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GA Wx Statistics-Massoud

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					  GA weather Related
     Safety Study

FAA Center of excellence for General
    Aviation Research (CGAR)
Scott Stevens, FAA Project Manager
       Massoud Bazargan, PI
               ERAU
                   Outline
Current Project

Descriptive analyses

The Way Ahead




                    CGAR 2008   2
       Weather encounters
Interview pilots who had weather-
encounters – perform analyses – find
patterns and role of weather-products
available to them
Teams
  FAA CAMI (Civil Aerospace Medical
  Institute)
  ERAU
    3 faculty COB, 1 faculty COA, 5 graduate students
  Clemson University
                     CGAR 2008                          3
               Weather encounters
Process:
   CAMI becomes aware of weather encounters
CAMI gets permission to contact the pilot
Contact the pilot
   Describe the purpose of the project and ask for their
    participation
   Provide the pilot with assurance of confidentiality
   Pilot completes consent form prior to interview
Set-up a telcon number and conduct the interview
All team members participate and listen


                            CGAR 2008                       4
                      ERAU Task
 ERAU gather the relevant weather information:
      Flight Conditions:
      [VMC, IMC, Mixed, Marginal, Special VFR]
      Weather Elements:
      [Fog, Ice, Rain, Snow, Thunderstorm, Turbulence,
      Windshear, Other (element)
      Light:
      [Dawn, Daylight, Dusk, Night
      Ceiling:
      [Single Value (feet), Lower Boundary (feet), Upper
      Boundary (feet), CLR]
      Visibility:
      [Single Value (statute miles), Lower Boundary (statute
      miles), Upper Boundary (statute miles)]

                           CGAR 2008                           5
                  ERAU Task
METARs - The acronym roughly translates from
 French as Aviation Routine Weather Report.
  METARs are the actual weather information
    including, wind speed and direction, sky cover
    with cloud height, visibility, obscurations to
    visibility (i.e., rain, mist), temperature and sea-
    level pressure;
  METARs are in coded form;
  METARs are usually reported hourly.



                       CGAR 2008                          6
               ERAU Task
TAFs Translated
    TAFs are Terminal Aerodrome
     Forecasts. (These are forecasts);
     They are issued for a given airfield and
     are valid for a 5 mile radius from said
     airfield.
    TAFs are updated every six hours (with
     special TAFs issued when needed) and
     are typically valid for 24 hours.

                    CGAR 2008                    7
                     ERAU Task
ERAU data collection procedure:
  Two primary sources: ERAU flight weather server, and
   National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Hierarchical Data
   Storage System (HDSS)
     Both sources require manual inquiry/retrieval
     NCDC is email-based request system (HDSS Access
      System - HAS)




                           CGAR 2008                        8
                     Limitation
IRB (Institutional Review Board) – whenever human
 subjects are involved.
Complete confidentiality
Can not discuss the interviews, how many, results,
 analyses!
Concurrently conducted safety analyses for weather-
 related accidents/incidents as reported by NTSB from
 2000-2006.


                         CGAR 2008                      9
           NTSB Database
Every accidents/incidents receives a record (event
ID). Each aircraft involved in the accident receives
an NTSB report number.
600 MB
Around 60,000 events accidents/incidents (total).
50,000 events relate to GA. (83% of all accidents).
9200 events – 9380 aircraft fatal GA accidents
(18.4% of total GA events).


                     CGAR 2008                         10
    19




                500
                      1000
                                 1500
                                             2000
                                                    2500
                                                           3000




            0
      8
    19 7
      88
    19
      8
    19 9
      9
    19 0
      9
    19 1
      9
    19 2
      9
    19 3
      9
    19 4
      9
    19 5
      9
    19 6
      9
    19 7
      9
    19 8




CGAR 2008
      9
    20 9
      0
    20 0
      0
    20 1
      0
    20 2
      0
                                                                  GA Fatal Accidents 1987-2006




    20 3
      0
                                                                                                 GA Fatal Accidents




