The 2011 Import and Export Market for Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
    Market for Beverages and
      Tobacco in Indonesia

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                    Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                              7
2     INDONESIA AND THE WORLD MARKET                            9
    2.1        Imports in Indonesia in 2011                     9
    2.2        Exports from Indonesia in 2011                  10
3     IMPORTS IN INDONESIA                                     11
    3.1        Africa                                          11
       3.1.1      Mozambique                                   11
       3.1.2      Zambia                                       12
       3.1.3      Zimbabwe                                     13
    3.2        Asia                                            14
       3.2.1      China                                        14
       3.2.2      Hong Kong                                    15
       3.2.3      Indonesia                                    16
       3.2.4      Malaysia                                     17
       3.2.5      Singapore                                    18
       3.2.6      South Korea                                  19
       3.2.7      Taiwan                                       20
       3.2.8      Thailand                                     21
       3.2.9      Vietnam                                      22
    3.3        Europe                                          23
       3.3.1      Bulgaria                                     23
       3.3.2      Greece                                       24
       3.3.3      Luxembourg                                   25
       3.3.4      Macedonia                                    26
    3.4        Latin America                                   27
       3.4.1      Brazil                                       27
    3.5        the Middle East                                 28
       3.5.1      Turkey                                       28
4     EXPORTS FROM INDONESIA                                   29
    4.1      Asia                                              29
       4.1.1   India                                           29
       4.1.2   Indonesia                                       30
       4.1.3   Malaysia                                        31
       4.1.4   Maldives                                        32
       4.1.5   Philippines                                     33
       4.1.6   Singapore                                       34
       4.1.7   Thailand                                        35
    4.2      Europe                                            36
       4.2.1   Belarus                                         36
       4.2.2   Belgium                                         37
       4.2.3   Denmark                                         38
       4.2.4   Germany                                         39
       4.2.5   Norway                                          40
       4.2.6   Russia                                          41
       4.2.7   Spain                                           42
       4.2.8   Switzerland                                     43
       4.2.9   the Netherlands                                 44
       4.2.10 Ukraine                                          45                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                            Contents        vi

    4.3      Oceana                                                    46
       4.3.1    Australia                                              46
    4.4      the Middle East                                           47
       4.4.1    Oman                                                   47
       4.4.2    Saudi Arabia                                           48
       4.4.3    Turkey                                                 49
    5.1     Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  50
    5.2     ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  51                                 ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                        Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia      7

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on beverages and tobacco in
Indonesia face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying beverages and tobacco to
Indonesia? How important is Indonesia compared to others in terms of the entire global and
regional market? How much do the imports of beverages and tobacco vary from one country of
origin to another in Indonesia? On the supply side, Indonesia also exports beverages and tobacco.
Which countries receive the most exports from Indonesia? How are these exports concentrated
across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for beverages and tobacco in
Indonesia. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a
local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years
after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to
estimate the market for beverages and tobacco for those countries serving Indonesia via exports,
or supplying from Indonesia via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key
historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where Indonesia fits into the world market for
imported and exported beverages and tobacco. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for Indonesia in particular, is estimated using a model which
aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From
there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that Indonesia is likely to receive this year. From
these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize Indonesia compared to other
major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can
be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of beverages and tobacco,
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving Indonesia. A
“major” market is defined as a country where Indonesia represents a substantially large share of
either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to Indonesia, one can thus observe
how important Indonesia is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world.
Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of beverages and tobacco originating from Indonesia, for
each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that Indonesia has in
each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for Indonesia.
In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are
provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of                                                     ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                          Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia        8

beverages and tobacco to and from Indonesia to and from all other major countries in the world.
"Beverages and Tobacco" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by
the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International
Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "beverages and
tobacco" is 1 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                       ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                            Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia          9

2.1         IMPORTS IN INDONESIA IN 2011
                    Imported Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
China                             1                   53,533                22.23                 22.23
Malaysia                          2                   45,757                19.00                 41.24
Brazil                            3                   38,555                16.01                 57.25
the United States                 4                   23,561                 9.78                 67.03
Turkey                            5                   22,464                 9.33                 76.36
Greece                            6                   17,174                 7.13                 83.49
Thailand                          7                   12,653                 5.25                 88.75
Singapore                         8                    8,265                 3.43                 92.18
Zimbabwe                          9                    6,537                 2.71                 94.90
Bulgaria                         10                    1,682                 0.70                 95.59
South Africa                     11                    1,507                 0.63                 96.22
Macedonia                        12                    1,366                 0.57                 96.79
Italy                            13                    1,234                 0.51                 97.30
France                           14                      795                 0.33                 97.63
Australia                        15                      666                 0.28                 97.91
South Korea                      16                      584                 0.24                 98.15
the Netherlands                  17                      567                 0.24                 98.38
Taiwan                           18                      530                 0.22                 98.61
Canada                           19                      505                 0.21                 98.81
Switzerland                      20                      471                 0.20                 99.01
Indonesia                        21                      324                 0.13                 99.14
Germany                          22                      303                 0.13                 99.27
Spain                            23                      277                 0.12                 99.39
Malawi                           24                      252                 0.10                 99.49
Mozambique                       25                      246                 0.10                 99.59
India                            26                      227                 0.09                 99.69
Russia                           27                      194                 0.08                 99.77
Hong Kong                        28                      135                 0.06                 99.82
the United Arab Emirates         29                       91                 0.04                 99.86
Luxembourg                       30                       88                 0.04                 99.90
Other                            31                      246                 0.10                100.00
Total                                                240,789               100.00                100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                          ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                            Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia        10

                   Beverages and Tobacco Exports from Indonesia, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Singapore                         1                   76,508                20.99                 20.99
Malaysia                          2                   69,889                19.18                 40.17
Germany                           3                   41,842                11.48                 51.65
Belgium                           4                   32,783                 9.00                 60.65
the United States                 5                   29,514                 8.10                 68.75
Denmark                           6                   18,074                 4.96                 73.70
Philippines                       7                   17,280                 4.74                 78.45
Russia                            8                   17,042                 4.68                 83.12
the Netherlands                   9                   13,981                 3.84                 86.96
Spain                            10                    9,646                 2.65                 89.61
Switzerland                      11                    8,308                 2.28                 91.89
Ukraine                          12                    5,074                 1.39                 93.28
Thailand                         13                    4,911                 1.35                 94.62
Australia                        14                    3,151                 0.86                 95.49
the United Kingdom               15                    2,492                 0.68                 96.17
France                           16                    2,469                 0.68                 96.85
Japan                            17                    2,043                 0.56                 97.41
Belarus                          18                    1,952                 0.54                 97.95
Saudi Arabia                     19                    1,193                 0.33                 98.27
Hong Kong                        20                    1,097                 0.30                 98.58
Austria                          21                    1,038                 0.28                 98.86
Turkey                           22                    1,005                 0.28                 99.14
Norway                           23                      656                 0.18                 99.32
Oman                             24                      555                 0.15                 99.47
India                            25                      369                 0.10                 99.57
Indonesia                        26                      324                 0.09                 99.66
Poland                           27                      311                 0.09                 99.74
Taiwan                           28                      163                 0.04                 99.79
Italy                            29                      150                 0.04                 99.83
South Korea                      30                      149                 0.04                 99.87
Other                            31                      472                 0.13                100.00
Total                                                364,441               100.00                100.00
   Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                          ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                            Beverages and Tobacco in Indonesia        11

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