The 2011 Import and Export Market for Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread in India by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
    Market for Sweet Biscuits,
      Waffles, Wafers, and
      Gingerbread in India

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                               Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                         6
2     INDIA AND THE WORLD MARKET                                           8
    2.1        Imports in India in 2011                                    8
    2.2        Exports from India in 2011                                  9
3     IMPORTS IN INDIA                                                    10
    3.1      Asia                                                         10
       3.1.1    Bangladesh                                                10
       3.1.2    China                                                     11
       3.1.3    Indonesia                                                 12
       3.1.4    Malaysia                                                  13
       3.1.5    South Korea                                               14
    3.2      North America & the Caribbean                                15
       3.2.1    the United States                                         15
    3.3      the Middle East                                              16
       3.3.1    Oman                                                      16
       3.3.2    the United Arab Emirates                                  17
4     EXPORTS FROM INDIA                                                  18
    4.1        Africa                                                     18
       4.1.1      Cameroon                                                18
       4.1.2      Mauritius                                               19
       4.1.3      Mozambique                                              20
       4.1.4      Senegal                                                 20
       4.1.5      South Africa                                            21
       4.1.6      Tanzania                                                22
       4.1.7      the Gambia                                              22
       4.1.8      Uganda                                                  23
    4.2        Asia                                                       23
       4.2.1      Maldives                                                23
       4.2.2      Seychelles                                              24
       4.2.3      Singapore                                               25
    4.3        North America & the Caribbean                              26
       4.3.1      Canada                                                  26
       4.3.2      the United States                                       27
    4.4        Oceana                                                     28
       4.4.1      Fiji                                                    28
       4.4.2      New Zealand                                             29
    4.5        the Middle East                                            30
       4.5.1      Bahrain                                                 30
       4.5.2      Oman                                                    31
       4.5.3      Yemen                                                   32
    5.1        Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  33
    5.2        ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  34                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                     Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread in India     6

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on sweet biscuits, waffles, wafers,
and gingerbread in India face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying sweet
biscuits, waffles, wafers, and gingerbread to India? How important is India compared to others in
terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of sweet biscuits,
waffles, wafers, and gingerbread vary from one country of origin to another in India? On the
supply side, India also exports sweet biscuits, waffles, wafers, and gingerbread. Which countries
receive the most exports from India? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is
the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for sweet biscuits, waffles, wafers,
and gingerbread in India. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be
contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which
appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic
and trade models, to estimate the market for sweet biscuits, waffles, wafers, and gingerbread for
those countries serving India via exports, or supplying from India via imports. It does so for the
current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where India fits into the world market for
imported and exported sweet biscuits, waffles, wafers, and gingerbread. The total level of
imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for India in particular, is estimated using a
model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current
year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served
from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side
dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market
destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are
aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood
estimates of both the value of each market and the share that India is likely to receive this year.
From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize India compared to
other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that
can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of sweet biscuits, waffles,
wafers, and gingerbread, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of
origin serving India. A “major” market is defined as a country where India represents a
substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to India,
one can thus observe how important India is to that exporting country compared to other
countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of sweet biscuits, waffles,
wafers, and gingerbread originating from India, for each major country of destination. In doing
so, one can discover the share that India has in each major market; this share value is often used
as a measure of competitiveness for India. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage                                                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                      Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread in India     7

share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the
total picture for imports and exports of sweet biscuits, waffles, wafers, and gingerbread to and
from India to and from all other major countries in the world. "Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers,
and Gingerbread" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the
United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade
Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "sweet biscuits, waffles,
wafers, and gingerbread" is 04842 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the
following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                          ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                       Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread in India        8

2.1         IMPORTS IN INDIA IN 2011
      Imported Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread in India, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
the United Kingdom                1                       626               22.31                   22.31
Malaysia                          2                       538               19.17                   41.48
the United States                 3                       402               14.33                   55.81
the United Arab Emirates          4                       360               12.83                   68.64
Indonesia                         5                       261                9.30                   77.94
Turkey                            6                       166                5.92                   83.86
Italy                             7                       131                4.67                   88.52
Denmark                           8                        83                2.96                   91.48
Bangladesh                        9                        76                2.71                   94.19
China                            10                        69                2.46                   96.65
Oman                             11                        51                1.82                   98.47
the Netherlands                  12                        42                1.50                   99.96
South Korea                      13                         1                0.04                  100.00
Total                                                   2,806              100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                           ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                       Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread in India        9

2.2         EXPORTS FROM INDIA IN 2011
      Sweet Biscuits, Waffles, Wafers, and Gingerbread Exports from India, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Cameroon                          1                     4,257               44.02                   44.02
the United States                 2                     1,862               19.26                   63.28
South Africa                      3                       739                7.64                   70.92
Canada                            4                       527                5.45                   76.37
Yemen                             5                       476                4.92                   81.29
Oman                              6                       331                3.42                   84.72
Senegal                           7                       268                2.77                   87.49
Uganda                            8                       201                2.08                   89.57
Singapore                         9                       175                1.81                   91.38
Maldives                         10                       149                1.54                   92.92
Mozambique                       11                       142                1.47                   94.38
Bahrain                          12                       138                1.43                   95.81
the Gambia                       13                        92                0.95                   96.76
the United Kingdom               14                        80                0.83                   97.59
New Zealand                      15                        72                0.74                   98.34
Mauritius                        16                        70                0.72                   99.06
Saudi Arabia                     17                        43                0.44                   99.50
Tanzania                         18                        27                0.28                   99.78
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