Forecasting Technology in Telcom - PowerPoint by dhe43733

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									                              Commercial SATCOM
                           Capacity & Trends 2006 – 2015

                              Navy SATCOM Users Workshop
                                                      June 6, 2007




Futron Corporation • 7315 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 900W • Bethesda, Maryland 20814-3202
                                                                                         Results You Can Trust
Phone 301-913-9372 • Fax 301-913-9475 • http://www.futron.com
                                                           About Futron
• Futron is a technology management consulting firm
  specializing in the aerospace sector.
• Industry leaders, DoD and NASA use Futron’s
  knowledge and expertise to help make critical decisions.
• In business since 1986, Futron has a staff of
  approximately 100 professionals.




                Space &       Aerospace         Risk
                Telecom        Safety &      Management
                             Dependability

              Bethesda, MD   Bethesda, MD    Houston, TX


                                                   Results You Can Trust   • 2
                         Space & Telecommunications Division
• Futron’s Space & Telecommunications Division provides business and
  technology analysis services to space-related enterprises.
• The Division is staffed by a world-class team of some 15 market and policy
  analysts, economists, and engineers. The Futron staff maintains vast space
  industry expertise and personal contact networks.
• Futron provides an independent viewpoint, which will result in a highly
  credible and valid end product free of program, company and personal
  conflicts of interest.
• Futron has developed leading-edge, proprietary methodologies, working
  from:
       Demand-based global forecasting capability
       Extensive in-house resources/databases and industry contacts
       Extensive corporate experience, with commercial and government clients



                                                          Results You Can Trust   • 3
                                         What We Do


          Services                  Industry Specialties

Market Analysis & Forecasting        Satellite Services

Sales & Business Development    Satellite and Launch Vehicle
          Support                      Manufacturing

   Technology Assessments         Emerging Technologies




                                    Results You Can Trust   • 4
                                 Overview of Current FSS Supply Baseline
                                                         by Band/Region
               3000


                                      Ka-band
               2500
                                      Ku-Band
                                      C-band
               2000
36 MHz TEs




               1500



               1000



                500



                  0
                       USNORTHCOM USSOUTHCOM    USEUCOM   USCENTCOM    USPACOM
             Ka-band      769          0          15          0           90
             Ku-Band      1138        306        1553        307         1332
             C-band       853         427         763        185         1093
                                                             Results You Can Trust   • 5
                                                            Annual Reductions in C-, Ku-, and Ka-
                                                              Band Capacity due to Satellite EOL
                                              2007   2008    2009   2010   2011   2012     2013    2014    2015
                                         0

                                       -100
Total Loss in Capacity (36 MHz TEs)




                                       -200

                                       -300

                                       -400

                                       -500

                                       -600

                                       -700

                                       -800

                                       -900

                                      -1000
                                                                                         Results You Can Trust    • 6
                            Global Capacity Coming Online – Satellites
                                  Ordered and Expected Replacements
              1600


              1400


              1200

                                                                                 Ka-Band
              1000                                                               Ku-Band
36 MHz. TEs




                                                                                 C-band
               800


               600


               400


               200


                 0
                     2007    2008   2009   2010   2011   2012      2013   2014     2015
        Ka-Band      524      64    36      0      0      0         17      0       0
        Ku-Band      538      449   416    214    154    157       480     184     113
        C-band       378      167   151    156    100    60        249     144      89
                                                                Results You Can Trust     • 7
                          Net Annual Transponder Supply Change -
                               Additions and Reductions by Region
             500

             400

             300

             200
36 MHz TEs




             100

               0

             -100

             -200

             -300
                  2007  2008   2009  2010    2011  2012   2013  2014   2015
               USNORTHCOM    USSOUTHCOM     USEUCOM    USCENTCOM    USPACOM

                                                       Results You Can Trust   • 8
                                                  Global Satellite Supply and Demand
                       250



                       200
Number of Satellites




                       150



                       100



                       50



                        0
                             2007   2008      2009      2010      2011      2012     2013     2014       2015
                                    Nominal Satellites in Orbit (2007-15)          Satellites Demanded

                                                                                   Results You Can Trust        • 9
                                           Transponder Oversupply or Gap
                                                               by Region

             2,500




             1,500
36 MHz TEs




               500


                      2007   2008   2009    2010    2011   2012     2013   2014    2015
              -500




             -1,500
                USNORTHCOM      USSOUTHCOM         USEUCOM   USCENTCOM         USPACOM
                                                                  Results You Can Trust   • 10
                                  Focus on USPACOM (1): Supply Net
                                      Additions and Reductions (EOL)
             200




             100
36 MHz TEs




               0




             -100




             -200
                    2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012     2013   2014    2015
                                                              Results You Can Trust   • 11
                                               Focus on USPACOM (2):
                                   Regional Transponder Oversupply/Gap
             1,500




             1,000
36 MHz TEs




              500




                0
                     2007   2008    2009   2010   2011   2012     2013   2014    2015



              -500
                                                                Results You Can Trust   • 12
                           MSS Overview – GEO System Summary
             Inmarsat      MSV         TerreStar       ICO        Thuraya        ACeS
Coverage     Global     Americas       N.America    USA +         IOR         Asia
System       10 sats    2 sats/ATC     Planned      Planned       2 sats      1 sat
             3rd I-4    2009/2010      2 sats       1 sat/ATC
             2009                      2007/2008    11/2007
Spectrum     L-band     L-band         2 GHz        2 GHz         L-band      L-band
Countries    Global     N.America      USA and      USA +         110+        Asia
authorized              to top of S.   Canada       UK MEO        countries   (not FSU)
                        America                     license
Financing    Publicly   Privately      Privately    Publicly      Privately   Privately
             traded –   held –         held –       traded -      held by     held (Asian
             Apax &     SkyTerra       Motient,     Eagle River   Mid-East    telcom
             Permira    dominant       SkyTerra &   (McCaw)       regional    companies
             <20%       owner          BCE/TMI      30%           telcos      & LMCO)
Other        ACeS &                    Satellite    MEO          Launch     Inmarsat
issues       Stratos                   delay        revival      delay      alliance
                                                              Results You Can Trust • 13
                MSS Overview - NGSO System Summary
                         Globalstar                            Iridium
Coverage       Americas, Europe, parts of Asia     Full global including polar
               and Middle East                     regions
System         40 LEO satellites plus 4 in-        66 LEO satellites
               orbit spares - 8 launches 2007      Plans in development 2007/2008
               Contract to Alcatel/Alenia for      for NEXT IP-based replacement
               48 replacement satellites           satellites for operation in 2016
               launching from 2009                 with up to 10bps
Spectrum       1610 – 1621.35 MHz                  1621.35 - 1626.5 MHz
               2483.5 – 2500 MHz
Countries      120 countries and key maritime      Some form of authorization in
authorized     passages                            “most countries”
Financing      Publicly traded – IPO 11/2006       Privately held - DoD anchor
Other issues   ATC licensed – plans unclear        Need partners as well as
               Degradation of current satellites   technology for NEXT generation
               will severely impact operations     constellation
                                                         Results You Can Trust • 14
For Questions Contact:

Andrea Maléter
Futron Corporation
amaleter@futron.com
301-347-3450 (office)
202-550-6621 (mobile)




                         Results You Can Trust   • 15

								
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