    20 4
      0
    20 5
      06
11
                             Total
                                     Fatal
                                                GA Accidents
# Accidents per 100,000 flight hours (est.)
                                     General Aviation Accidents Per 100,000 Flight Hours
                                                          (National)
                                                          All          Fatal
# Accidents per 100,000 Hrs




                              12

                              10

                              8

                              6

                              4

                              2

                              0
                              1984      1987    1990    1993          1996     1999   2002   2005

                                                               Year



                                                          CGAR 2008                                 12
              Analyses
More than 9750 accidents/incidents
from 2000-2006;
  7620 non-weather;
  2130 weather-related (cause or factor);
  About 28% are weather-related as a cause
  or factor.




                 CGAR 2008                   13
      Weather and non-weather
 accidents/incidents from 2000-2006
1200

1000

 800
                                                         Non-Wx
 600
                                                         WX
 400

 200

   0
       2000   2001   2002   2003    2004   2005   2006




                            CGAR 2008                             14
          Weather and non-weather
     accidents/incidents from 2000-2006
                       % of WX to non-WX

40

35

30

25

20
 2000    2001   2002     2003      2004    2005   2006   2007




                           CGAR 2008                            15
                                  Time of the day
                              Distribution of GA Accidents by Time of Day

12%


10%


8%

                                                                                        Non-Weather
6%
                                                                                        Weather

4%


2%


0%
      0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
                                            Time (Hour)


                                                 CGAR 2008                                        16
Categorizing Weather Accident Codes
         in NTSB Database




               CGAR 2008              17
      Categorizing Weather Accident Codes
               in NTSB Database

Eight Groups
  Cloud ceiling and visibility
  Turbulence
  Icing
  Convective weather
  Winds (non-convective)
  Precipitation
  Pressure
  Temperature

                           CGAR 2008        18
         Categorizing Weather Accident
           Codes in NTSB Database
 Cloud ceiling and visibility
    Below approach/landing minimums (visibility/runway visual range)
    Clouds
    Fog
    Haze/smoke
    Low ceiling
    Sand/dust storm
    Snow (includes sleet; also grouped under Precipitation)
    Volcanic ash
    Whiteout
  560 accidents/incidents had ceiling/visibility as cause
  or factor from 2000-2006
                                  CGAR 2008                             19
                                       Ceiling - visibility
                                                   Ceiling/visibility


                      90

                      80

                      70
Number of Incidents




                      60

                      50

                      40

                      30

                      20

                      10

                      0
                           Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May     Jun      Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                             Month



                                                         CGAR 2008                                      20
                                                                                                                                                   Number of Incidents
                  AP
                       PR
                            O
                             A




                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                                                              40
                                                                                                                                                   60
                                                                                                                                                        80
                                                                                                                                                             100
                                                                                                                                                                   120
                                                                                                                                                                         140
                                                                                                                                                                               160
                                                                                                                                                                                     180
                                                                                                                                                                                               200
                                 C                                                                  C
                                     H                                                                   R
                                         -F                                                                  U
                                              A                                        M                         IS
                                                  F/                                    A                          E
                                                    O                                       NE
                                                          U                                         U
                                                              TE                                        VE
                                                                R                                         R
                                                                    M                                            IN
                                                                     AR                                               G
                                                                           K                AP
                                                                               ER                   PR
                                                                                                         O
                                                                                       TO                 A
                                                                                                                 C
                                                                                            TH                       H
                                                                     TA                             R
                                                                       KE                               ES
                                                                               O                             H
                                                                                FF                               O
                                                                                                                  LD
                                                                                           -I
                                                                                             N                            (IF
                                                                                                 IT                              R
                                                                                                   IA                                )
                                                                               C                         L
                                                                                   R                         C
                                                                                       U                         LI
                                                                                                                   M
                                                                     M                     IS
                                                                      IS                     E                      B
                             AP                                            SE                       -N
                                     PR                                      D                           O
                                          O                                            A                     R
                                           A                                               PP                    M
                                                  C                                          R
                                                                                                                  AL
                                                      H                                             O
                                                          -I                                            AC
                                                               AF              C                             H
                                                                                   LI
                                                                    TO               M       (IF
                                                                                      B         R
                                                                         FA        -T              )
                                                                           F/         O




