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Buffett, The Wal-Mart Shopper


									Buffett, The Wal-Mart Shopper
With the stock in the dumps, it may offer him greater upside than Target
When fans and followers descend on Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA ) annual meeting on May 5, they'll be eager to hear the homespun business wisdom and folksy investment advice of Chairman Warren Buffett.

众多的崇拜者和追随者齐聚奥马哈,参加于 5 月 5 日举行的伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的 股东年会。他们急切地想聆听该公司董事会主席沃伦•巴菲特那朴素的商业智慧和通俗的投资建议。

One thing they probably won't hear during his nearly six-hour Q&A with shareholders: the nitty-gritty on why he likes Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT ) more than rival(1w)1 discounter Target Corp. (TGT )

在与股东进行的长达 6 小时的问答活动中,有一件事情可能是大家不会听他提起的,那就是他看好沃尔玛更胜于其 竞争对手——折扣零售商 Target 公司的真正原因。

Buffett, who rarely reveals much about his investment moves(2m)1 in public, started building a big position in Wal-Mart back in 2005, according to filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

证券交易委员会的文件显示,极少在公开场合大谈其投资举动的巴菲特于 2005 年开始大量买进沃尔玛的股票。
Two years later, Berkshire owns some 19.9 million shares, roughly $960 million worth, making it one of the insurer's largest holdings.

两年后,伯克希尔公司已持有沃尔玛 1990 万股股票,价值约 9.6 亿美元,是这家保险公司投资最大的股票之一。
Target first popped up in the portfolio about a year ago, a stake some speculate was bought by Berkshire's other bargain hunter, Lou Simpson, chief investment officer at the GEICO car insurance subsidiary.

Target 公司的股票第一次出现在其投资组合中是一年前的事情, 有些人猜测这只股票是伯克希尔公司的另一位投资 高手卢•辛普森买入的。
But in the third quarter of 2006, Berkshire held fewer than 1 million shares, and by the end of the year the investment had disappeared from the company's financial reports.

辛普森是公司旗下的盖克汽车保险公司 (GEICO) 的首席投资官。 但到 2006 年第三季度, 伯克希尔公司持有的 Target 公司股票已减少到 100 万股,到年底,这项投资已从公司的财务报表上消失了。
Buffet watchers think price may have been a big factor.

Target's stock got whacked(3w)2 in the middle of last year, dropping(4m)2 17% from its May high to 46 by July.

Target 公司的股票在去年年中遭遇重创,从 5 月份的高点下挫了 17%,到 7 月份已下滑至 46 美元。
Amid macro concerns that consumers had gotten tighter with their wallets, investors worried that the retailer had spent too much on new distribution centers and had become overly reliant on its credit-card business.

在认为消费者已捂紧钱包、 对宏观经济形势充满忧虑之余, 投资者还担心这家零售商在新的分销中心上的投资过大, 并且过于依赖其信用卡业务。
But the stock has bounced back(5m)3 to 60. At that price, Target trades for roughly 18.5 times trailing earnings, only modestly less than peers and the Standard & Poor's (MHP ) 500-stock index.

但其股价已回弹至 60 美元,在此价格上,Target 公司股票的市盈率大约是 18.5,仅仅稍逊于同类公司和标准普尔

500 股指。
"That's a very fine return," says Bill Dreher, a retail analyst for Deutsche Bank (DB ). "[Even] if you hit your return benchmarks sooner than expected, you still have to be true to your own internal valuations."

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一位零售行业分析师比尔•德雷尔说:“这个回报是非常不错的。即使你比预期更 早地达到了基准收益率,你的股价仍然要遵从于公司的内在价值。”
But for Buffett and others who love to buy brand names at bargain prices, a tarnished Wal-Mart may be a better match.

但对巴菲特及其他热衷于以较低的价格买入知名公司股票的投资专家而言,已失去往日光彩的沃尔玛更合他们的心 意。
After all, value investors usually show up when a company is facing its darkest days.

The stock has been a dog, falling(6m)4 17%, to 48, over the past five years as sales have slipped(7m)5 and operating costs have ballooned.

在过去的 5 年间,由于销售额的下滑和运营成本的快速增加,沃尔玛的股票已大不如前,下滑 17% 至每股 48 美元。
In 2006 same-store sales in its U.S. operations gained a mere 1.6%, its worst showing ever.

2006 年其美国业务的同店销售额只增加了 1.6%,这是它有史以来的最差表现。
As a result, Wal-Mart now sells for 16.6 times earnings, the cheapest it has been in more than a decade.

因此,沃尔玛的股票市盈率目前仅为 16.6,也是十多年来公司股价最低的时候。
"Right off the bat, we like Wal-Mart's valuation better [than Target's]," says Whitney Tilson, co-portfolio manager of the $22 million Tilson Focus Fund, who counts Wal-Mart among his top 10 stock holdings.

市值达 2200 万美元的 Tilson Focus 基金的投资组合共同经理惠特尼•泰尔森说:“毫无疑问,(相对于 Target) 我们更看好沃尔玛。”他将沃尔玛的股票列为所持有的十大股票之一。
Certainly, Target has the edge in the growth(8p)1 department.

当然,Target 在成长前景方面更具优势。
With just 1,502 stores, vs. Wal-Mart's 6,930, it still has plenty of room(9c)2 to grow(25p)2, especially in strong domestic markets such as the mid-Atlantic and New England.

沃尔玛已开店 6930 家, Target 仅拥有 1502 家店, 而 它仍有巨大的成长空间, 特别是在中大西洋地区 (mid-Atlantic) 和新英格兰州等消费能力很强的国内市场。
To boost(10m)6 traffic in existing stores, Target has been beefing up its assortment of food, electronics, and private-label products.

