:-             0161 839 3137
E-Mail:-          nmalik@wsatkins.co.uk

Address:-                WS Atkins
                         Television House
                         Mount Street
                         Manchester
                         M2 5NT



                  Martin Crookston                    Land-Use Advisor

Tel:-             0171 637 0181
Fax:-             0171 637 8740
E-Mail:-          m.crookston@llewelyn-davies-ltd.com

Address:-                Llewelyn-Davies
                         Brook House
                         Torrington Place
                         London
                         WC1E 7HN




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                  Sean Newton Freight Team Leader

Tel:-             01244 348301
Fax:-             01244 348471
E-Mail:-          sean@mdst.demon.co.uk

Address:-                MDS Transmodal
                         5-6 Hunters Walk
                         Canal Street
                         Chester
                         CH1 4EB



                  John Pounder Economics Team Leader

Tel:-             0121 616 3600
DD:-              0121 616 3710
Fax:-             0121 616 3699
E-Mail:-          john_pounder@ecotec.co.uk

Address:-                Ecotec Research & Consulting Ltd
                         Priestly House
                         28 – 34 Albert Street
                         Birmingham
                         B4 7UD


                  Phil Richards                       Modelling Team Leader

Tel:-             0121 633 2548
Fax:-             0121 643 9688
E-Mail;-          prichards@wsatkins.co.uk

Address:-                WS Atkins
                         Auchinleck House
                         Five Ways
                         Birmingham
                         B15 1DJ




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                  Rory Garland                        Team Leader Consultation

Tel:-             0171 919 8500
Fax:-             0171 827 9850
E-Mail:-          R.Garland@sdgworld.net

Address:-                Steer Davies Gleave
                         28-32 Upper Ground
                         London
                         SE1 9PD



                  Adil Chaudhrey                      Team Leader Appraisal

Tel:-             0171 919 8500
Fax:-             0171 827 9850
E-Mail:-          A.Chaudhrey@sdgworld.net

Address:-                Steer Davies Gleave
                         28-32 Upper Ground
                         London
                         SE1 9PD




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                                                                                 Appendix

								
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