CGAR 2008
                                                                             O          C
                                                                              U           R
                                                                                TE          U
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Ceiling/visibility




                                                                                  R           IS
                                                                                    M           E
                             AP                                                        AR
                                  PR                                                      KE




   Flight Phase
                                         O                                                    R
                                          A
                                              C                                                  (IF
                                                   H                                                                         R
                                                          -V                                                                     )
                                                               FR                                       C
                                                                                                            LI
                                                                    PA                                        M
                                                                      TT                                       B
                                                                                                D
                                                                                                                                                                                      Weather Conditions




                                                                           ER
                                                                                   N                ES
                                                                                       -F                 C
                                                                                         IN                   EN
                                                                                                A                    T
                                                                                                    L
                                                                           D                            AP
                                                                               ES                             PR
                                                                AP                     C                             O
                                                                                           EN                         A
                                                                     PR
                                                                                                T                         C
                                                                          O                                                      H
                                                                           A                        -N
                                                                               C                         O
                                                                                   H                         R
                                                                                       -C                        M
                                                                                            IR                    AL
                                                                                                    C
                                                                                                        LI
                                                                                                           NG
                                                                                                                  (IF
                                                                                                                         R
                                                                                                                             )
     21
     Categorizing Weather Accident
       Codes in NTSB Database
Turbulence
  Mountain wave
  Turbulence
  Turbulence in clouds
  Turbulence (thunderstorms) (also under Thunderstorms)
  Turbulence, clear air
  Turbulence, convection-induced (also under
   Thunderstorms)
  Turbulence, terrain-induced
  80 GA accidents/incidents attributed to turbulence from
   2000-2006
                          CGAR 2008                          22
                             Turbulence Types
• Low-level (atmospheric boundary-layer) turbulence
    • Caused by combination of thermal and mechanical mixing
• Clear-air turbulence
    • Associated with areas of horizontal and vertical wind shear
• Mountain-wave turbulence
    • Associated with strong wind flow over a barrier such as a mountain range
• Turbulence associated with thunderstorms
    • Hazards include updrafts/downdrafts, vertical wind shear, etc.
                         Note section of wing
                         taken off by encounter             Mountain-wave
                         with mountain-wave
                                                            turbulence over
                                                            the Rockies
                         turbulence




                                           CGAR 2008                             23
                                             Turbulence
                                                     Turbulence


                      14

                      12
Number of Incidents




                      10

                      8

                      6

                      4

                      2

                      0
                           Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun      Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                           Month

                                                    CGAR 2008                                         24
                                                                                                                                                    Number of Incidents




                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                                                                             15
                                                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                                                       25
                                                                                                                                                                            30
                                                                                                              C
                                                                                                                  R
                                                                                        C                             U
                                                                                            R                             IS
                                                                                                U                           E
                                                                                                    IS
                                                                                                      E
                                                                                                             -N
                                                                                    D                             O
                                                                                                                      R
                                                                                        ES                                M
                                                                                                C                          AL
                                                                                                    EN
                                                                                                         T
                                                                                                             -N
                                                                                                                  O
                                                                                                                      R
                                      AP                                                                                   M
                                                                                                M                           AL
                                           PR                                                    A
                                                  O                                                  NE
                           AP                      A                                                         U
                                                       C                    TA
                                PR                          H                 KE                                 VE
                                     O                          -V                      O                          R
                                      A                                                                                   IN
                                          C                          FR                  FF
                                                                                                                               G
                                              H                                                     -I
                                                  -F                       PA                         N
                                                       A                     TT                           IT
                                                           F/                                               IA
                                                             O                      ER                            L
                                                                 U                          N                          C
                                                                     TE                                                    LI
                                                                       R
                                                                                                -F                           M
                                                                           M                      IN                          B
                                                                                                         A
                                                                            AR                               L
                                                                                    K                             AP
                                                                                        ER                             PR
                                                                                                TO                            O
                                                                                                                               A
                                                                                                     TH                               C
                                                                                                                                          H
                                                                                                             R
                                                                                                                 ES
                                                                                                                      H
                                                                                                                          O
                                                                                                                           LD
                                                                                                                                      (IF
                                                                                                                                            R
                                                                                                         D                                      )
                                                                                                              ES
                                                                                                                                                                                 Turbulence




