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									Leveraging the Power of
 High-Speed Networks

Rick Broadhead, MBA




    June 14, 2004
      According to one
estimate, telecommunications
 technology will experience
   more change in the next
    5 years than occurred
during the last 95 combined!
 Graham T.T. Molitor, Public Policy Forecasting, Inc
    Innovation in the Next Decade
     Will Be Driven by Broadband
 Wireless networks
 Nanotechnology

 Biotechnology

 Distributed computing

 Collaboration technologies

 E-Learning
 Popsicles were discovered in
     the early 1900s when
  11-year-old Frank Epperson
accidentally left a concoction of
    soda powder and water
   outside one night, with a
   stick inside the mixture.
    The microwave oven
 was invented in the 1940s
  when a researcher named
   Percy Spencer noticed
      that a radar tube in
 his laboratory was melting
a chocolate bar in his pocket
    Looking Back Over the Past
             Decade
 The past was about connecting
  people and organizations to the
  Internet
 The future is about connecting

  people and organizations to each
  other
“Think about computational research
 in part as being like the Indianapolis
     500. It's a combination of two
 things, a fast car and a smart driver.
      Ultimately the only thing that
   matters is who crosses the finish
                line first.”

Jonathan Schaeffer, Computer Scientist, University of Alberta
Trends Shaping the Future
    of R&E In Canada
(1) Access to Supercomputers

The U.S. Department of Energy
  is building a supercomputer
called ASCI Purple that will be
capable of simulating a nuclear
  explosion. It will operate at
         100 teraflops.
    How Long Would This
Simulation Have Taken in 1974?



        60,000 years!



                        Source: BusinessWeek
 2002 Was a Wake-Up Call for
      the United States

That year, Japan announced that it
 had built a 40 teraflop computer
   called the Earth Simulator -
  more powerful than the top 20
  U.S. supercomputers combined
   The United States is Fighting
              Back

  Oak Ridge National Laboratory in
Tennessee is building a supercomputer
 that will be capable of 100 teraflops
   by 2006, 350 teraflops by 2007.
Supercomputers Are the Key to
      Future Innovation
 “Many of the truly great discoveries
of the future are going to be made with
      supercomputers like the one
         we are building here.”
              Thomas Zacharia,
Associate Director for Computational Sciences
                  Oak Ridge
Countries with the Most
  Supercomputers*
   United States            248
   Germany                  36
   Great Britain            33
   Italy                    17
   France                   16
   South Korea              14
   Saudi Arabia             9
   China                    9
   Canada                   7
   Netherlands              7

       Source: Top500.org     *as of Nov. 2003
  It’s Important to Visualize
Tomorrow’s Research Needs


    Many scientists
   complain that their
 research needs aren’t
    well understood
 The latest virtual heart models reflect
the activities of up to 12 million virtual
  cardiac cells, yet a real heart has a
               billion cells.

     Some of the existing computer
 models are so complicated that it takes
eight hours of a supercomputer’s time to
      simulate a single heartbeat!
                         Source: MIT Technology Review
      A Stunning Statistic


 By 2020, brain disease will cause
   more deaths and disability in
Canada than both heart disease and
            cancer.


                        Source: Vancouver Sun
(2) Interdisciplinary Collaboration


 Future breakthroughs in science
will depend on an interdisciplinary
       approach to research
   The Notion of Research is
          Changing

    At Duke University, nearly
every department in the university
  from business to engineering is
     working on collaborative
      research projects with
        other departments
“Duke is a young university that isn't caught in
  its own traditions. If Duke has a tradition,
          it is to be bold, even fearless,
       in trying the new, while also doing
      its best to appreciate and reward the
                   tried-and-true.”

            Cathy Davidson, Vice Provost for
          Interdisciplinary Studies (Source: U-Wire)
       Another Example

The University of Michigan has spent
  more than $100 million to build
  a Life Sciences Institute that has
   been described as “the hottest
       experiment in science.”

                      -Detroit Free Press
        (3) Global Competition

 In 2003, a record number of patents
  issued issued by the U.S. patent office
  listed at least one non-U.S. citizen as a
  co-inventor.
 Beginning this year, foreign entities will

  likely account for the majority of U.S.
  patent filings

                            Source: MIT Technology Review
              The Asian Threat

   Researchers in Japan, Taiwan and
    South Korea now account for more than
    one-quarter of all U.S. industrial patents
    granted each year.

   Between 1980 and 2003, Japan’s share
    of U.S. industrial patents increased from
    12 to 21 percent
                            Source: CHI Research/New York Times
              How Far Behind Are We?


       It is estimated that many U.S.
      researchers have 10 to 100 times
         less supercomputing power
      than their Japanese counterparts

Source: Horst D. Simon/National Energy Research Scientific Computer Center (BusinessWeek)
     The United States is Falling
              Behind

By 2006, Japan’s Institute of Physical &
Chemical Research is expected to have
 a computer capable of operating at a
  petaflop - 1,000 trillion operations
              a second.
       “We stand at a pivotal moment. For
   all our past successes, there are disturbing
          signs that America's dominant
position in the scientific world is being shaken.”

