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The 2011 Import and Export Market for Beverages and Tobacco in France

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On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on beverages and tobacco in France face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying beverages and tobacco to France? How important is France compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of beverages and tobacco vary from one country of origin to another in France? On the supply side, France also exports beverages and tobacco. Which countries receive the most exports from France? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for beverages and tobacco in France. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for beverages and tobacco for those countries serving France via exports, or supplying from France via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where France fits into the world market for imported and exported beverages and tobacco. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for France in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a

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									   The 2011 Import and Export
    Market for Beverages and
        Tobacco in France




                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)




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                                                                                              iii


                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                                              Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                       10
2     FRANCE AND THE WORLD MARKET                        12
    2.1     Imports in France in 2011                    12
    2.2     Exports from France in 2011                  13
3     IMPORTS IN FRANCE                                  14
    3.1      Africa                                      14
       3.1.1   Algeria                                   14
       3.1.2   Cameroon                                  14
       3.1.3   Congo (formerly Zaire)                    15
       3.1.4   Cote d'Ivoire                             15
       3.1.5   Egypt                                     16
       3.1.6   Kenya                                     17
       3.1.7   Madagascar                                17
       3.1.8   Malawi                                    18
       3.1.9   Mauritius                                 19
       3.1.10 Morocco                                    19
       3.1.11 Mozambique                                 20
       3.1.12 Niger                                      20
       3.1.13 Sierra Leone                               21
       3.1.14 South Africa                               22
       3.1.15 Tanzania                                   23
       3.1.16 Togo                                       24
       3.1.17 Tunisia                                    24
       3.1.18 Uganda                                     25
       3.1.19 Zambia                                     26
       3.1.20 Zimbabwe                                   27
    3.2      Asia                                        28
       3.2.1   Bangladesh                                28
       3.2.2   China                                     29
       3.2.3   Hong Kong                                 30
       3.2.4   India                                     31
       3.2.5   Indonesia                                 32
       3.2.6   Japan                                     33
       3.2.7   Malaysia                                  34
       3.2.8   Philippines                               35
       3.2.9   Singapore                                 36
       3.2.10 South Korea                                37
       3.2.11 Sri Lanka                                  38
       3.2.12 Taiwan                                     39
       3.2.13 Thailand                                   40
       3.2.14 Vietnam                                    41
    3.3      Europe                                      42
       3.3.1   Albania                                   42
       3.3.2   Andorra                                   42
       3.3.3   Austria                                   43
       3.3.4   Belgium                                   44
       3.3.5   Bulgaria                                  45
       3.3.6   Croatia                                   46
       3.3.7   Cyprus                                    47


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                                               Contents        vi

     3.3.8   Czech Republic                               48
     3.3.9   Denmark                                      49
     3.3.10 France                                        50
     3.3.11 Georgia                                       51
     3.3.12 Germany                                       52
     3.3.13 Greece                                        53
     3.3.14 Hungary                                       54
     3.3.15 Ireland                                       55
     3.3.16 Italy                                         56
     3.3.17 Kazakhstan                                    57
     3.3.18 Lithuania                                     58
     3.3.19 Luxembourg                                    59
     3.3.20 Macedonia                                     60
     3.3.21 Malta                                         61
     3.3.22 Norway                                        62
     3.3.23 Poland                                        63
     3.3.24 Portugal                                      64
     3.3.25 Russia                                        65
     3.3.26 Serbia and Montenegro                         66
     3.3.27 Slovakia                                      67
     3.3.28 Slovenia                                      68
     3.3.29 Spain                                         69
     3.3.30 Sweden                                        70
     3.3.31 Switzerland                                   71
     3.3.32 the Netherlands                               72
     3.3.33 the United Kingdom                            73
     3.3.34 Ukraine                                       74
  3.4      Latin America                                  75
     3.4.1   Argentina                                    75
     3.4.2   Brazil                                       76
     3.4.3   Chile                                        77
     3.4.4   Colombia                                     78
     3.4.5   Costa Rica                                   79
     3.4.6   Ecuador                                      80
     3.4.7   Guatemala                                    81
     3.4.8   Guyana                                       82
     3.4.9   Honduras                                     83
     3.4.10 Mexico                                        84
     3.4.11 Paraguay                                      85
     3.4.12 Peru                                          86
     3.4.13 Suriname                                      86
     3.4.14 Uruguay                                       87
     3.4.15 Venezuela                                     88
  3.5      North America & the Caribbean                  89
     3.5.1   Barbados                                     89
     3.5.2   Canada                                       90
     3.5.3   Cuba                                         91
     3.5.4   Dominica                                     92
     3.5.5   Dominican Republic                           93
     3.5.6   Jamaica                                      94
     3.5.7   the Bahamas                                  95
     3.5.8   the Netherlands Antilles                     96
     3.5.9   the United States                            97


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                                              Contents         vii