                                                                                        G                          C
                                                                                            O




CGAR 2008
                                                                 LA                                                    EN
                                                                   N                         -A
                                                                                               R                              T
                                                                       D                             O
                                                                           IN                            U
                                                                                G                             N




            Flight Phase
                                                                                    -F                            D
                                                                                      LA                              (V
                                                                                        R                                  FR
                                                                                                    E/                            )
                                                                                                      TO
                                                                                                              UC
                                                                                                                      H
                                                                                                                          D
                                                                                                                                                                                              Turbulence




                                                                                                                              O
                                                                                                                                  W
                                                                                                                                   N
                                                                                                     AP
                                                                                                             PR
                                                                                                                  O
                                                                                                                   A
                                                                                                                          C
                                                                                                                              H

                                                                                                          LA
                                                                                                            N
                                                                                                                   D
                                                                                                                       IN
                                                                                            LA                                G
                                                                                              N
                                                                                                    D
                                                                                                         IN
                                                                                                              G
                                                                                                                  -R
                                                                                                                          O
                                                                                                                           LL


                                                                                                                  C
                                                                                                                      LI
                                                                                                                        M
                                                                                                                         B
25
     Categorizing Weather Accident
       Codes in NTSB Database
Icing
  Carburetor icing conditions
  Freezing rain (also under Precipitation)
  Icing conditions
  Ice fog
  230 GA accidents/incidents from 2000-2006




                         CGAR 2008             26
               Aircraft Icing
Two types
  Structural: accumulation of ice on the aircraft’s
  exterior (wing, tail surfaces, propellers, radio
  antennas, windscreen, pitot tube, static ports)
  Induction: accumulation of ice on air intakes
  and the carburetor
    Affects the aircraft’s power plant operation




                       CGAR 2008                      27
                                             Aircraft Icing
                                                         Icing


                      40

                      35
Number of Incidents




                      30

                      25

                      20

                      15

                      10

                      5

                      0
                           Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May    Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                         Month
                                                     CGAR 2008                                       28
                                                                                                                                          Number of Incidents




                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                                                 30
                                                                                                                                                       40
                                                                                                                                                                50
                                                                                                                                                                     60
                                                                  TA
                                                                    KE                              C
                                                                            O                           R
                                                                             FF                             U
                                                                                                                IS
                                                                                           -I                     E
                                                                                             N
                                                                                                 IT
                                                                                                   IA
                                                                                                        L
                           AP                                                                               C
                                                                                                                 LI
                                PR                                                                                 M
                                     O                                                                              B
                                      A                                                     AP
                                          C
                                              H                                                  PR
                                                  -V                                                    O
                                                                               C                         A
                                                       FR                          R                            C
                                                                                       U                            H
                                                              PA                           IS
                                                                TT                           E
                                                                           ER                    -N
                                                                                N                       O
                                                                                                            R
                                                                                       -F                       M
                                                                                         IN                      AL
                                                                                              A
                                                                                                  L
                                                                                                        AP
                                                                                                              PR
                                                                                                                    O
                                                                                    M                                A
                                                                                     A                                       C
                                 AP                                                         NE                                   H
                                      PR                                                          U
                                              O                                                       VE
                                               A                                                        R
                                                      C
                                                          H                                                     IN
                                                              -V                                                     G
                                                                   FR
                                                                           PA                   D
                                                                                                    ES
                                                   LA                        TT                           C
                                                                                                              EN
                                                     N                                 ER
                                                                                                                    T
                                                              D                             N
                                                                  IN
                                                                                                                                                                          Icing




