The 2011 Import and Export Market for Greasy Wool in Germany by ICONGroup

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									   The 2011 Import and Export
    Market for Greasy Wool in
            Germany




                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)




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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                 Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                           7
2     GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET                           9
    2.1    Imports in Germany in 2011                        9
    2.2    Exports from Germany in 2011                     10
3     IMPORTS IN GERMANY                                    11
    3.1      Africa                                         11
       3.1.1    South Africa                                11
    3.2      Asia                                           11
       3.2.1    China                                       11
    3.3      Europe                                         12
       3.3.1    Austria                                     12
       3.3.2    Bulgaria                                    12
       3.3.3    Czech Republic                              12
       3.3.4    France                                      13
       3.3.5    Italy                                       13
       3.3.6    Norway                                      14
       3.3.7    Poland                                      14
       3.3.8    Russia                                      14
       3.3.9    Slovakia                                    15
       3.3.10 Switzerland                                   15
    3.4      Latin America                                  15
       3.4.1    Argentina                                   15
       3.4.2    Chile                                       16
    3.5      North America & the Caribbean                  16
       3.5.1    the United States                           16
    3.6      Oceana                                         17
       3.6.1    Australia                                   17
       3.6.2    New Zealand                                 18
    3.7      the Middle East                                18
       3.7.1    Turkey                                      18
4     EXPORTS FROM GERMANY                                  19
    4.1      Asia                                           19
       4.1.1    China                                       19
       4.1.2    India                                       20
    4.2      Europe                                         21
       4.2.1    Austria                                     21
       4.2.2    Belgium                                     21
       4.2.3    France                                      22
       4.2.4    Hungary                                     23
       4.2.5    Italy                                       24
       4.2.6    Latvia                                      24
       4.2.7    Poland                                      25
       4.2.8    Russia                                      25
       4.2.9    Spain                                       26
       4.2.10 the Netherlands                               26
       4.2.11 the United Kingdom                            27
    4.3      the Middle East                                28
       4.3.1    Pakistan                                    28


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5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS         29
    5.1   Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  29
    5.2   ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  30




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                                                                  Greasy Wool in Germany         7


1      INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on greasy wool in Germany face a
number of questions. Which countries are supplying greasy wool to Germany? How important is
Germany compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do
the imports of greasy wool vary from one country of origin to another in Germany? On the
supply side, Germany also exports greasy wool. Which countries receive the most exports from
Germany? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports
and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for greasy wool in Germany. With
the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can
managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have
developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for
greasy wool for those countries serving Germany via exports, or supplying from Germany via
imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and
econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Germany fits into the world market for
imported and exported greasy wool. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis,
and those for Germany in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150
key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a
percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of
origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are
then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import
and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so,
we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the
share that Germany is likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to
allow managers to prioritize Germany compared to other major country markets. In this way, all
the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information
sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of greasy wool, Chapter 3
goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Germany. A “major”
market is defined as a country where Germany represents a substantially large share of either
imports or exports. For each major country exporting to Germany, one can thus observe how
important Germany is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world.
Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of greasy wool originating from Germany, for each
major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that Germany has in each
major market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for Germany. In all
cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided.
Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of greasy wool to


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                                                                    Greasy Wool in Germany          8

and from Germany to and from all other major countries in the world. "Greasy Wool" as a
category is defined in this report following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics
Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3
(SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "greasy wool" is 2681 . For more information on
this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=268 .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.




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                                                                      Greasy Wool in Germany            9


2       GERMANY AND THE WORLD MARKET
2.1         IMPORTS IN GERMANY IN 2011
                          Imported Greasy Wool in Germany, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Australia                         1                   77,710                47.20                 47.20
South Africa                      2                   49,090                29.82                 77.02
New Zealand                       3                   16,103                 9.78                 86.80
Argentina                         4                   10,923                 6.63                 93.43
the United States                 5                    5,193                 3.15                 96.59
Slovakia                          6                    2,297                 1.40                 97.98
China                             7                      895                 0.54                 98.53
Chile                             8                      821                 0.50                 99.03
Russia                            9                      426                 0.26                 99.29
France                           10                      304                 0.18                 99.47
Czech Republic                   11                      295                 0.18                 99.65
Bulgaria                         12                      248                 0.15                 99.80
Turkey                           13                      161                 0.10                 99.90
Switzerland                      14                       87                 0.05                 99.95
Italy                            15                       30                 0.02                 99.97
Austria                          16                       28                 0.02                 99.99
Norway                           17                       23                 0.01                100.00
Poland                           18                        1                 0.00                100.00
Total                                                164,635               100.00                100.00
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011, www.icongrouponline.com




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                                                                      Greasy Wool in Germany          10


2.2         EXPORTS FROM GERMANY IN 2011
                          Greasy Wool Exports from Germany, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hungary                           1                     9,775               57.70                 57.70
Italy                             2                     2,233               13.18                 70.88
Belgium                           3                     1,646                9.72                 80.60
India                             4                     1,133                6.69                 87.29
China                             5                       688                4.06                 91.35
France                            6                       299                1.76                 93.11
Poland                            7                       291                1.72                 94.83
Austria                           8                       232                1.37                 96.20
Latvia                            9                       212                1.25                 97.45
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