       3.5.10 Trinidad and Tobago                         98
    3.6      Oceana                                       99
       3.6.1    Australia                                 99
       3.6.2    New Zealand                              100
    3.7      the Middle East                             101
       3.7.1    Armenia                                  101
       3.7.2    Iran                                     102
       3.7.3    Israel                                   103
       3.7.4    Lebanon                                  104
       3.7.5    Pakistan                                 105
       3.7.6    Saudi Arabia                             106
       3.7.7    Syrian Arab Republic                     107
       3.7.8    Turkey                                   108
       3.7.9    Uzbekistan                               109
4     EXPORTS FROM FRANCE                                110
    4.1      Africa                                      110
       4.1.1   Benin                                     110
       4.1.2   Cameroon                                  111
       4.1.3   Central African Republic                  112
       4.1.4   Malawi                                    112
       4.1.5   Mauritius                                 113
       4.1.6   Morocco                                   114
       4.1.7   Mozambique                                115
       4.1.8   Senegal                                   116
       4.1.9   South Africa                              117
       4.1.10 Tanzania                                   118
       4.1.11 the Gambia                                 119
       4.1.12 Togo                                       120
       4.1.13 Uganda                                     121
    4.2      Asia                                        122
       4.2.1   China                                     122
       4.2.2   Hong Kong                                 123
       4.2.3   India                                     124
       4.2.4   Indonesia                                 125
       4.2.5   Japan                                     126
       4.2.6   Malaysia                                  127
       4.2.7   Maldives                                  128
       4.2.8   Mongolia                                  129
       4.2.9   Philippines                               130
       4.2.10 Seychelles                                 131
       4.2.11 Singapore                                  132
       4.2.12 South Korea                                133
       4.2.13 Taiwan                                     134
       4.2.14 Thailand                                   135
    4.3      Europe                                      136
       4.3.1   Albania                                   136
       4.3.2   Austria                                   137
       4.3.3   Belarus                                   138
       4.3.4   Belgium                                   139
       4.3.5   Bosnia and Herzegovina                    140
       4.3.6   Bulgaria                                  141
       4.3.7   Croatia                                   142


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                                               Contents         viii

     4.3.8   Cyprus                                       143
     4.3.9   Denmark                                      144
     4.3.10 Estonia                                       145
     4.3.11 Finland                                       146
     4.3.12 France                                        147
     4.3.13 Georgia                                       148
     4.3.14 Germany                                       149
     4.3.15 Greece                                        150
     4.3.16 Hungary                                       151
     4.3.17 Iceland                                       152
     4.3.18 Ireland                                       153
     4.3.19 Italy                                         154
     4.3.20 Latvia                                        155
     4.3.21 Lithuania                                     156
     4.3.22 Luxembourg                                    157
     4.3.23 Macedonia                                     158
     4.3.24 Malta                                         159
     4.3.25 Moldova                                       160
     4.3.26 Norway                                        161
     4.3.27 Poland                                        162
     4.3.28 Romania                                       163
     4.3.29 Russia                                        164
     4.3.30 Slovakia                                      165
     4.3.31 Slovenia                                      166
     4.3.32 Spain                                         167
     4.3.33 Sweden                                        168
     4.3.34 Switzerland                                   169
     4.3.35 the Netherlands                               170
     4.3.36 the United Kingdom                            171
     4.3.37 Ukraine                                       172
  4.4      Latin America                                  173
     4.4.1   Argentina                                    173
     4.4.2   Brazil                                       174
     4.4.3   Colombia                                     175
     4.4.4   Costa Rica                                   176
     4.4.5   Ecuador                                      177
     4.4.6   Guatemala                                    178
     4.4.7   Guyana                                       179
     4.4.8   Mexico                                       180
     4.4.9   Nicaragua                                    181
     4.4.10 Panama                                        182
     4.4.11 Peru                                          183
  4.5      North America & the Caribbean                  184
     4.5.1   Aruba                                        184
     4.5.2   Canada                                       185
     4.5.3   Dominica                                     186
     4.5.4   Montserrat                                   186
     4.5.5   the United States                            187
     4.5.6   Trinidad and Tobago                          188
  4.6      Oceana                                         189
     4.6.1   Australia                                    189
     4.6.2   Fiji                                         190
     4.6.3   New Caledonia                                191


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                                                            Contents         ix

       4.6.4    New Zealand                                            192
    4.7      the Middle East                                           193
       4.7.1    Armenia                                                193
       4.7.2    Azerbaijan                                             194
       4.7.3    Bahrain                                                195
       4.7.4    Iran                                                   196
       4.7.5    Israel                                                 197
       4.7.6    Jordan                                                 198
       4.7.7    Kyrgyzstan                                             199
       4.7.8    Oman                                                   200
       4.7.9    Pakistan                                               201
       4.7.10 Qatar                                                    202
       4.7.11 Saudi Arabia                                             203
       4.7.12 Turkey                                                   204
       4.7.13 Yemen                                                    205
5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 206
    5.1     Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  206
    5.2     ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  207




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                                                         Beverages and Tobacco in France      10


1      INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on beverages and tobacco in
France face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying beverages and tobacco to
France? How important is France compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional
market? How much do the imports of beverages and tobacco vary from one country of origin to
another in France? On the supply side, France also exports beverages and tobacco. Which
countries receive the most exports from France? How are these exports concentrated across
buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for beverages and tobacco in France.
With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view.
Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the
fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate
the market for beverages and tobacco for those countries serving France via exports, or supplying
from France via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical
indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where France fits into the world market for
imported and exported beverages and tobacco. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for France in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates
across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each
country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of
competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares
by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares
lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and
world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value
of each market and the share that France is likely to receive this year. From these figures,
rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize France compared to other major country
markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined
with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of beverages and tobacco,
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving France. A
“major” market is defined as a country where Fra
								
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