为了增加现有店铺的客流量,Target 公司在不断地丰富其销售的食品、电子产品和自有品牌产品。
Dreher predicts earnings will rise(11m)7 14% to 16% a year through 2012.

德雷尔预测,2012 年之前公司收益将年增 14%到 16%。
After the stock's recent runup, though, much of those expectations are already baked into the price.

But while many question whether Wal-Mart can get growth(12p)3 going again, contrarians think it has the markings of a turnaround play, a very Buffett-like quality. 2

虽然许多人对沃尔玛能否重振雄风心怀疑虑,持相反观点的人却认为沃尔玛注定会摆脱困境,这一点和巴菲特非常 相似。
There's little thought that Wal-Mart will return to its glory days, but those who are bullish figure the company can still be a steady performer(13g)1.

They point to recent moves management is making to get shoppers back in the doors:

The big-box retailer has been aggressively(14w)3 remodeling stores, changing its selection in high-margin categories such as consumer electronics, and tweaking the direction of women's apparel.

这家巨型零售公司正在积极地对店铺进行整改,并将更新消费者电子产品等利润较高的产品门类中所出售的产品, 使店内的女性服装面貌一新,
It's also trying to keep a lid on costs by pushing more of its manufacturing offshore, reducing inventory, and reining in store openings.

Management plans to increase square footage this year by 7.5%, a slowdown(15m)9 from 2006.

管理层计划今年将每平方英尺的销售额提高 7.5%,2006 年该指标的增速已有所减缓。
Buffett may also find Wal-Mart's international business appealing.

In recent years the Oracle of Omaha has been bearish on the U.S. dollar, figuring the ballooning current-account deficit stateside would favor other countries.

最近几年,这位有着“奥马哈圣人”之誉的人一直看空美元,他认为美国越滚越大的经常项目赤字将对其他国家有 利。
But he has been moving away(16m)10 from trading currencies to make that bet, saying it's a pricier strategy(17w)4 these days. Instead, he has been looking to buy companies and stocks that make a significant portion of their money overseas.

但他说如今买卖货币并不划算,所以他未在货币交易中下注,而是把眼光放在了那些大部分利润来自于海外的公司 和公司股票上。
At last year's annual gathering, Buffett announced a $5 billion purchase of Israeli-based Iscar Metalworking.

在去年的年会上,巴菲特宣布以 50 亿美元的价格收购以色列的伊斯卡金属制品公司(Iscar Metalworking)。
Berkshire also owns stakes in oil producer PetroChina (PIR ) Co. and British supermarket giant Tesco (TSCDY ) PLC.

此外,伯克希尔公司还持有石油生产商中国石油和英国超市巨头 Tesco 公司的股票。

Wal-Mart's brand translates better abroad than Target's; the company generates 22% of net sales from its international business, compared with zero for Target.

在国外,沃尔玛要比 Target 有名,前者 22%的净收入来自于其国际业务,后者则为零。


Admittedly, Wal-Mart's results have been mixed.

It has a stronghold in Canada, Mexico, and Britain and is also making a play in fast-growing areas such as China, Latin America, and South America.

Yet the company had to exit(18c)1 the ultracompetitive(26g)3 South Korean and German markets, where it had a tough time against(19w)5 local players(20g)2.

Still, Buffet may see that exposure largely as a strength.

International sales should grow 15% a year, vs. 9% stateside, says Deutsche Bank's Dreher.

德意志银行的德雷尔指出,沃尔玛的海外销售额将年增 15%,而国内业务销售额的增长仅为 9%。
"The pieces are in place for Wal-Mart to really appreciate," says David Chalupnik, head(21h)2 of equities at First American Funds in Minneapolis, which owns some 2 million shares of Wal-Mart across its retail and institutional portfolios.

位于明尼阿波列斯的 First American Funds 的证券业务负责人大卫•查卢普尼克说:“沃尔玛已万事俱备,只等股 价上扬了。” First American Funds 通过其零售业务和机构投资者客户持有 200 万股沃尔玛股票。
Portfolio manager Tilson can't predict exactly when things will click at Wal-Mart, but he figures earnings will hit(22w) 6$4 to $5 a share over the next two to five years. Assigning a multiple of 20 to 25 to those profits—in line with peers today—Tilson calculates the stock could head(23h)1 north of 80.

投资组合经理泰尔森无法准确预测沃尔玛的股价何时会出现转机,但他估计,在未来 2 到 5 年里,沃尔玛的每股收 益将达到 4 至 5 美元,而沃尔玛未来的股价至少可达 80 美元。
Of course, Buffett may just be making up for past mistakes.

He has long said he regrets not amassing a big stake in Wal-Mart when the stock looked cheap in the 1990s.

很早以前他就说过,很后悔没在上世纪 90 年代沃尔玛的股票还相当便宜的时候大量买进。
Back then, he scooped up 5 million shares. But the stock zoomed ahead(24m) 11before he had a chance to take a full position—an "error of omission" that he estimates cost Berkshire as much as $8 billion.

当时他仅购入了 500 万股,待到他想全力介入的时候,沃尔玛的股价已今非昔比了。他估计,这一“失误”使伯克 希尔公司少赚了 80 亿美元。
With Wal-Mart trading at a lower price-earnings ratio now, Buffett may think the time is right to buy what he calls "the retailing machine of all time."

现在正值这家被他称为“有史以来最伟大的零售机器”的公司的股票市盈率低迷之时,巴菲特可能会认为目前正是 大举介入的最佳时机。

By Elizabeth Woyke


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