                                                                       G                         -D
                                                                                                        O
                                                                           -F                            W
                                                                             LA                                  NW
                                                                               R                                            IN
                                                                                           E/
                                                                                             TO                                  D




CGAR 2008
                                                                                                    UC




            Flight Phase
                                                                            C                               H
                                                                                                                D
                                                                                LI
                                                                                  M                                 O
                                                                                   B                                    W
                                                                                                                         N
                                                                                            -T
                                                                                                  O
                                                                                                        C
                                                                                                            R
                            AP                                                                                  U
                                                                                                                    IS
                                 PR                                                                                   E
                                      O
                                       A
                                              C                                                       C
                                                  H                        D                              LI
                                                      -V                       ES                           M
                                                                                    C
                                                                                                                                                                                  Aircraft Icing




                                                           FR                           EN                   B
                                                                   PA                        T
                                                                     TT                           -N
                                                                               ER                       O
                                                                                       N                    R
                                                                                                                 M
                                                                                           -B                     AL
                                                                                             AS
                                                                                                      E
                                                                                                            TO
                                                                           G
                                                                               O                                    FI
                                                                                -A                                    N
                                                                                  R                                          AL
                                                                                            O
                                                                                                U
                                                                                                    N
                                                                                                        D
                                                                                                            (V
                                                                                                                 FR
                                                                                                                        )
29
       Categorizing Weather Accident
         Codes in NTSB Database
 Convective Weather
    Downdraft
    Hail
    Hurricane
    Lightning
    Lightning strike
    Static discharge
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm, outflow
    Tornado
    Updraft
    196 accidents/incidents



                               CGAR 2008   30
                                 Convective Weather
                                                   convective weather


                      35

                      30
Number of Incidents




                      25

                      20

                      15

                      10

                      5

                      0
                           Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May    Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                             Month




                                                      CGAR 2008                                       31
                                                                                                                                     Number of Incidents
                           A
                            P
                                P
                                 R
                                     O
                                      A
                                          C
                                              H
                                                  -V
                                                       F
                                                           R
                                                               P
                                                                A
                                                                 T
                                                                     T
                                                                         E
                                                                          R
                                                                              N
                                                                                  -
                                                                T                     FI
                                                                                        N
                                                                    A
                                                   LA                K                      A
                                                     N                E                         L
                                                           D                O                       A
                                                                             F                       P




                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                            5
                                                                                                                                10
                                                                                                                                      15
                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                                                25
                                                                                                                                                     30
                                                                                                                                                          35
                                                                                                                                                               40
                                                                                                                                                                    45
                                                                                                                                                                         50




                                                               IN                 F
                                                                    G                                     P
                                                                                      -                    R
                                                                        -                 IN                   O
                                                                            FL                 IT               A
                                                                                 A               IA                 C
                                                                                  R                   L                 H
                                                                                      E                   C
                                                                                       /T
                                                                                     LI
                                                                                        M   O
                                                                                           B    U
                                                                                                 C
                                                                                H
                                                                                   D
                                                                                     O
                                                                                        W
                                                                            C              N
                                                                   M          R
                                                                     A          U
                                                                       N           IS
                                                                         E             E
                                                                           U
                                                                             V
                                                                               E
                                                                                  R
                                                                                    IN




CGAR 2008
                                                                         LA             G
                                                                             N
                                                                               D
                                                                                  IN
                                                                                      G
                                                                 LA          C
                                                                    N           LI
                                                                      D            M
                                                                                                                                                                              Concentive weather




                                                                        IN            B
                                                                           G
                                                                              -
                                                                                R
                                                                       A           O
                                                              C         P             LL
                                                                 R        P
                                                                   U         R
                                                                     IS OA
                                                                       E            C
                                                             G
            Flight Phase


                                                                O         -N H
                                                                  -A          O
                                                                     R           R
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Convective Weather




