The 2011 Import and Export Market for Cut Flowers and Foliage in Singapore by ICONGroup

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									   The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Cut Flowers and
      Foliage in Singapore

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                               Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                         6
2     SINGAPORE AND THE WORLD MARKET                                       8
    2.1        Imports in Singapore in 2011                                8
    2.2        Exports from Singapore in 2011                              9
3     IMPORTS IN SINGAPORE                                                10
    3.1        Africa                                                     10
       3.1.1      Kenya                                                   10
       3.1.2      Mauritius                                               11
       3.1.3      South Africa                                            12
    3.2        Asia                                                       13
       3.2.1      China                                                   13
       3.2.2      Hong Kong                                               14
       3.2.3      India                                                   15
       3.2.4      Indonesia                                               16
       3.2.5      Malaysia                                                17
       3.2.6      Sri Lanka                                               18
       3.2.7      Taiwan                                                  19
       3.2.8      Thailand                                                20
       3.2.9      Vietnam                                                 21
    3.3        Latin America                                              22
       3.3.1      Costa Rica                                              22
    3.4        North America & the Caribbean                              23
       3.4.1      Canada                                                  23
    3.5        Oceana                                                     24
       3.5.1      Australia                                               24
       3.5.2      New Zealand                                             25
    3.6        the Middle East                                            26
       3.6.1      Israel                                                  26
4     EXPORTS FROM SINGAPORE                                              27
    4.1        Asia                                                       27
       4.1.1      Hong Kong                                               27
       4.1.2      Japan                                                   28
       4.1.3      Maldives                                                29
    4.2        Europe                                                     30
       4.2.1      Greece                                                  30
    4.3        North America & the Caribbean                              31
       4.3.1      Canada                                                  31
       4.3.2      the United States                                       32
    4.4        Oceana                                                     33
       4.4.1      Australia                                               33
       4.4.2      New Zealand                                             34
    4.5        the Middle East                                            34
       4.5.1      Bahrain                                                 34
       4.5.2      Saudi Arabia                                            35
    5.1        Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  36
    5.2        ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  37                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                      Cut Flowers and Foliage in Singapore      6

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on cut flowers and foliage in
Singapore face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying cut flowers and foliage to
Singapore? How important is Singapore compared to others in terms of the entire global and
regional market? How much do the imports of cut flowers and foliage vary from one country of
origin to another in Singapore? On the supply side, Singapore also exports cut flowers and
foliage. Which countries receive the most exports from Singapore? How are these exports
concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the
largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for cut flowers and foliage in
Singapore. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a
local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years
after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to
estimate the market for cut flowers and foliage for those countries serving Singapore via exports,
or supplying from Singapore via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key
historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Singapore fits into the world market for
imported and exported cut flowers and foliage. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for Singapore in particular, is estimated using a model which
aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From
there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that Singapore is likely to receive this year. From
these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Singapore compared to other
major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can
be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of cut flowers and
foliage, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving
Singapore. A “major” market is defined as a country where Singapore represents a substantially
large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to Singapore, one can
thus observe how important Singapore is to that exporting country compared to other countries of
the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of cut flowers and foliage originating from
Singapore, for each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that
Singapore has in each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of
competitiveness for Singapore. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values                                                     ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                         Cut Flowers and Foliage in Singapore       7

by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for
imports and exports of cut flowers and foliage to and from Singapore to and from all other major
countries in the world. "Cut Flowers and Foliage" as a category is defined in this report following
the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the
Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that
defined "cut flowers and foliage" is 2927 . For more information on this definition, please refer
to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                           Cut Flowers and Foliage in Singapore         8

2.1         IMPORTS IN SINGAPORE IN 2011
                    Imported Cut Flowers and Foliage in Singapore, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Malaysia                          1                    20,195               62.60                  62.60
China                             2                     3,560               11.04                  73.64
Thailand                          3                     2,481                7.69                  81.33
Indonesia                         4                     1,374                4.26                  85.59
the Netherlands                   5                     1,362                4.22                  89.81
Taiwan                            6                       773                2.40                  92.21
India                             7                       756                2.34                  94.55
Mauritius                         8                       286                0.89                  95.44
South Africa                      9                       266                0.82                  96.26
New Zealand                      10                       256                0.79                  97.06
Australia                        11                       238                0.74                  97.79
Israel                           12                       201                0.62                  98.42
Kenya                            13                       173                0.54                  98.95
Colombia                         14                        85                0.26                  99.22
Canada                           15                        64                0.20                  99.41
Vietnam                          16                        56                0.17                  99.59
Costa Rica                       17                        45                0.14                  99.73
the United States                18                        42                0.13                  99.86
Hong Kong                        19                        27                0.08                  99.94
Sri Lanka                        20                        19                0.06                 100.00
Total                                                  32,259              100.00                 100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                          ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                           Cut Flowers and Foliage in Singapore         9

                    Cut Flowers and Foliage Exports from Singapore, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Japan                             1                     4,488               43.43                  43.43
Australia                         2                     4,314               41.75                  85.18
the United States                 3                       563                5.45            
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