     U.S. Senator Tom Daschle in 2004, speaking for the
        Association for the Advancement of Science
       (4) Outsourcing R&D


  High-speed computer networks
      will be needed to support
the increasing trend of “offshoring”
      research and development
          Some Facts About India

   Fifteen of the world's automobile
    manufacturers source parts from India - an
    industry that will be valued at $15 billion by
    2009
   India is the largest manufacturer of
    motorcycles in the world.
   100 of the Fortune 500 have operations in
    India vs. just 33 in China
                         Source: Mike Moore/Australian Financial Review
    Some Facts About India con’t

 India has the fourth-largest pharmaceutical
  industry in the world
 There are more IT engineers in India than in

  Silicon Valley
 The outsourcing industry in India is growing

  by 500 people a day
 30% of the software for Motorola’s latest

  phones is written in India
                   Source: Australian Financial Review/New York Times
        (5) Grid Computing



“One of the most fundamental shifts in
      the history of computing”
      Why is Grid Computing
            Attractive?
 No single point of failure
 Lower costs

 Vastly shorter time frames for R&D
                 Grid.org

 A global network of over 2.5 million
  personal and business computers whose
  computing power has been donated by
  Internet users
 The grid has a peak power of over 23

  petaflops - 23 times the power of the top
  ten supercomputers combined!
                              Source: Reuters/Grid.org
    Smallpox Research Grid Project

   A search for smallpox drugs using the
    grid reduced Oxford University's
    library of 35 million potential drug
    molecules to just 45 in five months
 North Carolina Will Have One of
   the First State-Wide Grids


It is estimated that grid computing will give a
    $10 billion economic boost to the state's
       economy through 2010, leading to
            an additional 24,000 jobs


                            Source: InformationWeek
     Not to Be Outdone...


The United States is building their
 own grid - the TeraGrid - with a
peak performance of 20 teraflops
            (6) Idle Data

          The total holdings of the
 National Center for Atmospheric Research
have reached one petabyte in size, roughly
       100 times the contents of the
   Library of Congress! By next year,
        it will total two petabytes!


                 Source: The Atlanta Journal - Constitution
      (7) Nanotechnology


    By 2015, the global market
for nanotech-based products will
   reach $1 trillion and employ
 and 2 million people worldwide.


                  Source: Harvard Business Review
         A Deadline Looms!

  By 2020, transistors are expected to
  become the size of individual atoms,
  making it impossible to shrink them
              any further.

This will lead to a massive technological
      roadblock that will impede
                innovation.
           (8) Biotechnology

 Canada has the second-highest number of
  biotech firms in the world
 There are a record 190 biotech products

  on the market and another 300 are in
  Phase III clinical trials in the U.S. alone


               Source: Intellectual Property Magazine/Food & Drug Letter
      Why is Biotech Important?

 Patents will soon be expiring on many
  blockbuster drugs
 $82 billion in sales will disappear from big

  pharma companies by 2007




                                     Source: New Scientist
   (9) National Security


   Biodefense research
  and cyberinfrastructure
   protection are areas
woefully in need of attention
         in Canada
  The La Jolla Institute for Allergy
      and Immunology recently
   landed a seven-year, $25 million
  contract with the U.S. government
      to create a public database
for scientists. It will be used to help
   fight infectious diseases such as
          SARS and smallpox.
                      Source: San Diego Business Journal
      (10) Education


It’s no longer enough just
 to have Internet access
     in the classroom!
At a recent networking event
    hosted by Internet2 in
   Michigan, participants
 were shown how educators
    could use high-speed
   networking to receive a
 live presentation from the
    wreck of the Titanic.
What Two People Have Had the
    Biggest Impact on the
Telecommunications Industry?


    Harry Tuttle and
    Thomas Carter
Did you know that it was once
  illegal in the United States
       to attach shoulder
   rests or any other device
   to your telephone without
      permission from the
       phone company?
       Harry Tuttle’s Story

        In 1921, Harry Tuttle
      invented a plastic device
called the “Hush-a-Phone” that was
   designed to block background
        noise during a phone
           conversation.
          Tuttle’s Victory


   In 1956 the FCC ruled that
Hush-a-Phone wasn’t detrimental to
    the public phone network.
       The Carterfone

       During the 1940s,
    Tom Carter invented a
 device called the Carterfone
that allowed people on mobile
  radios to communicate with
 people on regular telephones.
    1968: The Most Significant
    Ruling in Telecom History

        The FCC ruled in
favour of the Carterfone in 1968,
    ushering in a new era in
      telecommunications
    “Without the Carterfone
   decision, the general public
   wouldn’t have been able to
  connect their computers and
modems to the network, and it is
likely that the Internet wouldn’t
   have been able to develop”
Federal Communications Commission, 1999
What Can We Learn from Harry
 Tuttle and Thomas Carter?


Don’t stifle innovation - support
          it and fund it
   in every way possible.
       Anything Is Possible!

     “At eight years, the Web is the
    same age color TV was when it
       turned profitable in 1962.
     And when color sets really got
TV rolling, we all know what happened:
    New industries sprouted from it
that were a complete and utter surprise.”
                  BusinessWeek, May 12, 2003
  Innovation
and Economic
   Strength
 Depend on
 High-Speed
 Networking
           “Our economic future is
      inextricably linked to our ability to
       come up with more technological
     breakthroughs that equal the Internet
                 in magnitude.

             It was a succession of
innovations -- including electricity, telephones,
   radio, automobiles, and antiboitics, that
           revolutionized life in the
        first half of the 20th century.”
   “By contrast, the drought of economically
significant innovations in the 1970s helped pull
down growth. It is no coincidence that the rise
      of the Internet in the 1990s coincided
   with the biggest rise in household incomes,
  and the biggest drop in poverty, in 30 years.

    Going forward, such technology-driven
      growth is essential if we are not to
           drown in our problems.”
           In Conclusion...



“We are more limited by our imaginations
      than we are the technology.”
          Contacting Me

 By Telephone: (416) 929-0516
 By Fax: (416) 927-8732
 By E-Mail:
  rickb@rickbroadhead.com
 Web Site:
  http://www.rickbroadhead.com

								
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