                                                                       O           M
                                                              C          U             A
                                                                           N             L
                                                                LI
                                                                  M          D
                                                  E                  B           (V
                                                   M
                                                     E      D          -T           FR
                                                      R       E            O             )
                                                        G       S
                                                         E         C          C
                                                           N         E          R
                                                             C        N            U
                                                               Y        T             I
                                                                 D         - N SE
                                                                   E           O
                                                                     S            R
                                                                       C            M
                                                                         E              A
                                                                           N             L
                                                                             T/
                                                                                L
                                                                                  A
                                                                                     N
                                                                                        D
                                                                                          IN
                                                                                             G
32
       Categorizing Weather Accident
         Codes in NTSB Database
 Winds (non-convective)
    Crosswind
    Gusts
    High wind
    Sudden windshift
    Tailwind
    Variable wind
    Windshear
    More than half of all weather-related accidents have winds as
     cause/factor
    1580 accidents/incidents



                                 CGAR 2008                           33
                            Winds (non-convective)
                                                Winds (non-convective)


                      250


                      200
Number of Incidents




                      150


                      100


                      50


                       0
                            Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun    Jul     Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                            Month


                                                     CGAR 2008                                         34
                                                                                                 Number of Incidents
                                          LA
                                            N
                                                D              LA
                                                    IN           N
                                                         G  D
                                                              IN




                                                                                           100
                                                                                                   200
                                                                                                         300
                                                                                                               400
                                                                                                                     500
                                                                                                                           600




                                                                                       0
                                                   -F            G
                                                     LA             -R
                                                         R               O
                                                           E/              LL
                                                              TO
                                                                  UC
                                                                      H
                                                                        D
                                                                          O
                                               TA                            W
                                                 KE                            N
                                                                LA
                                                     O             N
                                                       FF            D
                                                                       IN
                           AP
                                                           -I
                                                             N             G
                                                 TA             IT
                              PR                                  IA
                                 O
                                                    KE               L
                                  A                     O              C
                                    C                     FF              LI
                                                                            M
                                      H
                                        -V                     -R              B
                                           FR       G              O
                                                      O              LL
                                              PA        -A              /R
                                                           R               U
                                                TT           O               N
                                                   ER          U
                                                      N           N
                                                                    D
                                                         -F           (V
                                                            IN           FR
                                                               A             )
                                                                 L
                                                  LA                AP
                                                     N
                                                       D               PR
                                                         IN                 O
                                                            G                 A
                                                                                C
                                                               -A                 H
                                                                   BO




CGAR 2008
                                                                       R
                                                                         TE
                                                                             D
                                                  TA           TA
                                                                                                                                 Winds (non-concentives)




                                                     KE            KE
                                                         O             O




            Flight Phase
                                                          FF             FF
                                                 TA            -A
                                                    XI             BO
                                                       -F              R
                                                          R              TE
                                                            O                D
                                                               M
                                                                  LA
                                                                      N
                                                         M              D
                                                           A              IN
                                                             NE              G
                                                                 U
                                                                   VE
                                                                       R
                                                                         IN
                                                                             G
                                                                                                                                                           Winds (non-convective)




                                                             TA
                                                               XI               TA
                                                                  -   TO          XI
                                                                           TA
                                                                                KE
                                                                                  O
                                                                                      FF
35
       Categorizing Weather Accident
         Codes in NTSB Database
 Precipitation
    Drizzle/mist
    Freezing rain
    Hurricane
    Precipitation static conditions
    Rain
    Snow (includes sleet)
    142 accidents/incidents




                                  CGAR 2008   36
                                             Precipitation
                                                    precipitation


                      25


                      20
Number of Incidents




                      15


                      10


                      5


                      0
                           Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May     Jun      Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                            Month




                                                         CGAR 2008                                      37
 Categorizing Weather Accident
   Codes in NTSB Database
Pressure
  High density altitude
  Excessive/No thermal lift (for
  gliders/sailplanes)
  151 accidents/incidents




                    CGAR 2008      38
                                                   Pressure

                                                      Pressure


                      45

                      40

                      35
Number of Incidents




                      30

                      25

                      20

                      15

                      10

                      5

                      0
                           Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May   Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                           Month



                                                     CGAR 2008                                       39
 Categorizing Weather Accident
   Codes in NTSB Database
Temperature
  Temperature low;
  Temperature high;
  Temperature extreme;
  Temperate inversion;
  15 accidents/incidents




                    CGAR 2008    40
                                        Temperature
                                                    temperature


                      6


                      5
Number of Incidents




                      4


                      3


                      2


                      1


                      0
                          Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                                                         Month

                                                   CGAR 2008                                      41
                       C
                           ei
                              lin
                                    g/




                                                             200
                                                             400
                                                             600
                                                             800
                                                            1000
                                                            1200
                                                            1400
                                                            1600
                                                            1800




                                                               0
                                      vi
                                           sib
                                                 ilit
                                                     y
            W
             in
                  ds
                       (n                    Ic
                          o                     i   ng
                              n-
                                co
              co                        nv
                   nv                       ec
                         ec                         tiv
                              tiv                      e)
                                    e
                                        w
                                            ea
                                               t    he
                            pr                        r
                              ec
                                     ip
                                          ita




CGAR 2008
                                             tio
                                                      n
                                    Pr
                                      es
                                              su
                                                    re
                               Tu
                                     rb
                                                                                                      All 8 - categories




                                        u    le
                                                n    ce
                              te
                                                               Number of accidents within each cat.




                                 m
                                     pe
                                       ra
                                               tu
                                                  re
42
                        C
                            ei
                               lin
                                     g/




                                                               0%
                                                              10%
                                                              20%
                                                              30%
                                                              40%
                                                              50%
                                                              60%
                                       vi
                                            si
                                                 bi
                                                    lit
                                                          y
            W




                                                                    19%
             in
                  ds                          Ic
                       (n                        i   ng
                         on
                               -c


                                                               8%
                                 on
                                    v       ec
                  co                              tiv
                       nv
                          e   ct
                                                        e)
                                iv
                                     e
                                                                          53%




                                          w
                                              ea
                                                 th
                                                    e     r
                              pr
                                                               7%




                                   ec
                                      i   pi
                                            ta




CGAR 2008
                                              t io
                                                      n
                                                               5%




                                     Pr
                                        e   ss
                                              ur
                                                 e
                                                               5%




                               Tu
                                  r
                                                                                                          All 8 - categories




                                      bu
                                        le
                                                 nc
                                                    e
                              te
                                                                            Percentage within each cat.




                                 m
                                                              3%




                                      pe
                                        ra
                                                 tu
                                                    r e
                                                              1%




43
                                       All 8 - categories
                                            Injury Description

                 100.0%
                  90.0%
                  80.0%
% of Incidents




                  70.0%
                  60.0%                                          FATAL
                  50.0%
                  40.0%                                          NON-FATAL
                  30.0%
                  20.0%
                  10.0%
                   0.0%
                                                             )


                                                           er
                                                         ive




                                                         ce


                                                          re
                             y




                                                           n


                                                         re
                                                          g




                                                        th
                            ilit




                                                      t io
                                                       in




                                                       tu
                                                     en
                                                     su
                                                      ct


                                                   ea
                         sib



                                                   Ic




                                                   ra
                                                  it a
                                                  ve




                                                  ul
                                                 es
                                                 w




                                               pe
                      vi




                                                ip




                                               rb
                                              on




                                              Pr
                    g/




                                              e


                                             ec




                                             m
                                           Tu
                                          t iv
                                           -c
                   lin




                                         te
                                         pr
                                        on


                                        ec
                    i
                 Ce




                                      (n


                                     nv
                                   co
                                  ds
                                in
                               W




                                            Weather Factor

                                               CGAR 2008                     44
                                                                                      % of Incidents
                                     Ce
                                        i   lin




                                                                              10.0%
                                                                                      20.0%
                                                                                                   30.0%
                                                                                                               40.0%
                                                                                                                       50.0%
                                                                                                                               60.0%




                                                                       0.0%
                                                  g/
                                                    vi
                                                         sib
                                                            ilit
                                                                   y
                             W
                              in
                                ds             Ic
                                   (n              in
                                     on               g
                                        -c
                                           on
                                              ve
                                co                ct
                                  nv                 ive
                                     ec                  )
                                       t iv
                                           e
                                             w
                                               ea
                                                    th
                                                       er
                                      pr
                                          ec
                                            ip
                                              it a
                                                  t io
                                                       n




CGAR 2008
                                                  Pr




            Weather Factor
                                                    es
                                                                                                                                       Cause or Factor




                                                       su
                                                          re
                                         Tu
                                           rb
                                              ul
                                                 en
                                                    ce
                                        te
                                          m
                                                                                                                                                         All 8 - categories




                                            pe
                                              ra
                                                  tu
                                                     re
                                                                                                       CAUSE
                                                                                              FACTOR




45
     Alaska vs. other states
Out of 2134 weather-related accidents
nationwide, 275 accidents/incidents (13%)
occurred in Alaska from 2000-2006.




                 CGAR 2008                  46
                        Alaska vs. other states
                                    Injury Description


                 100%

                 90%

                 80%

                 70%
% of Incidents




                 60%
                                                                     Other States
                 50%
                                                                     Alaska
                 40%

                 30%

                 20%

                 10%

                  0%
                            FATAL                        NON-FATAL


                                    CGAR 2008                                       47
Alaska vs. other states




         CGAR 2008        48
                         Alaska vs. other states
                 30%


                 25%


                 20%
% of Incidents




                                                                                       Other States
                 15%
                                                                                       Alaska

                 10%


                 5%


                 0%
                       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr May   Jun   Jul   Aug Sep Oct   Nov Dec
                                                    Month

                                                    CGAR 2008                                         49
                       Alaska vs. other states
                                            Time of Day

                 16%

                 14%

                 12%
% of Incidents




                 10%
                                                                            Other States
                 8%
                                                                            Alaska
                 6%

                 4%

                 2%

                 0%
                                       10

                                            12

                                                   14

                                                        16

                                                             18

                                                                  20

                                                                       22
                   0

                       2

                           4

                               6

                                   8




                                            Time

                                            CGAR 2008                                      50
                         Alaska vs. other states
                                     Weather Condition Basic Code

                 90%

                 80%

                 70%
% of Incidents




                 60%

                 50%                                                       Other States
                 40%                                                       Alaska

                 30%

                 20%

                 10%

                 0%
                       INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL   VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
                                  COND                      COND

                                              CGAR 2008                                   51
                                                                                  % of Incidents
                                     Ce
                                        i   lin
                                                  g/




                                                                       0%
                                                                            10%
                                                                                  20%
                                                                                        30%
                                                                                                  40%
                                                                                                                50%
                                                                                                                      60%
                                                                                                                            70%
                                                    vi
                                                         sib
                                                            ilit
                             W                                     y
                              in
                                ds
                                 (n              Ic
                                    on              in
                                      -c               g
                                         on
                                             ce
                                Co               nt
                                   nc               ive
                                     en                 s)
                                        tiv
                                            e
                                               we
                                                  at
                                                      he
                                      Pa                 r
                                          rti
                                              cip
                                                 at
                                                     io
                                                       n
                                           Pr




CGAR 2008
            Weather Factor
                                             es
                                                su
                                                                                                                                  Weather Factor




                                                   re
                                         Tu
                                            rb
                                              ul
                                                 en
                                                   ce
                                        Te
                                          m
                                            pr
                                               ea
                                                  tu
                                                    re
                                                                                                                                                   Alaska vs. other states



                                                                                        Alaska
                                                                                                 Other States




52
                Future Tasks at ERAU
 Complete ERAU weather data for upcoming interviews (Jan-Feb);
 Develop two- or three-dimensional weather depiction at time/location of
  encounter;
 Analyze the data extracted from interviews;
 Automate the weather extracting data to investigate and compare the
  forecast and actual weather at the location/time of encounter;
 Explore possibility of developing specialized GA weather products




                                  CGAR 2008                                 53
     Thank You

Questions & Answers?



        CGAR 2008      54

				
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